AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

[Salem]

Please continue here.

Please remember TOS.

Please do not discuss the minor children in an accusatory nature. They are victims of this situation and should be treated as such, unless LE tells us differently.

Please remember that theories and speculation are welcome, but they must be based in reality. ALSO - if you don't happen to agree with a theory, that's fine, BUT don't be condescending or tell those who are kicking the theory around, how to post.

Please be respectful and civil to each other and the MODS - or TOs will be issued. If you have a question about moderation, what is okay to post, or TOS, PM a mod. They will help you. You may always pm me or any of the mods you are comfortable with. We will get an answer for you.

Originally Posted by bessie

TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) - Tucson police are searching for a 6-year-old girl who went missing from her home on the city's east side.

Isabel Mercedes Celis was last seen late Friday and discovered to be missing at about 8 a.m. Saturday.

Sgt. Maria Hawke says police are searching the area around East Broadway Boulevard and Craycroft Road using street patrols, canines, detectives and a helicopter.

She's described as just under 4-feet-tall and weighing 44 pounds, with brown hair and hazel eyes.

Snipped: http://www.kswt.com/story/17650000/t...-year-old-girl

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Full news coverage:http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/

Local Media:
http://www.kgun9.com/
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/categor...missing-isabel
http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/
http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/subindex/news/local/tucson
http://azstarnet.com/

Find Isabel Celis Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/FindIsabelCelis
new website for Isabel Celis:http://bringisahome.com/

[Salem]

Quoting myself just to bring this link over.

Originally Posted by Salem

Just a note - Phoenix was name the US kidnapping capital in 2009: http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6848672&page=1


Salem

[Shelby2]

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15

Today, 09:37 PM
abstr
Registered User

Is there a link that the CPS order is for 90 days? I have only seen people state that in cases they knew or in their states they are for 90 days. This is where I get frustrated. Someone shares a clearly stated opinion or says this my knowledge in my case or state....and someone turns it to fact....

I was told this in the previous thread by AZlawyer. I specifically asked how long the no contact orders were for. 90 days unless he wants to fight it.

[butterfly1978]

well this sucks no new news, UGG where is this baby???

[fancyface]

just dont know

[gitana1]

Originally Posted by Shelby2

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15


I was told this in the previous thread by AZlawyer. I specifically asked how long the no contact orders were for. 90 days unless he wants to fight it.

There does not appear to be an "order" in this case. That, I think, is confusion on the part of MSM. From what I can gather, there was a voluntary safety plan that one or both parents agreed to. That safety plan, designed by CPS, included a provision that Sergio have no contact with his children.

If they didn't agree to it, CPS would have to go to court and file an action in a juvenile dependency court arena, to seek orders putting the children in the system and restricting access, etc.

MSM called it an "order" but its description in articles and statements indicates it is not a court order at all. So, no 90 day limit.

[PAXIMUS]

Evening friends, I am ready to pull an all nighter I am at my moms she just got out of surgery and I have to stay up all night to help her with toilet needs etc.

Shelby you with me hehe. Get that coffee brewin.


Gitana good to see you!

[PAXIMUS]

Originally Posted by fancyface

just dont know

Heyyy youre back, happy to have my partner in crime.

[Lark2]

JoeDotNet
Theories, in no special order.

1. SC killed her and disposed of the body. 2-1
2. BC killed her and disposed of the body. 4-1
3. One of the parents killed her and the other one is covering. 10-1
4. Drug cartel kidnapping/ransom. 20-1
5. 20-1
6. Stranger abduction. 30-1
7. Friend/family abduction. 3-2
8. She somehow left the house on her own and didn't make it back. 50-1
9. Hoax for reward money. 35-1

Agree with the odds except I put the odds of a hoax a little higher and rank a stranger abduction more likely than a cartel abduction because of the high number of sex offenders in the area.

[mahoolin]

Didn't know how to bring closed thread over about JM and his disappearance, but here is the c/p:

Originally Posted by pieper4

To me that begs the question... why did he disappear after that first day? But who knows.

Been thinking about this. He didn't know WS was here, and that we'd want to know all about him when the case went national. There are varying degrees of "something to hide", so it's anyone's guess.

[pinkfly]

Originally Posted by PAXIMUS

Evening friends, I am ready to pull an all nighter I am at my moms she just got out of surgery and I have to stay up all night to help her with toilet needs etc.

Shelby you with me hehe. Get that coffee brewin.


Gitana good to see you!

You are a good man Pax......thanks from all the moms!!!

[jennapuppy]

I have heard that LE announced that they are looking at the family's finances. I can't find a link. Did they announce this recently, or at the beginning of the investigation?

[PAXIMUS]

Originally Posted by pinkfly

You are a good man Pax......thanks from all the moms!!!

