In the trunk 2.6 days Decomp Info #1

Valhall!!!!!!


:applause::applause::applause::applause::applause::applause:

Analysis based on actual temps was done several months ago and appear in another thread. Perhaps we should merge them? Here is the start of the page where the actual temperatures came into play. The thread is titled In the trunk 2.6 days and was started by Bev.

As for Brian B.'s memory, pings support the shovel incident being 6/18, not 6/19.

Excellent work Val or JWG...
I'm wondering if KC would have initially put Caylee in the trunk with just her blanket on the 16th then on the day she borrowed the shovel from BB, the day she was backed into the garage...I'm wondering if maybe this is when she put Caylee's body in the trash bag then into the laundry basket thingy. What are your thoughts on this?

JWG said:

Ummmm...with all due respect, that looks like my spreadsheet. Analysis based on actual temps was done several months ago and appear in another thread. Perhaps we should merge them?

As for Brian B.'s memory, pings support the shovel incident being 6/18, not 6/19.

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My apologies JWG! I did not know this had already been done. By all means, this should probably be added to your existing thread. I will go and try to find it now.

Again, sorry for duplicating work! I kind of go off on my own on these things because when I work through something by myself, I can get my brain around it a bit better, but I don't want to detract from anything you have already got started.

P.S. I agree with the statement on the pings and the 18th. I actually have a note in my own timeline that states this as well. This particular analysis, however, is based solely on looking at the time in the trunk. So, I guess one could assume that she did SOMETHING on the 18th, but then removed the body the following day. Maybe the 18th is when she "prepared" the body (i.e. heart stickers and duct tape).

JWG!!!!!

:applause::applause::applause::applause::applause::applause:

Valhall said:

My apologies JWG! I did not know this had already been done. By all means, this should probably be added to your existing thread. I will go and try to find it now.

Again, sorry for duplicating work! I kind of go off on my own on these things because when I work through something by myself, I can get my brain around it a bit better, but I don't want to detract from anything you have already got started.

P.S. I agree with the statement on the pings and the 18th. I actually have a note in my own timeline that states this as well. This particular analysis, however, is based solely on looking at the time in the trunk. So, I guess one could assume that she did SOMETHING on the 18th, but then removed the body the following day. Maybe the 18th is when she "prepared" the body (i.e. heart stickers and duct tape).

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Val,

No problem. We should merge this into the 2.6 Day thread I referred to above. Discussion certainly is worth revisiting, particularly because the ADD times out later in the afternoon on the 19th (assuming a death after 3PM on the 16th), and KC does not ping near Suburban Drive on the 19th.

Valhall, LOVE your signature! How true!

JWG said:

Val,

No problem. We should merge this into the 2.6 Day thread I referred to above. Discussion certainly is worth revisiting, particularly because the ADD times out later in the afternoon on the 19th (assuming a death after 3PM on the 16th), and KC does not ping near Suburban Drive on the 19th.

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Well, we should never rule out anything based on "lack of cell phone pings". If a cell phone is turned off, there will be no pings.

Isn't there a period of time (I believe from about 6 pm to 9 pm) that there is no cell phone activity (no pings) for KC on the 19th? We really can't say where she is during that period of time, can we?

Valhall said:

Well, we should never rule out anything based on "lack of cell phone pings". If a cell phone is turned off, there will be no pings.

Isn't there a period of time (I believe from about 6 pm to 9 pm) that there is no cell phone activity (no pings) for KC on the 19th? We really can't say where she is during that period of time, can we?

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Absolutely true, but remember that KC was seen by Brian mid-afternoon, not between 6 and 9 PM, and she was at the Anthony's for over an hour, backed into the garage. If she arrived at 6PM, she would run the risk of CA coming home from work soon after.

I think the way the pings and testimony worked out, KC was at Chris S. house around 6PM, and stayed to roughly 8PM on the 19th. KC was clearly at the parent's home the afternoons of the 17th, 18th, and 20th.

JWG said:

Absolutely true, but remember that KC was seen by Brian mid-afternoon, not between 6 and 9 PM, and she was at the Anthony's for over an hour, backed into the garage. If she arrived at 6PM, she would run the risk of CA coming home from work soon after.

I think the way the pings and testimony worked out, KC was at Chris S. house around 6PM, and stayed to roughly 8PM on the 19th. KC was clearly at the parent's home the afternoons of the 17th, 18th, and 20th.

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Agreed. I just looked at the weather data again for the 19th. And starting at about 6 p.m. there were heavy thunderstorms in the Orlando area which lasted until at least 8 p.m. I can see KC staying put wherever she happened to be during that time.

