AMBER ALERT NJ - Dulce Mariá Alavez, 5, abducted at Bridgeton City Park, Cumberland County, 16 Sept 2019 #6

[peppertheyorkiepoo]

I hate to even think this way but if Dulce is deceased and outdoors somewhere, will it be easier to find her by foot or air without all the summer greenery (trees, grasses,overgrowth)? Are there a lot of hunters etc in that area who’d be in the wooded areas?

Hunters need to check their cameras. If you own land check that. I fear she won't be found. The not knowing would be the hardest.

 

[ProtectChildren]

The Search and Rescue Council of New Jersey was out in September to help look for Dulce.

The family organized searches this past month have been assisted by a volunteer private investigator.

"Coordinated by a private investigator from Pennsylvania, Sunday’s search effort was at least the second attempt this month to find something that law enforcement may have missed."

"The private investigator, William Rackley, 36, of Glenolden, Pennsylvania, described himself as “just a concerned citizen” who got involved with the search for Dulce because he was concerned that attention on the girl’s disappearance would begin to fade as more time went by."

 

[ProtectChildren]

Rumors distract from finding the missing
"The family’s cooperation with authorities has done little to deter suspicion.

Bridgeton police say they won’t comment on any individual’s connection to the case. But they have interviewed Alavez Perez and the rest of the family and no official suspects have come out of those conversations.

According to Alavez Perez, authorities took her phone a handful of times, ultimately giving it back. She has denied any knowledge of what happened to Dulce.

“Until we locate Dulce or determine the circumstances surrounding her disappearance, we have not ruled out any possibility,” Bridgeton’s Chief of Police Michael A. Gaimari Sr. told WHYY in an email.

Norma Perez Alavez, Dulce’s grandmother, who shares custody of Dulce with Noema, said the family has had less and less contact with authorities. She said they touched base last week, but there was no update on the case."

 

[sleuther0192837465]

The Search and Rescue Council of New Jersey was out in September to help look for Dulce.

The family organized searches this past month have been assisted by a volunteer private investigator.

"Coordinated by a private investigator from Pennsylvania, Sunday’s search effort was at least the second attempt this month to find something that law enforcement may have missed."

"The private investigator, William Rackley, 36, of Glenolden, Pennsylvania, described himself as “just a concerned citizen” who got involved with the search for Dulce because he was concerned that attention on the girl’s disappearance would begin to fade as more time went by."

This is wonderful

 

[jjenny]

I hate to even think this way but if Dulce is deceased and outdoors somewhere, will it be easier to find her by foot or air without all the summer greenery (trees, grasses,overgrowth)? Are there a lot of hunters etc in that area who’d be in the wooded areas?

I think it will be a lot harder in winter because of snow.

 

[peppertheyorkiepoo]

I think it will be a lot harder in winter because of snow.

I think they should have asked equinox in.

 

[peppertheyorkiepoo]

How long does DNA last on a body that as been left in the elements (sorry, I don't know a kinder way to ask)

 

[MsBetsy]

How long does DNA last on a body that as been left in the elements (sorry, I don't know a kinder way to ask)

It depends on the stage of decomposition, but after a month it would probably be too late.

It's too early to even consider. LE will continue the investigation as if she is alive until they have evidence to suggest otherwise.

The family believes she is alive, and, like many families, probably will not give up hope until she is found.

Imo

 

[peppertheyorkiepoo]

The Search and Rescue Council of New Jersey was out in September to help look for Dulce.
Bless this man. I admire that he wants to help. As time passes the case is fading. Not being from the area I am at a loss of ideas.
The family organized searches this past month have been assisted by a volunteer private investigator.

"Coordinated by a private investigator from Pennsylvania, Sunday’s search effort was at least the second attempt this month to find something that law enforcement may have missed."

"The private investigator, William Rackley, 36, of Glenolden, Pennsylvania, described himself as “just a concerned citizen” who got involved with the search for Dulce because he was concerned that attention on the girl’s disappearance would begin to fade as more time went by."

