My (a homicide detective) take on some theories

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PoliceMatt

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Hey all,

New here and nursing a Covid infection while under quarantine, so bored and digging into cases since I can't dig into my real cases.

I have read a lot on this case in the past, and even more recently and have come across many theories. I kind of just wanted to share why I think a couple of them are implausible and a couple are plausible.

First, to start, I am a homicide detective in a major metro area. I have worked many cases, and worked in a similar occupation in the military as well. When I promoted to detective I worked cold cases, solving two older than a decade, which got me my homicide spot.

On to the theories:

Cops are involved: This theory to me is the first one to go out of the window. Springfield has a population of over 150k. It is not the type of city which an entire department is caught up in trafficking. You don't get 350 officers and support staff involved in something like that, and you just don't hide it for long enough. Even small town departments that have done similar things have usually been ratted out to the FBI after a while. I could buy that maybe ONE officer was involved, but not for drug trade reasons, but rather for killer reasons, an officer who managed to steer the case a bit, but this is not some police coverup. You just can't keep a secret like this in a dept that large.

Grave Robbers: I understand why people are upset at how quickly they were cleared, but what isn't known is what they truly told police, or why they were quickly cleared. A lot of that stuff is left out, and sometimes purposely, if even to keep locals talking (killers like this often insert themselves in the local talk, and talk about those 3 could lead to the real killer slipping). I don't see how three people with the criminal acumen to steal gold teeth from a stolen skull and pawn them have the wherewithal to pull this off. It just is not likely. And it is a large leap, one that is statistically unlikely for petty criminals. This also has the same problem on a smaller scale as the police theory: secrets are rarely kept by more than 1 person for a long time. One of these knuckleheads would have likely talked by now.

Stalker: this one is semi plausible to me, I would just need more detail. Stalker killers don't often target groups in the manner in which this was done. If the target was mom, the stalker would have had a large window with which to work with before the girls got home. I know there have been the Cary Stayners of the world, but again, they are rare. Most serial and opportunist killers don't target large groups. And most are careful, meaning if any one singular girl was the target, or even a mom and daughter fantasy, they likely would not have gone through it with the third girl there. Although, a knock and then push entry is a plausible form of entry in this case.

Someone mom knew: I don't see this discussed often, but I like the theory that someone came targeting mom and was in the home when the girls arrived. I am sure the girls were not especially quiet when pulling up to the home and whoever was inside could have easily have already subdued mom or threatened harm to the girls if she screamed. Once they walked in, he could have slammed the door (breaking the globe outside with the bulb) and been forced to deal with what has now taken place. I do understand there are a good amount of holes with this, but it is plausible and similar things have happened in cases I worked. Especially since the original plan was that the girls would be gone all night, leaving mom a vulnerable target all night, or so he thought.

Gas worker or police ruse: I don't like these theories as they just stretch the imagination. A worker coming to the house in the middle of the night whether it be an officer or a gas worker with an emergency isn't necessarily even guaranteed to have the door answered for them. But in a police emergency it is likely the women would have demanded to take their belongings with them to a station or whatever, meaning it would have just devolved into forced cooperation quickly, and maybe in the doorway, where you don't wanna be for fear of being spotted. Same with a gas leak theory, as they will likely either want their belongings or to take the dog, and thus the situation devolves.


I'd like people to share their theories so I can see how I feel about them. Of course, I could be wrong as the one thing we can never fully predict is human behavior, but I have worked A LOT of murder cases and a lot of difficult to solve cases between now and the military, some of which sadly remain unsolved, one or two of which you would probably have heard of.
 
Thank you for joining here and welcome. I'm really looking forward to your posts and insights.
I hope you're recovering easily from your Covid infection.
I have a few questions for you.
Have you thought about becoming a verified insider here? That would be wonderful if you did.
What case are you talking about above?
Can you tell us the major cases you have worked on that got solved?
TIA
 
Hey all,

New here and nursing a Covid infection while under quarantine, so bored and digging into cases since I can't dig into my real cases.

I have read a lot on this case in the past, and even more recently and have come across many theories. I kind of just wanted to share why I think a couple of them are implausible and a couple are plausible.

First, to start, I am a homicide detective in a major metro area. I have worked many cases, and worked in a similar occupation in the military as well. When I promoted to detective I worked cold cases, solving two older than a decade, which got me my homicide spot.

On to the theories:

Cops are involved: This theory to me is the first one to go out of the window. Springfield has a population of over 150k. It is not the type of city which an entire department is caught up in trafficking. You don't get 350 officers and support staff involved in something like that, and you just don't hide it for long enough. Even small town departments that have done similar things have usually been ratted out to the FBI after a while. I could buy that maybe ONE officer was involved, but not for drug trade reasons, but rather for killer reasons, an officer who managed to steer the case a bit, but this is not some police coverup. You just can't keep a secret like this in a dept that large.

Grave Robbers: I understand why people are upset at how quickly they were cleared, but what isn't known is what they truly told police, or why they were quickly cleared. A lot of that stuff is left out, and sometimes purposely, if even to keep locals talking (killers like this often insert themselves in the local talk, and talk about those 3 could lead to the real killer slipping). I don't see how three people with the criminal acumen to steal gold teeth from a stolen skull and pawn them have the wherewithal to pull this off. It just is not likely. And it is a large leap, one that is statistically unlikely for petty criminals. This also has the same problem on a smaller scale as the police theory: secrets are rarely kept by more than 1 person for a long time. One of these knuckleheads would have likely talked by now.

