Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #58

[Amonet]

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.
There have been 41 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.

New virus in China ‘will have infected hundreds'

Up to 4,500 patients in China may have caught the same strain of coronavirus that has killed two people, scientists fear.
Health officials in Wuhan – the city at the heart of the outbreak which started in December – confirmed four new cases today, taking the total to 48.
But Imperial College London researchers say this may be the 'tip of the iceberg' after analysing flights out of the city.

Scientists fear up to 4,500 Chinese patients may have caught the new coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

Updates and chat - United States:
Current Statistics for Each Individual States

Updates and chat - Other Countries:
Stats and Information from Other Countries

Safety Tips and Things to do While Quarantined
Facial Mask Making - Coronavirus
Grocery shopping tips during Coronavirus quarantine
Recipes to share during Coronavirus quarantine
Health and Safety Tips for living under Coronavirus quarantine
Quarantine Vegetable Gardens

WS Members/loved ones who have Coronavirus and testing

Individuals and Companies that have donated to the Coronavirus COVID-19 cause

Memorial Thread - COVID-19 Coronavirus

______

Case details for US and Canada:
COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

Case details for the entire world:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 206,893 Cases and 8,272 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

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[Tricia]

Hey Everyone,

If you want to quote what the president or anyone in his administrations who give information on what they are doing to contain the virus that is absolutely fine.
THIS IS ME BEGGING NOW. NO MATTER HOW FRUSTRATED YOU FEEL, HOW GRATEFUL YOU FEEL OR HOW YOU FEEL WITH ANY OF THE COMMENTS COMING FROM THE WHITEHOUSE OR THEIR ADMINISTRATION DO NOT PUT IT ON THIS THREAD. DO NOT PUT TOGETHER A POST THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A POLITICAL STATEMENT AND THEN TRY AND SAY IT IS NOT.
PLEASE USE OUR PRIVATE MESSAGING SYSTEM IF YOU WISH TO DISCUSS POLITICS IN ANY WAY. YOU CAN HAVE UP TO 20 PEOPLE ON A PRIVATE MESSAGE. LOOK IN THE UPPER RIGHT-HAND CORNER. YOU WILL SEE YOUR USER NAME. NEXT TO THAT IS "INBOX". CLICK ON INBOX AND YOU CAN ACCESS YOUR PRIVATE MESSAGE SYSTEM.

OK, not begging now.

I am so impressed with our members posting much-needed info and members helping each other. I swear I sit here and cry happy tears at how incredible you are with this pandemic.

Please join me tonight on Websleuths Live on YouTube at 10:00 PM Eastern. CLICK HERE to join us live. We have a great chat room going on. and I want to personally invite you all to join us. One main rule. If you a jerk in chat or if you start making inflammatory comments about politics or whatever you will be kicked out. Then you will be forced to listen to Donny Osmonds "Puppy Love" for 30 days. So please behave.
See you tonight.
Love,
Tricia
PS. I actually love Donny Osmond. Very talented, a great businessman and fantastic human being, but, Puppy Love is painful. LOL

 

[Sillybilly]

Please remember ...

No blatantly political posts.
Do not be rude or argumentative.
Do not discuss other members or enquire as to their whereabouts. Members are entitled to their privacy.

Do not discuss moderators, moderation, or removed posts. Doing so can result in a temporary or permanent ban from Websleuths.

If you state information as fact, you must provide a link to support that fact. No link, no post !!

Members may copy their own posts from the general discussion thread over to relevant, more local threads in other appropriate Covid-19 sub-forums. If you think someone else's post relates specifically to another thread within the forum, please use the Report feature to let Mods/Admins know and we will move it on over for you.

If you wish to start a new thread, please run it by a Mod or Admin for approval.

Stay safe, healthy, strong and be kind to others.

 

[CocoChanel]

MOD REMINDER:

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC SUB-FORUMS THAT HAVE BEEN CREATED TO DISCUSS THE MANY ASPECTS OF THIS EXTRAORDINARY TIME. PLEASE TRY TO KEEP YOUR POSTS ABOUT SPECIFIC TOPICS IN THOSE SUB-FORUMS TO ALLOW THOSE INTERESTED IN THOSE TOPICS TO SEE YOUR POSTS. POSTING THEM IN THIS MAIN THREAD MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND THEM AND CAN VEER THE MAIN THREAD A BIT SIDEWAYS. THANKS FOR TRYING YOUR BEST TO KEEP US ON TRACK!

