Post sentencing discussion

[Cherwell]

Originally Posted by Sherbert

I suspect he appealed to her maternal instincts. She probably thought that, deep down, he was a decent guy - just a bit moody and wild on the outside - perhaps, due to the prosthetics and the loss of his mother.

Also, when someone is so adored by the public, it's quite easy to be influenced into thinking they must be decent or so many would not have been fooled.

I read somewhere that her mother thought she must have been flattered by all the attention and I agree that this obviously must have played its part.

I suspect he only wanted her for showing off in front of his friends and to bug the ex he keeps texting all the time.

==============

Whose mother? Masipa"s mother??

Reeva's mother. Both posts refer to Reeva.

 

[jay-jay]

Actually, in principle a cricket bat striking a wooden door could sound something like a distant gunshot IF the listener is not alert or astute. See http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/oscar-pistorius-trial-watch-alexander-3228570

At one time I thought that was the favoured candidate for the earlier bangs, certainly not for the later.

It was only the Stipps who heard the earlier bangs, they were quite close to the source of the noise, Mrs Stipp was flu-ish, Dr Stipp might have been woken from a deep sleep. To be honest, it isn't so much the sound itself as the tempo of the bat strikes that rules it out, but then the Stipps weren't accurate on the number and tempo of the second "bangs". Some people don't retain the precise detail of what they hear. As long as they retain enough detail, it is good evidence, especially if it is corroborated.

Now I'm unsure about the cricket bat strikes accounting for part of the first sounds, for example because of Mr Fossil's alternative, but don't rule it out either. Oscar has form ALLEGEDLY, smashing doors in a rage. He settled a court case just before the trial, in which he ALLEGEDLY injured someone smashing down a door. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...accused-assault-slammed-broke-door-party.html

The state were silent on the earlier bangs, I guess because they didn't think they needed it to present their case. Unless they had EVIDENCE that there were further gunshots, it would be speculation. Likewise, I guess, the cricket bat strikes are speculation. IMO they were wrong to make it common cause that the damage to the door occurred after the shots.

There was no corroborating evidence on the first bangs which the Stipps heard, except loosely there are signs of an argument before 03:15 that wasn't only verbal - unless Oscar is very messy, doesn't fix broken tiles and panels, etc.

BBM1 - yes, I'm just wondering if he might have bashed the toilet door in with his bare fists/hands .. I know that my violent ex was capable of doing things like that (and was quite prone to doing it when in a rage) and he wasn't even a muscular athlete like Pistorius!

BBM2 - it's a shame that none of the witnesses actually gave a vocal representation of the bangs they heard, just so that we can get some sort of an idea as to how quick the bangs were, and what sort of gaps between them (especially in the case of where Michelle Burger heard 'bang .. bang, bang, bang). A cricket bat being bashed on a door does actually sound incredibly similar to a gunshot .. I was caught out by it and guessed incorrectly, and I know what gunshot sounds like from all the game shooting that used to go on fairly near to where I used to live .. I thought I would recognise the sound of a gunshot but I didn't, it was the sound of the cricket bat being banged on the door .. and you are right, the thing that would give it away is the tempo of the bangs as it takes time to swing the bat back and then whack it on the door .. so if the bangs were quick, then it couldn't be the bat.

 

[soozieqtips]

"Growing up without a father could permanently alter the structure of the brain and produce children who are more aggressive and angry, scientists have warned"

~snipped~

Are you referring to the study which was carried out on California mice?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ss-children-likely-grow-angry-turn-drugs.html

"The research, which was carried out on mice, compared the social behaviour and brain anatomy of youngsters with two parents to those growing up with mothers alone".

 

[Marfa Lights]

The first sounds being gunshots is one of a number of possibilities but one which I favour for the moment. I don't think it necessarily makes forensics sloppy because they would not know they needed to look for this (since everything else seems to fit together). And we mustn't forget that, in spite of my measurements, it is still possible that the magazine has more bullets in it than I've figured.

