CA - Hannah,16,Devonte,15,&Ciera Hart,12 (fnd deceased),Mendocino Cty,26 Mar 2018 #6

[claudianunes]

Claudia, I really enjoy your comments, but my old eyes have a hard time reading your tiny and faint font. Are you able to use the normal size and darkness Arial font?

Sure, no problem at all!

 

[Lilibet]

Sure, no problem at all!

Aaaahhhh, much better! My eyes thank you!

 

[Lilibet]

I just wanted to clarify the mathematics here. I am still catching up a few pages back, so my apologies if this has been covered, but I've seen a couple of answers, none of which was completely correct. This is regarding the probability that the two missing would be the same two who had reached out for help. I teach this kind of finite mathematics at University, but I'm not verified in that regard on this website, so not sure whether I'm allowed to claim that expertise or not.

If you have 8 people, there are 28 different pairs you can make, assuming the order doesn't matter. (In other words, the pair of Devonte and Hannah is the same as the pair of Hannah and Devonte.) If there were 8 bodies in the car, and 2 of them were not found, the chances of those 2 being Devonte and Hannah are 1/28, or about 3.6%.

If you're considering the children only, so 6 people total, the chances are 1/15 or about 6.7% of those being the missing two. So the chance of it being those two specifically who are missing is low, but not so low that it couldn't conceivably happen by coincidence.

Thank you. Math is a foreign language to me. But haven’t we known from the beginning that Hannah, Devonte and Ciera were missing? LE was able to identify the others, leaving those three unaccounted for until Ciera was found and identified. We know Devonte and Hanna reached out for help and we know they are missing.

 

[PearlClutcher]

Just thinking here: Why would the Hart's reject a meeting with the officer in the photo (as well as the photographer?) They seemed to always be putting their children "front and center", taking them to very public places/situations, and photographing them, then putting these photos online. They were incessantly photographing them, it would seem. So, privacy doesn't seem to be an issue.

Now, JH stated that there were many negative reactions to the photo but, how would this affect having a private meeting with either the photographer or the officer?

Here is a thought, which just struck me. Maybe the fact that the white officer gave a wonderful, generous hug and smile to Devonte didn't fit the image the Hart's liked to convey, which someone touched on earlier: Generous white couple adopt poor, drug addicted/affected, disadvantaged, etc., children and aren't they so wonderful for doing so? The hug with the white officer took a little of this heroism/wonderfulness away from Jen (and Sarah?) in her eyes. Everything about that photo they viewed as "taking away" from them, so didn't want to have anything to do with any of it -the photographer, officer- anything/one.

Any thoughts here?

They supposedly rejected the "free hugs" movement guy who wanted to mentor Devonte. They also rejected a fellow festival goer, who was also adopted, who wanted to help with the girls.

 

[bluesneakers]

They supposedly rejected the "free hugs" movement guy who wanted to mentor Devonte. They also rejected a fellow festival goer, who was also adopted, who wanted to help with the girls.

No one was getting near those kids.

 

[Sleuth99]

No one was getting near those kids.

Except for the neighbor that gave them piano lessons...


MOO*

 

[bluesneakers]

Except for the neighbor that gave them piano lessons...


MOO*

Okay, I'll amend my comment.

No one not on their pre-approved list was getting near those kids.

 

[Doghairrules]

I just wanted to clarify the mathematics here. I am still catching up a few pages back, so my apologies if this has been covered, but I've seen a couple of answers, none of which was completely correct. This is regarding the probability that the two missing would be the same two who had reached out for help. I teach this kind of finite mathematics at University, but I'm not verified in that regard on this website, so not sure whether I'm allowed to claim that expertise or not.

If you have 8 people, there are 28 different pairs you can make, assuming the order doesn't matter. (In other words, the pair of Devonte and Hannah is the same as the pair of Hannah and Devonte.) If there were 8 bodies in the car, and 2 of them were not found, the chances of those 2 being Devonte and Hannah are 1/28, or about 3.6%.

If you're considering the children only, so 6 people total, the chances are 1/15 or about 6.7% of those being the missing two. So the chance of it being those two specifically who are missing is low, but not so low that it couldn't conceivably happen by coincidence.

Math is hard. Thank you so much!!!

 

[Blue5591]

Thank you. Math is a foreign language to me. But haven’t we known from the beginning that Hannah, Devonte and Ciera were missing? LE was able to identify the others, leaving those three unaccounted for until Ciera was found and identified. We know Devonte and Hanna reached out for help and we know they are missing.

Yes, I believe (if I am understanding these stats correctly) she means what are the statistics or probability that the only 2 children unaccounted for happen to be the 2 who also sought help and or were fighting back, is that correct?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[burblestein]

An update from local MSM: http://theava.com/archives/81561

Cierra has been identified through DNA. It has been established that she was 12 years old, not 15.

 

[Blue5591]

Thank you. Math is a foreign language to me. But haven’t we known from the beginning that Hannah, Devonte and Ciera were missing? LE was able to identify the others, leaving those three unaccounted for until Ciera was found and identified. We know Devonte and Hanna reached out for help and we know they are missing.

