Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Pandemic* #20

[otto]

We've heard that paper masks are okay for people who are sick and ineffective for people who are not sick, but what about masks that are not made of paper? Isn't there some sort of mask that people can wear in public and wash when they get home? That sounds like an industry waiting to be exploited.

 

[escape2sc]

I imagine there are individuals that have mild symptoms but do not want to be tested because they would be forced to be in quarantine and that would disrupt their lives too much.

 

[firebird]

Not really sure what is being said here, but COVID-19 is already known to have a death rate 10+ times higher than the flu.

How does one know that US citizens aren't dying of COVID-19 if the testing rate is lagging?

Yeah, no. That's not even close to the truth.

 

[otto]

All the ridicule about planning ahead and storing food and medicines....

I have 3 weeks of food in the house, and I stocked up in 3 different trips, trying to appear inconspicuous, no toilet paper hoarding.

 

[otto]

Vodka does not have enough % of alcohol content to sanitize.

Home made sanitizers are discouraged because they omit agents that protect skin.

 

[firebird]

Do we know for certain we have people in the US that need to be tested but can’t? Or do we have people that want to be tested but really don’t need a test. I’m not clear on this, are you? I’ve never had to see a doctor for cold/flu but have had to see an allergist. I’d have to be near death to go to a doctor for a cold.
I do think a lot of people feel like a test would clear them, but they don’t understand if they are asymptomatic or in incubation they will get a false negative, as I understand it. We need people to isolate, not think they are in the clear, spreading it all over their community, which might happen if they get a false negative. Also, there seems to be no purpose in getting a negative test today and being out on the town tomorrow.

No one "needs" to be tested except for statistical purposes. There's no vaccine and the treatment is exactly the same as for any other viral upper respiratory infection.

 

[Trudie]

Here's a wild thought. It looks like children under 10 are relatively protected from this virus. Mother's provide immunity to their children through healthy pregnancy - the mother's stores are depleted with each birth. In any case, perhaps the cure to the virus is in that immunity that is provided during pregnancy. There must be a secret ingredient that protects children and where better to look than what they were provided at birth.

We don't fully understand the phenomenon — it may be because of differences in the immune responses of children compared to adults," Dr. Andrew Pavia, the chief of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at the University of Utah, told Live Science in an email. "One hypothesis is that the innate immune response, that is the early response that is aimed broadly at groups of pathogens, tends to be more active," in children, he said.

Infectious disease in kids Why are children 'missing' from coronavirus outbreak cases? | Live Science

 

[otto]

Hi @otto Are you guys having luck with the availability of testing? How are you all set for ICU rooms, staff and ventalators?

Ontario set up test areas outside of emergency areas. In Alberta, that test site is not public. People are screened before being sent for testing.

In my opinion, ICU and ventilators are in short supply. If any region in Canada is overwhelmed as we see in Italy, the same thing will happen: triage those who have a better chance of survival. Anyone with a secondary condition will be deemed second tier.

 

[Trudie]

When a new virus makes its way into your body, your immune system realises that it’s not part of your normal bodily system, attacks it and tries to kill it. After that, it remembers the virus, so it can get rid of it straight away if it ever comes knocking again.

Just like any living creature, viruses change themselves to survive in their environment. Over time, they change in ways that makes it hard for our immune systems to recognise them. That’s how we end up with new versions of viruses, like this new version of coronavirus. Imagine your unwanted houseguest has come back, but with a wig and new glasses. Your immune system doesn’t recognise it, so it gets in the front door before your immune system realises it should fight it off.

What are the symptoms of novel coronavirus?
When you have a virus, it’s not actually the virus that makes you sick, but your immune system’s efforts to get rid of it. For example, your immune system can raise your body temperature and give you a fever, to make it hot enough to kill a virus. All the hard work your immune system is doing can also use up energy and make you feel tired.

Everyone’s body is different, and because symptoms are caused by your immune system and not the virus itself, different people can have slightly different symptoms when they have the same virus, and some people’s symptoms will be worse than others. Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) – everything you need to know, in language you can understand

 

[Lilibet]

Do we know for certain we have people in the US that need to be tested but can’t? Or do we have people that want to be tested but really don’t need a test. I’m not clear on this, are you? I’ve never had to see a doctor for cold/flu but have had to see an allergist. I’d have to be near death to go to a doctor for a cold.
I do think a lot of people feel like a test would clear them, but they don’t understand if they are asymptomatic or in incubation they will get a false negative, as I understand it. We need people to isolate, not think they are in the clear, spreading it all over their community, which might happen if they get a false negative. Also, there seems to be no purpose in getting a negative test today and being out on the town tomorrow.

