OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[jtfolden]

No professional directly involved in the case has ever made a statement as to where they think Brian is, inside or under the building or otherwise.

Even you know that's not true. Hurst himself has stated he believes Brian exited the building, most likely via the construction area.

 

[Kaie]

Even you know that's not true. Hurst himself has stated he believes Brian exited the building, most likely via the construction area.

That's not a statement at to where Hurst thinks Brian is. I believe what itsrak means is that no professional directly involved with the case has ever made a statement such as "I believe Brian met with foul play at the hands of someone he knew", or "I believe Brian is still alive and is living under an assumed name", etc...

And I'm not splitting hairs here... a statement about which direction Brian most likely took from the moment he is gone from the security camera's view, is an entirely different thing to where he is currently located.

 

[itsrak]

Even you know that's not true. Hurst himself has stated he believes Brian exited the building, most likely via the construction area.

Hurst stated that Brian 'most likely' made it out of the construction area. He does not know where Brian is, and he never 'made a statement as to where they think Brian is', and you know that.

 

[itsrak]

An inebriated bar patron last seen standing outside a bar in a building goes missing. Police determine that one person who entered the building that evening fails to appear on video departing the building - and it is the missing guy. Turns out, there is a 'completely dug up' and 'difficult to navigate' active construction area in the building. And lead investigator suggests missing guy may have entered the construction area and 'most likely' made it out. But been missing 13+ years now, never a credible sign of life outside the building. What are the chances he didn't make it out? Pretty high, IMO.

 

[jtfolden]

Hurst stated that Brian 'most likely' made it out of the construction area. He does not know where Brian is, and he never 'made a statement as to where they think Brian is', and you know that.

Yep, Hurst's opinion is that he most likely exited the building via the construction area. That may not tell us where his body currently is located *today* but it doesn't suggest Hurst thinks he is still in the building either.

Lots of people go missing and are never found. What are the chances that Brian is simply somewhere else that has NOT been searched OR that he is somewhere that:

- was repeatedly searched by LEO's.
- was repeatedly searched by family.
- was repeatedly searched by official search and cadaver dogs, and other search dogs, just within the first 10 days of disappearance.
- no evidence of his body was encountered by all of the above or ANY workers at any time as they finished up the unit for the tenant over the next 6 months.

also in light of:
- no evidence the construction area was in a condition that could not only kill someone but also where a body could fall and never be found.
- The camera that would have shown him going out the back exit is also the same one that *should* have shown him entering the construction area.
- A search dog tracked his scent from the building to a Wendy's parking lot.
- A homeless man insisted he saw Brian days after his disappearance.
- Brian's phone pinged off a cell tower 14 miles away from where he was last seen, 6 months after he vanished.

Chance that he did make it out of the building (one way or another, by foot or carried out) and his body is elsewhere -seems incredibly high to me.

 

[itsrak]

Yep, Hurst's opinion is that he most likely exited the building via the construction area. That may not tell us where his body currently is located *today* but it doesn't suggest Hurst thinks he is still in the building either. I find it interesting that Hurst does not rule out the possibility that Brian may not have made it out of the construction area.

Lots of people go missing and are never found. What are the chances that Brian is simply somewhere else that has NOT been searched OR that he is somewhere that:

- was repeatedly searched by LEO's. They didn't dig.
- was repeatedly searched by family. They didn't dig.
- was repeatedly searched by official search and cadaver dogs, and other search dogs, just within the first 10 days of disappearance. They didn't dig, and dogs aren't reliable.
- no evidence of his body was encountered by all of the above or ANY workers at any time as they finished up the unit for the tenant over the next 6 months. They probably didn't dig.

also in light of:
- no evidence the construction area was in a condition that could not only kill someone but also where a body could fall and never be found. No evidence that it was not. All we know is that it was an active construction area, and per lead investigator completely dug up and difficult to navigate.
- The camera that would have shown him going out the back exit is also the same one that *should* have shown him entering the construction area. False.
- A search dog tracked his scent from the building to a Wendy's parking lot. A dog headed for Wendy's - I like burgers too.
- A homeless man insisted he saw Brian days after his disappearance. !
- Brian's phone pinged off a cell tower 14 miles away from where he was last seen, 6 months after he vanished. Likely, per the carrier, a glitch.

Chance that he did make it out of the building (one way or another, by foot or carried out) and his body is elsewhere -seems incredibly high to me. Not a shred of credible evidence over 13 years suggesting that Brian made it out of the building, and video evidence suggests that one person that evening - coincidentally the missing guy, Brian - did not exit the property.

 

[jtfolden]

I find it interesting that Hurst does not rule out the possibility that Brian may not have made it out of the construction area.

Hurst didn't rule out he may have gotten out by an entirely different way, either. He doesn't even confirm he went INTO the construction area to begin with...if you really want to examine it further. There's ZERO known evidence, that we know of, that Brian left the second floor of the building aside from his absence.

Indeed, I have sometimes questioned if there is another way he went from the back that could reach the roof, etc, as an alternative.

They didn't dig.

We know this? According to Kelly Bruce, Hurst said the hole and pile of dirt that was present was searched.

Beyond that, there's nothing to suggest that there was anything in the construction area that needed to be excavated to find him.

and dogs aren't reliable.

As single dog may not be reliable, MULTIPLE dogs went through. It was extremely well searched.

- The camera that would have shown him going out the back exit is also the same one that *should* have shown him entering the construction area. False.

Oh? False how? It has been stated that a camera covers the hall leading to this area. It showed the band leaving that same way but not Brian. By all accounts Brian could not have gotten from the second floor to the door to the construction area without passing through the hall covered by the camera (unless you accept the camera somehow missed him).

Likely, per the carrier, a glitch.

Per the carrier the phone ringing could be a glitch OR the phone was turned on. The actual cell phone tower PING was considered a serious enough lead that Texas EquuSearch went to the trouble of searching Hilliard over a year later... There's more possible evidence for his phone being outside the building than there is for his body being inside it at this point.

Not a shred of credible evidence that Brian is still in the building. Indeed a serious lack of it considering how thoroughly it was searched. No known evidence Brian went down the back exit, no known evidence Brian walked down the back hall, no known evidence Brian entered the construction area, no known evidence he was inside it at all. This theory actually relies on the LACK of evidence to remain viable.

If you accept that he somehow made it all the way down to the construction area without any evidence then the same scenario also applies to him being able to leave the building - EXCEPT, the idea of him being lost in the comparatively small confines of construction area requires numerous additional, extremely unlikely hurdles that would have to have been crossed for him to never be found within such a finite space.

 

[itsrak]

Hurst didn't rule out he may have gotten out by an entirely different way, either. He doesn't even confirm he went INTO the construction area to begin with...if you really want to examine it further. There's ZERO known evidence, that we know of, that Brian left the second floor of the building aside from his absence.

Indeed, I have sometimes questioned if there is another way he went from the back that could reach the roof, etc, as an alternative.




We know this? According to Kelly Bruce, Hurst said the hole and pile of dirt that was present was searched.

Beyond that, there's nothing to suggest that there was anything in the construction area that needed to be excavated to find him.


As single dog may not be reliable, MULTIPLE dogs went through. It was extremely well searched.




Oh? False how? It has been stated that a camera covers the hall leading to this area. It showed the band leaving that same way but not Brian. By all accounts Brian could not have gotten from the second floor to the door to the construction area without passing through the hall covered by the camera (unless you accept the camera somehow missed him).



Per the carrier the phone ringing could be a glitch OR the phone was turned on. The actual cell phone tower PING was considered a serious enough lead that Texas EquuSearch went to the trouble of searching Hilliard over a year later... There's more possible evidence for his phone being outside the building than there is for his body being inside it at this point.

Not a shred of credible evidence that Brian is still in the building. Indeed a serious lack of it considering how thoroughly it was searched. No known evidence Brian went down the back exit, no known evidence Brian walked down the back hall, no known evidence Brian entered the construction area, no known evidence he was inside it at all. This theory actually relies on the LACK of evidence to remain viable.

If you accept that he somehow made it all the way down to the construction area without any evidence then the same scenario also applies to him being able to leave the building - EXCEPT, the idea of him being lost in the comparatively small confines of construction area requires numerous additional, extremely unlikely hurdles that would have to have been crossed for him to never be found within such a finite space.

