Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #118

[cryssyx3]

@HEY YOU! standing in the aisles
with itchy feet and fading smiles
can you feel me?

 

[PaulaDC]

After reading this, I feel more confident that if nothing else they do know what BG looks like.
Scientists Reconstruct ‘Lola’ After Finding Her DNA in 5,700-Year-Old ‘Chewing Gum’

 

[Torch Carrier]

Much here to ponder. I would be thrilled to know DNA related techniques are in progress. DC DID ask for "patience", reminded "just beginning..." so it is a possibility... hmmm

I've been trying to rationalize the current 8 month radio silence as a positive. It certainly is preferable to Doug Carter issuing confusing and contradictory statements every few months. There is frequent DNA discussion on Reddit, apparently moreso than here. Yesterday in a thread there a poster very well versed in genealogical DNA was talking about 5th cousins and how long it would take to piece together toward the suspect, if that's all you had. The high profile cases that have been solved by this method have been very fortunate, with close enough proximity like 3rd cousins or nearer.

I thought I remembered reading something that broke down each category by how much backfitting it required. I found that link today:

Most People of European Ancestry Can Be Identified From a Relative’s DNA

This is the key paragraph:

“A second-cousin match is the sweet spot where it’s easy,” says Kennett, whereas a fourth-cousin match might take “thousands and thousands of hours’ work.” Identifying someone through a single third-cousin match is somewhere in the middle: It’s not trivial, but it’s very much possible."

***

I hope that's what is going on in this case behind the scenes...a painstaking 4th cousin family tree build. It's not likely, but IMO that is by far the best hope. In reading about every solved case via genealogical DNA the aspect that stands out is how frequently the term 3rd cousin is used. For more than a year I've been thinking that the related software and methods have got to be improving at rapid rate, to the point the more difficult cases can be attempted. They aren't going to try that type of thing without either high profile urgency, or plenty of money, or most likely a combination of the two. Delphi would seemingly be a great candidate...IF they have sufficient DNA that likely sources from the killer.

I hope that's the case because I'm sick of arguing about the particulars. For example, on another site I received a PM indicating that the hair being drawn on Bridge Guy is intended to mirror a specific suspect. That's why they are so adamant about it...they are trying to draw their guy onto the still frame and convince law enforcement to run around in circles and react. The PMer said not all of the posters are involved in that type of specificity -- that many simply believe it is hair alone -- but the ones taking it furthest own that bias. It makes perfect sense to me because straying from probability to greatest extreme almost always involves agenda fanaticism.

I knew it had to be something like that because one of the related posts matter of factly emphasized local guy. I was thinking...what does hair alone have to do with whether or not he was local?

It does if you're not trying to make a point so much as peg a name

 

[Falling Down]

re: third cousins and genaology tools:

I'm not sure how much help software would be with matches beyond third cousins. At that distance, lack of information becomes the big issue. Third cousins share a great-great-grandparent. That will take most families back at least a hundred years and into an era when people didn't pay as much attention to recordkeeping. What sources there are may have been lost or damaged, and they aren't on line. It was much more common in the US to repeat names within a family, so determining if the "Peter Smith" who married "Mary Lamb" is the same "Peter Smith" who married "Mary Pumpkin" can be tricky. Same guy, two marriages? Two guys, two marriages? One guy, one woman who was previously married? And in many cases Mary Lamb's birth name might not be recorded anywhere.

I have endless admiration for the people who have the knowledge and patience to unscramble the trail piece by piece.

^^^^THIS

If LE have DNA, it could still be very difficult to find this perp. I tend to shy away from speculation about DNA in this case, but the point has to be made here that if, indeed, they have a DNA profile of some sort, the chances of it leading to BG could be slim for any number of reasons.

Like others here have noted upthread, finding genealogical links going back "to the old country" could be difficult. It often times depends upon the country and their records, say going back to the mid-1800's and earlier, and in my own research it can be difficult coming up with names, especially in certain cultures. In my own background, a wife's maiden name might be only in church records, and won't even be in a family Bible or something similar.

Quite frankly a lot of people didn't much care about that stuff "back in the day", and ended up in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, Australia, and any number of other countries without caring much about the past.

GSK was linked through ancestors who were living roughly in the mid-1800's, a third cousin if memory serves. Imagine if the clock were moved back to 1800 or earlier through a much more distant cousin, and how difficult that would be and how much more time it would take. Like others have noted, adoption and other factors could complicate such a task. Census and other records may not be a 100% trustworthy means of tracing some ancestry information.

