CA CA - Barbara Thomas, 69, from Bullhead City AZ, disappeared in Mojave desert, 12 July 2019 #8

[Sunnymicki]

The kind of abduction you describe is driven by opportunity, so there's no element of luck or coincidence. Such people strike when they see a likely victim, they don't necessarily go looking.
Plus they don't always use force to get the victim into the car.

On the contrary, luck and coincidence can contribute greatly to a person's opportunity. I believe that the point of the post you responded to is that the window of opportunity would've been so small as to require a large element of luck and coincidence to make an abduction a feasible scenario.

I got curious about the actual odds of this happening, so I tried some google "research." Basically the odds of BT being a victim of stranger abduction are so small as to be out of the realm of realistic conclusion. Here are my big take-aways, with the explanation of how I got there to follow:

BT had a 0.5% chance of a car passing her with a man in it who would commit a sexual assault IF she had stood at the side of the road until 201 cars had driven by that each had only men (or one man) in it. (The odds are MUCH smaller if only a few cars passed her on the roadside.) This statistic DOES NOT factor in abduction, only sexual assault. However:

There is about a 0.00013% chance of an adult woman being abducted by a stranger.

Details: What I found is that there isn't much info at all on adult kidnappings by strangers. Apparently adult kidnapping isn't even separately recorded by the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting system.

So I extrapolated (in a very unscientific way lol). For persons under the age of 18, one report said that only about 100 cases per year can be classified as stranger abductions (source at end). Lets just pretend that women age 20 and above were abducted at this same rate in 1990 (explanation for why 1990 at the end). 79,816,985 adult women / 100 stranger abductions = 0.00013% chance of an adult woman being abducted by a stranger. Keep in mind, this isn't a real statistic because we are pretending adult women are subject to stranger abductions at the same rate as children are - but that's what we've got.

I'm a dork and wanted to look at it from another angle. This time I used a US DOJ report on sexual assaults from the mid-90's (just what I found quickly when googling).

I did a super rough calculation using this statistic: In 1994, there were an estimated 485,290 (reported and non-reported) assaults on females over the age of 12. (source at end of post)

Using 1990 census figures, there were very approximately 97,571,000 females over the age of 14 in the United States (the age groups broke at 14, not 12 yrs, so this number was the closest I could figure to line up with the above statistic).

97,571,000 women / 485,290 assaults = very approximately one assault for every 201 women.

Just pretending that each victim has a unique offender (this is not actually true), we could generally estimate that one in every 201 men is an offender.

So we could say that BT had a 0.5% chance of a car passing her with a man in it who would commit a sexual assault IF she had stood at the side of the road until 201 cars had driven by that each had only men (or one man) in it. That man who is willing to commit assault then also has to decide that he is willing to abduct Barbara in order to commit assault. And as we saw above, and from the stats below, that is exceedingly unlikely. Look at other statistics on sexual offenses:
- Only one third of assaults took place during daytime hours.
- 60% of assaults took place at the victim's home or a friend's or relative's home.
- In 3 out of 4 assaults, the offender was not a stranger

Given all that, we know that the odds are that it would take significantly more than 201 men-only cars before one came along with an offender who wanted to assault Barbara. But lets just go with it. And say half the cars are men-only, so 400 cars need to go by to find our offender. Per sroads post, on a "busy" day, he saw a car approximately every few minutes. Lets say one car every two minutes. That means that Barbara might have needed to be exposed to 800 minutes, or over 13 HOURS of being visible at the side of the road before an offender who wanted to sexually assault her came along.

That all said, it seems that the only realistic abduction scenario is one in which BT (or RT? but that is a kind of wild scenario) knew her abductor and the abductor knew where and when to find her.

Sources:
Data on child stranger abductions: Missing Persons Statistics and Facts

1990 Census data: https://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-12.pdf (table 1)

Data on sexual offenses: https://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/SOO.PDF (this report has stats from the mid-90's, which is why I used 1990 census data for calculations)

 

[Sunnymicki]

This is a great example of how easy is it to get lost in the desert (assuming everything about that story is true).

Her husband was a few hundred feet away at most and only gone for <5 min. minutes and she went missing. Even with searchers and helicopters she wasn't found for days and yet she was only around 2 miles from where she was last seen. Had her dog not been found, she might still be out there.

You have to rely on the husband's story to believe that. And I think there is very good reason to believe that there is more to the story than he admits. I don't think there was ever a threatening male stranger either, but that is neither here nor there for the BT case.

 

[Stripehaven]

We assume there was enough time for this event because, well, BT is missing.

A major piece of backstory is also missing: motive.

Who and why would that who(m) want to disappear BT?

Spur of the moment or... planned?

If it was an opportunity-stalker, did the T's come across the 'abductor' while doing errands that day?

Has the FBI been asked to create a profile for the 'abductor' in this case?

Did BT have an ex-boyfriend(s) (from recent years, college or high school years past)?

Did anyone who BT knows need money / was refused?

Did RT or BT have 'enemies', be they business-related or neighbors?

We assume RT was carrying ID, because we assume he was driving. We are told BT was not carrying ID when she disappeared, was BT's ID in the truck or RV or left at home / elsewhere that day?

Did BT have her own credit/debit card(s); were any of them used that day (before BT's disappearance)?

Was the Honk Kong (round)trip the only upcoming / planned event in BT's future?

What did the T's have planned in the future (something they were to do together after the hike, after the Hong Kong trip)? Was anything purchased for those plans?

What did BT have already packed for her Hong Kong trip? How extensive was that pack (for a few days stay or for longer, how much longer)?

What is the most-recent electronic trail element from BT; social media, email, financial transaction, major purchase?

How many different types of hats does BT own? One, or more? Are they all 'baseball' style caps?

Were BT's fingerprints found in and/or on the truck and/or RV?

Did the T's own other vehicles? Recently purchased or sold?

Does the T's house include a basement?

Do the T's rent a storage unit(s)?

Does their property include a septic system?

 

[LAhiker]

wait, I;m confused...

I may have made an error in my post, but I think what may be confusing is that the other posts I was quoting, though visible in my post, disappear in a reply. My first paragraph in the post, saying that it's easy to get separated/lost in the desert, was in response to a post that I understood to be implying that for Susan and William Schmierer to get separated near the Amboy Craters, a perpetrator must've been involved.

My second paragraph was saying that it would have been difficult to impossible for a perpetrator to travel from where Sheryl Powell was when she ran into the brush to the stated location of the Barbara Thomas disappearance in the even the longest time that might've elapsed between the two incidents.

So I was saying that these cases don't necessarily provide support for a theory that there's a California killer who attacks women (especially older and/or petite women) in remote locations when their husbands are nearby. JMO

 

[Stripehaven]

We are told that Barbara
1. was not carrying ID that day;
2. was dressed in a bikini for hiking;
3. did not have a personal cell phone or personal Email, and 4. her phone calls were supervised by the husband.
I see red flags all over this description and relationship.

I feel the same way about red flags here, and I wonder if a controlling spouse would allow her to get too far out of his sight. Although apparently she did walk her dog alone so I dunno.

I can’t even describe how much I hope there are answers soon. If we’re thus frustrated, I can’t imagine what torture this is for those who love her.

 

[cazador]

We assume there was enough time for this event because, well, BT is missing.

A major piece of backstory is also missing: motive.

Who and why would that who(m) want to disappear BT?

Spur of the moment or... planned?

If it was an opportunity-stalker, did the T's come across the 'abductor' while doing errands that day?

Has the FBI been asked to create a profile for the 'abductor' in this case?

Did BT have an ex-boyfriend(s) (from recent years, college or high school years past)?

Did anyone who BT knows need money / was refused?

Did RT or BT have 'enemies', be they business-related or neighbors?

We assume RT was carrying ID, because we assume he was driving. We are told BT was not carrying ID when she disappeared, was BT's ID in the truck or RV or left at home / elsewhere that day?

