Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #52

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Vice Pres. Mike Pence wears a face mask as he tours a ventilator production facility in Indiana. Pence was scrutinized earlier in the week for going without a mask while visiting patients at the Mayo Clinic, despite the clinic's policy

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ABC News on Twitter
 
I have a friend who had a rash some time ago. Nothing seemed to take it away. Her Dermatologist had her try small amount of bleach in her bath water. Worked like a charm and she said her skin was surprisingly smooth after.
I used it for a bad outbreak of poison oak one summer. Just a cup of bleach in a full tub of water and it worked great. Cleared it very fast. My grandmother suggested it and I trust her. RIP
 
It's all about probabilities. We have to figure out for ourselves what is best. Many come to the conclusion that they are low risk and should continue with most activities for families with a few children, front line jobs, shared parenting, buying basics for the family, and other responsibilities. Others have a bad feeling that the virus will either kill them or reduce the length and quality of life expectancy. Two camps. People of all ages are in both camps.

The death rate per resolved cases is 19%. The death rate per million is something completely different.

It might mean that 20% of positive cases are hospitalized and 20 % of those end up in the morgue. That would mean that 5% of the population dies from the virus.

In case someone needs a link, sources for the numbers:

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,219,485 Cases and 228,201 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Okay - I see where you're going. And yes, it does look that the per case rate is around 5% (not sure anyone uses the "per resolved case" rate very often and that one is going to fluctuate quite a bit as more cases are deemed "resolved" - whatever that means).

Of people who showed up with symptoms or risk in New York and were tested (they're still not testing anyone, just people who look sick enough to possibly need treatment/hospitalization) - 40-45% were positive for CV. 23,477 have died. New York's total number confirmed positive is 306,000 and I believe they've tested something near 800,000 by now. So about an 8% per confirmed case rate.

That too makes for a different "resolved case" scenario. NY obviously has more total cases to resolve, whereas, where I live, we've tested about 10,000 and only 500 tested positive - about 5%. Of those, 17 have died.

Since different hospitals and different doctors have different views about what "resolved" means and some cases are even getting marked "unresolved" when the person is found to be still shedding virus a month later..not sure how we can use resolved cases to understand very much.
 
I have a friend who had a rash some time ago. Nothing seemed to take it away. Her Dermatologist had her try small amount of bleach in her bath water. Worked like a charm and she said her skin was surprisingly smooth after.

Googled ... putting bleach in bath water
"To decrease bacterial infections and reduce symptoms,
bleach baths are sometimes recommended.
Add 1/4 -1/2 cup of common 5 % household bleach to a bathtub full of water (40 gallons).
Soak your torso or just the infected part of your skin for about ten minutes.
Limit diluted bleach baths to no more than twice a week."
 
Yep, that might be best, except we miss out on all that experience and wisdom.
It feels to me that an experienced nurse could work at home, and be on call for younger nurses, who are on duty. It would be great for them to have someone to ask questions too while on the front line.
Good idea!
I see I need to expand my view on who can really “work at home” :) (DH always gets calls from work On his days off because they can’t figure things out without his input lol. I guess he’s a “blue collar” worker? Warehouse for a telecom company)

And maybe that young nurse feels like mopping and emptying trash and cleaning toilets on top of her nursing duties. Our facilities staff is a good percentage “older” or otherwise at higher risk people. :( Many of them have been at their jobs here for 20-30 plus years. And cant retire until closer to 70 yrs old. Or they just keep workiNg until they die. Just the facts of life for some of our society I guess
 
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Coronavirus: Over-50s should be in isolation longer, says study | Daily Mail Online

Experts Say Younger People Should Be The First Groups Released From Lockdown

It Is Based On Evidence That Younger People Are Less Likely To Die From Covid-19

The Over-50S Are 20 Times More Likely To Die From Coronavirus Than 20-Year-Olds

"Keeping the over-50s in isolation longer and requiring people to prove their age when out and about is 'the safest way out of lockdown', researchers claim.

A Warwick University study found that a 'rolling age-release strategy' was the best option to end the lockdown introduced to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus."

Very good article, with experts from both economics and epidemiology suggesting an age related release strategy as economies are reopened. I don't agree with their method of enforcing it, but it is a good basis for an important public policy debate (a quick one), and also for employer-based policies regarding reopening.
 
Doctor behind remdesivir study says it's a 'glimmer of hope' | Daily Mail Online

April 30, 2020

  • The study showed that patients who were given the Ebola drug recovered from coronavirus 31% faster than whose who did not
  • It also reduced the mortality rate among them from 11.6% to 8%
  • Dr. Fauci said on Wednesday the results were 'really quite important' and showed a drug can block the virus
  • The FDA may approve the drug as early as Thursday to try to fast track treatment
  • The flurry of enthusiasm boosted the stock markets and sent shares of Gilead Sciences, which makes the drug, up by nearly 7%
  • Dr. Aneesh Mehta was among the doctors who gave patients the drug for the study
  • He told Good Morning America it was a 'glimmer of hope' in the fight against COVID-19
  • Other studies, including one in China, suggest the drug is less effective
ETA to add more of the headline since I see the post is being discounted without directly reading or referencing the news link.

