Choice no. 3 is good, as long as we are prepared to accept that 20% of those who test positive to not survive. This stat seems rather constant - that 19% of those with closed cases are in the morgue.
It's one thing to look at average age and comorbidity. It is not only people over age 80 or those with a secondary condition (e.g.: obesity) that are hospitalized. People of all ages die, and many that recover will have reduced life span due to virus damage; such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. This is where option no. 2 becomes safer for the herd.
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Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,219,240 Cases and 228,194 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
I think 20% is high for a CMR (case mortality rate). While it's clear we don't know the total number of deaths, we can take a doomsday view and say perhaps it's twice as high as what we think it is. But that's really taking a dire view, since Italy has good data that out-of-hospital CoVid related deaths are not equal to the in-hospital ones - perhaps 50% more deaths than reported may be due to CoVid and some underlying condition.
228,194 deaths out of 3.2M is not 20%. 10% would be 321,924 deaths. So, we're at less than 10%
reported rate. And this number does seem pretty stable as time goes on (less than 10% - about 5-7%). The total mortality rate is therefore very small. If every single person got CoVid and the mortality rate was 10%, then we'd eventually have 800,000,000 deaths world wide, approximate. But it's important to know that number too.
At any rate, per tested case, the rate fluctuates from locality to locality, with places like Lombardy and New York bumping those averages way up and accounting for so many global deaths. Germany, Greece, California, Kentucky, Hawaii, Montana, Japan, South Korea (the list is really long) have much lower rates. Many factors, including newness of hospitals and housing, the build of HVAC systems, the availability of immediate imaging via x-ray or MRI, the availability of PCR equipment for testing and most of all, the ability to track the disease and quarantine everyone who came into contact with a known carrier.
The death rate per confirmed case, where I live, is only 3.2%, no where close to 20%. That's for my county, and for my city, it's 2.7% of people diagnosed who die.
Los Angeles County has, by comparison, a 4.7% rate of death per case.
Further, it's clear that this number fluctuates by "latitude" (an indirect measure of vitamin D? Probably).
And that particular number (death per case diagnosed) depends heavily on how much testing is being done. Death per total population is probably a better number - but when we look at that, the rate is much smaller.