I think the first shots would have been fired from within the bedroom (or bathroom) and aimed outside, so no louder than the second set. The Stipps hear the first shots because Annette Stipp is already awake and their balcony windows are open. But my main point re. less people hearing the first shots is this: how many people were living and sleeping on the estate that night, including some living nearer the ear witnesses, who didn't hear anything? And of those that did, how many heard all the second shots? I think the progression of first shots, dogs barking, screaming, second shots gradually woke a few people but surprisingly few when you think of the potential number that lived near enough.

I think it is possible that the cricket bat (striking the toilet door) has become a distraction and confused the issue. It has allowed the Defence to build a plausible alternative scenario for what happened that evening. I don't think the bat was heard by anyone. Just like the barging of the bedroom door wasn't, or whatever caused the dent in the bath panel (as well as the potentially louder sounds above).

Okay, Mr. Fossil, I am nominating you for a "Sherlock" award... or some such "Supersleuth" appellation.
Your capacity for open-minded reasoning and your ability to work through all the sticky details is astounding!

 

[04009margaret]

James Grant @CriminalLawZA · Oct 29
Can anyone translate this into English?
"Die Seekoei-struikelblok ... #OscarPistorius @CriminalLawZA http://www.netwerk24.com/stemme/2014-10-29-die-seekoei-struikelblok …"

James Grant @CriminalLawZA · Oct 29
I am asking for someone to translate the whole article - I don't have time - have homework from a certain Mr Nel - can't keep him waiting.

James Grant @CriminalLawZA · Oct 29
Thanks all - @HansErasmus has agreed to do the translation. Thanks Hans.

 

[Mr Fossil]

... but couldn't those extra bullets have been fired at some other time, some other place (i.e. the firing range)?

Of course but if they were fired at the range he would almost certainly have fired more than 3 shots and would have reloaded the magazine IMO.

 

[RosieC]

BBM1 - yes, I'm just wondering if he might have bashed the toilet door in with his bare fists/hands .. I know that my violent ex was capable of doing things like that (and was quite prone to doing it when in a rage) and he wasn't even a muscular athlete like Pistorius!

BBM2 - it's a shame that none of the witnesses actually gave a vocal representation of the bangs they heard, just so that we can get some sort of an idea as to how quick the bangs were, and what sort of gaps between them (especially in the case of where Michelle Burger heard 'bang .. bang, bang, bang). A cricket bat being bashed on a door does actually sound incredibly similar to a gunshot .. I was caught out by it and guessed incorrectly, and I know what gunshot sounds like from all the game shooting that used to go on fairly near to where I used to live .. I thought I would recognise the sound of a gunshot but I didn't, it was the sound of the cricket bat being banged on the door .. and you are right, the thing that would give it away is the tempo of the bangs as it takes time to swing the bat back and then whack it on the door .. so if the bangs were quick, then it couldn't be the bat.

Thanks for your comment, jay-jay. I think that on the night he killed Reeva, Oscar did strike the door twice with a cricket bat. Vermeulen finds an impressive match. However in the previous incident, he struck the door with his fists, as I recall. Cassidy Taylor Memmory gives an interview of it, what she won't comment on is as interesting as what she will - http://ewn.co.za/2014/02/12/EWN-Exclusive-Taylor-Memmory-speaks-on-Oscar-Pistorius

Fyi, I added a final comment to the post you quote. I added:

What Roux did (in effect repeatedly), which was very devious, was claim that the defence didn't need expert witness testimony that the bat strikes could resemble gunshots, because the Stipps heard the bat strikes and believed that they were gunshots. Of course he then went on to allude to common cause that the gunshots preceded the bat strikes, and the rest, as they say, is history.

I think it is quite interesting how Roux distorted the evidence to make his case. It's smoke and mirrors, really. I asked my husband if I should call him a "snake oil attorney". He said better not, so I won't.

 

[RosieC]

:goodpost::goodpost:

How many bullets are left in the magazine?

Witness testimony analysis 2 re-presents the sequence of events of 14 Feb based upon the supposition that Johnson's phone time is incorrect (see event comments for rationale). This then allows for the possibility that the 3 loud bangs that the Stipps hear some time after Annette Stipp wakes at 03:02 (less 3/4 minutes) are prior to the 4 shots that kill Reeva, which most ear witnesses then hear. One possibility for this first set of sounds is OP firing out of the balcony doors or bathroom window.