My paternal grandfather and his three siblings were split up after the flu pandemic around 100 years ago. Two were adopted and no doubt the records were sealed in NY, although he kept in touch with those two siblings. Now imagine I submit my DNA to 23andme or another site, and LE link it to a murder investigation through some distant cousin of mine.

Their grandmother or gr. grandmother or great aunt or whatever is a great aunt of mine but was adopted in 1920, and the records are sealed. Throw in a last name change, a marriage, and other factors, and one can see where this could get complicated.

Software can only do so much, the records I've used are not technically searchable online, say through databases. Some of what I found is online, but the scrolling took many hours and the records were from old newspaper clippings about births, marriages, and obits. This is where the forensic genealogy experts come in to play in these cases, technology alone can not solve these cases. Imagine a group of researchers and detectives requesting information from, say, county courthouses across the U.S., walking through cemeteries, etc.

JMO

 

[Charlot123]

I have often thought this too... and I clearly recall LE saying waaaay back they at first they did not realize it was a crime scene (sadly no link) so I have oft wondered if girls were hung or up in trees somehow.
AFAIK (not a hunter myself) some hunters do like to hang stuff from trees (animal hides, antlers, deer heads or whatever) but I can't imagine BG had much time. Yeah, "looked up" and saw them. Makes me wonder.

I was thinking of it too. How organized should one be to prepare it all - hang antlers in advance, only to replace them with something special later?

 

[HEY YOU!]

@HEY YOU! standing in the aisles
with itchy feet and fading smiles
can you feel me?

Had a chance to see 'The Wall' concert in NYC as a kid...I passed!! Lol, got the t-shirt though

 

[Charlot123]

I've been trying to rationalize the current 8 month radio silence as a positive. It certainly is preferable to Doug Carter issuing confusing and contradictory statements every few months. There is frequent DNA discussion on Reddit, apparently moreso than here. Yesterday in a thread there a poster very well versed in genealogical DNA was talking about 5th cousins and how long it would take to piece together toward the suspect, if that's all you had. The high profile cases that have been solved by this method have been very fortunate, with close enough proximity like 3rd cousins or nearer.

I thought I remembered reading something that broke down each category by how much backfitting it required. I found that link today:

Most People of European Ancestry Can Be Identified From a Relative’s DNA

This is the key paragraph:

“A second-cousin match is the sweet spot where it’s easy,” says Kennett, whereas a fourth-cousin match might take “thousands and thousands of hours’ work.” Identifying someone through a single third-cousin match is somewhere in the middle: It’s not trivial, but it’s very much possible."

***

I hope that's what is going on in this case behind the scenes...a painstaking 4th cousin family tree build. It's not likely, but IMO that is by far the best hope. In reading about every solved case via genealogical DNA the aspect that stands out is how frequently the term 3rd cousin is used. For more than a year I've been thinking that the related software and methods have got to be improving at rapid rate, to the point the more difficult cases can be attempted. They aren't going to try that type of thing without either high profile urgency, or plenty of money, or most likely a combination of the two. Delphi would seemingly be a great candidate...IF they have sufficient DNA that likely sources from the killer.

I hope that's the case because I'm sick of arguing about the particulars. For example, on another site I received a PM indicating that the hair being drawn on Bridge Guy is intended to mirror a specific suspect. That's why they are so adamant about it...they are trying to draw their guy onto the still frame and convince law enforcement to run around in circles and react. The PMer said not all of the posters are involved in that type of specificity -- that many simply believe it is hair alone -- but the ones taking it furthest own that bias. It makes perfect sense to me because straying from probability to greatest extreme almost always involves agenda fanaticism.

I knew it had to be something like that because one of the related posts matter of factly emphasized local guy. I was thinking...what does hair alone have to do with whether or not he was local?

It does if you're not trying to make a point so much as peg a name

OK I personally see a hat. Moreover, a lamb skin hat. Traveling in Portugal, I saw a store selling similar hats - I nearly fell off the tourist bus trying to take a picture.

So, maybe a triangle of hair under the hat, though,

However, if we assume that his face was covered with a scarf/kerchief, anyone can assume whatever and whoever hiding under it.

And then the NBG who 1) looks like a spitting image of one young Delphian (who I rule out as he has huge legs, but still), or 2) like a perfect mix of a local father’s/son’s face. It is not just Carrol county, us all - we are shown this sketch to make our informed judgment. And we are told that he is hiding in plain sight.

So it is unsurprising that people suspect local golden youngsters. Their right. Tell me why they should not, after such a sketch?

 

[JerseyGirl]

This thread has reached it's limit. I will move over today's posts and close this shortly.

Please continue here: Found Deceased - IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #119