I assembled a detailed profile utilizing published LE facts about the case in MSM, the available evidence, and public information. While this is simply conjecture my methodology is based on: personal experience, psychology/sociology, physiology, and Occam's Razor.
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Libby and Abby
Profile Based On Facebook:
AW: Normal teenage girl, appropriate number of friends.
LG: Approx 500 friends, mix from expected age to older adults. Older adults could be a mix of family, church members, and other adult friends. Possibly sibling or online friends. Multiple men in there in their 20's, several who are smoking or engaging with drug praphinilla. Of not a 20 something year old male embracing a teenage female who has noticable eyrthemia below one eye. Another is a profile that is totally written in Turkish.
LG, AW Synopsis:
The Facebook profile of LG along with the knowledge that she had a difficult family life adds a wrinkle that should be explored further. I believe if it safe to assume that LG had the stronger, more outgoing personality of the pair.
Was there previous deviance? Drug behavior? Previous attempts to run away? This is reinforced by the initial police response, the police responded advised foul play not suspected, suspended search due to weather at night believing girls were not a risk. Why would they do this? Overall the nature preserve is not overly big for a general grid search and first responders would never have suspended the search given the cold weather if they believed the girls were simply lost in the woods or in danger. There would have been helicopter support, dog searches, community calls to action. The only reason LE would have suspended the search would have been a reasonable belief that girls have previously or had the potential to runaway or be involved with something else.
Analysis of BG
The Walk: Watching BG walk, I do not believe this was a drifter or homeless individual. I believe he was a local, possibly someone who grew up in the area. He knew the trail system enough to find the bridge and know that he would be able to walk on the bridge despite technically not being open to pedestrian traffic. Also, he seemed to know the terrain enough to get the girls away from the main path and in a more isolated part of the creek.
His shuffle is most likely deliberate steps. Remember, the girls are young, agile, athletic, and experienced walking on this bridge. He is older, less balanced, and possibly nervous of the condition of the timber beams. MSM notes that the bridge is in poor condition and not updated for pedestrians. Note that there are gabs between the cross ties of this bridge. I do not suspect concealed items in the leg or a walking condition. He knows of the bridge, but he's not a frequent visitor.
He is walking forward leaning but authoritatively. He keeps his hands mostly visible but in hoodie pockets. Possibility indicating that he is putting up a stern front, but keeping focus in his mind without coming across as overly observant or closed. His walk is reminiscent of a LE officer, paramedic, security guard, Air Force, or teacher.
The Clothing: This is someone not employed in the trades. The clothing is dated but in not extreme wear condition. Also, he was wearing a hoodie layered under a windbreaker. Someone in trade or used to being (living or sportsman) outside would have more likely worn some of the newer clothing for working in cold weather (i.e. Carhart, hide coat, insulated work coat). This is someone with casual exposure to being outside during the cold, possibly originally from a warm climate. Also, the jean and layer fashion indicates someone who possibly was a teenager in the early to mid 2000's. It is someone who is not engaged with fashion or updates styles frequently. I believe the cleaner shave with scruffy hair reinforces previous fashions for that age cohort.
The Voice: This is someone who has worked with kids before. Also, the direct firmness in voice makes me think youth groups and/or security crowd control. The tone is similar to how those who work with kids communicate directness without yelling. "Guys, Down The Hill", there is not enough to context to say with any certain, but to me it sounds like he is trying to get their attention. Like they were searching for something and he said something like "Guys, Over Here, Down The Hill"
BG Synopsis: This is someone who is local and reserved. He is not a direct leader, but leadership adjacent. He is someone who works a lot behind the scenes and does the grunt work of something more public. I believe he has been around a strong leader his whole life (i.e. LE officer, teacher, religious leader). He is someone who is emulating what he grew up around, but is not quite measuring up or found his own identity. Possibly JROTC in high school. In other words, he's following huge footsteps and high expectations. This is why he wants control, it's a form of over-correcting to gain approval of himself or family. The direct LE snubs as his cowardice is to get him rattled and pissed off, this is someone who may have had an honor code at sometime. He has experience working with children either directly or indirectly. The fact that LE is making religious appeals makes me think he is the son of a popular religious minister, has an overtly religious family member, and/or has worked with church youth.
Case Synopsis
BG is likely connected in the community, multiple people and subservient family members are covering for him to protect a more prominent family member. This is possibly a small, very close knit family. Perhaps they are providing a false alibi. The religious appeals are to get one of these family members to break rank.
Since it does not appear that the girls tried to run at first contact or call 911, there is reason to believe that this person was known or was expected to be at the park by one of the girls.
LE possibly believed that the girls were capable of something such as running away or deviance, which led them to sit on the initial investigation. Their conduct of the search and belief that the girls were not at risk despite them being last seen in the park and missed a well established pick up time adds to my belief.
LE likely has a primary suspect, but do not have enough evidence beyond reasonable doubt to bring charges. Possibly they do not have PC for a search warrant. Their reluctance to release evidence means they are holding as much back in the hope that BG will tell the real details to someone else who will connect him to the case. It also adds leverage for making deals with any snitches. This would be their only direct evidence in the case. It's also possible that the individual is the son of a preacher or LE and they want to be absolutely certain who he is before tearing the small town apart with a false accusation of a well connected person. Unfortunately, he will have to harm again and be caught before his family breaks rank.
Theories
A) The girls were walking, encountered BG on the trail or bridge who followed and attacked them randomly.
B) The girls encountered BG, who is known to them, interacted with him. Later possibly insulted him or someone started some other confrontation that escalated.
C) One of the girls engaged with him online and set up a meeting, possibly catfished him or did something similar like "To Catch A Predator". This would explain the forethought to record secretly, but also why the girls didn't run or call for help despite having a cell phone.
E) He catfished one of the girls and set up a meeting and maybe didn't expect the friend to come along. Situation escalated
E) Drug connection to the girls or family member
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About Me: I was a counter-intelligence profiler at one time. I then went into a career where I conducted multiple suicide and homicide interventions. Often I would have nothing more than a fake SM account to track individuals. I am now a health care professional.
