Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16

[foxbluff]

Originally Posted by GrainneDhu

SBM

It depends on the dog.

I have seen a few dogs that would track down a double laid track where the person walks in one direction, then makes a 180 degree turn and tries to walk over the track they just laid. Those few dogs would go right down to the place the person made the 180 degree turn, turn with the turn and follow the tracklayer back along the trail.

Many dogs don't. It's highly unlikely that someone will double back for very long distances. Eventually that person will step away from their pre-laid track and go somewhere else. Dogs will often skip the double laid portion of the track and just make the turn where the tracklayer turned off the track. If the particular individual that the dog is tracking lays down fresher scent, that's what the dog is most likely to follow.

I suspect that dogs are capable of more than humans realise. The problem isn't the capabilities of dogs, it's the human ability to communicate to the dog what is wanted that is probably lacking.

Dogs do make mistakes. So do handlers. Put the two living beings together and the occasional mistake is going to happen.

Thank you for this response! Usually, when I return to a board after a long absense, I have to "wither on the vine" for about a week before peeps decide I'm not a dreaded troll. (:

Btw, I totally agree w/the above BBM para. Makes for a great quote (or sig. line for you?).

Now, re: "It depends on the dog." Okay, I understand. IIRC, you indicated in earlier post that the search dogs at the lake were w/the FBI which tells me that the dogs/trainers/handlers would be the opposite of amateurs. (And, yes, I fully realize that there are other variables we don't know about that would have caused the dogs to stop at the water's edge.)

Do you have an educated and/or gut feeling as to whether the girls disappeared by way of water or disappeared by way of land?

[SapphireSteel]

I've read it described as a back pack.

Maybe it was one of those small backpack convertible type purses? That had a carry handle as well? I seem to recall my daughter having something like that.

[Bootsctr]

Originally Posted by otto

How about this for a theory ... the grandmother said that she watched the girls riding in circles before they vanished. I started wondering about what this means. Were they riding around the parking lot behind the buildings? Could the video have captured images of the girls riding several times, with only the last time at 12:11 (corrected to 12:19 to match the owner's cell phone time) being released to the public (I think Sunlight posted this possibility last night ... sorry if I got that wrong)? Could they have been grabbed when they were just out of sight of their home? Is that why Abben said that they were going in the wrong direction and that the bikes could have been staged?

The red line is the camera.

Otto, your pictures never cease to amaze. Yes, I think it is possible the girls could have been grabbed just out of sight of their home. Coincidentally, there are a lot of white vehicles included in the pic you provided. It looks like a pretty busy area though and I think more chances of being seen.... but not impossible. I think it would have to be a van to get two bikes in or a truck because it would have to have happened quickly and definitely more than 1 perp. The bikes are staged. How do we explain the girls scents at the lake? A piece of the girls clothing drug about? I think SapphireSteel mentioned that possibility. GrainneDhu thoughts?

[otto]

Originally Posted by cindersoot

They could off went off the bike trail past the lawn watering guy and to the front of the lake also.

I doubt that they could have taken a 3 block detour to ride along Lake Avenue and still make it to the SE tip of the lake in the given time (riding about 15 mph to make the trip in 6 minutes).

[FrayedKnot]

Originally Posted by otto

How about this for a theory ... the grandmother said that she watched the girls riding in circles before they vanished. I started wondering about what this means. Were they riding around the parking lot behind the buildings? Could the video have captured images of the girls riding several times, with only the last time at 12:11 (corrected to 12:19 to match the owner's cell phone time) being released to the public (I think Sunlight posted this possibility last night ... sorry if I got that wrong)? Could they have been grabbed when they were just out of sight of their home? Is that why Abben said that they were going in the wrong direction and that the bikes could have been staged?

The red line is the camera.

This is pretty much what I think. But like several others have mentioned; the dogs. My gut still tells me they were taken elsewhere and the bikes dumped, tho.

[cindersoot]

Originally Posted by SapphireSteel

I've read it described as a back pack.

Maybe it was one of those small backpack convertible type purses? That had a carry handle as well? I seem to recall my daughter having something like that.

Yes, thats what I read, a backpack. Thanks

[MotherOcean]

Originally Posted by foxbluff

Now re: Cindersoot's post on the difference in size of helmets and heads of women and children. Q#1: Can anybody tell me if the girls were wearing bike helmets?

Q#2: regarding LC's size: Are there any recent photos online of LC which show more of her than the headshots? (In recent headshots, she appears to me to look more like a 13-yr. old. It seems that I read she weights 145 lbs. What are the chances that people could have seen them that day and not recognized that they were seeing an 8 and 10 year old?)

snipped by me --

I can't believe we've been posting and hashing for over a month and I have never read anyone ask about helmets!! I didn't even think about helmets!! And I never let my kids ride without helmets. This is why it's so great when new people come alongside us and participate in this discussion.

My 13 year old son is about 5'3" and weighs 140 pounds. He is HUGE, not overweight huge because he is beginning to look like a young man and he isn't really flabby. But, he is a big kid for his age and it's hard for me to imagine that Lyric was 145 pounds, but I guess it's possible. I think it's likely someone would think she is older than ten.



Now I'll go back and find Cindersoot's thread. I'm catching up from over most of today.

[cindersoot]

Originally Posted by Bootsctr

Otto, your pictures never cease to amaze. Yes, I think it is possible the girls could have been grabbed just out of sight of their home. Coincidentally, there are a lot of white vehicles included in the pic you provided. It looks like a pretty busy area though and I think more chances of being seen.... but not impossible. I think it would have to be a van to get two bikes in or a truck because it would have to have happened quickly and definitely more than 1 perp. The bikes are staged. How do we explain the girls scents at the lake? A piece of the girls clothing drug about? I think SapphireSteel mentioned that possibility. GrainneDhu thoughts?

I was amazed when I visited Evansdale on how darn busy the traffic is. Especially LaFayette and Brovan st.

[otto]

Originally Posted by Bootsctr

Otto, your pictures never cease to amaze. Yes, I think it is possible the girls could have been grabbed just out of sight of their home. Coincidentally, there are a lot of white vehicles included in the pic you provided. It looks like a pretty busy area though and I think more chances of being seen.... but not impossible. I think it would have to be a van to get two bikes in or a truck because it would have to have happened quickly and definitely more than 1 perp. The bikes are staged. How do we explain the girls scents at the lake? A piece of the girls clothing drug about? I think SapphireSteel mentioned that possibility. GrainneDhu thoughts?

There are a lot of trucks there too ... semi cabs. That may explain why police were looking at vans that travelled along River Forest Road.

If the bikes were staged and dogs track from oldest to most recent (hope I got that right), then perhaps the dogs should start tracking at the Collins home or at Maiden Lane.

[Bootsctr]

Originally Posted by nikb

You're welcome - and yes, they are! I really liked the portraits too. One other thing from the article that made me smile:

Pink mohawks are not merely a fashion statement for three Elk Run Heights brothers.

Collin Yu, 9, and Ethan and Eric Yu, both 7, began sporting the spiked hairdos during softball and T-ball season.

When Elizabeth Collins, 9, and Lyric Cook-Morrissey, 10, went missing a month ago, they broke out the spray paint.

This was a very good article. I thought the pink mohawks were a great idea. Definitely will help keep people thinking about the girls. Just by reading the article you can tell this community loves these girls and is supporting their families and they want Lyric and Elizabeth home.

[otto]

Originally Posted by SapphireSteel

I've read it described as a back pack.

Maybe it was one of those small backpack convertible type purses? That had a carry handle as well? I seem to recall my daughter having something like that.

Every article I've read, from the beginning, mentions a purse and a cell phone.

July 15: "Police discovered the girls' bikes and Collins' purse and cell phone near Meyers Lake approximately four hours later."

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012...lins-iowa-lake

[SapphireSteel]

I think the fact that they were looking for the white van along River Forest Rd illustrates that they are looking for a white van that may have gone along River Forest Rd...they know what type of vehicle they are looking for...surprise, creepers typical choice of transport...a white van.

[MotherOcean]

Originally Posted by MNDad

Yes it could, but I assume that LE has checked them, the paddleboat and their property out. They did willingly come forward and by doing so subjected themselves to a possible search. I just can't picture someone grabbing two girls using a paddleboat. Yes it could be used as a lure, but no matter where on the shorline their destination was, can you picture someone paddling like a bat of hell trying to get there? In my opinion anyone who would choose a paddle boat as the escape vehicle of choice wouldn't be smart enough to elude all of us for this long.

I don't think the paddleboater is an unnamed suspect. I think the paddleboater was either reported by someone who was at the lake sometime that day and LE wants to validate that person's testimony or just wanted to be sure they had talked to everyone who was on the lake that day. If he has an active role in the abduction I think he was a "look out". A paddleboater could have had his eye on the parking lot and surrounding areas as the abduction took place. Depending on how the girls entered the lake area, he may have been able to alert the abductor that they were coming his/her/their way. I doubt that's the case but as I find myself saying more and more lately... it could be.

[cindersoot]

Originally Posted by SapphireSteel

I think the fact that they were looking for the white van along River Forest Rd illustrates that they are looking for a white van that may have gone along River Forest Rd...they know what type of vehicle they are looking for...surprise, creepers typical choice of transport...a white van.

When were they looking for a white van along forest road?

[Bootsctr]

Originally Posted by SapphireSteel

I've read it described as a back pack.

Maybe it was one of those small backpack convertible type purses? That had a carry handle as well? I seem to recall my daughter having something like that.

Only thing I can remember is I thought I read it was purple and it looked like it had just been set down.... maybe TB said that because the contents were not strewn about and the straps were intact not broken like they could have been if there was a struggle.

[cindersoot]

Originally Posted by Bootsctr

Only thing I can remember is I thought I read it was purple and it looked like it had just been set down.... maybe TB said that because the contents were not strewn about and the straps were intact not broken like they could have been if there was a struggle.

Saphire Steel is right, I heard backpack also but can't remember where.

[cindersoot]

Originally Posted by otto

Every article I've read, from the beginning, mentions a purse and a cell phone.

July 15: "Police discovered the girls' bikes and Collins' purse and cell phone near Meyers Lake approximately four hours later."

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012...lins-iowa-lake

I don't think it was an article, I think the sheriff said it.

[Bootsctr]

Originally Posted by MotherOcean

snipped by me --

I can't believe we've been posting and hashing for over a month and I have never read anyone ask about helmets!! I didn't even think about helmets!! And I never let my kids ride without helmets. This is why it's so great when new people come alongside us and participate in this discussion.

My 13 year old son is about 5'3" and weighs 140 pounds. He is HUGE, not overweight huge because he is beginning to look like a young man and he isn't really flabby. But, he is a big kid for his age and it's hard for me to imagine that Lyric was 145 pounds, but I guess it's possible. I think it's likely someone would think she is older than ten.



Now I'll go back and find Cindersoot's thread. I'm catching up from over most of today.

Never thought about helmets either. But thinking back at the video, even though it was fast and I could not tell if it was the girls or not, I don't remember it looking like there were helmets. Could definitely be wrong though.

[nikb]

Originally Posted by cindersoot

I just have a strong feeling that it came off in a struggle.

I did too initially but a few things make me doubt that. There's this article, which is the only one I can find where the condition/position of the purse is mentioned:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIP...6/ijvm.01.html

KERA MASHEK, REPORTER, KWWL: We have been told that the bikes were laying very neatly, just like any child that might get off their bike and go for a walk. They were just sitting right there along the lake side like any other ordinary day, nothing really awry with that. And the purse was also just kind of sat down -- not like it was thrown around or that they would, you know, been involved in a struggle of any kind.

