Identified! FL - Big Coppitt Key, 'Valentine Jane Doe' 49UFFL, 16-25, Feb'91 - Wanda Deann Kirkum *killer died*

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Thanks carbuff for posting the pictures as side by sides! Someday I've really got to learn how to do that. I have all sorts of pics on my desktop to compare but never sure how to post them like that. Yeah, the nose in the side shot seems longer on Misty than our Doe.
 
So, has the Estes girl been submitted (from the first post on here)? I think she looks exactly like this doe!
 
was that the area where nilsa padilla's boyfriend killed her in 85? i think he and the little girls lived there for some years after.
 
I have been silently following several cases for months now, but this will be my first time posting to discuss a specific one. That being said, hopefully I don't make too many mistakes!

I stumbled upon a missing girl from Florida the other day and thought back to Valentine Jane Doe. The girl is Tavia Elizabeth Bailey- http://www.nampn.org/cases/bailey_tavia.html

Tavia went missing from Pensacola FL at the end of 1985, which is quite a large time gap, but Tavia's circumstances state that she was a frequent runaway who mentioned going to New York. Could she have ran away and stayed out of contact with her family for almost six years? I don't know.

Some of the stats add up, and some of them don't.

-Tavia was 15 when she disappeared, making her 21 when VD was found.

-Tavia's height is 5'3, an inch shorter than VD's estimate of 5'4-5'7.

-Tavia's eyecolor is brown, VD's is brown-green.

-Tavia had BLONDE hair while VD had brown.


- Tavia's ears were pierced several times, which was what originally made me think of Valentine Doe. (VD had four piercings in each ear)

- They are both from Florida, however, Tavia went missing in Pensacola which is about 12 hours away from where VD was found.


Thoughts? It's a pretty big stretch, but I personally see a resemblance in appearance too. IMO they have similar facial structures and nasal bridge.

bailey_tavia.jpgNCMU1103868c1.jpg 11255136_906653692710219_362221147_n.jpg
 
That's an interesting possibility, EffyElsewhere. The blonde-to-brown hair doesn't seem like a big issue; Tavia's blonde is quite dark and hair often darkens as you get older. And I do see the resemblance facially.
 
I just realized that Tavia's DNA is entered in CODIS; does that mean it would have been an automatic rule-out?
 
I see a resemblance, for sure. Face shape, nose, the pronounced cupid's bow of her top lip...looks close!
 
EffyElsewhere said:
I just realized that Tavia's DNA is entered in CODIS; does that mean it would have been an automatic rule-out?
Click to expand...

As I've stated before, both Valentine Doe and Tavia have their DNA available in CODIS. I'm not too familiar with how that works, but I recall reading on other threads that CODIS would have automatically compared the two already. Can anyone confirm this? If that's not the case, I believe Tavia is a good possibility. I don't have any experience with submitting matches, but if anyone wants to turn it in, I say go for it!
 
EffyElsewhere said:
As I've stated before, both Valentine Doe and Tavia have their DNA available in CODIS. I'm not too familiar with how that works, but I recall reading on other threads that CODIS would have automatically compared the two already. Can anyone confirm this? If that's not the case, I believe Tavia is a good possibility. I don't have any experience with submitting matches, but if anyone wants to turn it in, I say go for it!
Click to expand...

We're getting conflicting information about whether some DNA possibilities are being run automatically or not, and there's the whole question of whether it's mDNA or nucDNA, and if it's in the same database, and and and. So basically unless we know for sure that the UID and the MP have the same kind of DNA stored in the same database, we should submit it. And some people who do a lot of submissions are saying some comparisons are done only on request, so we should submit everything.
 
I don't assume; there are different levels to be compared at from what I heard
 
carbuff said:
Yes, you said in a few words what took me a lengthy paragraph :p
Click to expand...

Sorry CB; I was on my cell; wasn't loading right due to the ads; I then put my cell down; picked it back up when I had a few minutes to type; wanted to say more but didn't have that much time & I never reloaded the thread; so your reply wasn't there lol

You're correct; since we don't know; we submit. I believe that I was told there are various levels with CODIS too which would make sense
 
Roselvr said:
Sorry CB; I was on my cell; wasn't loading right due to the ads; I then put my cell down; picked it back up when I had a few minutes to type; wanted to say more but didn't have that much time & I never reloaded the thread; so your reply wasn't there lol

You're correct; since we don't know; we submit. I believe that I was told there are various levels with CODIS too which would make sense
Click to expand...

I was reading some more about the general issue last night and found out that when there are less than the 13 "loci" CODIS requires, the odds of a false positive go up astronomically, and the problem gets worse the more entries there are in the database. If I understood it correctly, with a 9-loci entry, the odds are around one in a million that a random person will share those ten same loci. So if there are a million entries in the database, it becomes almost a certainty that there will be a match that isn't a match. If there are 13 loci, the odds are more like one in a quadrillion.

Here's one article. It's dense and detailed and I haven't finished reading it yet: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1003.bobelian.html
 
I thank you both for clearing that up, Roselvr and Carbuff. Would someone mind submitting Tavia for comparison? I'm new to the WS community and I wouldn't know how to.

Valentine Doe - NamUs UP #6182
Tavia Bailey NamUs MP #5815
 
I highly think Sara Estes needs to be re-examined and resubmitted; only this time through a phone call with someone from both Monroe County S.O. and Louisville P.D. Phone calls have worked for me in the past in attempts to have someone identified. Case in point, on the case I've been following on the Columbia County (FL) John Doe 1994, I made a phone call to the Leon County Sheriffs Office to check out a possibility of Erik Patchin possibly being the JD. And a couple of years ago, I made phone calls to the Columbia Co. (FL) Sheriffs Office and the Broward Sheriffs Office to attempt a match on the Columbia Co. John Doe (1974) and a missing person named Allan Kaplan. That came out unfounded; but I made the phone calls, and any updates from there were emails. If anything, I could look a little more into this case and make the phone calls. I am down for a challenge!
 
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