Wow, this is amazing. If this is accurate, KC's cell phone should ping her close to the A's on 1/20 around that time which would mean that she was discarding the body at the pet burial site.

JWG,

Here is something else to support the 18th being the shovel day instead of the 19th.

Look at the calendar for the month of June at the bottom of this page

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORL/2008/6/16/MonthlyHistory.html

There had only been .18 inches of rain the 4 days preceding the 18th. And that was two days before on the 16th. Beginning on the evening of the 18th through the 21st there was significant rainfall every day. On the evening of the 18th there was over 1/4 inch of rain.

The reason I think this supports BB's account falling on the 18th instead of the 19th is that people don't typically go out and do yard work the day after a significant rainfall because the grass is usually too wet and the ground too soft. So I think most likely he was doing his yard work on the 18th, not the 19th.

Valhall said:

JWG,

Here is something else to support the 18th being the shovel day instead of the 19th.

Look at the calendar for the month of June at the bottom of this page

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORL/2008/6/16/MonthlyHistory.html

There had only been .18 inches of rain the 4 days preceding the 18th. And that was two days before on the 16th. Beginning on the evening of the 18th through the 21st there was significant rainfall every day. On the evening of the 18th there was over 1/4 inch of rain.

The reason I think this supports BB's account falling on the 18th instead of the 19th is that people don't typically go out and do yard work the day after a significant rainfall because the grass is usually too wet and the ground too soft. So I think most likely he was doing his yard work on the 18th, not the 19th.

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That might apply to most places, however FL is such a different bag. I lived there 8 years and could never get used to lawn crews being out in the rain. Usually in June it begins to rain once a day, late in the day. And 1/4 inch is almost nothing in terms of rainfall. By August, it can even rain twice a day. People in FL are sort of used to scheduling yardwork whenever they get a chance. I know it's been drier than usual down there for a few years (still have several relatives in the area) but unless its a full-blown thunderstorm, rain doesn't have much effect on yardwork. The ground is squishy all summer long.

I posted my [ame="http://websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3855211&postcount=989"]thoughts[/ame] on the Theories On What Happened to Caylee Part 5 thread, speculating why Caylee might have died at ~10PM on the evening of June 15. I am not completely bought into the theory myself, largely because KC does not seem to be in a rush to get out of the home the morning of June 16. She is on the computer IMing and surfing a good portion of the day. nline:

What drove me to the conclusion, however, were two things:

1. I do not believe KC bagged Caylee's body on the 19th, a day she did not visit the Anthony home. The bags came from the home, and I believe she grabbed them to solve an immediate problem (or two problems). One was to stop decomposition fluids from further staining the trunk. And a second was to select a sturdy bag - the laundry bag - to carry the body out of the trunk without risking the bag tearing. In both cases I do not believe she grabbed the bags with the intention of doing something with them later and at a different location. She just did not work that way, IMO. :bang:
2. I believe the analysis that derived the accumulated degree day (ADD) value of 90 assigned to the stain has a relatively low tolerance (think of high accuracy). But I do not know how low. Perhaps other WSer's can comment on how much tolerance they feel is in that test? :waitasec: What I am trying to get at is this. If the test has a tolerance of 33% (30 ADD), that means the chemical composition of the stain at 60 ADD (90 - 30) could look the same as the composition at 120 ADD (90 + 30). Similarly a 1% tolerance covers the range 89.1 to 90.9. :detective:

As an exercise :treadmill:, here are some time-of-death values based on ADD tolerance if we are to assume the body was bagged around 3:45PM on the 18th. I pick that time because she appears to have left around 4:00PM, so 3:45 gives her enough time to clean up and return the shovel after bagging (I show date / time followed by ADD tolerance used):In other words, if I assume the ADD analysis has a tolerance of 35%, a 3:45 PM June 18 bagging could be consistent with a 6:45 PM June 16 death.

Here is a similar analysis showing bagging occurring on June 20 at ~1:45PM, when KC was briefly at the home:Depending on whether or not one believes the time of death is the afternoon or evening of the 16th, the tolerance needs to be 25% or higher to fit the parameters.

Maybe that is reasonable? :waitasec:

JWG - food for thought, as usual! I am just curious about what effect on the rate of decomposition your 10:00 p.m on the 15th scenario would have, considering that the body would have spent approximately 18 hours indoors in the air conditioning before being put into the trunk. Obviously this is way out of my league to evaluate but I am sure that there are those of you who can!!

