Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

[tresir2012]

Wow. Did Scotland also separate out its nursing home deaths? Did they add them back in and get that jump?

Scotland was doing so well at first, and I knew things are getting worse in Ireland - enough so that they are having shortages in medical equipment/ICU beds, etc.

Is the Scottish population in general older?

The life expectancy in Scotland at 78 is generally lower than the UK as a whole at 81, I believe.

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2020) - Worldometer

Have found stats for Scotland, see below link. It does look like the deaths from Covid are 2,795. Zero deaths under age 14. 75% of deaths are aged over 75. 43% of deaths are in care homes.

Deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland | National Records of Scotland

 

[tresir2012]

From what I understand just about any virus can switch Kawasaki on in a child that gets it. It may not be causing it, so much as facilitating it. Jmo

I think that is possibly the case. Maybe the high temperature? That alone can be very dangerous in kids as they don't sweat.

 

[tresir2012]

This is about indiana, it's mostly Greek to me but down the page is some data about comorbidities. If someone cares to dumb it down for me, have at it.

COVID-19 Dashboard - Regenstrief Institute

ETA ohhhhh I found graphs!

Ok my interpretation is it is improving. MOO

 

[tmar]

This is a beautiful inspirational video. We all need a little grace in our lives,

So beautiful. Thanks, to a virtual Aussie.

 

[Mo Thuairim]

The overall rates are falling almost everywhere - yes, that's good news. I'm glad to hear that there was no shortage of ICU beds. The peak in Ireland was around April 24, and several sites reported that beds were tight, testing was limited, etc. Here's a comparison, though, of Ireland and Sweden in terms of ICU beds - with the author making the point that Ireland couldn't have followed Sweden's method, due to insufficient ICU beds in Ireland - so the disease was managed with shutdowns (that's probably what I'm remembering).

That's what most places are doing. Here's the article:

What can we learn from Sweden's Covid-19 ICU figures?

I guess Sweden has far more beds than Ireland?

This source gives Ireland only 50 ICU beds, can that be? It really sounds wrong but it's IMHE:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

BBM. On your question about Irish ICU bed numbers, the answer is: it's complicated! But yes that IHME figure of 50 you found is totally wrong.
Our pre-Covid number of ICU beds was 257. This was increased in March to 285, plus additional 'surge' capacity that would allow our healthcare system to care for up to 411 critical patients, according to this article.

Ireland’s hospital system can deal safely with just 411 patients requiring intensive care facilities, critical care specialists have maintained.

(...)

The representatives of various organisations in the critical care community in Ireland warned that recent surge capacity, which has been developed in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, represented “a short-term solution” and was “not sustainable”.

It said the surge capacity was “provided by staff who are redeployed working with the support of intensive care unit staff”.

(...)

“Recent funding in March of this year from HSE/Department of Health brought our base adult critical care bed numbers from 257 adult beds (197 level 3 and 60 level 2) to 285 (239 level 3 and 46 level 2), still far short of the HSE own recommendations (by 145 beds)..."

Ireland's ICU facilities can deal with just 411 patients, warn critical care specialists

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Taoiseach: Ireland 'going in the right direction' to begin re-opening next week, but testing concerns remain

TAOISEACH LEO VARAKDAR has indicated that the country remains on track to begin phase one of the government’s roadmap for lifting Covid-19 restrictions next week.

Speaking to Dermot and Dave on TodayFM, Varadkar said that a limited easing of restrictions would begin on Monday if Ireland’s management of Covid-19 continued, although he did not specify what improvements had been made.

“If things continue to go in the right direction they have been for the last couple of days, Cabinet on Friday will give the green light for things to change on Monday,” he said.

The government has previously indicated that from next week, people will be able to meet in a small group outdoors if they maintain physical distancing.

A return of outdoor work such as construction will also be allowed and some retailers such as garden centres will be able to reopen.

Senior politicians and the Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan have said they are hopeful that conditions will be right to allow this to happen, but it is not guaranteed.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

He's very pleased today that a Harvard doc is saying vitamin D is very compelling and a randomized clinical trial is going to be done on Vitamin D as regards to COVID19. (reference at Does Vitamin D Protect Against COVID-19?)

Notes from paper are: Evidence that patients with respiratory infections tend to have lower blood levels of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D.

Some evidence from COVID-19 patients as well. Found eightfold higher risk of having severe COVID illness among those who entered with vitamin D deficiency compared with those who had sufficient vitamin D levels.



He had reviewed prior papers showing supplementation was associated with a significant reduction in respiratory tract infections 12% to 70% reduction of respiratory infection with vitamin D supplementation. So the evidence is becoming quite compelling.

So folks, take your vitamin D supplements! (He also notes that 90% of vitamin D is from the sun) MOO

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Regarding contact tracing: You can take a free 5-hour course from Johns Hopkins through coursera.org.

