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  #426  
Old 07-03-2012, 09:55 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Sim

Quote:
Originally Posted by adnoid View Post
Well, I wasn't talking to you, but here it is in smaller words.

If you are using a simulator to try to figure out how things happened, and the simulator is not accurate, your results are suspect.
That would be correct, That's why I'm going thru everything checking all points from front to back making sure it's running correctly, I have nothing but time so I'm in no rush to start real flight data.

Thanks for the info on the doors by the way

A lot of the forms I'm reading about this software state if you don't want to learn how to fly, buy a different program because this is pretty close to the real deal as far as controlling the plane, I also did some spot checking on the accuracy of the GPS and seems to be pretty dam good so far.

Complete with
fully functional cockpit gauges, knob, dials
over 7 pages of weather data including realtime weather data every 15 minutes
day, date, time
complete control of cabin, amount of passengers and crew (including luggage and crew gear)
Garmin GPS
ATC
doors are operable
Cold dead start to turn key start
added on Ground Enviroment Pro, sky 6, and now updating to Ultimate Terrain USA
727-100
727-200
Cargo and passenger
every small to large airport is on here
really is a good sim for the age and for use on a computer VS a pro set up.

Last edited by MrShutter45; 07-03-2012 at 10:32 PM.
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  #427  
Old 07-03-2012, 10:11 PM
TomKaye TomKaye is offline
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Mr45

Bravo on your work to simulate the flight path. I am looking forward to your results. I agree that this type of modeling could uncover something unusual that could be looked into.

The talk I gave at the conference included an analysis of the SAGE radar viewing angles for the flight path to determine if there was any time that the plane would have been in a radar shadow. There was no time that happened according to the analysis. This in my opinion makes it less likely the generated flight path was in error.

Tom Kaye
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  #428  
Old 07-03-2012, 10:25 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Simulator

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomKaye View Post
Mr45

Bravo on your work to simulate the flight path. I am looking forward to your results. I agree that this type of modeling could uncover something unusual that could be looked into.

The talk I gave at the conference included an analysis of the SAGE radar viewing angles for the flight path to determine if there was any time that the plane would have been in a radar shadow. There was no time that happened according to the analysis. This in my opinion makes it less likely the generated flight path was in error.

Tom Kaye
Thanks Tom! I don't believe I have ever read anyone doing this so I figured what the hell it's worth a try and possibly find something, ya never know until ya do it
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  #429  
Old 07-03-2012, 10:48 PM
hominid hominid is offline
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SAGE tracking

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomKaye View Post
The talk I gave at the conference included an analysis of the SAGE radar viewing angles for the flight path to determine if there was any time that the plane would have been in a radar shadow. There was no time that happened according to the analysis. This in my opinion makes it less likely the generated flight path was in error.

Tom Kaye
Tom,

Did your analysis relate to the Mt. Hebo radar site?
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  #430  
Old 07-03-2012, 11:54 PM
georger georger is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomKaye View Post
Mr45

Bravo on your work to simulate the flight path. I am looking forward to your results. I agree that this type of modeling could uncover something unusual that could be looked into.

The talk I gave at the conference included an analysis of the SAGE radar viewing angles for the flight path to determine if there was any time that the plane would have been in a radar shadow. There was no time that happened according to the analysis. This in my opinion makes it less likely the generated flight path was in error.

Tom Kaye
Did you uncover who made the FBI map and how and when (the process)?

By 'radar shadow' I assume you are talking about the length from SEA to
PDX. Who was watching the radar? And what of Jerry Thomas's highly
tauted 'McChord radar tapes' being stored at a secret military facility out east?
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  #431  
Old 07-04-2012, 03:01 PM
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Niner Niner is offline
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Cool

Quote:
Originally Posted by hominid View Post
Mr...45,

I would like you to stay. When you get the hang of it you can just ignore whatever you want to on a forum. Participate the way you want to. Skip the garbage. I will be bypassing "we know alls." You post something... I'll read it and respond if I have anything to say about it. You've been doing something potentially useful here.
Yes, please stay - there is a way to "ignore" these "we know alls"!!

Go to "User CP" - top of the page on the left after "Home", then scroll down on the left side to "Settings & Options" you'll see "Edit Ignore List" -click and put whomever you like on there!

edited to add: I would really like to see the results of your "flight"!!!
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  #432  
Old 07-04-2012, 03:16 PM
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Thumbs up

Oh I should have read further - Adnoid stepped in...
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  #433  
Old 07-04-2012, 03:16 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Take off time

Sluggo says this on his site for take off time?

