Coronavirus - COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #24

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I think you are correct and the death rate will also go down because there are treatments being trialed.
NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins

I was encouraged today when our county health dept. director said she thinks it takes 10 minutes of breathing near each other for "community spread" to take place. Our state now has 18 confirmed but only one community spread. The woman traveled to NY AFTER she was experiencing symptoms. No deaths so far and the remdesivir trial is underway.

Sorry for the rant here but what I truly do not understand is why the Washington nursing home patients have not been treated with the same meticulous quarantine and biocontainment protocol which the early cruise ship patients received. There is also no quarantine put in place for employees and now many are infected. Does the nursing home even have ventilators and respiratory techs available? Why the place hasn't been shuttered by the State is beyond me. For families to have to climb through shrubbery to go reach outside windows to communicate is beyond cruel and inhumane. It sounds like these folks have been ignored by the State health dept. I don't blame the families for their outrage. As a nation, we can do better.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...te-anguish-mounts-over-virus-hit-nursing-home

MyBelle, are you from Nebraska? I’m wondering if I saw the same local press conference you did or if the local lady I saw here in Nebraska was saying 10 minutes of being near someone too. It’s encouraging to me if it really does take 10 minutes!
 
So my question is this....I see the numbers for CV compared to the flu, up thread. The seasonal flu seems to have lots of cases. How come it does not overwhelm the health system like CV is feared to do? ( I have had trouble posting, double posts and missing links so this post has no link in terms of actual numbers) I am asking a general question.
rbbm
Covid-19 is not the flu. It’s worse.
Put simply, while the exact death rate is not yet clear, this disease kills a larger proportion of people than the flu (and it’s particularly lethal for people older than 80).

Covid_19_CFR_by_age_vs._US_Seasonal_Flu_3.png

A comparison of flu death rates to Covid-19 deaths in China in the period leading up to the peak of the country’s outbreak. The exact fatality rate of Covid-19 is not yet known, but it appears much deadlier than the flu.
Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie/Our World in Data
''It also has a higher potential to overwhelm our health care system and hurt people with other illnesses.

At present, there is also no vaccine to combat it, nor any approved therapeutics to slow the course of its toll on the human body. (Doctors can treat cytokine storm syndrome, an immune response that may in some cases be dealing the fatal blow to those dying of Covid-19.)

Sober-minded epidemiologists say, without exaggeration, that 20 to 60 percent of the world’s adult population could end up catching this virus.''

''Biologically, it behaves differently than the flu. It takes around five days for Covid-19 infection to develop symptoms. For the flu, it’s two days. That potentially gives people more time to spread the illness asymptomatically before they know they are sick.''

''Three months ago, this virus was not known to science. No human immune system had seen it before January, so no unexposed human has any natural immunity to it. That means it’s more contagious than the flu — about twice as contagious, perhaps more; the numbers are still being worked out.''

'People have been trying to underplay this': Why the coronavirus is different from the flu

''Experts are still trying to calculate precisely what the mortality rate of the coronavirus is, but it appears to be many times higher than that of the flu.

"If you get the flu, 99.9 percent of people are going to be just fine."

''While the flu follows a distinct seasonal pattern every year, no one knows yet what the coronavirus pattern will look like.''

''Efforts to develop a vaccine for it are underway, but nothing exists to prevent it at the moment. With the flu, a vaccine is manufactured each year to keep up with the constantly mutating genes of the flu strains. Those who catch the flu have some immunity against catching the same strain again — something that is not yet possible with the coronavirus.''
 
You realize the numbers are not reaching astronomical levels ~*BECAUSE*~ we are "shutting down the world," right? And that waiting until many people get infected/die is too late and completely idiotic and downright evil, right?
No one should "panic," but we need to be cautious and prepared. If schools need to close down, if people need to stay home from work, so be it.
IMO this is exactly right. We are slowing the spread by making difficult decisions to shut certain things down that would increase community spread.
 