Doctor who took part in remdesivir study says it's a 'glimmer of hope' that can be combined with other drugs to give COVID-19 patients 'tailored therapies' - as Fauci calls the market-boosting
medicine proof the virus CAN be stopped

One of the doctors behind a promising remdesivir study, which shows it can be used as a treatment for COVID-19, has called it a 'glimmer of hope' and says he is now studying how to use the Ebola drug with other medications to give patients 'tailored therapies'.

His promising comments came on Thursday morning after Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading coronavirus expert, said the drug breakthrough was 'very important' and proved that a drug can stop the virus.

ETA: Citations for FDA also referencing as Ebola Rx

Ebola Virus News, Pictures and Victim Updates | Daily Mail Online
 
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Good point. Deaths per confirmed cases is one fact we have today. That's 19%.

Deaths per million are ... mortality rate of between 5-6%. That is very likely the 5% of hospitalized cases that end up in the morgue.

View attachment 245003

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research

Antibody tests do not equate to immunity or absence of contagion yet. Until tests can demonstrate that recovered people are no longer contagious, antibody tests are pointless.

No, they are not pointless. They tell us how long the virus has been in a population and what rates of symptoms are for that particular population.

If, as we're finding, as many as 15% of people on the street in New York have already had CoVid (whether they are still virulent or not is a second question), but that they had no symptoms, can recall no symptoms, or the symptoms are described as "I had a cough for a couple of days," then we know something about asymptomatic transmission. This is crucial in assessing my own risk and the risk of everyone in a public-facing job. It helps understand how policemen are acquiring the disease when they aren't working in hospitals (that guy in the back of the car who looked healthy, well, he wasn't...)

It points us to other conclusions (asymptomatic transmission rates), such as mask-wearing, social distancing, etc.

I don't understand how you think this is pointless, when it so greatly encourages our ability to plan.

And how, exactly, do you propose that medical and scientific researchers figure out whether immunity lasts? We must know whether a person has antibodies, how high their titers, are, etc, before making assumptions about lasting immunity. Where might we study this? In healthcare workers. And so far, recovered doctors and nurses are not getting reinfected/shedding active virus at a high rate (looks, though, like maybe 4-5% may shed for longer than two weeks - which is good to know). What's the relationship between Ab titers and shedding?

Well, the more antibodies you have, the less likely you are to shed. So people who are the threshold of having undetectable antibodies are the ones shedding. This is in line with what we know about every other virus on this planet - so while the rates are a little different, the overall process is the same.

And I will bet you a whole stack of donuts that if a person is infected for a second time, the course of the illness will be moderate, mild or imperceptible. For the over 80 crowd - perhaps not, gerontological immunology and virologist has established that immune systems are not as vibrant in the elderly, although 80 is merely a rough number. One very old immunologist told me that "If I survive my 70's, my chances of living to 90 are very good." He meant that he knew he was more vulnerable from about age 75, but that if he continued to work and circulate in public and survived to 80, it mean he had a way better immune system than average. He also told me not to take antibiotics until I was very hold, so that they could be used more effectively when I needed them.

He lived to be 95 and worked around viruses, viral patients, lab animals (primates), and with the homeless. He didn't retire at all, really, until he was about 85.
 
Shouldn't at-risk workers be put on furlough until it is safe to return to the work force. Let them collect unemployment, maybe up to the full paycheck. It seems better to pay them not to work, to save lives, and reduce the burden of the health care system. And furlough means they have a job to go back to.

One issue for employers regarding furloughs is that they will still have to play for employee health care. For an employer with over 3,000 employees and huge budget cuts, they may not be able to do this. But I think they should find a way to cut salaries of the highest paid employees for one year, perhaps, to keep their workforce intact and protect vulnerable employees. But this would be enlightened leadership and very rare. MOO.
 
Your post should be read by all, as you outline three general courses of action and all have moral and economic arguments both for and against.

I don't feel "elderly," and never thought I'd be considering retirement a bit early. Fortunately, I do have a job where I can work from home and I'm pretty sure that my employer will encourage me to do so indefinitely. It will be up to me, though.

Do I want to be a "shut-in" forever? What do I do with the knowledge that average LE may be dropping? Next year, I think we'll see that people who have both flu and CoVid are in danger of dying. The median age for CoVid deaths will be known for sure, and it will be lower in the US than in, say, Sweden.