About this Course
The COVID-19 crisis has created an unprecedented need for contact tracing across the country, requiring thousands of people to learn key skills quickly. The job qualifications for contact tracing positions differ throughout the country and the world, with some new positions open to individuals with a high school diploma or equivalent.

In this introductory course, students will learn about the science of SARS-CoV-2 , including the infectious period, the clinical presentation of COVID-19, and the evidence for how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted from person-to-person and why contact tracing can be such an effective public health intervention. Students will learn about how contact tracing is done, including how to build rapport with cases, identify their contacts, and support both cases and their contacts to stop transmission in their communities. The course will also cover several important ethical considerations around contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. Finally, the course will identify some of the most common barriers to contact tracing efforts -- along with strategies to overcome them.

COVID-19 Contact Tracing | Coursera

Thanks so much for this. I signed up for the JH Free Online tracing course and am already to through the second interviews portion for the example of how to speak to contacts.

I did miss one question as it make me cringe. That someone is not a contact if they were talking face-to-face without a mask for 5 minutes. I was thinking these days, they would be. (nope, still 15 minutes required per this learning module) Just seems to fly in the face of the reason we are wearing masks iykwim.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

When we first starting talking about COVID, we felt very well prepared because we have a whole history of testing within the industry as well as contact tracing and production shut-downs," said Mike Stabile, spokesman for the Free Speech Coalition, a trade association for the U.S. adult entertainment industry.

"This is obviously a different type of virus, this is a different type of threat, but we understood in general how it would work and what we'd need to do in order to protect ourselves," he said.

The protocols were established in the late 1990s after a *advertiser censored* actor forged an HIV test and infected several others in the industry.

*advertiser censored* star Sharon Mitchell, who is now a physician, created a system now known as PASS (Performer Availability Scheduling Services), in which *advertiser censored* actors are required to be tested for sexually transmitted diseases every 14 days. The results are entered into a database which informs producers and directors who is clean and available for work.

"All it tells us is a binary. Are you clear to work or are you not clear to work?" Stabile said.

Stabile said the coronavirus, which is more easily transmitted, is a more complex problem but that the *advertiser censored* industry was open to working with mainstream Hollywood studios to share its expertise.
...
Hollywood movie studios, television networks and groups representing actors and directors have been brainstorming for weeks on how to re-start production while protecting everyone from actors to make-up artists and camera crews.

Ideas include quarantining all cast and crew for the length of a shoot, medics on sets, temperature tests every 12 hours, and substituting extras and crowd scenes with computer generated imagery, according to leaked documents and industry sources.

Movie and TV production in Europe - including Iceland, Denmark and the Czech Republic, where many Hollywood shows are filmed - is expected to resume before the United States, according to the film commissions in those nations. But questions linger over insurance and how much actors and directors will want to travel when the outbreak has yet to be contained in many countries.
Lessons from *advertiser censored* industry could help Hollywood adapt to coronavirus

 

[anneg]

Thanks so much for this. I signed up for the JH Free Online tracing course and am already to through the second interviews portion for the example of how to speak to contacts.

I did miss one question as it make me cringe. That someone is not a contact if they were talking face-to-face without a mask for 5 minutes. I was thinking these days, they would be. (nope, still 15 minutes required per this learning module) Just seems to fly in the face of the reason we are wearing masks iykwim.

Good for you! I didn’t sign up because I found the time involved rather daunting (5 hours to take the course). My ability to focus on a task is not good these days.

I wonder what the 15 minute rule is based on. There must be research backing that. But I agree with your reaction!

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Guess I'm grateful to be on a beta blocker. Jmo

There have been lots of articles about the heart meds. The link is very new information though....

Study Finds No Link Between Blood Pressure Medications and Increased Risk for Patients with COVID-19

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Although...don't you think that the standard of care for CoVid is changing? Instead of most people dying on ventilators, it's now down to around 50% or less. People are surviving because of better care. And there really are going to be treatments within the next few months.

I understand the logic, but science can't "frontload" solutions. Those take time. Even just the knowledge about how important Vitamin D is, to mortality, wasn't known up front - but seems more and more promising (in that people with more Vitamin D in their blood have lower death rates - by at least 20%).

I'm one of those who thinks that CoVid's current death rates will come down slowly, on a per case basis, as medical science progresses. What if we find out that the treatment regime of July is a vast improvement over that of March? Because I think it will be.

Just the availability of several anti-virals (in scarce supply right now) will go up. Now we know a lot more about why ventilators need to be dialed down.

We're all learning a lot from Sweden, and I do hope that the world shares its scientific discoveries and manufacturing of medicines with Sweden fully. Personally, I think that as CoVid moves into places that have had low rates, Sweden won't be the only nation that uses this approach.

Might be better to get CoVid after the anti-virals and synthetic antibodies are available, though. Something to think about.

