I think there's 4 possibilities in this case, and I'll list them from most likely to least (IMO).
1. Asha's family is responsible for her disappearance. To me this is the only scenario that doesn't require all kinds of logical leaps of faith about why she left home that morning. The simple answer is she didn't. Whatever happened took place at home and the other evidence was staged to take attention away from home. I have pretty much no faith in the eyewitnesses until I hear more directly from them. Statistically speaking, young girls in Asha's age range that go missing do so because a family member has harmed them.
2. Asha was groomed, abducted and murdered. I definitely think she could have been in contact with someone older who had an agenda and carefully earned her trust. The person is almost certainly a local.
3. Asha ran away on an adventure and met with foul play from a stranger. Possible, but I think much less likely than the first two scenarios because 4 AM with 30 degree weather is extremely odd timing for an adventure.
4. Asha was abducted and sold to an underground adoption agency and may or may not still be living. Don't really buy this one but I've heard it floated out there. I think it's probably the only chance for Asha to still be alive.