I too watch Sweden daily. They are getting a bit alarmed at their strategy of "no containment, herd immunity." I can understand why they're doing it this way, it's what human communities have done for centuries. If the median age at death in Sweden (a healthy nation) is around 79, then that means that all of us should strive to be as healthy as possible. This is a personal decision and it's one we should all be deciding upon.

So, I'll go for my walk today, I'll continue to try and eat properly, get lots of sleep (always a problem for me). I'd say that I'm a generally healthy but overweight 65 year old with a history of asthma - and blood clots. The blood clots were caused by a doctor who put me on an Rx (talked me into it, really) that has a known association with blood clots - but only 1 in 100,000 women had that reaction. I was one of them. So...am I really healthy?

Maybe not. My family sure thinks I should try to avoid getting CoVid, as for me, it would likely be more serious than the flu. I almost never get the flu, despite being in classrooms for years. I almost never get the flu shot either, but I will probably get one next year - as it may help with general immunity plus it's clear that people who get both CoVid and the flu are in a lot of distress and are very ill, whether they die or not.

I'm curious, @The Night Watchman, how you're thinking about the next 10 years. In 10 years, you'll be "elderly." If you got CoVid between now and your 60th birthday, the chances of you surviving or even having mild symptoms are very high.

But if you don't - then do you ever think about what happens as your 67th birthday approaches? The rates of CV19 should be much lower by then. Or we'll have something of a vaccine. I have lots of friends, family and colleagues who are your age. Will our workplaces continue to support allowing 65+ people to work from home, etc? SSN doesn't kick in until around 67 for most of you.

I guess I'm asking to what degree your own longterm planning is affected by this pandemic (and the global economic chaos into which we are descending).

I think that for people your age, we need to reopen as sanely and softly as possible, but without a near-term reopening, people's health is going to be affected by more than just CoVid which, as you rightly point out, is probably not a very great threat to you.

You can imagine how even younger people are feeling - their whole lives disrupted, future opportunities cut short, for a disease that has little biological impact on them.

Googled, About 15 percent of adult Canadians between the ages of 25 and 35 live with their parents. (Also, many parents subsidize and assist their adult kids financially)
Before COVID-19, everyone I know that are in their fifties were just busy banking pension hours. Abrupt halt to that.
 
i believe our unions are discouraging taking furloughs Because there isn’t any set end date/it’s at employers discretion? /so I’m not sure but they’re concerned we won’t have jobs to go back to? I’ve not really been keeping up with all those details and not sure how all that works.
Just to say the unions are discouraging it :)

Eta ^^^ as an “in general” thing not necessarily at risk employees.

My over 60 work bestie with underlying Health conditions is currently taking fmla (May or May not be an option for at risk folks?)

Struggling with these questions and what to do next - plant with 1000 people reopened after several positives and one death.
Temp checks but everyone bunches up to clock in and out - no social distancing. Work elbow to elbow, in this workplace the assembly line/manufacturing nature of the business is not set up to provide separation.
People pulling down masks to talk over the noise.
Can take FMLA - but that is unpaid leave, no money coming in. Asked for temporary furlough but denied because there is plenty of work available in the plant.
So if you’re a healthy 50-55 year old with Rx managed issue - it’s a hard choice.
Especially if a caregiver with parent(s).
 
Brazil has 212 million people and wuhan virus deaths of 5513. A ridiculously low percentage. Not sure how they got "soaring" out of that. But whatever.

Brazil Coronavirus: 79,685 Cases and 5,513 Deaths - Worldometer

population of brazil 2020 - بحث Google

Well, probably because 14% of people who were diagnosed died. Plus, of course, way fewer hospital beds and in addition to the 5,500 deaths - they have over 8000 people in critical care.

Keep in mind that much of Brazil isn't reporting at all - we're only seeing stats for the big cities. So, having 400-500 extra people die per day is a lot for the morticians and hospital staff.

I figure the rates in Brazil will be lower than in some places due to climate, but also that there's severe under testing and under-reporting in Brazil. In fact, I'd bet doughnuts (again) that nearly all of the people tested were white collar, upper middle class or higher. I know one doctor said it was devastating native populations in the interior - but those areas are now closed off almost entirely from any form of communication with the coastal cities - they're on their own, with whatever medical assistance they already had (usually from a couple of public doctors and a lot of missionaries).
 
Remdesivir is not an Ebola drug. It failed.

"The drug [Remdesivir], made by the US company Gilead Sciences, is an antiviral that was trialled in Ebola, but which failed to show benefits in Africa."​

First trial for potential Covid-19 drug shows it has no effect

ETA to add more of the headline since I see the post is being discounted without directly reading or referencing the news link.