Did BT have her own credit/debit card(s); were any of them used that day (before BT's disappearance)?

Was the Honk Kong (round)trip the only upcoming / planned event in BT's future?

What did the T's have planned in the future (something they were to do together after the hike, after the Hong Kong trip)? Was anything purchased for those plans?

What did BT have already packed for her Hong Kong trip? How extensive was that pack (for a few days stay or for longer, how much longer)?

What is the most-recent electronic trail element from BT; social media, email, financial transaction, major purchase?

How many different types of hats does BT own? One, or more? Are they all 'baseball' style caps?

Were BT's fingerprints found in and/or on the truck and/or RV?

Did the T's own other vehicles? Recently purchased or sold?

Does the T's house include a basement?

Do the T's rent a storage unit(s)?

What did BT do for a living before RT came into her life?

Who owned real estate first ? BT or RT

Did RT help sell the BT home then Marry BT?

Did BT and RT purchase Henderson with BT equity from previous sale ?

Now Together purchase the new home they live in today with BT Equity ?

Did the equity from Henderson allow for the purchase of Home,Truck, Trailer, Boat, Plane..

Was there a Trust ? Does BT have a separate Will ?

Does RT own Everything outright now that BT has passed..?


Why is he not actively looking for her this whole time ?
He makes himself look bad for an innocent fellow..jmho

I need more coffee ...

 

[MsBetsy]

We are told that Barbara
1. was not carrying ID that day;
2. was dressed in a bikini for hiking;
3. did not have a personal cell phone or personal Email, and 4. her phone calls were supervised by the husband.
I see red flags all over this description and relationship.

Do we now if she normally took those things with her when she went camping or for walks?

We do know that walking in the desert in a bikini and a beer was normal for Barbara.

We don't know that her calls were "supervised." That she spoke to her family on speaker phone does not mean that it wasn't her choice to do so.

Barbara has been described as an independent woman, and a free spirit.
She doesn't sound like the kind of woman who would allow herself to be totally controlled by her husband.
After all, they apparently argued and bickered the same as other couples, so it sounds like she had no problem standing up for herself.
Imo

 

[Leney]

DBM

 

[MsBetsy]

I feel the same way about red flags here, and I wonder if a controlling spouse would allow her to get too far out of his sight. Although apparently she did walk her dog alone so I dunno.

I can’t even describe how much I hope there are answers soon. If we’re thus frustrated, I can’t imagine what torture this is for those who love her.

She also went to Hong Kong by herself so she was independent enough to travel alone.
We also don't know much about the dynamics of their relationship since we have not heard from anyone who saw them on a regular basis and they don't seem to have a large circle of friends. They seem like private people.
We don't know who did the shopping or ran other errands.
I think it was mentioned that Barbara's two closest friends were family members. Maybe she often did things with them without her husband around. Imo

 

[bronbaby]

Do we now if she normally took those things with her when she went camping or for walks?

We do know that walking in the desert in a bikini and a beer was normal for Barbara.

We don't know that her calls were "supervised." That she spoke to her family on speaker phone does not mean that it wasn't her choice to do so.

Barbara has been described as an independent woman, and a free spirit.
She doesn't sound like the kind of woman who would allow herself to be totally controlled by her husband.
After all, they apparently argued and bickered the same as other couples, so it sounds like she had no problem standing up for herself.
Imo

Please please know that people can and are in abusive relationships regardless of their personality type. I am speaking from personal experience. This misconception is one of the reasons why i did not want anyone to know as i feared i would not be believed. XO
BBM

 

[slowpoke]

We are told that Barbara
1. was not carrying ID that day;
2. was dressed in a bikini for hiking;
3. did not have a personal cell phone or personal Email, and 4. her phone calls were supervised by the husband.
I see red flags all over this description and relationship.

Those may all be red flags, or they may not be.
The things you list could all be perfectly normal, as well:

If wearing a bikini, dbdb11 has told us that is typical for Barbara’s style, that she was comfortable being dressed like that.