The photo of the magazine at the scene shows us that there are at least 10 bullets (of 17) in it but not whether there are more (except there aren't 17 as can be seen from the viewing hole marked '17' which is empty). If there are more than 10 bullets in the magazine then it is unlikely that the first sounds were gunshots. If there are 10, that leaves open the possibility that 7 shots were fired and perhaps the initial 3 cartridge casings were then removed from the scene (via Reeva's bag being one possibility). This also assumes that OP kept the magazine fully loaded, a reasonable assumption?

As there doesn't appear to be any evidence given on how many bullets are left in the magazine, I've had a go at figuring it myself.

From this picture of a disassembled 17 round magazine taken from a Taurus PT917CS (same gun) we can see that there are 12 complete coils in the spring.

View attachment 62408

Closer inspection of OP's magazine below shows two coils of the spring visible in the bottom right 'viewing hole'. The first is easy to see, and you can see the edge of the second to its right if you look carefully.

View attachment 62409

If the gap between these two coils is measured and then multiplied by 12 (the total number of coils) this then gives us an approximation for the extent to which the spring is extended within the magazine. Add the piece of yellow plastic that is used as a seat for the last bullet (see top photo) and we have an idea of where the bottom bullet sits in the magazine and therefore how many bullets remain.

View attachment 62412

The estimating method is inexact but I come to two conclusions assuming the magazine was full to start with:

1) It looks like there are only 10 bullets remaining in the magazine which implies 7 may have been fired
2) Even allowing for the inaccuracies of this approach it still looks like more than 4 bullets are missing, which again supports the 7 bullets used hypothesis

Would anyone else care to have a go at this exercise to see if you agree or not?

 

[mrjitty]

Thanks for your comment, jay-jay. I think that on the night he killed Reeva, Oscar did strike the door twice with a cricket bat. Vermeulen finds an impressive match. However in the previous incident, he struck the door with his fists, as I recall. Cassidy Taylor Memmory gives an interview of it, what she won't comment on is as interesting as what she will - http://ewn.co.za/2014/02/12/EWN-Exclusive-Taylor-Memmory-speaks-on-Oscar-Pistorius

Fyi, I added a final comment to the post you quote. I added:

What Roux did (in effect repeatedly), which was very devious, was claim that the defence didn't need expert witness testimony that the bat strikes could resemble gunshots, because the Stipps heard the bat strikes and believed that they were gunshots. Of course he then went on to allude to common cause that the gunshots preceded the bat strikes, and the rest, as they say, is history.

I think it is quite interesting how Roux distorted the evidence to make his case. It's smoke and mirrors, really. I asked my husband if I should call him a "snake oil attorney". He said better not, so I won't.

I tend to think that the mistake of the Stipp's on the first bangs is what created the opportunity for the defence - who then only needed to make it up to 4 bangs.

Keep in mind that the defence never in reality advanced its "timeline" until after it heard all the states witnesses.

The real stupidity is that the screams like a women thing - for which there was no evidence

 

[Mr Fossil]

I have added a Chronology tab to Witness testimony analysis 2. This shows the Masipa / Roux chronology from the Judgement and Defence Heads of Argument (they are exactly the same, Masipa didn't change a single thing that Roux proposed) alongside my hypothetical chronology based on Johnson's phone time being wrong and the first set of sounds that the Stipps hear being before the gunshots that kill Reeva. My chronology needs to be read in conjunction with the comments against the events in the WTA2 tab and the Timeline. I'm still tuning it as I'd like to get the times for the events between my first and second shots to be as tight / reasonable as possible.

Thoughts, corrections, additions, alternative views always welcome.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

Thanks for your comment, jay-jay. I think that on the night he killed Reeva, Oscar did strike the door twice with a cricket bat. Vermeulen finds an impressive match. However in the previous incident, he struck the door with his fists, as I recall. Cassidy Taylor Memmory gives an interview of it, what she won't comment on is as interesting as what she will - http://ewn.co.za/2014/02/12/EWN-Exclusive-Taylor-Memmory-speaks-on-Oscar-Pistorius

bbm
Fyi, I added a final comment to the post you quote. I added:

What Roux did (in effect repeatedly), which was very devious, was claim that the defence didn't need expert witness testimony that the bat strikes could resemble gunshots, because the Stipps heard the bat strikes and believed that they were gunshots. Of course he then went on to allude to common cause that the gunshots preceded the bat strikes, and the rest, as they say, is history.