19:33 PST
Flt 305 takes off
None
Estimated based on next transmission.
19:37 PST
SEA CNTR request Flt 305 ident. [this is a process of making sure ATC is tracking the right “Blip” on their radar]. And verify assigned altitude of 10,000 ft.
SEA CNTR
Comm. with SEA CNTR
19:40 PST
Flt 305 reports through 6500 ft. and trying to get the steps down back there
Pilot
Comm. with SEA CNTR
19:40 PST
Flt 305 reports leveling off at 7,000 ft. Cooper wants the stairs down and they are slowing to about 160 KIAS.
Pilot
Comm. with SEA CNTR
19:42 PST
Flt 305 reports “14 NM out of SEA on Victor-23. Cooper is trying to get the door down, Stew is with us, he cannot get the stairs down. We now have an aft stair light on.
Pilot
Comm. with Flt-Ops MSP
19:44 PST
Flt 305 advises they will hold at 7,000 ft. We have the back steps down now and it looks like we aren’t going to be able to climb anymore.
Pilot
Comm. with SEA CNTR
19:45 PST
Flt 305 reports 19 NM DME out of SEA at 7,000 ft. No comm.. with Cooper but have an aft stair light.
Pilot
Comm. with Flt-Ops MSP
19:45 PST
Fly Ops MSP advises that after a while someone will have to go back and take a look to see if he is out of the aircraft. Also, if they have to go any distance in that configuration their indicated optimum speed is 170 knots. Portland, Medford, and Red Bluff are available alternate airports.
Flt-Ops MSP
Comm. with Flt-Ops MSP
19:46 PST
Flt-Ops SEA has the enroute weather, its Fog and Haze
Flt-Ops SEA
Comm. between Flt-Ops MSP and Flt-Ops SEA
19:48 PST
Flt 305 reports 160 KIAS, which is about 5 knots above stall speed. Holding at 7,000 ft. Fuel flow is 4500 gal/hr.
Pilot
Comm. with Flt-Ops MSP
19:48 PST
Flt Ops MSP advises they will not make it to Reno in that configuration. Unless he is gone. Also, the higher the cabin is [meaning the lower the pressure due to altitude] the better if you guys have mask on [supplied oxygen]
F
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  #434  
Old 07-04-2012, 05:42 PM
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adnoid adnoid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShutter45 View Post
That would be correct, That's why I'm going thru everything checking all points from front to back making sure it's running correctly, I have nothing but time so I'm in no rush to start real flight data.

Thanks for the info on the doors by the way

A lot of the forms I'm reading about this software state if you don't want to learn how to fly, buy a different program because this is pretty close to the real deal as far as controlling the plane, I also did some spot checking on the accuracy of the GPS and seems to be pretty dam good so far.

Complete with
fully functional cockpit gauges, knob, dials
over 7 pages of weather data including realtime weather data every 15 minutes
day, date, time
complete control of cabin, amount of passengers and crew (including luggage and crew gear)
Garmin GPS
ATC
doors are operable
Cold dead start to turn key start
added on Ground Enviroment Pro, sky 6, and now updating to Ultimate Terrain USA
727-100
727-200
Cargo and passenger
every small to large airport is on here
really is a good sim for the age and for use on a computer VS a pro set up.
Sounds like you're doing well.
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  #435  
Old 07-04-2012, 05:56 PM
TomKaye TomKaye is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by georger View Post
Did you uncover who made the FBI map and how and when (the process)?
TK: No, there was no info at all about the maps.

Quote:
Originally Posted by georger View Post
By 'radar shadow' I assume you are talking about the length from SEA to PDX. Who was watching the radar? And what of Jerry Thomas's highly tauted 'McChord radar tapes' being stored at a secret military facility out east?
TK: By "Radar Shadow" I mean a mountain or some such thing that an airplane would fly behind and the radar would not be able to see it. As it turns out, the SAGE system had auxiliary radars to fill in the shadowed areas. It was NOT just one radar at McChord and another at PDX that had the ability to see the aircraft. There was no info at all about any radar data being stored anywhere.
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  #436  
Old 07-04-2012, 06:23 PM
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Allusonz Allusonz is offline
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I find the entire process you are all doing facsinating.