Local officials alarmed by dearth of ventilators, hospital beds
rbbm.
"It's about our supply of ventilators, our supply of beds, and of course we have to worry about our health care workers and the general stress on our health care system," said Dr. Amy Acton, the head of the Ohio Department of Health. "If we stay below a certain threshold, we can try not to overwhelm our health care system. So we need to take aggressive measures now."


Ventilators, which provide mechanical breathing assistance and can make the difference between life and death for those patients who need them, represent the clearest limitation on the health system’s capacity to handle the outbreak. U.S. hospitals have a total of 160,000 ventilators — 62,000 full-featured ventilators, and 98,000 more basic ones that can be used in an emergency, according to a 2020 study by Johns Hopkins University.

And it’s not just the machines. The respiratory therapists who treat these critically ill patients are also in short supply, several doctors and hospital leaders point out''.

'' Based on early data from China, a little more than 2 percent of coronavirus patients require ventilators.''

''Changing behavior is essential — and some preliminary research shows it could help at least slow down the spread of the virus, so that not so many people get sick all at once and flock to hospitals.''
 
They had been treated in nursing home in Washington state with ventilators and such. Orginally before it was known this was covid, paramedics were treating them right there at the scene (as was protocol), before taking them to the hospital, that's how they think the virus spread so widely there. If you shutter the place, where exactly do you place the patients infected with corona virus? No other nursing home will take them.
The reason the death rate there is so high is because almost all of them got infected, and they are old sickly people with pre-existing conditions. But they were treated, unlike in Italy, which can't even provide treatment to elderly because of the strain on their medical system brought on by covid.

BBM. Not so. Some of the patients were there recovering from surgical procedures such as knee replacements. The responding paramedics were alarmed quarantine protocol wasn't being followed by the nursing staff. Not a single mention of a ventilator in this news story. CPAP machines are not ventilators and this nation isn't Italy. 34 First responders exposed unnecessarily not to mention the victims this nursing home harmed via unprofessional nursing practices.

The ominous days leading up to the coronavirus outbreak in the Seattle area

Evan Hurley, a 9-year veteran with Kirkland Fire and a union trustee, said a firefighter relayed this story: On Friday, February 28, the firefighter arrived at Life Care, walked in, and saw a charge nurse in just her scrubs. No mask, no protective gown.

“Hey, you guys are supposed to be in self-quarantine,” the firefighter said.

“No, we’re not,” the nurse replied.



“Well, our chain of command talked to your management, and they say something different.”


The nurse insisted; she hadn’t heard anything, she said.


The firefighter looked down the hall and saw two caregivers in scrubs -- no mask or gown.


“What the hell?” the firefighter thought. “Who is not telling you that you have two suspected coronavirus cases?”

Later the nurse and firefighters would learn that it was more than just two suspected cases: Two people from Life Care had died the week before from coronavirus. Eight more who had spent time at Life Care would die in the following week.

At 10 that night, the firefighters heard from their captain.

“You’re shut down,” the captain said. The first coronavirus death had been reported, and the firefighters had been exposed, as had many from across the department.

In total, 31 firefighters and 3 police officers would ultimately be quarantined or isolated. As of this writing, 18 are showing symptoms.


 
Local officials alarmed by dearth of ventilators, hospital beds
rbbm.
"It's about our supply of ventilators, our supply of beds, and of course we have to worry about our health care workers and the general stress on our health care system," said Dr. Amy Acton, the head of the Ohio Department of Health. "If we stay below a certain threshold, we can try not to overwhelm our health care system. So we need to take aggressive measures now."


Ventilators, which provide mechanical breathing assistance and can make the difference between life and death for those patients who need them, represent the clearest limitation on the health system’s capacity to handle the outbreak. U.S. hospitals have a total of 160,000 ventilators — 62,000 full-featured ventilators, and 98,000 more basic ones that can be used in an emergency, according to a 2020 study by Johns Hopkins University.

And it’s not just the machines. The respiratory therapists who treat these critically ill patients are also in short supply, several doctors and hospital leaders point out''.

'' Based on early data from China, a little more than 2 percent of coronavirus patients require ventilators.''