Perhaps you haven’t read the articles about people who have needed to be tested and weren’t. Washington State is a prime example as is NYC. No one is suggesting testing every Tom, Dick and Harry. But no one in a position to know is saying that the U.S. has enough tests. This link is a pretty comprehensive overview, including your concern about testing asymptomatic people. Isolating (social distancing) is definitely an important tool.

Confusion and chaos surround coronavirus testing in the US | Live Science

 

[escape2sc]

Isn't it amazing that the NBA, the Houston Livestock and Rodeo, and major money making events are being cancelled throughout the country over something that isn't as bad as the flu ?

 

[Amonet]

is it expected 3mil will need vents’? Ty

So far it seems to be about 5% of diagnosed cases that need that kind of care. Maybe a bit higher, I'm not sure.

Another number to watch is that about 15% on top of that 5% need some amount of oxygen support. I believe some UK doctors are a little concerned about whether or not they have the oxygen supplies to cover those cases (source: Dr John Campbell's videos).

I don't think any country knows exactly what its number of cases will be at its peak. The epidemiological models I've been seeing have just put in the shape of the curve but have left the actual numbers out.

 

[zecats]

We've heard that paper masks are okay for people who are sick and ineffective for people who are not sick, but what about masks that are not made of paper? Isn't there some sort of mask that people can wear in public and wash when they get home? That sounds like an industry waiting to be exploited.

What about just a plain old scarf wrapped around the mouth and nose? Or handkerchief? You know, like the bank robbers wear in old westerns.
I’m completely serious btw.

 

[wendybtn]

The mortality rate from the generic flu is 1 in 1000. The mortality rate from the corona virus - at the lowest estimate is 1 in 100.

How can we even guess at the mortality rate when we are clueless about the denominator in the equation? Educated guesses at best, but we know it isn't accurate.

 

[LaborDayRN]

Ontario set up test areas outside of emergency areas. In Alberta, that test site is not public. People are screened before being sent for testing.

In my opinion, ICU and ventilators are in short supply. If any region in Canada is overwhelmed as we see in Italy, the same thing will happen: triage those who have a better chance of survival. Anyone with a secondary condition will be deemed second tier.

Sadly, it appears most of the world seems to be short on ventilators. At least for this situation anyway. It's pretty scary stuff.....

 

[Tippy Lynn]

Isn't it amazing that the NBA, the Houston Livestock and Rodeo, schools are suspending classes and major money making events are being cancelled throughout the country over something that isn't as bad as the flu ?

Fear of the unknown will do it. At this point, there are so many unknowns and it’s causing decisions like this to be made. I don’t know if there’s a right or wrong answer, but IMO it’s better to be safe than sorry.

 

[firebird]

Isn't it amazing that the NBA, the Houston Livestock and Rodeo, and major money making events are being cancelled throughout the country over something that isn't as bad as the flu ?

Awful, not amazing, is the word I'd use. I hope people can recover economically.

 

[Tippy Lynn]

Awful, not amazing, is the word I'd use. I hope people can recover economically.

I hear you. It’s scary to think about all the different layers a virus can impact.

 

[otto]

Italy appears to be an anomoly. Most of the information I'm seeing, however, is showing that that vast majority of deaths and severe cases are, as expected, in people 80 years of age and older, with co-morbidities. Apparently, Italy has the oldest population in all of Europe. A lot of smokers. Not fantastic healthcare in some areas, etc., etc. I'm not at all concerned that the US will be anomolous in that way, and I'm sure we'll find out the unique explanation for what's going on there in time. jmo

Wasn't it you who said we can't take what happened in China seriously until we see what happens in Italy? And what now, we can trust what happened in Italy until it's in our back yard?

Think about that triage thing. Do you know anyone who has a current medical condition, such as diabetes, high blood pressure? If so, they are second tier when push comes to shove in triage. Some people might think that an inheritance is in the works if all the old sick people are knocked off, but there won't be much of an inheritance without the old people who know how the markets work.

 

[Alethea]

Isn't it amazing that the NBA, the Houston Livestock and Rodeo, and major money making events are being cancelled throughout the country over something that isn't as bad as the flu ?

If there’s one thing I learned working on Wall Street, it’s follow the money. If major companies are pulling conferences they obviously have independent information to support their concerns. Google already canceled its developer conference for May. Tech companies are allowing remote work. SXSW and Coachella were cancelled or rescheduled. Retail trade shows are cancelling across the country. Ivy League schools are emptying.

Companies thrive on one thing: order. They do not make chaotic decisions without hard evidence and expert guidance.