We'll likely never agree. One day this mystery may be solved, hope I'm around to see it.

 

[jtfolden]

We'll likely never agree. One day this mystery may be solved, hope I'm around to see it.

No we probably won't. LOL As people have said before - "someone knows something". I don't know what the likelihood of that is at this late a date but I do agree with you in hoping we see the day he is found.

 

[neesaki]

No we probably won't. LOL As people have said before - "someone knows something". I don't know what the likelihood of that is at this late a date but I do agree with you in hoping we see the day he is found.

We'll likely never agree. One day this mystery may be solved, hope I'm around to see it.

jtfolden and itsrak, I just want to say that you both have made some really excellent points, and I, as I’m sure many others here really appreciate the thoughtful and intelligent discussion.
All of your posts make me think, sometimes at night when I need to be sleeping instead, lol.

So here we all are waiting for answers, I really hope we, and especially Brian’s brother, will have them some day soon. I’m really looking forward to learning something new from Kelly’s research.
In the meantime, let’s keep up the brainstorming and the dialogue. Please?

 

[itsrak]

No we probably won't. LOL As people have said before - "someone knows something". I don't know what the likelihood of that is at this late a date but I do agree with you in hoping we see the day he is found.

Naturally (!), I don't agree with your assertion that someone knows something. I think it likely in this case that no one knew then, no one knows now. Just a quick, silent, freak, un-witnessed accidental death right there in the building. Poof. No one to even 'spill the beans'.

 

[Kaie]

Naturally (!), I don't agree with your assertion that someone knows something. I think it likely in this case that no one knew then, no one knows now. Just a quick, silent, freak, un-witnessed accidental death right there in the building. Poof. No one to even 'spill the beans'.

Unless the thing they know (whoever "they" may be) is just how possible this scenario is, and even just admitting that would be considered "spilling the beans". It feel like there is a bit of a concerted effort to steer people off the construction site theory... an effort that doesn't exist for any other theory. That coupled with the fact that it's a university owned building all just makes me feel a bit uneasy. I don't think anyone knows that Brian remains at that site... I do think that if he is there, then there might be those who would rather not know... and that they are people with power.

 

[itsrak]

Unless the thing they know (whoever "they" may be) is just how possible this scenario is, and even just admitting that would be considered "spilling the beans". It feel like there is a bit of a concerted effort to steer people off the construction site theory... an effort that doesn't exist for any other theory. That coupled with the fact that it's a university owned building all just makes me feel a bit uneasy. I don't think anyone knows that Brian remains at that site... I do think that if he is there, then there might be those who would rather not know... and that they are people with power.

As I'd noted previously, I stopped in Columbus several days ago to have a look at the site of Brian's disappearance, the location at which he was last seen, the location from which there is no evidence he ever exited on 4/1/06. Didn't learn much new. Mainly, I saw a lot of students having a good time. OSU's gotta be a fun place to got to college, near as I can tell.

Did a bit of digging today. Turns out, the space in which the Tuna was located, and in which Brian was last seen, is part of a building that is owned by The Board of Trustees of The Ohio State University. Near as I can tell, the same entity owned it when construction began in 2005, and has owned it since. Here is info from the Franklin County assessor's office:

Franklin County Treasurer - Property Search

The property includes two components divided by the street level open-air plaza area between them - the north piece, which is leased to several bars and restaurants and office tenants, and the south piece, which is leased to the Gateway Theatre, office tenants, Mad Mexx restaurant, and until recently the Ugly Toona Saloona, and at one time to Sunflower Market.

So, basically, OSU alumnus and then OSU med school student Brian Shaffer disappeared in a property owned by (and near as I can tell developed by)....OSU.

View attachment 134979

Has The Ohio State University done anything to find one of its own? Would they have any incentive to endeavor to find one of their own, in one of their own properties, the treacherous and 'completely dug up' 'construction area' (circa 4/1/06) of which was apparently (and based on comments of the CPD's lead detective on the case) potentially not adequately secured....?

See above concerning ownership of property in which Brian was last seen...

 

[neesaki]

Sgt. Hurst's words - he characterized the construction area as having been in a 'completely dug up' state, are recorded, and can thus be listened to fully in context and verbatim...