BELOW ARE SOME QUICK LINKS, BUT THEY ARE EASY TO FIND UNDER THE MAIN COVID HEADING ABOUT SAFETY TIPS AND THINGS TO DO WHILE QUARANTINED:

VEGETABLE GARDENS
QUARANTINE RECIPES
GROCERY SHOPPING
HEALTH & SAFETY TIPS
MAKING YOUR OWN HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
FACE MASKS FOR PROTECTION
HOMESCHOOLING
SMILES CAFE

Faithfully,
CocoChanel
Moderator

 

[Sillybilly]

Permanent thread bans have been and will be issued for members who persist in trying to make the thread about politics.

In case you have not read the opening posts above, please etch this part of Tricia's post above in your memory:

NO MATTER HOW FRUSTRATED YOU FEEL, HOW GRATEFUL YOU FEEL OR HOW YOU FEEL WITH ANY OF THE COMMENTS COMING FROM THE WHITEHOUSE OR THEIR ADMINISTRATION DO NOT PUT IT ON THIS THREAD. DO NOT PUT TOGETHER A POST THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A POLITICAL STATEMENT AND THEN TRY AND SAY IT IS NOT

 

[CSIDreamer]

Oh my gosh.

Denver health officials order coronavirus closure of U.S. Postal Service facility serving millions in Colorado, Wyoming

KUSA-TV reports state health officials confirmed five workers have tested positive for the virus at the facility that employs about 1,800. The Denver Department of Public Health and Environment issued the order Thursday, the day after investigators said they were denied full access to the facility.

 

[Simply Southern]

Best information imo, I've seen explaining the major models and the core measures and focus of each. Information on changes and updates modelers made based on the previous week or month and new needs identified.

Amazed me, IHMEs initial objective was to determine hospital SURGE capacity and quickly evolved to include many other aspects that needed prediction.

We, have the ability to predict the weather, 7 days out with an 80% accuracy rate. By combining and analyzing major models. So modeling does work and we are good at it.

Thanks to Nick, for all his hard work and long hours!!!


What computer-based models can tell us about coronavirus -- and what they can't

Science correspondent Miles O’Brien reports on how the efforts that go into making these models -- and their ultimate purpose -- are more complicated than many of us realize.

Miles O’Brien:

Nearby, at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, they built a much simpler model that started with a specific question in mind: Did the health care system have the capacity to treat a surge of COVID-19 patients?...

Miles O’Brien:

But the model initially assumed there would be widespread adoption of social distancing restrictions in the U.S.
Once it became clear that wasn't happening, the modeling team went back to the drawing board, releasing a new version on May 4. It now uses mobility data gleaned from cell phone usage to better understand how well people are complying with the expert advice.

As a result, that model's projection for the total U.S. death toll by August 4 from COVID-19 instantly went from about 72,000 to 134,000.

Miles O’Brien:

Ensemble modeling, meaning combining the predictions of many different models, it's a crucial tool that has greatly improved forecasting the weather and, in the past three years, seasonal influenza as well.

Nick Reich is an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. Working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, he leads a team that builds ensemble models to improve predictions of the spread of the flu.

Nick Reich:

I don't think any one model should be viewed as gospel truth.

When you just use one model, you end up with a too strong reliance on one particular set of assumptions and one particular viewpoint. And this is why it's really critical to consider multiple models together.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Maybe....but this article makes a pretty good case for it....

Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected | The Spectator

A team led by Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine argues that it is wrong to assume that herd immunity will only be achieved when 60 per cent of people have been infected. It is more likely, they argue, that the true figure lies between 10 and 20 per cent. The 60 per cent figure, they say, is based on the idea that we are all equally likely to contract the virus. In reality, there is a wide variation in an individual’s susceptibility to becoming infected. People who are frail or who have greater exposure to the virus – perhaps because they are working in an intensive care unit – are in practice far more likely to contract the disease. As the epidemic progresses the pool of easily-infected individuals dries up and the virus has to search out new victims who are less-easily infected.