 

[FindingDMA]

Is it too late to get people to help search? 6 weeks is a long time with no updates from police.

 

[Alleykins]

Stats from a Reuter's article about Jayme Closs on missing child cases:

Kidnapped children make headlines, but abduction is rare in U.S.

On average, fewer than 350 people under the age of 21 have been abducted by strangers in the United States per year since 2010, the FBI says. From 2010 through 2017, the most recent data available, the number has ranged from a low of 303 in 2016 to a high of 384 in 2011 with no clear directional trend.

Hundreds of thousands of juveniles are reported missing to the Federal Bureau of Investigation each year. The circumstances of the disappearance is only recorded about half the time, but in cases where they are, only 0.1 percent are reported as having been abducted by a stranger. The vast majority, typically more than 95 percent, ran away.

In cases where children are abducted, it is far more common for a non-custodial parent to be the kidnapper: This was reported 2,359 times in 2017, the FBI data showed.

 

[SkipperKey3]

Stats from a Reuter's article about Jayme Closs on missing child cases:

Kidnapped children make headlines, but abduction is rare in U.S.

All good quotes, but that doesn' t mean you can dismiss stranger abduction, of course. And generally speaking, because of stats like these, the possibility of non-custodial abduction is the first thing LE tends to check.

 

[Alleykins]

All good quotes, but that doesn' t mean you can dismiss stranger abduction, of course. And generally speaking, because of stats like these, the possibility of non-custodial abduction is the first thing LE tends to check.

Personally, I'm not dismissing stranger abduction, esp. in light of recent tragedies. I'm merely pointing out it's uncommon, statistically speaking. Not unheard of, but rare. I found the statistics interesting.

 

[margarita25]

How long does DNA last on a body that as been left in the elements (sorry, I don't know a kinder way to ask)

As @MsBetsy mentioned it would depend on a variety of factors.

Some interesting notes:

“DNA degrades over time, and just how long it lasts depends on how well it's preserved. Factors such as exposure to heat, water and sunlight can cause the molecule to degrade faster, according to Slate. The best way to preserve DNA is by freezing it, and sealing it in vacuum-packed container, Slate says.”

Snip

“Last year, researchers estimated that the half-life of DNA — the point at which half the bonds in a DNA molecule backbone would be broken — is 521 years. That means that, under ideal conditions, DNA would last about 6.8 million years, after which all the bonds would be broken. But DNA would not be readable after about 1.5 million years, the researchers said.

The oldest DNA recorded was found in Greenland ice, and estimated to be between 450,000 and 800,000 years old.”

Boston Strangler Case: How Long Does DNA Last? | Live Science

 

[Alleykins]

@margarita25
Very interesting information on DNA.
Thank you.

 

[Kuyluc2764]

Initially I strongly believed in this scenario but given the time that has elapsed since Dulce's disappearance and the efforts of not only local LE but the FBI IMO I now believe either something is being withheld from the public or it was a stranger abduction.

The lack of any connection to family troubles by LE leads me to believe a stranger took Dulce. For one thing, IMO her mother is somewhat naive and it wouldn't take LE long to "break" her if she knew anything. I also doubt Dulce's grandparents would withhold information as they want her home and would share any and all of what they know or think with LE.

Also, it's not a stretch by any means to imagine a stranger stalking children in a large local park. A few threads back I mentioned that I read the journal of a convicted child murderer. It was a real eye opener. He detailed his "favorite hunting grounds" - parks - and his observation of children who were apart from parents or siblings. In some cases his "prey" got away when a parent showed up.

This felon moved from place to place and familiarized himself of places where children commonly gathered. And while he was cautious his need to find a victim was strong enough that he was willing to take chances in order to fulfill this need. In fact it was his downfall as he was finally caught when he became too brazen.

So, based on the statements of a captured child killer, LE's lack of a solid profile and no indication from Dulce's family of a known suspect I find it highly probable that we're looking at a stranger who may or may not be local and who may or may not be a transient.