Hey, itsrak, I totally get what you’re saying, but fwiw, I’ve learned from a lot of cases here that LE are notorious for using ambiguous language, i.e., inaccurate. In fact I’m following a case here now as we speak in which LE has been vague and ambiguous, to the point of possibly misleading.

I sincerely hope I’m not coming across as being argumentative, as that’s not my intention at all. I really do appreciate and value your opinions.

 

[itsrak]

Hey, itsrak, I totally get what you’re saying, but fwiw, I’ve learned from a lot of cases here that LE are notorious for using ambiguous language, i.e., inaccurate. In fact I’m following a case here now as we speak in which LE has been vague and ambiguous, to the point of possibly misleading.

I sincerely hope I’m not coming across as being argumentative, as that’s not my intention at all. I really do appreciate and value your opinions.

Yeah, I know LE can strategically mislead when discussing unsolved cases, but what might the motive be to describe the construction area as 'completely dug up' if it was not?

 

[jtfolden]

Naturally (!), I don't agree with your assertion that someone knows something. I think it likely in this case that no one knew then, no one knows now. Just a quick, silent, freak, un-witnessed accidental death right there in the building. Poof. No one to even 'spill the beans'.

Obviously, we both know by now that I think that scenario is utter folly.

However, let's please skip that and bear with me on this part... let's say we both agree, and I *think* we do, that Brian went down one of the back exits (either stairs or elevator). He did so coming off the upper hall that was FILLED with people, including two police officers, right?

Whether he made it out of the building or not... there is, in my opinion, a darn good chance that SOMEONE (maybe even one of those police officers) saw him use the door to access the back exits, right? ...maybe even someone that used the back hall that saw him there and thought nothing of it. That falls under someone knowing something. Even having knowledge of an eyewitness that SAW him use those exits is a big deal, imo.

 

[jtfolden]

Also, I have no desire to repeat the construction theory debate over and over until the end of time HOWEVER - presented purely for the benefit of the group I noticed segments in two old news reports that are rather interesting.

The first one talks about the service exit into the construction area, and the doors onto the street from that area, not being covered by camera (go to 5:03):

The second one, more interesting, seems to provide a glimpse INTO the construction area at the time (go to 5:37):

Anyone have any links to these news reports in better quality by some slim chance?

 

[itsrak]

Obviously, we both know by now that I think that scenario is utter folly. Yeah, but it explains so much, such as that fact that Brian is the only person who per vid entered the building that evening who per vid seemed not to have exited by conventional routes, and is not as ludicrous as the notion that drunken Brian kicked off a plan to disappear at 2am that morn or that the perfect murder was inexplicably committed.

However, let's please skip that and bear with me on this part... let's say we both agree, and I *think* we do, that Brian went down one of the back exits (either stairs or elevator). Yeah, I've perused/walked the building, and I'd agree that seems plausible. He did so coming off the upper hall that was FILLED with people, including two police officers, right? Yeah, several persons and 2 rent-a-cops.

Whether he made it out of the building or not... there is, in my opinion, a darn good chance that SOMEONE (maybe even one of those police officers) saw him use the door to access the back exits, right? I'd think they'd have said so if they had, and they apparently didn't, so I doubt it. Having been there, I could see where one could easily pass through the door without being noticed - the focal point is the UTS entrance, not the recessed service door behind the cam...maybe even someone that used the back hall that saw him there and thought nothing of it. I'd think they'd have said so if they had, and they apparently didn't, so I doubt it. That falls under someone knowing something. Even having knowledge of an eyewitness that SAW him use those exits is a big deal, imo. Would be a big deal, but there is no such eyewitness to my knowledge. In any case, the lead detective seems to think -witnessed or not - that Brian may have gotten into the construction area, and no witness to Brian heading for or entering into or being seen in or exiting from the construction area has been identified. So it would seem likely there is no such witness. Yet, that seems to be Hurst's working theory, and so I go with that. Where the Brian-died-alone-in-an-accident-in-the-construction-area-and-his-body-not-found hypothesis deviates from Hurst's theory is that while Hurst suggests that Brian 'most likely' (which stated another way is 'perhaps not') 'got exited out of there', the accidental death hypothesis has Brian not making it out (and explains why not seen on vid leaving likely every one else, why never seen again period (or heard from, or any sign of life at all), why never seen on area surveillance cams, why his phone started going straight to VM (lost signal under fill from dirt collapse?), why body never found (searchers missed it under dirt?)....