TallyHo said:

JWG - food for thought, as usual! I am just curious about what effect on the rate of decomposition your 10:00 p.m on the 15th scenario would have, considering that the body would have spent approximately 18 hours indoors in the air conditioning before being put into the trunk. Obviously this is way out of my league to evaluate but I am sure that there are those of you who can!!

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Excellent question, TH. :thumb:

Thanks to Bond :woohoo:, the spreadsheet we built last December simulates the difference in temperature when the body is in the trunk versus when it is not. The differences are based on papers that studied how trunk and interior air temperature varied from ambient air at different times during the day. The temperature data itself was collected from a Weatherunderground station about halfway between the Anthony's and Tony's - a station that happened to record temperatures every five minutes. :detective:

We give the spreadsheet the following parameters: Time of death, target ADD (in this case 90), tolerance of the ADD, time first placed in trunk, time removed from trunk for the backyard burial escapades, and time placed back in trunk when KC gave up on the backyard burial. The spreadsheet spits out three dates/times: exact point of 90 ADD, 90 ADD minus the tolerance limit, and 90 ADD plus the tolerance limit.

The point is, the time in the trunk is well accounted for.

JWG said:

Here is a similar analysis showing bagging occurring on June 20 at ~1:45PM, when KC was briefly at the home:

6/17/08 2:45 PM 1%
6/17/08 12:30 PM 5%
6/17/08 10:15 AM 10%
6/17/08 7:15 AM 15%
6/17/08 3:00 AM 20%
6/16/08 9:15 PM 25%
6/16/08 5:00 PM 30%
6/16/08 1:45 PM 35%
​

Depending on whether or not one believes the time of death is the afternoon or evening of the 16th, the tolerance needs to be 25% or higher to fit the parameters.

Maybe that is reasonable? :waitasec:

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I should say a few words about the tolerance. Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:

When I speak of a tolerance value of, say, +/-some percent, I am really saying I am 95% confident :snooty: the event occurred between the first date (-some percent) and the last date (+some percent).

The following graph is a normal probability distribution. 95% of the probability lies between -2 on the graph and +2 on the graph.



In the case of the ADD time values and tolerances, I only showed you half the story. Using one example, a time of death of 6/16/08 3:30 PM and a 35% ADD tolerance, I get the following dates:In other words, if the tolerance on the ADD analysis is 35% and time of death was 6/16/08 at 3:30 PM, then I am 95% confident that the bagging occurred between 6/18/08 at 1:36 PM and 6/20/08 at 3:26 PM.

3:45PM on the 18th and 1:45PM on the 20th are the two most likely times I believe a bagging occurred based on:

1. KC obtaining the various bags from the home,
2. KC trying to hide what she was doing by backing into the Anthony garage,
3. times KC was at the Anthony home based on cell pings, and
4. KC behavior - i.e., I don't believe she would get the bags with the intention of doing the bagging elsewhere at a later time.

Both times fall within the range of times given by the 95% confidence interval. Interestingly, they fall about the same distance on either side of the midpoint, meaning the probability the bagging occurred on either date / time is about the same. :doh: Also, while it is possible the bagging occurred at either time, the likelihood is not very high. The highest likelihood is dead center - June 19 at 2:50 PM. :banghead:

:waitasec: June 18 becomes far more likely and June 20 far less likely if the time of death becomes earlier and earlier on the 16th.

:waitasec: June 20 becomes far more likely and June 18 far less likely if the time of death becomes later and later on the 16th.

(Thank you Captain Obvious :takeabow

But the real point here (thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumb is that if you agree the bagging had to happen on the 18th or 20th at the Anthony home, then it is much more likely that Caylee died in the early morning of the 16th or some time during the evening of the 16th than it is she died mid-afternoon on the 16th.

I emphasize evening above because I'm starting to think (contrary to a post I made yesterday:bang that the evening of the 16th is when she died.

JWG said:

I should say a few words about the tolerance. Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:

When I speak of a tolerance value of, say, +/-some percent, I am really saying I am 95% confident :snooty: the event occurred between the first date (-some percent) and the last date (+some percent).

The following graph is a normal probability distribution. 95% of the probability lies between -2 on the graph and +2 on the graph.

