GUILTY UK - Helen Bailey, 51, Royston, 11 April 2016 #1

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Thanks for the update Ravenette.

Such a pity that friends are not willing to do a reconstruction and issue an accurate timeline.

This report says she was seen by 3 dog walkers in the morning on April 11. I have read that she was sighted in the afternoon, at 2.45pm on this day, by the dog walkers. Things like this make it harder for anyone to help.
 
Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you...April-investigate-makes-women-walk-lives.html


Apropos previous posts, and as I queried here too before, this note: was it handwritten or typed? Why is this not being revealed? If the former, has it been verified by a handwriting expert that it is indeed her writing and not a forgery?

I could go with this break bit but for the fact that she has made contact with nobody. Would she really also not contact her mother, who she would be in regular contact with before, a woman in her 80s who is near the end of her life?

I wonder what their financial situation was like. Does he stand to gain? Was he in financial difficulties? That house is apparently worth a few million. Is it in her name, or joint?

Here's two 'imagined' scenarios.

1. She has been having doubts about the relationship, feels trapped, burdened, whatever. Goes out walking the dog that Monday morning and makes up her mind to leave. Goes back to house, he's out, decides to leave note as she doesn't want to speak to him direct to say going away. However, before she can get her things together, he returns. An argument ensues and in the struggle she dies. He leaves it for few days and goes to Broadstairs on pretense of looking for her, but in fact to dispose of body.

2. She has been having doubts about the relationship, feels trapped, burdened, whatever. Goes out walking the dog that Monday morning and makes up her mind to leave. Goes back to the house, he's out but when he returns an argument ensues when she says she's had enough and wants to leave. In the struggle she dies. He leaves it for few days to prepare a story, writes the note about Broadstairs himself, and then goes there on pretense of looking for her, but in fact to dispose of body.
 
That Stat was interesting.... 74% are found within 24 hrs and only 5% are still missing after one week
 
mrazda71 said:
Ultimately, it's a flipping mystery, a horrible one :( but I'm absolutely sure that only 2% of what Police know has been made public and IF they suspected foul play in any way then her partner would've been the first person they'd have in for questioning.
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Unfortunately, without actual evidence of foul play: a body or remains, a crime scene or a witness, LE can't openly investigate it as a homicide.

As long as it's possible that she A. voluntarily left and has decided not to contact any friends or family, and is capable/desirous of surviving without her identity, credit cards, bank account, retirement savings, homes, career, etc etc, (as the husband appears to maintain is what has happened) or B. committed suicide in such a way that she managed to conceal both her own body and Boris, then they can't pursue a criminal investigation in case those things did happen.

It happens a lot on this forum. IMO, LE are waiting and watching, it's all they can do.
 
Missing People stats

Had a scroll through some figures the other day - very interesting.

91% of cases of missing people are solved within 48 hours
95% solved by the end of the first week
99% solved within one year

34% of missing people are Adults

Amongst Adults the highest missing levels are
Age 24 - 30 followed by age 18 - 23

When I searched on missing people for East of England, Helen is the only female currently showing as missing for more than one month.
 
Thinking about those two alternatives, or more importantly, what BOTH alternatives imply....1) yes, she could survive without her own ID, credit cards, etc., especially if she had already set up alternative identification, hid money, etc. 2) although unlikely, she could have determined a way of suicide that left no trace of her or Boris, although I'm not sure what that would be.

The thing about both of these alternatives is this: They would seem to almost guarantee that her boyfriend/fiance would be left as main focus of her disappearance. Why someone might do THAT is fraught with troubling possibilities...possibilities that seem not to fit Helen's known character and/or personality.

Wonder if LE have investigated 1) full timeline/whereabouts of boyfriend's two sons week prior and week after Helen went missing, with special attention to vehicles rented OR cheap vehicle purchased by ANY of three men in the household near time of Helen's disappearance. Given the rural nature of area, it seems a vehicle is the missing clue...find that; second to that, what day is trash pickup in the immediate area, and where is it taken and by what kind of vehicle. All lurid lines of inquiry, I know, but at this point, desperate circumstances may call for desperate measures. Helen's family deserves the answers.
 