Regardless of what happens, Sweden is such an important part of this world of COVID. I still think there are significant issues that make it work better in Sweden: A solid universal healthcare system; The Swedish Culture; and true support and acceptance of what governance instructs the people to do. That just cannot happen in the US. Maybe a "section" of the US, but not the whole country.
We are continually learning from what Sweden is doing.

 

[Trino]

Interesting that a majority of people are willing to upload a contact tracing app if it is established by the CDC ... and yet a majority of people are not willing to upload the app if it is established by the federal govt.
The federal govt seems to pretty much own CDC.


The main source of CDC discretionary funds is budget authority, which are annual appropriations determined by the U.S. Congress. In FY 2019, Congress appropriated $6.5 billion in budget authority to CDC and directed the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary to transfer $804.5 million in Prevention and Public Health Funds (PPHF) to CDC for a total program funding level of $7,339,025,000.
Partnering with CDC |Gifts to CDC

Deja vu... Amazing how some Americans go about their daily lives not knowing.
I recall an interview where a woman stated she was so glad she did not have to get Obama Care but was now insured through the Affordable Care Act.

 

[MimosaMornings]

Memorial Day is approaching and public/community pools are posting they will be opening. How do you social distance at a pool? Do you give each person a square?
Limit the number of people? Wear a face mask and not put your head under water?
And how do you tell kids to keep 6-10 feet apart in a pool?

 

[Juno]

As a mother of a child who was treated for "suspected" Kawasaki years ago when he was 4 years old, I find this Covid link interesting. Kawasaki has no true test, so because my son had a fever of unknown origin, peeling red lips and hands, red eyes, sore throat and a red rash all over his body they treated him as though he had Kawasaki with IVIG. He showed no heart issues or the classic strawberry red tongue. The Covid type issue with kids doesn't appear to have some of the classic Kawasaki traits, although there are definite similarities. If these Covid cases become linked with Kawasaki these families will have years of follow up Echocardiograms and Cardiologist visits to confirm no further damage to the heart. Just wanted to add my experience with this disease.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Does anyone know why these viruses just stopped?

Stated they were more easily controlled as transmitted when symptomatic (e.g. no asymptomatics or 2 days prior to symptoms as COVID has), and aren't as contagious, etc.

Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?
published April 14, 2020

"SARS and MERS didn’t cause the same level of devastation that COVID-19 has largely because they aren’t as easily transmitted. Rather than moving by casual, person-to-person transmission, SARS and MERS spread from much closer contact, between family members or health care workers and patients (or, in the case of MERS, from camels to people directly). These viruses also aren’t spread through presymptomatic transmission, meaning infected people don’t spread it before they have symptoms. Once people got sick, they typically stayed home or were hospitalized, making it harder for them to spread the virus around.

“By and large, except for a couple of mass transmission events, almost all of the transmission of SARS was within the health care setting, when you have an aerosol-generating event like intubating someone or dialysis,” said Stephen Morse, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “So basically, you could control SARS by improving infection control and prevention in the hospitals.”

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Good for you! I didn’t sign up because I found the time involved rather daunting (5 hours to take the course). My ability to focus on a task is not good these days.

I wonder what the 15 minute rule is based on. There must be research backing that. But I agree with your reaction!

It's available until December 30th for free. So, if you have 5 hours during now till then, you are good to go! You can stop at any time and pick up later, and it's broken up into 4-25 minute modules. I read the transcript vs. watching the video to make it go faster. I had nothing better to do last night (nuthin on tv lol) so I just delved into it.

 

[weepingangel]

Through non-profit Jay-Z, Meek Mill providing 10 million masks to inmates

Through a $10 million donation from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, the non-profit created by hip hop artists Jay-Z and Meek Mill will provide 10 million masks to inmates in prisons across the country.

The funds were donated to the Reform Alliance, a prison reform non-profit co-founded by Meek Mill, Michael Rubin and Jay-Z. Dorsey donated the money as part of his #startsmall initiative amid the coronavirus pandemic.

More at link

 

[Trino]

Memorial Day is approaching and public/community pools are posting they will be opening. How do you social distance at a pool? Do you give each person a square?
Limit the number of people? Wear a face mask and not put your head under water?
And how do you tell kids to keep 6-10 feet apart in a pool?

How? You keep your own kids safe at home. They may be really be angry now, but they will appreciate your concerns when they become adults.

 

[Trino]

The problem with herd immunity is that it is beginning to look like those who have recovered suffer long term, potentially life long, ailments. Do we want a population with people of all ages suffering permanent health damage from the virus? That's a consequence of herd immunity.

The 1918 virus stopped, so did SARS. We can't assume that it stopped because of herd immunity.

I previously posted (with link) a graph showing herd immunity is 55%, and this will not be reached in the US by 2022.