Ebola outbreak - general thread #8

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JudyBolton said:
So if I quoted a woman who said, "The New York City Health Department finally sent Dr. _____to talk to ___. He stated "by that time she was convinced that the law was only persecuting her when she had done nothing wrong." Who would you think I was talking about? a certain nurse with the intials K.H.?

You would be wrong - those were the feelings of Mary Mallon(aka: Typhoid Mary) who infected 53 people with typhoid fever and refused to be quarantined or even examined by a doctor - she hid in the bathroom when they tried to interview her....

"there was no policy providing guidelines for handling the situation. Some difficulties surrounding her case stemmed from Mallon's vehement denial of her possible role, as she refused to acknowledge any connection between her working as a cook and the typhoid cases."
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The nurse isn't hiding in the bathroom and she isn't denying symptoms because she doesn't have them.
 
Inthedetails said:
So this 82% would put all health-care workers who work with ebola patients in a hospital in quarantine? Was that the question?
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Do you mean for (gasp) 21 days? I'm guessing so....

or they could just send them over to work in Pediatric ICU? What would you want if you or your child was in that hospital?
 
JudyBolton said:
So if I quoted a woman who said, "The New York City Health Department finally sent Dr. _____to talk to ___. He stated "by that time she was convinced that the law was only persecuting her when she had done nothing wrong." Who would you think I was talking about? a certain nurse with the intials K.H.?

You would be wrong - those were the feelings of Mary Mallon(aka: Typhoid Mary) who infected 53 people with typhoid fever and refused to be quarantined or even examined by a doctor - she hid in the bathroom when they tried to interview her....

"there was no policy providing guidelines for handling the situation. Some difficulties surrounding her case stemmed from Mallon's vehement denial of her possible role, as she refused to acknowledge any connection between her working as a cook and the typhoid cases."
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Slightly OT But we have been watching The Knick on the Max channel. Clive Owen, surgeon,really good imho . But they have been covering Miss Mary Mallon. I have no idea if it's historically accurate but it's interesting nonetheless. I guess after the season ends, I will read up on her to see how accurate it was. Tks for bringing her up !
 
But we do have to look at it realistically. What they are doing would be like LE anticpating you might commit a crime and arrest you just in case. That is what they are ddoing. It has IMO become a power control issue - she tested negative more than anyone else I know that was set out upon the world after one negative test. She is like a double money back guarnatee. Throw in no fever at all and we got a really good chance that she is not infecting anyone , casue she is not sick, nor is the virus present in her bloodstream.

If an xray says a bone is fine you dont get crutches "just in case"!

BingoBongo said:
But they are not "locking everyone up just in case"

They are monitoring, quarantining and observing (in addition to asking for cooperation) those who have GOOD CAUSE to be monitored, quarantined and observed.
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Inthedetails said:
The nurse isn't hiding in the bathroom and she isn't denying symptoms because she doesn't have them.
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That was NOT my point. I was pointing out human nature is to deny you are sick, deny you are of any danger, even lie (yes! we've seen that already) about things for your own selfish benefit. This was in 1901 and in spite of all of our advances.... some things are eerily the same when it comes to responses to these things. I'm sure Mary had her defenders then, too.
 
Lyra500 said:
I really think it would make sense for people to concentrate on the facts rather than spending their energies thinking up hypothetical 'worst case' scenarios just so that they can continue fuelling the huge overreaction which is going on in the US.

I just saw a news clip on the BBC and the correspondent said "This is a battle between facts and fear and fear is winning".

Dr Spencer's temperature had not even breached the threshold when he referred himself in. I do not think anyone is going to contract Ebola from him if the examples of Mr Duncan and the two Texas nurses are anything to go by.

I just posted a very clear excerpt of an article which covered when people are contagious, which bodily fluids carry the most virus, why people are very unlikely to contract anything from sweat in the early stages.



http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/ebola-virus/Pages/how-it-spreads.aspx
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This is what I originally posted and you responded:

JudyBolton said:
bbm - Somehow, using the word "THINK" when discussing a virus with a 50-80% death rate does not give me any comfort. This is nothing more or less than old fashioned (yes - I said it) common sense. If the risk of contacting Ebola was very low AND if the potential outcome was something like the flu - then we could discuss whether the nurse, the dr., and others' "rights" to run around, ride bikes, go bowling, etc. outweighed the risk of innocent citizens being sick for a week or two. BUT we are not - we are talking about weighing their "rights" (for 21 or 41 or whatever number of days) with the potential DEATH of someone who is an innocent citizen. smh (MOO)
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Since I was talking about Dr Duncan, who was out and about before he even developed a fever, I asked if you had any links to show that people at his stage of the illness were actually infectious or had passed on the disease.