She stayed up with me when I was sick all the time, I guess its the least I can do, she didnt want to go to an after care home so I said lets go home to your own bed and I will help. Happy to do it she is a good mommy.

[pieper4]

Unclear on if I need to be verified as a Local per a Mod note in the previous thread. Anyone know? Don't want to step on toes.

[johnQpublic]

Here's something I really like to know .. Who the heck is Steve ??? Another Hinky thing I discovered is the Find Isabel Celis FB page was created on the 21st of April, would be interesting to find out what time, But it's interesting the sites are maintained by a guy name Steve... Who is He ???

[Stash777]

Originally Posted by Lark2

Agree with the odds except I put the odds of a hoax a little higher and rank a stranger abduction more likely than a cartel abduction because of the high number of sex offenders in the area.

And I would modify the drug cartel to clarify not just drugs specifically...

[liz b.]

I know that it has been referenced that LE took scenthounds and a cadaver dog into the Ceils' house, but is it known if these types of dogs were taken into their cars ?

Why has it never been mentioned if and where scenthounds tracked Isabel's scent to the last known place where she was ? TIA if anyone either knows or has a good guess...

JMO

[pieper4]

Originally Posted by johnQpublic

Here's something I really like to know .. Who the heck is Steve ??? Another Hinky thing I discovered is the Find Isabel Celis FB page was created on the 21st of April, would be interesting to find out what time, But it's interesting the sites are maintained by a guy name Steve... Who is He ???

His name is Steve Raw. He's a techie sort who apparently wanted to use social media to spread the word. I've spoken w/him on a couple of occasions.

[Shelby2]

Originally Posted by PAXIMUS

Evening friends, I am ready to pull an all nighter I am at my moms she just got out of surgery and I have to stay up all night to help her with toilet needs etc.

Shelby you with me hehe. Get that coffee brewin.


Gitana good to see you!

LOL I will try, need to deal with kids who refuse to go to sleep!

[Lark2]

Originally Posted by jennapuppy

I have heard that LE announced that they are looking at the family's finances. I can't find a link. Did they announce this recently, or at the beginning of the investigation?

It's been hugely unpopular to post this, and I have received a smackdown for even suggesting it, but to me, it is far more likely that this was an inside job engineered as some sort of way to make money rather than an outside cartel abduction.

I'll repeat what was reported weeks ago: LE was interviewing the kids' friends to see what they might have been discussing in the week before Isa went missing. I thought that was interesting and potentially significant.

[Shelby2]

Originally Posted by PAXIMUS

She stayed up with me when I was sick all the time, I guess its the least I can do, she didnt want to go to an after care home so I said lets go home to your own bed and I will help. Happy to do it she is a good mommy.

I hope she will be feeling better, I'm sure she will be more comfortable in her own bed!

[liz b.]

Originally Posted by Lark2

Agree with the odds except I put the odds of a hoax a little higher and rank a stranger abduction more likely than a cartel abduction because of the high number of sex offenders in the area.

I would put any type of Cartel at 100-1

An RSO or unregistered SO at 10-1

A sometime workman at the Celis' house at 10-1

A young male neighbor at 5-1

Accident at 50-1

JMO

[Prof]

Originally Posted by pieper4

I did so yesterday and haven't had a response. But thanks.

You are welcome

Here is what I found

"Locals who are describing the area or are members of the gyms and that sort of thing do not need to be verified.
We only verify people who know the players or have been named in the media, etc. "

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106653

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106653

IMO if you are giving your local perspective, just note in your post that you live or work in the area...that sort of thing.

[mahoolin]

ok, have to ask - has the neighbor that "heard the male voices" been backed up by anyone else? Have there been any other neighbors that heard the barking dogs?

From the google shot - looks like there are 4 houses pretty close together. I can hear dogs barking WAAAYYYYY down the street from me and pretty much pick out which house it's coming from during the night when it's quiet. Do we have any other neighbor corroboration on the male voices or dogs barking other than the neighbor who seems to know all about the Celis'?

It concerns me that the majority of theories here are based on statements from 1 neighbor who seems to be really interested in getting her 15 min of fame. Correct me/forgive me if I'm wrong and there is corroboration, on screen or off from someone else to support all these. It'd make me feel better about things.

What if there were no male voices, no barking dogs, no speculation of cartels? Where would we start our theories?? Could be we're not getting anywhere because we've veered way off course by going the way some lady pointed down the road instead of reading the signs...



just looking for Isabel

[jennapuppy]

Originally Posted by pieper4

I did so yesterday and haven't had a response. But thanks.

Since you are an "unverified" local, I'll ask you:
Do you know when LE announced that they are looking into the family's finances? Sometimes we hear about this in the cases of a murdered spouse, but I can't think of when I've heard this mentioned during this course of a missing child investigation. TIA

ETA: as I was posting this, I believe Lark2 was answering.