And if wearing a bikini, there’s generally no pockets to carry ID. It was a short jaunt, so she likely wouldn’t feel the need to carry it, anyway.

No cell phone or email (I wasn’t aware of no personal email, is there a link for that someone can kindly steer me to?) may just show she didn’t embrace technology or care enough to learn.

Putting a phone on speakerphone is common for many people. My husband, for example, does that for practically all his calls. It is just his preferred method.

IMO

 

[MsBetsy]

Please please know that people can and are in abusive relationships regardless of their personality type. I am speaking from personal experience. This misconception is one of the reasons why i did not want anyone to know as i feared i would not be believed. XO
BBM

Yes, of course, any person can find themselves in an abusive relationship. I think many women have had experience with men who are controlling and abusive. In fact the red flags are usually the hardest to see for the person that is being abused. I doubt anyone in Barbara's family would doubt her if she claimed she was in this type of relationship. In fact they were described as being very much in love with each other.

My point is it's impossible to know if Barbara was in an abusive relationship based on what little we know.

That she didn't have her own cell phone, spoke to her family on speaker phone, wore a bikini when hiking, and spent a lot of time with her husband is hardly evidence of abusive. Imo

 

[Leney]

To play devils advocate (which I genuinely am, because I agree), keeping an investigation open and pursuing a case as if it may be a homicide, isn’t all that unusual.

Just because law enforcement might be playing this close to the vest, and treating Rob with suspicion, doesn’t mean that this was in fact foul play.

They just need to keep that door open, because a mistake could prove very costly down the road.

You only get one shot to get this right.

For the record, I don’t believe a word of what I just wrote.

The son has made an accusation.
No matter what LE believes, it would remain an open investigation until such time as they either prove or disprove all potential avenues of the investigation.

 

[Leney]

Seeing as no one saw them walking around the desert, it is possible that RT had arranged to meet someone there, isn't it? And that this third party was involved in whatever happened to Barbara? Their car/truck could have been parked across the road or anywhere nearby?

Thoughts?

BBM

Are we certain other hikers in the area did not see them ?

 

[Leney]

Please please know that people can and are in abusive relationships regardless of their personality type. I am speaking from personal experience. This misconception is one of the reasons why i did not want anyone to know as i feared i would not be believed. XO
BBM

I believe we are all very aware of this possibility.
To not question this would be irresponsible of LE.
Having stated that, someone may believe in hindsight that there was abuse does not make it so.

 

[Leney]

I must ask this of the VI.
BT is a extremely photogenic.
Were there any concerns that she was ill by any family ?
She does not look well in the later photos.

 

[Kapua]

BBM

Are we certain other hikers in the area did not see them ?

No, we are not at all certain of that. If the truck and RV were parked at the side of the road near the Kelbaker/Hidden Hill intersection, and as poster sroad stated, a car went by every few minutes, then certainly, someone saw the truck w/fifth wheel RV, if not the hikers. That is why I was so insistent upon getting a picture of the vehicle on the poster. Now, whether or not the people who saw it remember seeing it, or even know that Barbara went missing that day is another question. MOO

 

[MsBetsy]

The son has made an accusation.
No matter what LE believes, it would remain an open investigation until such time as they either prove or disprove all potential avenues of the investigation.

I don't think missing persons cases are ever closed unless they find the body. The case may be cold, but it still remains open.
Many are still open even after the missing person has been declared dead. Imo

 

[Twistinginthewind]

Another thing that was new in RT and BT's lives this year (in addition to the recent purchase of the new truck and RV) is that they didn't plan a trip to go to Canada to visit RT's family, as they had done yearly in the past (according to posts by our VI). I wonder why. Something must have changed in the family dynamic where he grew up in Canada for him to stop going there this year, after years of doing so. MOO

 

[Leney]

Does their property include a septic system?

I believe at some point in time we must acknowledge the number of days LE spent searching.
They did not stop after one day, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.
Something had to of given them reason to believe BT was in fact at that location.

This is a LE agency I have a great deal of faith in.