I think it is quite interesting how Roux distorted the evidence to make his case. It's smoke and mirrors, really. I asked my husband if I should call him a "snake oil attorney". He said better not, so I won't.

Everyone is afraid of the influence of OP and his family (and pistorians). Who can stop that and in what manner?

 

[JudgeJudi]

While it's gone a bit quiet, can I just ask a question about the ammunition OP used in his Taurus pistol to shoot Reeva, and the ammo which was found in his safe, please .. I'm a bit confused as to whether the black talon bullets he used in his gun that night were the same type of bullets as those he was storing in his safe (supposedly on behalf of his father), or were they different ones? Could someone please clarify this for me .. TIA!

Hi jay-jay,

I think those were .38 that were in the safe and he had .38 firearm on order.

While I've got you here, did you see my earlier post (I'll go back and look for it) about the police visits (plural) to the house. I think it was around about p.40.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

I have added a Chronology tab to Witness testimony analysis 2. This shows the Masipa / Roux chronology from the Judgement and Defence Heads of Argument (they are exactly the same, Masipa didn't change a single thing that Roux proposed) alongside my hypothetical chronology based on Johnson's phone time being wrong and the first set of sounds that the Stipps hear being before the gunshots that kill Reeva. My chronology needs to be read in conjunction with the comments against the events in the WTA2 tab and the Timeline. I'm still tuning it as I'd like to get the times for the events between my first and second shots to be as reasonable as possible.

Thoughts, corrections, additions, alternative views always welcome.

Thought, useless: Christo Menelaou has spend that night with Frankie, it seems. Both men heard nothing, and if at all, then only thunderclap.

Question: Carice Viljoen had heard a man's and a woman's voice and told of her thoughts "where is the lady, what happened"? Or was it another witness? I'm confused, sorry. - I would write this special mention into your verrrry excellent excel list.

 

[KarenUK]

Thanks for sharing that. It's very hard to be in the minority. In this forum, I fall the other way but I've certainly had my fair share of things going the other way in my larger life. It feels terrible. I hope that I was not disrespectful. That would be wrong. What makes it even worse for me is that when you guys in the minority sincerely tried to explain your reasoning/were you were coming from I was still too dense or "dug In" to my own opinion to "get it."

This is going to sound really weird, and I absolutely know it's not optimal but in cases like this ( which is my very first case. Maybe there's equal polarization in other/all cases, too. But in rare situations do you think the admins might consider opening up parallel threads? That way, each "group" could participate without feeling shut out, etc., if they wanted the support of like-minded folks who would understand those views without the frustration of having to explain it all the time.

There is a thread in the Jonbenet Ramsey forum for just Intruder theories and another for Ramsey theories to post in, a really good idea as it stops any squabbling (hopefully). It is hardwork if you are posting against popular opinion, it can leave a bad taste in the mouth and sometimes I've just felt it easier to not get involved in the conversation.

 

[JudgeJudi]

Originally Posted by Sherbert
I suspect he appealed to her maternal instincts. She probably thought that, deep down, he was a decent guy - just a bit moody and wild on the outside - perhaps, due to the prosthetics and the loss of his mother.

Also, when someone is so adored by the public, it's quite easy to be influenced into thinking they must be decent or so many would not have been fooled.


I read somewhere that her mother thought she must have been flattered by all the attention and I agree that this obviously must have played its part.



==============

Whose mother? Masipa"s mother??

:floorlaugh: I'm still laughing and I can't stop :floorlaugh:

The first two are referring to Masipa. The last line is referring to Reeva's mother.

I just love this forum. It can be HILARIOUS. It's 1.25am. I think I'm overtired so I'm off the bed.