I though know little about planes but to fly in them. I do enjoy following it all
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  #437  
Old 07-04-2012, 11:58 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Terrain update

I got the update on the sim, here is a short quick clip with some features, watch in HD for best results

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  #438  
Old 07-05-2012, 04:26 AM
georger georger is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TomKaye View Post
TK: No, there was no info at all about the maps.



TK: By "Radar Shadow" I mean a mountain or some such thing that an airplane would fly behind and the radar would not be able to see it. As it turns out, the SAGE system had auxiliary radars to fill in the shadowed areas. It was NOT just one radar at McChord and another at PDX that had the ability to see the aircraft. There was no info at all about any radar data being stored anywhere.
yes - all previously established. thanks.
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  #439  
Old 07-05-2012, 11:15 PM
hominid hominid is offline
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night light patterns of cities

Mr...45,

A few days ago I asked about light patterns and you posted a pic of overflying Seattle in 1935 (I think). It really didn't answer the question for me. What I'm wondering about is if Vancouver and Portland look like they would have then (if you have that date set in, and assuming the weather is clear). The FBI flightpath map shows what the light patterns looked like then. You'd have to turn it upside down and look from a low angle to get an idea what it would have looked like when approaching from the north. Could you post a pic for a clear night from about Merwin?
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  #440  
Old 07-05-2012, 11:34 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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1935

Quote:
Originally Posted by hominid View Post
Mr...45,

A few days ago I asked about light patterns and you posted a pic of overflying Seattle in 1935 (I think). It really didn't answer the question for me. What I'm wondering about is if Vancouver and Portland look like they would have then (if you have that date set in, and assuming the weather is clear). The FBI flightpath map shows what the light patterns looked like then. You'd have to turn it upside down and look from a low angle to get an idea what it would have looked like when approaching from the north. Could you post a pic for a clear night from about Merwin?
sadly the answer is no, I think it would be to much on them to change each year mapping wise, however there was a big change when I upgraded to the Ultimate Terrain, this can be shut off and use the default system but still probably goes by 2003 mapping.

that is another question I will ask them because since you can change the weather, why would you put a function in that only changes the date and not it's surrounding but as mentioned I think it would cause the cost to sky rocket.

I'm sure the sky was not even close to being lit up as today, I remember as a kid a lot of places closed by 8:00 and lights were out, no fear like today. I have a satellite photo from that time period and then today and could post If you want me too?
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  #441  
Old 07-05-2012, 11:46 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Complete route check

I am going to study the transcripts as much as I can and find out ever possible move we can put into play and present a flight plan for you guys to tear apart once I put it on here

once we all agree on how to run this in real time, then we can proceed with actual flights.

I would love to be able to put two monitors on the system and have someone with me taking notes as we fly, fuel consumption, and mapping, it's seems to be a little to much for me to fly and control a uncontrolled plane watching the altitude and speed is a task in itself, let alone click off the screen and check the fuel.

I have learned a lot with this in understanding the plane, the reason for the amount of Pilot's etc etc.

I take the pic right now, be back in a while
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  #442  
Old 07-05-2012, 11:46 PM
georger georger is offline
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I'm sure the sky was not even close to being lit up as today, I remember as a kid a lot of places closed by 8:00 and lights were out, no fear like today. I have a satellite photo from that time period and then today and could post If you want me too?[/quote]

Yes please post any satellite photos from the period.
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  #443  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:10 AM
hominid hominid is offline
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Portland and Vancouver city lights in '71

By rotating and cropping the FBI flightpath map, squeezing it down vertically, and adding perspective, this is sort of like the cities would have looked when approaching from the north on a clear night. Oh, yeah. The gold color represents the city lights.
Attached Images
File Type: bmp PortlndPersp.bmp (60.5 KB, 7 views)

Last edited by hominid; 07-06-2012 at 12:25 AM.
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  #444  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:21 AM
hominid hominid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShutter45 View Post
...once we all agree on how to run this in real time, then we can proceed with actual flights.

I would love to be able to put two monitors on the system and have someone with me taking notes as we fly, fuel consumption, and mapping, it's seems to be a little to much for me to fly and control a uncontrolled plane watching the altitude and speed is a task in itself, let alone click off the screen and check the fuel.
Please don't say you won't fly unless everyone agrees.