And there's also the point that one of the locals here made about the height of the fence - the purse would almost certainly have landed in the water if thrown over the fence, unless someone climbed the fence and dropped it, or Elizabeth set it down. Or maybe they tossed it nearly straight up and got lucky, but I think the phone would've fallen out. That's not to say there wasn't a struggle, I definitely have lost a lot of confidence in the details of MSM reporting over the last few weeks, but I thought it was important that they were so specific in saying it was "sat down" and not "involved in a struggle of any kind."

[nikb]

On another note, looking for the purse info lead me to another interesting article/thought (BBM): http://wcfcourier.com/news/article_1...9bb2963f4.html

The girls’ bicycles and a purse were found on a trail behind Meyers Lake on Friday, and on Tuesday residents streamed into the adjacent park to watch as the water receded as part of a drawdown that is part of search operations.

How can you be "behind" a lake when a trail goes all the way around it? I'm sure I'm reading too much into it, it just struck me as strange to describe it that way. Behind relative to what? The auction house, Collins home, main entrance to the trail, the news studio...? It was described that the bikes were on the "South/Southest" part of the lake... does that fit with what we know about the location and gates? It seems to, I just wanted to get other thoughts.

[Thinkzerz]

Originally Posted by cindersoot

Saphire Steel is right, I heard backpack also but can't remember where.

yes i heard that too. Also you got me thinking about those helmets. I cant believe we never thought about this.

[GrainneDhu]

Originally Posted by Bootsctr

Fascinating! So the fox releases a scent that goes over the hounds heads and then the humans can smell that. Does that throw the hounds off, make them think they have lost track of the fox? I guess the hunters then have to become the trackers?

You got it.

Fox smell musky, a little like skunk but without the unpleasant pungency. Hard to describe.

For whatever reason, scent that rises into the air like that doesn't seem to last anywhere near as long as scent on the ground does. After about 12 hours or so, it would be very unusual to find air scent in Iowa. I don't know if the same is true in more humid areas such as sub-tropical parts of Florida.

So, the point of all this is that if someone had carried the bicycles to the spot where they were found on Friday, any air scent from the bicycles would have dissipated by Tuesday when the Bloodhounds were put to work.

What the Bloodhounds most probably found was scent on the ground.

[callyn]

Originally Posted by Thinkzerz

yes i heard that too. Also you got me thinking about those helmets. I cant believe we never thought about this.

I think it was brought up awhile ago and decided that had they been wearing helmets, that would have been in the description of clothing for sure.

[Bootsctr]

Originally Posted by otto

There are a lot of trucks there too ... semi cabs. That may explain why police were looking at vans that travelled along River Forest Road.

If the bikes were staged and dogs track from oldest to most recent (hope I got that right), then perhaps the dogs should start tracking at the Collins home or at Maiden Lane.

If it was a delivery van from somewhere who made deliveries often to the area and ate at Lottie's Lounge when he came to Evansdale and the girls frequented that area, he certainly would have been aware of the girls and could have even watched them from the parking lot in the vehicle without drawing attention to himself.

If he came from quite a distance he possibly was familiar with Meyers Lake and might have possibly used the area to nap before heading back to his destination. He knows he needs to get rid of the bikes and knows if he plants them by the lake, the lake will be searched thoroughly because drowning will be everyone's first thoughts giving him plenty of time to get far away from the area. He had thought about this for a while and knew it was only a matter of time.

Crime of opportunity and only a little forethought.

[otto]

Originally Posted by SapphireSteel

I think the fact that they were looking for the white van along River Forest Rd illustrates that they are looking for a white van that may have gone along River Forest Rd...they know what type of vehicle they are looking for...surprise, creepers typical choice of transport...a white van.

I think that investigators may be looking at traffic, vans and vehicles of any color, that may have been in the parking lot on Brovan.