''Changing behavior is essential — and some preliminary research shows it could help at least slow down the spread of the virus, so that not so many people get sick all at once and flock to hospitals.''

What I learned after my dad developed ARDS after a car accident is that very few nursing homes care for patients on ventilators. Very few, because of the need and expense for those respiratory techs who run the machines.

JMO
 
They were definitely taking some of the residents to hospitals.
"Ambulances have arrived each day at Life Care, with emergency workers wheeling away the sick on a stretcher. In some instances, a white sheet is held up to shield the patient from cameras. Of the 27 total COVID-19 cases to emerge statewide as of Tuesday evening, 14 have been linked to Life Care, according to officials. Some 50 people among the facility’s 100-plus residents and 180 staff were being monitored for signs of the illness, officials said over the weekend."
First days at the heart of an outbreak: Life Care nursing home becomes national epicenter of coronavirus
 
Our restaurant, busy tonight and last night.
We are a bit of a social hub of doctors, lawyers and elders.
They are not buying the media's, The end of the world as we know it pitch".
Some told us that they purposely came to dinner at our place to support us.
My husband and myself, do not believe, that this virus is the end of the world as we know it either.
As to why, entire countries have shut down EVERYTHING.
I have no answers.
The deaths are very low, throughout the world.
Yes, there is PANIC.
But, numbers do Not lie.
You all know that there is media that makes money on your every click.
I wish that the media cared more about the human race, instead of money.
Just consider this. Please.
Stop the panic.
We'll be fine.
 
MyBelle, are you from Nebraska? I’m wondering if I saw the same local press conference you did or if the local lady I saw here in Nebraska was saying 10 minutes of being near someone too. It’s encouraging to me if it really does take 10 minutes!
Yes, I am in Nebraska. It was Dr. Adi Pour speaking and she knows what she's talking about. I think this crisis has turned a corner at least in Nebraska, a less populated state.

JMO
 
MyBelle, are you from Nebraska? I’m wondering if I saw the same local press conference you did or if the local lady I saw here in Nebraska was saying 10 minutes of being near someone too. It’s encouraging to me if it really does take 10 minutes!
Yes, I am in Nebraska. It was Dr. Adi Pour speaking at a news conference and she knows what she's talking about. I think this crisis has turned a corner at least in Nebraska, a less populated state.

JMO
 
Our restaurant, busy tonight and last night.
We are a bit of a social hub of doctors, lawyers and elders.
They are not buying the media's, The end of the world as we know it pitch".
Some told us that they purposely came to dinner at our place to support us.
My husband and myself, do not believe, that this virus is the end of the world as we know it either.
As to why, entire countries have shut down EVERYTHING.
I have no answers.
The deaths are very low, throughout the world.
Yes, there is PANIC.
But, numbers do Not lie.
You all know that there is media that makes money on your every click.
I wish that the media cared more about the human race, instead of money.
Just consider this. Please.
Stop the panic.
We'll be fine.

Yes, you will be fine. Your community will support you.

JMO
 
I'm of the school that people have to prepare for the worst in items like these.

"Worst case" for me right now living in the United States would be a breakdown in supply chains, coinciding with chain and small businesses closing indefinitely. I walked last evening here in Fort Wayne, several businesses right outside the downtown area are closed indefinitely.

Wait until the corner stores, the gas stations, and other things people often depend upon on a daily or at least weekly basis shut down. The municipal bus companies. Etc.

The virus will be bad enough, people who can't handle reality all that well, especially for short-term needs because they can't or won't plan ahead, and what might happen as this unfolds I fear more.

These are my concerns as well. I walked my dog around the main streets. I saw a lot of people in the restaurants. The Hispanic joints were crowded. Others were just slightly less than full. Stores were crowded. And some jerk raced through the parking lot at high speed at me as I crossed from the median to the Petco entrance. I had to jump out of the way. I was waiting for family inside and trying to get away from someone walking in my direction. This guy in a truck saw me and sped up super fast.

I think some unstable people can be sent over the edge by this.
 
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