Modelling by Gomes’ team aims to calculate the ‘coefficient of variation’, which quantifies the variability in individuals’ susceptibility to the virus – with zero denoting no variability at all (ie we are equally likely to be infected). If this coefficient really were zero, say the scientists, then herd immunity would only be achieved when over 60 percent of the population has been infected. If the coefficient were four, on the other hand, it would be achieved when 10 per cent of us were infected. The team then looked at real-life data to try to deduce what the coefficient of variation really is and concluded that it is in the range of just under two to just over three. That would mean herd immunity could be be achieved when between 10 and 20 per cent of us have been infected.

Not really. Immunity threshold is a function of (R0 – 1)/R0 = 1 − 1/R0. The Ro of Sars-Cov2 is ~2.5.

 

[jjenny]

Here is what happens when unproven drug is given to sick patients for no scientific reason. And people without medical degrees shouldn't blabber on national TV how something is a magic bullet with no evidence.
"Seriously ill Covid-19 patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were more likely to die or develop dangerous heart arrhythmias, according to a large observational study published Friday in the medical journal The Lancet."
Large study finds hydroxychloroquine Covid-19 treatments linked to greater risk of death and heart arrhythmia

 

[SoCalDavidS]

This great site is still projecting 190K total deaths by August 4. That's exactly double today's total.

Let's look a little closer at that figure. If you say that the deaths pretty much started around March 1, that makes just under 3 months of the pandemic to reach 95K. This projection is saying that in the next approx. 2 1/4 months, we're going to double that amount, so less time than it took to get where we are now. This takes into account the fact that the worst hit states like NY & NJ, have brought their #'s way, way down. So from that it can be deduced, that there are other states more than making up for that decrease.

covid19-projections.com/

 

[nhmemorymaker]

Not really. Immunity threshold is a function of (R0 – 1)/R0 = 1 − 1/R0. The Ro of Sars-Cov2 is ~2.5.

I felt this article was missing true factual information, so tried to see any reposting or response to validate this article in The spectrum.

I only found one, printed in another conservative press similar to the Spectrum. (the only one in English anyway). It presents much much more of the R0 data that is necessary when defining herd immunity. More statistically researched information of experts is much more crucial to understand. I would love to see lower statistics for covid, if they are truly proven....but would certainly not want to spread the words in this article.

I still think that Sweden is one of the best examples out there for us to learn from. But as we have stated over and over, Sweden culture is sooo different than US, or probably UK, culture. When social distancing is built into the lifestyle, I guess there might be different ways to interpret herd immunity. But for now, I will live with experts who have been there/done that for years.

What's the Herd Immunity Threshold for the COVID-19 Coronavirus?

 

[Simply Southern]

Here is what happens when unproven drug is given to treat patients for no scientific reason. And people without medical degrees shouldn't blabber on national TV how something is a magic bullet with no evidence.
"Seriously ill Covid-19 patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were more likely to die or develop dangerous heart arrhythmias, according to a large observational study published Friday in the medical journal The Lancet."
Large study finds hydroxychloroquine Covid-19 treatments linked to greater risk of death and heart arrhythmia

This drug was approved for compassionate care, meaning end of life, no known chance of recovery. Every patient or family is required to pre approve the use on themselves or loved ones. When some folks are on the deathbed, they may try anything, one last shot, a hail Mary. If it works great, if not blame the virus not the drug.

There is a risk with any and all drugs or basically anything we choose to put in our bodies.

A person can go for years with no side effects and BAM a life threating drug reaction. I experienced this in my 30s, with penicillin.

 

[jjenny]

This drug was approved for compassionate care, meaning end of life, no known chance of recovery. Every patient or family is required to pre approve the use on themselves or loved ones. When some folks are on the deathbed, they may try anything, one last shot, a hail Mary. If it works great, if not blame the virus not the drug.

There is a risk with any and all drugs or basically anything we choose to put in our bodies.

A person can go for years with no side effects and BAM a life threating drug reaction. I experienced this in my 30s, with penicillin.

Sorry, but you can't solely blame the virus if people given the drug die at higher rates than the ones not given the drug. Which they did, per the study. That's why studies are done first, then drugs are given. Otherwise you end up in this situation, where drug is having a detrimental effect and more people on it end up dead!

 

[Simply Southern]

This great site is still projecting 190K total deaths by August 4. That's exactly double today's total.