 

[vansleuths]

I have added a Chronology tab to Witness testimony analysis 2. This shows the Masipa / Roux chronology from the Judgement and Defence Heads of Argument (they are exactly the same, Masipa didn't change a single thing that Roux proposed) alongside my hypothetical chronology based on Johnson's phone time being wrong and the first set of sounds that the Stipps hear being before the gunshots that kill Reeva. My chronology needs to be read in conjunction with the comments against the events in the WTA2 tab and the Timeline. I'm still tuning it as I'd like to get the times for the events between my first and second shots to be as tight / reasonable as possible.

Thoughts, corrections, additions, alternative views always welcome.

Thanks for all of your efforts Mr. Fossil, look forward to reading this today.

 

[vansleuths]

BIB Firstly, is there a link for the article quoted in your last paragraph please Vansleuths?
Secondly, it is a relief to see that some are aware of the impact of poor fathering upon young male offspring. I was disappointed that Judge Masipa adopted the 'blame' conveniently placed on OP's dead mother as being one who was overly anxious and slept with a gun under her pillow. She had 3 children she was rearing in highly unstable, apartheid SA. She had a duty to protect her children and herself. Where was OP's father? What impact did his role modelling have during their upbringing? What kind of parenting did he offer or lack thereof? So convenient to blame the mother who cannot defend herself IMO. Given the status of women in SA, OP's mother would most likely have endured disadvantage and vulnerability as a SA white woman rearing three children on her own. Where was Henke? did he abandon his responsibility to his own children? what was his influence? My opinion only.

You are correct Fuskier. A child is the product of all of their environmental factors, good or bad. I really don't know much about OP's mom, but from what little I have heard, she did sound loving and caring.

With Henke, again, I don't know why he was estranged from his son, but there seems to be no doubt that he was absent from OP's life during his formative years and this has a major impact.

 

[PrimeSuspect]

Probably best if I don't reply to your post above, especially the BBM.

.. oh, just to address the 'If the tables had been turned and Reeva shot Pistorius, how different would the conversation on this forum be?' .. that's a pointless thing to say because she didn't shoot him. However, I have watched crime programmes where the woman has murdered (either their husband or their children) and I feel exactly the same about them as I do about Pistorius. This has nothing to do with any kind of sistahood sticking up for a sista, just for the sake of it.

I agree, I'm definitely not in that sistahood either, a killer is a killer, male or female and should be brought to justice. jmo

 

[BritsKate]

A bitter twist of irony...many of us who believe that OP knowingly, intentionally fired four shots into Reeva deeply wish we could believe OP thought it was an intruder.

It's disturbing and incredibly heart-breaking to be of the notion he intended to murder her...and to believe she spent the last few moments of her life screaming in terror. It's not as simplistic as hating a perpetrator (though I'd argue it's their actions and subsequent behaviour we actually hate - like a sense of entitlement). I haven't 'met' many through this forum that don't exude warmth and compassion at every turn. For a great many, believing a different scenario would hurt a lot less. Because these cases we follow do wriggle themselves into your life - they become part of us - and most, if not all, here would agree no one should ever be killed by someone they love.

JMO

 

[Deleted member 102539]

I have added a Chronology tab to Witness testimony analysis 2. This shows the Masipa / Roux chronology from the Judgement and Defence Heads of Argument (they are exactly the same, Masipa didn't change a single thing that Roux proposed) alongside my hypothetical chronology based on Johnson's phone time being wrong and the first set of sounds that the Stipps hear being before the gunshots that kill Reeva. My chronology needs to be read in conjunction with the comments against the events in the WTA2 tab and the Timeline. I'm still tuning it as I'd like to get the times for the events between my first and second shots to be as tight / reasonable as possible.

Thoughts, corrections, additions, alternative views always welcome.

Re. Johnson and call time I don't have to contribute anything. - Re. the timeline: IF the early shots (out of the window) were between 3:00 and 3:08, Reeva could have been very afraid and told OP, she would call for help with his phone (which later disappeared and was replaced with another under the towel, then had deleted the SOS-call per Carl), whomever (police? OP's manager? security?). OP reacted with "no please, please no!", thought "I have to shoot now, sorry, your fault, Reeva" and shot the deadly bullets. Sounds logical.
P.S. The cartridge case, which was found near the corridor between bedroom and bathroom, perhaps belonged to the bullets gone out of the window.