Dulce's mother has no motive, Dulce's family have no motive. LE and the FBI have investigated the boyfriend and Dulce's father. What's left? IMO someone unknown to the family and maybe even the community.

Give me a reason why Dulce's mom and family would withhold information on someone with a grudge against them strong enough, so awful enough to harm a 5 year old then I'll reconsider a known abductor. MOO.

I seemed to have missed your post and would very much like to read the article. Could you direct me to it please?

 

[Steelslady]

Initially I strongly believed in this scenario but given the time that has elapsed since Dulce's disappearance and the efforts of not only local LE but the FBI IMO I now believe either something is being withheld from the public or it was a stranger abduction.

The lack of any connection to family troubles by LE leads me to believe a stranger took Dulce. For one thing, IMO her mother is somewhat naive and it wouldn't take LE long to "break" her if she knew anything. I also doubt Dulce's grandparents would withhold information as they want her home and would share any and all of what they know or think with LE.

Also, it's not a stretch by any means to imagine a stranger stalking children in a large local park. A few threads back I mentioned that I read the journal of a convicted child murderer. It was a real eye opener. He detailed his "favorite hunting grounds" - parks - and his observation of children who were apart from parents or siblings. In some cases his "prey" got away when a parent showed up.

This felon moved from place to place and familiarized himself of places where children commonly gathered. And while he was cautious his need to find a victim was strong enough that he was willing to take chances in order to fulfill this need. In fact it was his downfall as he was finally caught when he became too brazen.

So, based on the statements of a captured child killer, LE's lack of a solid profile and no indication from Dulce's family of a known suspect I find it highly probable that we're looking at a stranger who may or may not be local and who may or may not be a transient.

Dulce's mother has no motive, Dulce's family have no motive. LE and the FBI have investigated the boyfriend and Dulce's father. What's left? IMO someone unknown to the family and maybe even the community.

Give me a reason why Dulce's mom and family would withhold information on someone with a grudge against them strong enough, so awful enough to harm a 5 year old then I'll reconsider a known abductor. MOO.

Great post, as always, Ms. Marple.

We just had two stranger abductions from parks recently- one thankfully resulted in the child found safe- Ahlora, and other one, sadly deceased and placed in a dumpster- Kamille "Cupcake".

Jayme is another example from last year- poor girl.

Just because they're rare statistically, doesn't mean that they don't happen.

I know, most of the cases are sadly family related, or exes of the family or step parents.

Dulce's disappearance- I do lean towards stranger abduction. They mentioned that a search dog followed her scent for an hour. I wish more information had been given on that.

 

[MsMarple]

I seemed to have missed your post and would very much like to read the article. Could you direct me to it please?

I don't think any of the links are allowed here but if you Google westley allan dodd journal you'll be able to find them. It's worth reading.

And to be clear I'm *not* insinuating that the man who took Dulce is a serial killer but rather I found Dodd's inner thoughts about abducting children lent insight into the mind of a child predator. It's amazing how much time some of these pedophiles invest in stalking and fantasizing.

If Dulce was abducted by a stranger (or someone who had brief contact with the family or community) then my fear is he will do it again. And unless he's very young I'd bet dollars to donuts he's molested before. All MOO.

 

[Kuyluc2764]

I don't think any of the links are allowed here but if you Google westley allan dodd journal you'll be able to find them. It's worth reading.

And to be clear I'm *not* insinuating that the man who took Dulce is a serial killer but rather I found Dodd's inner thoughts about abducting children lent insight into the mind of a child predator. It's amazing how much time some of these pedophiles invest in stalking and fantasizing.

If Dulce was abducted by a stranger (or someone who had brief contact with the family or community) then my fear is he will do it again. And unless he's very young I'd bet dollars to donuts he's molested before. All MOO.

Thank you so much for the info. Going to read up on it now.

 

[JerzeyGirl]

Sadly I don’t think Dulce will ever be found. It was my first instinct the day after it happened. Reminds of the Mark Himebaugh case in NJ from 1991.