Let's look a little closer at that figure. If you say that the deaths pretty much started around March 1, that makes just under 3 months of the pandemic to reach 95K. This projection is saying that in the next approx. 2 1/4 months, we're going to double that amount, so less time than it took to get where we are now.

covid19-projections.com/

Looking at the model formula, it is based on ALL deaths, tested and untested. Not use where this number comes from, fact or estimate?

Note that our infections estimate includes all infected individuals, not just those that took a COVID-19 test kit and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of mid-May, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is ~5x higher than the reported cases.

On this page:

 

[jjenny]

This great site is still projecting 190K total deaths by August 4. That's exactly double today's total.

Let's look a little closer at that figure. If you say that the deaths pretty much started around March 1, that makes just under 3 months of the pandemic to reach 95K. This projection is saying that in the next approx. 2 1/4 months, we're going to double that amount, so less time than it took to get where we are now.

covid19-projections.com/

Because almost all states are stopping isolation, numbers are expected to go up.

 

[shotgun09]

I do not know if this has been posted to this thread, however I was greatly disturbed yesterday when I saw the video. I lost some sleep last night because of this.

Warning: Disturbing video content in link

Online video shows 20-year-old beating elderly nursing home patient

From the article:
"Why has this been covered up because they are responsible for the care of these patients whether it be this young man if he has a mental issue or these elderly patients who can't defend themselves," she said.

Detroit police believe the video was taken on May 15th while nursing homes remain on lockdown because of COVID-19 concerns.

Now Uhler wonders what would have happened if loved ones were allowed inside.

"Honestly I think if they were receiving visitors this would have been addressed a lot quicker than something like this having to evolve on Twitter," she said.

FOX 2 reached out to Westwood nursing home about the video and we are still waiting to hear back.

ETA: warning added

 

[Simply Southern]

Sorry, but you can't solely blame the virus if people given the drug die at higher rates than the ones not given the drug. Which they did, per the study. That's why studies are done first, then drugs are given. Otherwise you end up in this situation, where drug is having a detrimental effect and more people on it end up dead!

They could ONLY receive the drug, if death was imminent and they chose to take the drug. No physician or hospital forced folks to take the drug. They were already dying with no hope of recovery.

 

[Simply Southern]

I do not know if this has been posted to this thread, however I was greatly disturbed yesterday when I saw the video. I lost some sleep last night because of this.

Online video shows 20-year-old beating elderly nursing home patient

From the article:
"Why has this been covered up because they are responsible for the care of these patients whether it be this young man if he has a mental issue or these elderly patients who can't defend themselves," she said.

Detroit police believe the video was taken on May 15th while nursing homes remain on lockdown because of COVID-19 concerns.

Now Uhler wonders what would have happened if loved ones were allowed inside.

"Honestly I think if they were receiving visitors this would have been addressed a lot quicker than something like this having to evolve on Twitter," she said.

FOX 2 reached out to Westwood nursing home about the video and we are still waiting to hear back.

Very concerning, especially with infection rates in LTC. I live in a state that refuses to release any information on LTC facilities deaths or infectious rates. Per Virginia code, they count a LTC facility as a person, so if 30 die in a faculty it is counted as ONE, the same for infections, 30 infected it counts as ONE.

My state is closed and most everyone is working from home. Our LTC facility complaints are being followed up with phone calls, no one is actually going to the facilty. Family members aren't allowed in and rarely received returned calls inquiring about their relative.

I can't get this video out of my head. If it happens once then the likelihood, its more prevalent than we may think.

I am so worried for all in LTC.

Moo...

 

[jjenny]

They could ONLY receive the drug, if death was imminent and they chose to take the drug. No physician or hospital forced folks to take the drug. They were already dying with no hope of recovery.

If there is no hope of recovery, there is no reason to give an unproven drug with known dangerous cardiovascular side effects. And by the way, read the article. Patients given the drug died at a higher rate than patients not given the drug. That CAN NOT be blamed on the virus alone.

 

[The Night Watchman]

The CDC has finally come out of the shadows to state actual estimates of COVID-19 death rates.

Their best estimate = 0.27%.

In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.

The numbers are part of five planning scenarios that "are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government," according to the CDC. Four of those scenarios represent "the lower and upper bounds of disease severity and viral transmissibility."

CDC says 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic - CNN