MillyM said:
Is it who we - well I certainly as you know - thought? Though I take no pleasure in being right.

Man arrested on suspicion of murdering missing author, Helen Bailey

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...n-bail/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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Oh wow ! just as you thought indeed Milly. I did suspect but I tried so hard to think it was not the case.

And, I will have to scroll back to check if I put it on here, but my OH said to me, ages back when I talked to him about this...follow the money !!

Her poor friends and family, feeling sorry for the sc*m.

I wonder if she told him that it wasn't working and she wanted out and he saw the money slipping away.
 
I see the Where is Helen Bailey FB page has been taken down. I was just looking at it, about one hour ago, thinking that it was 3 months to the day that Helen had gone missing and wondering why they had not put a new note up. Now I can see why.
 
Really? Not seen there. The police aren't fools and they don't give out to the public ALL the facts they have, but it is standard in a case like this for suspicions to fall on an immediate family member or someone known to the person. Because it does so frequently in the case of murder come down to the assailant being related or known to the victim.

Obviously we must be cautious here, as an arrest is one thing, a charge another. But as I am sure they (police) were doing, as I intimated before, was going through with a fine tooth comb her relationship with her partner, their financial situation, and how others saw them as a couple and thoughts as to his personality.
 
MillyM said:
Really? Not seen there. The police aren't fools and they don't give out to the public ALL the facts they have, but it is standard in a case like this for suspicions to fall on an immediate family member or someone known to the person. Because it does so frequently in the case of murder come down to the assailant being related or known to the victim.

Obviously we must be cautious here, as an arrest is one thing, a charge another. But as I am sure they (police) were doing, as I intimated before, was going through with a fine tooth comb her relationship with her partner, their financial situation, and how others saw them as a couple and thoughts as to his personality.
Click to expand...

I wonder if they did do any ANPR on the car, as we discussed. And checked how long the car took to get from Royston to Broadstairs.
 
Hey, let's not assume the 55 year old man from Royston who has been arrested in Broadstairs, is the same as Helen's 55 year old partner from Royston who often stayed in Broadstairs.

I have only one word to say for this whole thing and I thought it from day dot:

Textbook.
 
And, if she is dead, it means poor little Boris is too. Just horrible. :-(
 
MillyM said:
And, if she is dead, it means poor little Boris is too. Just horrible. :-(
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Indeed. That is a horrible thought.

She seemed such a lovely person. I have read all of her blog and her book and her character is so warm and caring. The saddest line, looking at it now, is how she talked about having found her happy ending with her new partner.
 
Oh wow. I looked at my bookmarked page this morning and wondered if we would ever get an update on this case.

So many times I wanted to discuss and explore this angle in depth but decided against it, because of forum protocol.

I am not surprised in the slightest. How many times I've looked at his references to Boris the dog, there was another one recently, and I thought uh-oh, not convincing, too contrived.

I suspect what's happened is they've been keeping eyes on him and seen something suspicious about his behaviour in Broadstairs.
 
MillyM said:
And, if she is dead, it means poor little Boris is too. Just horrible. :-(
Click to expand...

I guess we'll know pretty soon - if her body is found in the next few days it's because he fessed up. If not we could be in for a rocky ride!
 
Alyce said:
Just found this


http://www.royston-crow.co.uk/news/...aising_boost_from_charity_bike_ride_1_4589489



Appealing for information regarding Helen’s whereabouts, her partner Ian Stewart said: “Days have become weeks and weeks have become months – Helen please don’t let months become years.

“Helen, bring Boris home or ring 116 000. Life without you is just wrong.”
Click to expand...

BIB that's the quote. Not Helen come home, just - bring Boris home.

I'm not diminishing the value of a dog at all. But that's not natural, it misses the mark. Yes we all want missing pets to come back home, but he's made it his primary if not equal focus in both appeals. IMO you worry about the person and if their pet comes home safely with them that's a bonus.

What would I think if I went missing (with my cat) and saw an appeal from my family saying bring the cat back. We miss the cat!
 
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