Lyra500 said:
Well then please provide a link to show where people have picked up Ebola from someone who has just fever and no other symptoms - or even no fever at all. If this is what you are afraid might happen, what are you basing your fear on?

My thoughts are based on the evidence which we have available to us and the guidance and data gathered by the WHO over decades. I believe that makes them quite valid. Whay are your thoughts based on?
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It was then suggested that I was saying people with fever shoud not be isolated - not so.

Lyra500 said:
I have never suggested that people should not be isolated as soon as they run a fever - what is not logical is locking everyone away before then' just in case' they start to run a fever, or suggesting that someone who had not even developed a fever posed a huge Ebola risk to the public at large by going jogging or riding the subway.



The protocols are designed to pick people up as soon as they get the early signs of a potential infection, at which point they are isolated and tested and then treated according to the test results.
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JudyBolton said:
You said, (and I quote) "Well then please provide a link to show where people have picked up Ebola from someone who has just fever and no other symptoms - or even no fever at all."

So if you were not suggesting that people should be isolated who were running a fever - why did you ask me to provide a link showing that you can pick up Ebola from someone with a fever? Not being argumentative but I don't think you are being consistent about the fever issue.
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The reason I asked, is because when I said that I did not believe anyone would pick up Ebola from Dr Spencer, you suggested that was a credible risk:

.....with the potential DEATH of someone who is an innocent citizen.
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I do not believe that Dr Duncan posed a risk or that what he did had the potential to cause the death of anyone. He monitored his temperature, his temperature went up - he referred himself in to medical care before it even reached the threshold.

So I asked if there were any links to evidence which showed that the procedure he followed had indeed resulted in the spread of Ebola.

Anyway, I think this discussion has probably run its course so we may have to agree to disagree.

It is very late where I am and I need to sleep.

Good night.
 
Inthedetails said:
My guess would be because she was exposed to his bodily fluid. In the case of their likely intimate contact, it seems a reasonable response.
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Um... So then, you can't catch ebola when the only symptom is fever. But you might be able to catch ebola having intercourse with a person before they got the fever. Is that what you are saying? Does that make sense? It doesn't to me. Spencer would be showing good judgement having intercourse before his 21 days were up??

The fact is that people are getting tracked if they had contact with someone that only had a fever. Look how they cleaned up the plane Amber was on and notified all the passengers. Even quarantined Nina's dog, and she only had a mild fever. Bottom line: If you are not contageous with only a fever, why is all this tracking going on. This is why people are so fearful. The powers that be are sending mixed messages.
 
Detective Klimpt said:
Um... So then, you can't catch ebola when the only symptom is fever. But you might be able to catch ebola having intercourse with a person before they got the fever. Is that what you are saying? Does that make sense? It doesn't to me. Spencer would be showing good judgement having intercourse before his 21 days were up??

The fact is that people are getting tracked if they had contact with someone that only had a fever. Look how they cleaned up the plane Amber was on and notified all the passengers. Even quarantined Nina's dog, and she only had a mild fever. Bottom line: If you are not contageous with only a fever, why is all this tracking going on. This is why people are so fearful. The powers that be are sending mixed messages.
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Both Amber AND Nina were ill with the virus. We don't know what the precise moment was WHEN they may have become contagious. Your point about cleaning the plane and quarantining a dog when there was in fact potential of spreading the virus is WHAT?
Precaution, possibility, probability.
 
CARIIS said:
I think that is where media failed folks. They did not give it a "progressive" feel. They made it concrete and linear while it isn’t. No illness is. No one gets sick exactly like another person. Ever! . But they have gotten it to where it is in a box. X = y always then r = s.

There are however "ways"the human body responds to things that are not supposed to be inside! I am visual – if we think about both the virus and the antibodies as being mixed in water, and filling up a swimming pool, the more water, the more virus, more antibodies and higher fever. It takes time to fill up the pool , and it takes time for the pool to overlfow.

It is a process. They totally ,IMO, did a horrible job as "viral loading" is so important in virus stuff. Makes sense – more virus- higher concentrations. More concentrated, worse symptoms, higher fever. The test is not testing "for" Ebola.