 

[jtfolden]

Yeah, but it explains so much

Well I'd asked you to please skip that since debating a theory that relies on a complete lack of evidence over and over isn't productive at this point but since you have to bang that drum I'm just going to copy and paste my previous issues with this theory since there is nothing new on the table so far...

Hurst's opinion is that he most likely exited the building via the construction area. That may not tell us where his body currently is located *today* but it doesn't suggest Hurst thinks he is still in the building either.

Lots of people go missing and are never found. What are the chances that Brian is simply somewhere else that has NOT been searched OR that he is somewhere that:

- was repeatedly searched by LEO's.
- was repeatedly searched by family.
- was repeatedly searched by official search and cadaver dogs, and other search dogs, just within the first 10 days of disappearance.
- no evidence of his body was encountered by all of the above or ANY workers at any time as they finished up the unit for the tenant over the next 6 months.

also in light of:
- no evidence the construction area was in a condition that could not only kill someone but also where a body could fall and never be found.
- The camera that would have shown him going out the back exit is also the same one that *should* have shown him entering the construction area.
- A search dog tracked his scent from the building to a Wendy's parking lot.
- A homeless man insisted he saw Brian days after his disappearance.
- Brian's phone pinged off a cell tower 14 miles away from where he was last seen, 6 months after he vanished.

Chance that he did make it out of the building (one way or another, by foot or carried out) and his body is elsewhere -seems incredibly high to me.

and is not as ludicrous as the notion that drunken Brian kicked off a plan to disappear at 2am that morn

I don't believe, if he had that idea, that he did it at 2am either. However, if you want to entertain that idea; he could have planned it for a while. He could have gone home after the bar and left his apt on Saturday. Alexis didn't go to the the apt until Sunday and her comments that nothing had been touched don't really mean anything - she couldn't know if things in the apartment had changed from Fri to Sat because she had been out of town.

The idea that he had a drunken notion to leave his life behind while in a drunken haze seems like folly too, though.

or that the perfect murder was inexplicably committed.

Yeah, that's folly too... just because a body hasn't been found it doesn't make it a perfect murder.

I'd think they'd have said so if they had, and they apparently didn't, so I doubt it.

That kind of sums up the problem with the death-by-construction-area, as well. I'd think he'd have been found if he died there, and apparently wasn't, so I doubt it. ;-)

I'll bet dollars to donuts that there's more of a chance someone knows *something* beyond what is public knowledge than there is of Brian still being in the construction area.

why his phone started going straight to VM (lost signal under fill from dirt collapse?), why body never found (searchers missed it under dirt?)....

Actually, I was wrong about there being nothing new on the table in regard to this theory. The videos that I posted just a bit earlier showing parts of the construction area don't suggest anything in the way of large trenches or holes. It's hard to make out in the second video - the area indeed looks rough BUT the ground we see is pretty flat.

 

[Kaie]

Well I'd asked you to please skip that since debating a theory that relies on a complete lack of evidence over and over isn't productive at this point but since you have to bang that drum I'm just going to copy and paste my previous issues with this theory since there is nothing new on the table so far...

I have been avoiding saying anything about this, because naturally this thread has gone through various phases, and I figured that "this too shall pass", but I am starting to find some of the passive aggression a bit too much. That's the thing that isn't productive... it never is.

If there's nobody else in this thread who sees a problem here, then I will let it go. I have to admit that as a PTSD sufferer myself, I am more sensitive than the next person to passive aggression... even if it's not directed at me, so maybe no one else here minds. But people have been arguing back and forth about these theories for years now, often disagreeing with each other 100%, while this bitter undercurrent to the posts is a more recent thing.

I am not anyone other than a fellow forum member, so I can't tell anyone what to do, but my suggestion is that we keep in mind the reverence we should be showing towards a missing person who may or may not be alive, and his family and friends. I feel that when we slip below this standard, the forum reads as though we think that posting about Brian Shaffer is some kind of sport, and sarcasm wins you points.

Anyway, I too hope 2019 is the year for the answers that end all speculation and give closure to those who need it most.