Stalker: this one is semi plausible to me, I would just need more detail. Stalker killers don't often target groups in the manner in which this was done. If the target was mom, the stalker would have had a large window with which to work with before the girls got home. I know there have been the Cary Stayners of the world, but again, they are rare. Most serial and opportunist killers don't target large groups. And most are careful, meaning if any one singular girl was the target, or even a mom and daughter fantasy, they likely would not have gone through it with the third girl there. Although, a knock and then push entry is a plausible form of entry in this case.

Someone mom knew: I don't see this discussed often, but I like the theory that someone came targeting mom and was in the home when the girls arrived. I am sure the girls were not especially quiet when pulling up to the home and whoever was inside could have easily have already subdued mom or threatened harm to the girls if she screamed. Once they walked in, he could have slammed the door (breaking the globe outside with the bulb) and been forced to deal with what has now taken place. I do understand there are a good amount of holes with this, but it is plausible and similar things have happened in cases I worked. Especially since the original plan was that the girls would be gone all night, leaving mom a vulnerable target all night, or so he thought.

Gas worker or police ruse: I don't like these theories as they just stretch the imagination. A worker coming to the house in the middle of the night whether it be an officer or a gas worker with an emergency isn't necessarily even guaranteed to have the door answered for them. But in a police emergency it is likely the women would have demanded to take their belongings with them to a station or whatever, meaning it would have just devolved into forced cooperation quickly, and maybe in the doorway, where you don't wanna be for fear of being spotted. Same with a gas leak theory, as they will likely either want their belongings or to take the dog, and thus the situation devolves.


I'd like people to share their theories so I can see how I feel about them. Of course, I could be wrong as the one thing we can never fully predict is human behavior, but I have worked A LOT of murder cases and a lot of difficult to solve cases between now and the military, some of which sadly remain unsolved, one or two of which you would probably have heard of.

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Welcome @PoliceMatt ! I hope you make a speedy recovery, and thank you for sharing your experience with us here in your quarantine.

I haven't followed this case as closely as others but I was wondering whether you felt that there was more than one perpetrator? Certainly with a gun three women could be controlled, but just wondering if you had thoughts on that.

It is baffling and astonishing that such a notorious crime has yet to be solved. Do you think that is due to investigative missteps early on? Or maybe that the perpetrators were not from Springfield, just passing through so that there really isn't many tips that can help from the locals?
 
Hey all,

New here and nursing a Covid infection while under quarantine, so bored and digging into cases since I can't dig into my real cases.

I have read a lot on this case in the past, and even more recently and have come across many theories. I kind of just wanted to share why I think a couple of them are implausible and a couple are plausible.

First, to start, I am a homicide detective in a major metro area. I have worked many cases, and worked in a similar occupation in the military as well. When I promoted to detective I worked cold cases, solving two older than a decade, which got me my homicide spot.

On to the theories:

Cops are involved: This theory to me is the first one to go out of the window. Springfield has a population of over 150k. It is not the type of city which an entire department is caught up in trafficking. You don't get 350 officers and support staff involved in something like that, and you just don't hide it for long enough. Even small town departments that have done similar things have usually been ratted out to the FBI after a while. I could buy that maybe ONE officer was involved, but not for drug trade reasons, but rather for killer reasons, an officer who managed to steer the case a bit, but this is not some police coverup. You just can't keep a secret like this in a dept that large.

Grave Robbers: I understand why people are upset at how quickly they were cleared, but what isn't known is what they truly told police, or why they were quickly cleared. A lot of that stuff is left out, and sometimes purposely, if even to keep locals talking (killers like this often insert themselves in the local talk, and talk about those 3 could lead to the real killer slipping). I don't see how three people with the criminal acumen to steal gold teeth from a stolen skull and pawn them have the wherewithal to pull this off. It just is not likely. And it is a large leap, one that is statistically unlikely for petty criminals. This also has the same problem on a smaller scale as the police theory: secrets are rarely kept by more than 1 person for a long time. One of these knuckleheads would have likely talked by now.

Stalker: this one is semi plausible to me, I would just need more detail. Stalker killers don't often target groups in the manner in which this was done. If the target was mom, the stalker would have had a large window with which to work with before the girls got home. I know there have been the Cary Stayners of the world, but again, they are rare. Most serial and opportunist killers don't target large groups. And most are careful, meaning if any one singular girl was the target, or even a mom and daughter fantasy, they likely would not have gone through it with the third girl there. Although, a knock and then push entry is a plausible form of entry in this case.

Someone mom knew: I don't see this discussed often, but I like the theory that someone came targeting mom and was in the home when the girls arrived. I am sure the girls were not especially quiet when pulling up to the home and whoever was inside could have easily have already subdued mom or threatened harm to the girls if she screamed. Once they walked in, he could have slammed the door (breaking the globe outside with the bulb) and been forced to deal with what has now taken place. I do understand there are a good amount of holes with this, but it is plausible and similar things have happened in cases I worked. Especially since the original plan was that the girls would be gone all night, leaving mom a vulnerable target all night, or so he thought.

Gas worker or police ruse: I don't like these theories as they just stretch the imagination. A worker coming to the house in the middle of the night whether it be an officer or a gas worker with an emergency isn't necessarily even guaranteed to have the door answered for them. But in a police emergency it is likely the women would have demanded to take their belongings with them to a station or whatever, meaning it would have just devolved into forced cooperation quickly, and maybe in the doorway, where you don't wanna be for fear of being spotted. Same with a gas leak theory, as they will likely either want their belongings or to take the dog, and thus the situation devolves.


I'd like people to share their theories so I can see how I feel about them. Of course, I could be wrong as the one thing we can never fully predict is human behavior, but I have worked A LOT of murder cases and a lot of difficult to solve cases between now and the military, some of which sadly remain unsolved, one or two of which you would probably have heard of.
Thank You for looking into the Springfield Three. This case can sure use the help.
 
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