Doctor who took part in remdesivir study says it's a 'glimmer of hope' that can be combined with other drugs to give COVID-19 patients 'tailored therapies' - as Fauci calls the market-boosting
medicine proof the virus CAN be stopped

One of the doctors behind a promising remdesivir study, which shows it can be used as a treatment for COVID-19, has called it a 'glimmer of hope' and says he is now studying how to use the Ebola drug with other medications to give patients 'tailored therapies'.

His promising comments came on Thursday morning after Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading coronavirus expert, said the drug breakthrough was 'very important' and proved that a drug can stop the virus.

ETA: Citations for FDA also referencing as Ebola Rx

Ebola Virus News, Pictures and Victim Updates | Daily Mail Online

I've not watched the referenced Goodmorning America interview

Aneesh Mehta of Emory University Medical School talks to @GStephanopoulos about data collected during coronavirus drug trial and what comes next. https://abcn.ws/3d2VryY

4:18 AM - 30 Apr 2020
 
i believe our unions are discouraging taking furloughs Because there isn’t any set end date/it’s at employers discretion? /so I’m not sure but they’re concerned we won’t have jobs to go back to? I’ve not really been keeping up with all those details and not sure how all that works.
Just to say the unions are discouraging it :)

Eta ^^^ as an “in general” thing not necessarily at risk employees.

My over 60 work bestie with underlying Health conditions is currently taking fmla (May or May not be an option for at risk folks?)

Here is a good example of someone that should have been furloughed and not worried about money-

Sandra Kunz wanted to keep working as a Walmart (WMT) cashier even as the coronavirus spread.

Despite a lung condition, the 72-year-old in Aurora, Colorado, needed to get her paycheck, according to her sister, Paula Spellman. Her husband, Gus, was injured and out of work, and the couple had bills due.
Kunz died on April 20 from complications related to the coronavirus, her sister said. Gus, who was also sick from the virus, died two days before his wife.
While it is unclear how the couple contracted the virus, Spellman said her sister had expressed concerns about customers at Walmart coughing on her at the cash register.

"I wish she didn't work there. I wish she had taken leave," Spellman said. "I get angry because she should have been more protected."


Sandra was in the bullseye of coronavirus.

72 with a lung condition. Interacts with people all day. And "needed to get her paycheck". What were her odds of dying from going to her job each day- maybe 10% or more?

America failed those in nursing homes. There is alternate path to more failures in the future- protect the vulnerable.

This is the most dangerous place in the grocery store - CNN
 
Vice Pres. Mike Pence wears a face mask as he tours a ventilator production facility in Indiana. Pence was scrutinized earlier in the week for going without a mask while visiting patients at the Mayo Clinic, despite the clinic's policy

EW395ybWAAQeO_b


ABC News on Twitter
Atta boy!

I give credit to anyone willing to change their mind and mend their ways.

jmo
 
ETA to add more of the headline since I see the post is being discounted without directly reading or referencing the news link.

Doctor who took part in remdesivir study says it's a 'glimmer of hope' that can be combined with other drugs to give COVID-19 patients 'tailored therapies' - as Fauci calls the market-boosting
medicine proof the virus CAN be stopped

One of the doctors behind a promising remdesivir study, which shows it can be used as a treatment for COVID-19, has called it a 'glimmer of hope' and says he is now studying how to use the Ebola drug with other medications to give patients 'tailored therapies'.

His promising comments came on Thursday morning after Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading coronavirus expert, said the drug breakthrough was 'very important' and proved that a drug can stop the virus.

ETA: Citations for FDA also referencing as Ebola Rx

Ebola Virus News, Pictures and Victim Updates | Daily Mail Online

I don't think any article that refers to Remdesivir as an Ebola drug can be taken seriously. It is one of many drugs that were developed with the hope that it worked with Ebola, but it failed. Remdesivir is not an Ebola drug.
 
At the moment I'm at home with confirmed Covid-19, my symptoms are mild with a fever of above 38,0 Centigrades (100 F) if I don't take paracetamol, a headache that won't go away, tiredness, and very mild cold symptoms. No breathing difficulties, cough, aches or anything else. I most likely caught it at work (emergency department), as we have had more and more patients with suspected corona during last week, and one of my colleagues have also got it. Now I have to stay at home until all symptoms are gone + two more days. I got a call from one of the doctors at the Department of Infectious Diseases, as well as from a nurse at the Disease control unit at the hospital, giving me advice and what symptoms to be observant of.

The number confirmed cases here in my part of Sweden is still low, 73 cases, and 2 deaths. The laboratory capacity have been increase and now all hospital staff, and personnel taking care of elders, are tested if they have any symptoms that could be coronarelated.

Sorry to hear this, @FrostOwl . Sending you hugs, or elbow bumps, or just waves across the North Sea and ‘round the corner. Stay ok and keep us posted :)
 
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