Which to clarify more, think she is showing that the probability of any pair of kids not being found is pretty low which also means the probability of it being those 2 specifically should be low as well, but we know it's not since we know they are the 2 still missing. So it is in that low probability that makes it a higher probability that they were not in car or shall I say gives greater hope to the possibility they were not in car at all. I think that is correct if I am recalling statistics correctly. Lol

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[rosemadderlake]

Just thinking here: Why would the Hart's reject a meeting with the officer in the photo (as well as the photographer?) They seemed to always be putting their children "front and center", taking them to very public places/situations, and photographing them, then putting these photos online. They were incessantly photographing them, it would seem. So, privacy doesn't seem to be an issue.

Now, JH stated that there were many negative reactions to the photo but, how would this affect having a private meeting with either the photographer or the officer?

Here is a thought, which just struck me. Maybe the fact that the white officer gave a wonderful, generous hug and smile to Devonte didn't fit the image the Hart's liked to convey, which someone touched on earlier: Generous white couple adopt poor, drug addicted/affected, disadvantaged, etc., children and aren't they so wonderful for doing so? The hug with the white officer took a little of this heroism/wonderfulness away from Jen (and Sarah?) in her eyes. Everything about that photo they viewed as "taking away" from them, so didn't want to have anything to do with any of it -the photographer, officer- anything/one.

Any thoughts here?

Good Q, and a defining one. Without knowing their upbringing, demographics, or why they are both estranged from their families, they could be acting out of a nonacceptance rebellion, saving each other, more rebellion collecting and saving a bunch of kids, ultimate rebellion and sacrificing everyone from the injustice they have perceived their whole lives.

So they took it all away from these innocent kids. They took their images and used them to fill the gaping hole in their souls. I think it is deeper than we'll ever know.

 

[goldenbear]

I talked with someone who just returned from the area. They said the sea was rough. There were mudslides blocking roads, and a bridge was out. Thus it could be a little time before LE is able to search.

 

[Sleuth99]

Okay, I'll amend my comment.

No one not on their pre-approved list was getting near those kids.

I knew what you meant [emoji1476] For some reason they opened up to this neighbor yet the Dekalbs would have never known children were there. So I'd like to learn why he qualified for the pre-approved list.


MOO*

 

[human]

Good Q, and a defining one. Without knowing their upbringing, demographics, or why they are both estranged from their families, they could be acting out of a nonacceptance rebellion, saving each other, more rebellion collecting and saving a bunch of kids, ultimate rebellion and sacrificing everyone from the injustice they have perceived their whole lives.

So they took it all away from these innocent kids. They took their images and used them to fill the gaping hole in their souls. I think it is deeper than we'll ever know.

If you look at Sarah’s mothers FB, she is very much a liberal. That does not man that Sarah did not receive the same treatment she dished out.

But politically, they look to be alike

 

[Sleuth99]

I talked with someone who just returned from the area. They said the sea was rough. There were mudslides blocking roads, and a bridge was out. Thus it could be a little time before LE is able to search.

Goldenbear... lol you're killing me with your intel [emoji38] you have to add some links or something


MOO*

 

[PearlClutcher]

I knew what you meant [emoji1476] For some reason they opened up to this neighbor yet the Dekalbs would have never known children were there. So I'd like to learn why he qualified for the pre-approved list.


MOO*

It's baffling. Jen and Sarah abused the kids on one hand and allowed things like piano lessons and amusement parks on the other. Maybe the two just didn't know how to discipline properly. Some parents believe in food deprivation and "spankings" as "good" forms of punishment. Especially, "old school" disciplinarians.

 

[MzOpinion8d]

I knew what you meant [emoji1476] For some reason they opened up to this neighbor yet the Dekalbs would have never known children were there. So I'd like to learn why he qualified for the pre-approved list.


MOO*

My guess would be that he was of use to them. Teaching piano lessons fits in with their apparent love of music, and if any of the kids were the least bit talented it would be a way to get more attention.

 

[Breamworthy]

Yes, I believe (if I am understanding these stats correctly) she means what are the statistics or probability that the only 2 children unaccounted for happen to be the 2 who also sought help and or were fighting back, is that correct?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes, that's right. Of course, now that we know they are the two missing, the chances of them being the two missing are 100% since that's what happened. But I'm talking about the statistical likelihood of that happening, since many have commented on the "coincidence" of the two who are missing being the two who went for help. Someone had asked back in the last thread what the likelihood by pure chance of it being those two who would end up not being found if they were all in the car, and there were a couple of incorrect answers, so just clarifying that.

I think a lot of people have the sense that those two bodies not being found suggests that something happened to those two children before the crash. This just give some context to that idea, but doesn't prove or disprove it.

 

[Sleuth99]

Ok I'm going for it...

I think one or both of these women had dad issues and/or detached moms. I think the Hart women were more open to White men embracing their children in a more public manner (white police officers and that singer) and shunned women who showed concern for their children. Black people didn't have a chance at getting close to these children so that was out of the question. I think about that mannequin incident and their preference for young children. I think that something happened in their transition from child to adolescent and on that they were holding onto. This aided them in their evil doings.

This is speculation, but my speculation hasn't been off yet so I'm sticking with it.


MOO*