Does your plane have a PAUSE button?
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  #445  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:23 AM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Satellite Pics

Quote:
Originally Posted by georger View Post
I'm sure the sky was not even close to being lit up as today, I remember as a kid a lot of places closed by 8:00 and lights were out, no fear like today. I have a satellite photo from that time period and then today and could post If you want me too?
Yes please post any satellite photos from the period.[/quote]

Here is the site where I got the photo's

http://pum.princeton.edu/muhconferen...ns/Elvidge.pdf
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  #446  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:45 AM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Flight path

Quote:
Originally Posted by hominid View Post
Please don't say you won't fly unless everyone agrees.

Does your plane have a PAUSE button?
yes it has a pause, I just hope that will work with the time breaks, haven't checked yet.

also has a flight time clock, so I guess it would be ok to do that.

as for the flying, I was referring to us all coming to the same conclusions as to the correct path, time, weather and altitude adjustments etc etc so this can be the best possible scenario we can do
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  #447  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:23 AM
hominid hominid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShutter45 View Post
...as for the flying, I was referring to us all coming to the same conclusions as to the correct path, time, weather and altitude adjustments etc etc so this can be the best possible scenario we can do
Someone else might like to see a different scenario, but I would like to see an attempt to fly the path shown in the FBI flightpath map and matching everything possible to records of what the conditions were at the time (comm transcript, NWA incident report, av weather reports, NWS weather info from Weather Underground). Maybe it will be enough of a kick for you that you could try some other scenario too if someone wants?
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  #448  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:29 AM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Different Path

Quote:
Originally Posted by hominid View Post
Someone else might like to see a different scenario, but I would like to see an attempt to fly the path shown in the FBI flightpath map and matching everything possible to records of what the conditions were at the time (comm transcript, NWA incident report, av weather reports, NWS weather info from Weather Underground). Maybe it will be enough of a kick for you that you could try some other scenario too if someone wants?
Correct, I would like to recreate the version on the map and from there I could try different approaches and see if any new things arise, but the first step would be to recreate to the best of our ability matching the map.
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  #449  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:54 PM
MrShutter45 MrShutter45 is offline
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Fuel Consumption

out of nowhere I decided to take a flight and check the fuel, now, I didn't set up the sim correctly with the weather but here is what I did.

I flew on V23 at the correct altitudes and speed and got these numbers, I flew for 15 minutes with two sets of numbers. (fuel reads 10,003 29,500 10,003 for a total of 49,506 lbs

at 12 minutes into the flight I had a fuel reading of 8853 28,350 8853 with 3450 lbs burned.
at the 15 minute mark it read 8377 27,808 8377 with 4944 lbs burned.

this would simulate a 7:33 take off and a 7:36 take off.

Radio Transcript / NWA Transcript
7:42 ......305 out SEA 14 miles 7:40....14 DME S SEA VOR at 7000'
gear down flaps extended 30 degress

tried to separate numbers, didn't work on the last part
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  #450  
Old 07-07-2012, 11:40 PM
hominid hominid is offline
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Fuel Burn and timing

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShutter45 View Post
...I flew on V23 at the correct altitudes and speed and got these numbers, I flew for 15 minutes with two sets of numbers. (fuel reads 10,003 29,500 10,003 for a total of 49,506 lbs

at 12 minutes into the flight I had a fuel reading of 8853 28,350 8853 with 3450 lbs burned.
at the 15 minute mark it read 8377 27,808 8377 with 4944 lbs burned.

this would simulate a 7:33 take off and a 7:36 take off.

Radio Transcript / NWA Transcript
7:42 ......305 out SEA 14 miles 7:40....14 DME S SEA VOR at 7000' gear down flaps extended 30°
The 12 minute burn is barely in the ballpark of what the flight reported. 5750lbs/hr/engine where they reported 4500. But the last three minutes seemed to have burned an inordinate amount. Just that last 3 minutes would be 9960 lb/hr/engine. More than 2x what they reported. Seems odd the last 3 minutes would burn so much more. When you flew this, did you have much load other than fuel?

Your giving the logged comm. re distance and the NWA report info re. distance highlights something significant about the NWA report. It appears at least for the short series of events that were logged at 7:42 on the comm transcript that NWA separated them to a close sequence of times separated by 1 minute each, and in the same sequence. The times on the comm transcript were the times entered automatically when the send key was pressed, not the times when the individual lines were keyed in. It is odd that the report statement for 7:43 was part of the logged comm for 7:42.
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