The test is hunting for a detectable load, or quantity of the virus in the bloodstream and cells. Until the loading is high enough for both - to be detected in the test and trigger a fever it make sense that the person is not contagious simply because the concentration of the virus in the fluids isn’t even high enough for the body to register and start a fever nor for the test to detect.

But there will be thresholds, in which the two correlate as it relates to becoming contagious. The notion that someones viral load is going to be high enough to be transmitted while at the same time not regustering in the test or a fever beginning just is not the way it works. Same with any infection.

So, its like, IMO, going up a hill the higher up you are, and you fall (!) the harder your going to hit. But anything concentrated does influence what "it" does. And the concentration level does impact the whole thing.

Viral loads are solely used in HIV. It dictates treatment, it dictates which antivirals, it dictates the determination of weather of one anti viral is working or not. It determines how an individual feels , It determines what damage is done to organs .

Viral loading is in essence the entire thing.........................IMO!
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While we know enough about HIV now to determine treatment based on virus load - or perhaps CD3/CD4 levels, there has been an admission that we don't know EVERYTHING there is to know about the ebola virus. This stuff is uncharted territory. Generalizing one to another is akin to generalizing a whale to an elephant!!! Sure both are mammals but there are VAST differences.
perhaps until it is better understood, erring on the side of caution is the best approach?

seems to me that I've been involved in collecting samples to measure sloughing of virus other than HIV- H1N1 springs to mind.... so, that is an incorrect statement. it is not " solely in HIV", it doesn't determine when damage is done from the virus or inflammation simply that the illness is over.
 
Lyra500 said:
There is a difference between monitoring and quarantining.

It is perfectly sensible to ask people to check their temperature twice a day, but when people in some states who have no symptoms and have not been in direct unprotected contact with Ebola patients are (in effect) put under house arrest despite being symptom free that seems illogical.

The Pentagon is doing likewise for all returning soldiers - they will all be under lock down for 21 days even though they are not coming into contact with patients or working in the treatment centres. the rationale just isn't based on experience or the facts of disease progression.

I have to ask, if people currently returning from West Africa having worked for MSF, Save the Children, WHO etc are such a huge Ebola risk, why have none of the returning medics and nurses who have arrived back in the US since the beginning of August developed Ebola or caused a problem - what do people think has changed?
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Tonight I heard on NBC nightly news that WHO said many of it's HCW returning from Africa were spending the 21 days in Europe rather than returning to the ebola stigma in the US. Can't say that I blame then. It's a no brainer..............spend 21 days touring in Europe or spend 21 days looking at the 4 walls of your house.
 
faw720 said:
Tonight I heard on NBC nightly news that WHO said many of it's HCW returning from Africa were spending the 21 days in Europe rather than returning to the ebola stigma in the US. Can't say that I blame then. It's a no brainer..............spend 21 days touring in Europe or spend 21 days looking at the 4 walls of your house.
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Well, there can't be many of them. There have only been 148 total who have gone over ever.
 
Lyra500 said:
There is a difference between monitoring and quarantining.

It is perfectly sensible to ask people to check their temperature twice a day, but when people in some states who have no symptoms and have not been in direct unprotected contact with Ebola patients are (in effect) put under house arrest despite being symptom free that seems illogical.

The Pentagon is doing likewise for all returning soldiers - they will all be under lock down for 21 days even though they are not coming into contact with patients or working in the treatment centres. the rationale just isn't based on experience or the facts of disease progression.

I have to ask, if people currently returning from West Africa having worked for MSF, Save the Children, WHO etc are such a huge Ebola risk, why have none of the returning medics and nurses who have arrived back in the US since the beginning of August developed Ebola or caused a problem - what do people think has changed?
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Huh??? Spencer, Spanish nurse, mystery patient etc....
 
Inthedetails said:
Spencer was in the early stages and sought early treatment. The original question was about someone in active stages who didn't seek treatment.
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And I was responding to the definitive statement as to how ebola patients feel and behave.

Some health care professional expressed concern about why Dr Spencer did not seek treatment earlier as they felt that he was significantly ill. "A health care worker at the hospital said that Dr. Spencer seemed very sick, and it was unclear to the medical staff why he had not gone to the hospital earlier, since his fever was high." http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/n...-bellevue-hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0
 
Harmony2 said:
New thread: http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?261012-Ebola-outbreak-general-thread-9

please click the link to move the discussion over.
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