In the case of the ADD time values and tolerances, I only showed you half the story. Using one example, a time of death of 6/16/08 3:30 PM and a 35% ADD tolerance, I get the following dates:

6/18/08 1:36 PM (this corresponds to the -2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
6/19/08 2:50 PM (this corresponds to the 0 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
6/20/08 3:26 PM (this corresponds to the 2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
​

In other words, if the tolerance on the ADD analysis is 35% and time of death was 6/16/08 at 3:30 PM, then I am 95% confident that the bagging occurred between 6/18/08 at 1:36 PM and 6/20/08 at 3:26 PM.

3:45PM on the 18th and 1:45PM on the 20th are the two most likely times I believe a bagging occurred based on:

1. KC obtaining the various bags from the home,
2. KC trying to hide what she was doing by backing into the Anthony garage,
3. times KC was at the Anthony home based on cell pings, and
4. KC behavior - i.e., I don't believe she would get the bags with the intention of doing the bagging elsewhere at a later time.

Both times fall within the range of times given by the 95% confidence interval. Interestingly, they fall about the same distance on either side of the midpoint, meaning the probability the bagging occurred on either date / time is about the same. :doh: Also, while it is possible the bagging occurred at either time, the likelihood is not very high. The highest likelihood is dead center - June 19 at 2:50 PM. :banghead:

:waitasec: June 18 becomes far more likely and June 20 far less likely if the time of death becomes earlier and earlier on the 16th.

:waitasec: June 20 becomes far more likely and June 18 far less likely if the time of death becomes later and later on the 16th.

(Thank you Captain Obvious :takeabow

But the real point here (thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumb is that if you agree the bagging had to happen on the 18th or 20th at the Anthony home, then it is much more likely that Caylee died in the early morning of the 16th or some time during the evening of the 16th than it is she died mid-afternoon on the 16th.

I emphasize evening above because I'm starting to think (contrary to a post I made yesterday:bang that the evening of the 16th is when she died.

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Hi JWG--great posts! I've been out of the country for 2 weeks on complete Caylee withdrawal, but didn't we figure out that George had the day off on the 20th? If so, maybe the 20th is not a likely bag day.

AZlawyer said:

Hi JWG--great posts! I've been out of the country for 2 weeks on complete Caylee withdrawal, but didn't we figure out that George had the day off on the 20th? If so, maybe the 20th is not a likely bag day.

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Forgive the tangent :bang: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tangent_to_a_curve.svg

FWIW...I just expanded on IBY's kindly summary of Brian's sightings w/ the cell pings near G&C's 6/17-6/23 here: [ame="http://websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3864593&postcount=3"]Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - BB The Neighbor's Timeline[/ame]

Although, per IBY's summary, Brian places Casey backing into the garage a 3rd time on 6/20 in agreement w/ the time frame of the pings that day, Casey's trip was soooooo fast that day :takeoff:...~11mins unless I've screwed up the math...if I didn't know anything different I'd say she didn't stop at the house...that she saw some evidence that George was there (e.g. car in the driveway, garage door open, etc.) "Ruh roh!!! (pause) Reorge!" and just kept on goin'. (Sorry - bout that. I've been good so far).

Add that to NO ADVANCE CALLS TO THE HOUSE, CINDY'S CELL, OR GEORGE'S CELL* before making the ueber-brief ping-appearance near G&C's that day...and you've got what has become almost-expected w/ this case...:banghead:

If we knew nothing of ADD at the moment and had nothing from Brian about backing into the garage the 3rd I'd be saying on 6/20 Casey - with Fusian Friday night rapidly approaching - stole away from Tony's just before 2PM, had something in mind 'bout it being George's time to goto work until she drove by and :doh: realized George was off and she had to keep on going. :takeoff: Stopped on Suburban on the way out of Hopespring ...said/thought, "WTF" and emptied the trunk.

But...then again...we DO have ADD and we DO have Brian's sighting. Ugh. :banghead:

That banghead thing is beginning to feel good. Should I be worried?

*Ooops. Forgot to provide the disclaimer for the Lexus-isn't-Lexus crowd. If Lexus=Cindy or George, then, there was a 1:53PM call to Lexus-but-not-Lexus-it-was-Cindy-or-George (whew THAT was close) :yow:

JWG said:

I should say a few words about the tolerance.

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Tolerance is good. We should all be more tolerant. I whole-heartedly agree. Can't get enough tolerance. Mo' tolerance.

Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:

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That would make them INtolerant, wouldn't it. :waitasec:



From now on ANY post that includes a normal distribution plot should require a mandatory "thank you". So let it be written. So let it be done!! :clap:

(thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumb

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ropeller:
Hey! Don't stop now...I just got MiniTab open. Bought some drinks for the Andersen-Darling sisters (they're hot too). C'mon...