Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #76

[tresir2012]

Can't be cases! Guv says "no masks needed" humm....

Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far

August 24, 2020, 5:30 PM EDT

People congregates at One-Eyed Jack's Saloon during the 80th annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally on Aug. 7, 2020, in Sturgis, South Dakota. The South Dakota Department of Health issued warnings that two people who had visited the bar may have transmitted COVID-19.

Health departments in four states, including South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming, have reported a total of 81 cases among people who attended the rally. South Dakota health officials said Monday they had received reports of infections from residents of two other states — North Dakota and Washington. The Department of Health also issued public warnings of possible COVID-19 exposure at five businesses popular with bikers, saying it didn't know how many people could have been exposed.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, has defied calls to cancel large gatherings and opposes requirements to wear masks. She welcomed the event, which in previous years brought in about $800 million in tourist spending, according to the state's Department of Tourism.

460k people all spending a few hundred dollars soon adds up. And if some are buying a new bike it would be even more. Would pay for a lot of tests.

 

[tresir2012]

Can't be cases! Guv says "no masks needed" humm....

Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far

August 24, 2020, 5:30 PM EDT

People congregates at One-Eyed Jack's Saloon during the 80th annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally on Aug. 7, 2020, in Sturgis, South Dakota. The South Dakota Department of Health issued warnings that two people who had visited the bar may have transmitted COVID-19.

Health departments in four states, including South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming, have reported a total of 81 cases among people who attended the rally. South Dakota health officials said Monday they had received reports of infections from residents of two other states — North Dakota and Washington. The Department of Health also issued public warnings of possible COVID-19 exposure at five businesses popular with bikers, saying it didn't know how many people could have been exposed.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, has defied calls to cancel large gatherings and opposes requirements to wear masks. She welcomed the event, which in previous years brought in about $800 million in tourist spending, according to the state's Department of Tourism.

460k people all spending a few hundred dollars soon adds up. And if some are buying a new bike it would be even more. Would pay for a lot of tests.

Huh. I don't understand. I've been following these numbers for quite some time, and what you report is not at all what I see:
Alaska is 1st with 447,601 tests/1M people
California is 13th with 269,600 tests/1M people
Arizona is 30th with 194,590 tests/1M people

Any idea why we'd see such drastically different stats?

I am looking at the total tests for states as well and CA are top there with 10 million total tests. That's about a quarter of their total population. Sorry I mistakenly misquoted the per mill stat from memory. I have edited to correct.

 

[anneg]

Kyona Yeager Recovering After Sudden Illness, Life Flight To Salt Lake City Hospital

Some good news! Kyona is getting better!

I loved reading this! I hope she recovers completely.

It sounds like she may have had the multisystem inflammatory syndrome that affects children and is associated with Covid.

From the link:
Her father posted on FaceBook--
Kyona’s improvement continues! Shes still however in the icu and needing help with her breathing. To be able to leave the icu she needs to be able to for the most part breath on her own with her levels staying in the same range they are now maybe a little better. She is at least a few days away from coming home. Her condition is acting more now like the regular covid than what (can’t remember what he called it) was wreaking havoc on her before. So just regular covid 19 thank God.

 

[Cool Cats]

460k people all spending a few hundred dollars soon adds up. And if some are buying a new bike it would be even more. Would pay for a lot of tests.

Yah...They are testing the whole town of Sturgis!

So the Rally that caused higher cases is paying for the testing for the higher case count that they caused ... Hmmm ... Well they got that covered ...

 

[10ofRods]

Just a heads up. Sturgis C of C counts its visitors by counting vehicles on Main Street and in the 9 big parking lots.

Many people are there for 10 or more days - each day they visit, they get counted again as a separate visitor. Cars are averaged as 2 visitors, bikes as 1 - it's an estimate, of course.

But it inflates the number and makes it sound way bigger than it was. No one knows the actual number. However, the two campground operators who responded to my queries said that most people stay for the entire time - so there are plenty of daily repeat visitors. Some of the bikes are clearly there day after day.

 

[10ofRods]

Huh. I don't understand. I've been following these numbers for quite some time, and what you report is not at all what I see:
Alaska is 1st with 447,601 tests/1M people
California is 13th with 269,600 tests/1M people
Arizona is 30th with 194,590 tests/1M people

Any idea why we'd see such drastically different stats?

Yep, Alaska is first. It helps to only have only 731,000 people and lots of tests.

 

[10ofRods]

Ok so total was 22 including the Nebraska and 1 Sturgis case so 12 more means 34 total that we know of so far. Another few days and we should not expect any more hopefully.

You need the R-naught rate. Do you know it? In order to predict it will get better, you need to know that rate.

If it is 1, then each person just passes it to one other person (which is hopeful). If it's less than 1, then only about 20 more people will get it.

It's highly unusual for 34 people with active CoVid to give it to zero people. South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana now have higher Rt (R-naught) rates than they did a month ago. Higher than 1, which means that on average, those 34 will infect about 37-38 people (who will infect 40-44 people and so on).

 

[tresir2012]

Every time i read more horror stories about the complications of this virus, i
cant get over how little we know about it, and how evil it is..This man is fortunate
the didnt disconnect him from other life support measures.



This is a situation when it is not good to not, shall we say, be very smart or use critical thinking to evaluate something as serious as a pandemic for themselves- instead they rely on garbage yak on Facebook ----

It wasn't all garbage. Some phone masts here in UK were actually set on fire either by people who believed it or people who wanted to spread the conspiracies.

Man jailed for 5G phone mast pandemic arson attack

 

[10ofRods]

Do Legal Restrictions Account for the Downward Trend in New COVID-19 Cases?

8.24.2020 2:45 PM

Downward Trend in New COVID-19 Cases?

(Ffikretow | Dreamstime.com)

Three weeks after newly identified COVID-19 cases began falling in the United States, The New York Times is acknowledging the downward trend, which it attributes to "effective restrictions." That explanation fits neatly with the paper's reflexive enthusiasm for lockdowns, but it does not fit the data very well.

So...what would you attribute it to?

 

[tresir2012]

You need the R-naught rate. Do you know it? In order to predict it will get better, you need to know that rate.

If it is 1, then each person just passes it to one other person (which is hopeful). If it's less than 1, then only about 20 more people will get it.

It's highly unusual for 34 people with active CoVid to give it to zero people. South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana now have higher Rt (R-naught) rates than they did a month ago. Higher than 1, which means that on average, those 34 will infect about 37-38 people (who will infect 40-44 people and so on).

Yes it is 1.16 and has been since 10th Aug when the rally began.

South Dakota Rt

IMO those people won't infect anyone if they know who they are as they will be in quarantine in those other states.

ETA I checked the other states with returning Sturgis cases and they all had not changed much since 10 Aug and 22 Aug.

 

[mickey2942]

I loved reading this! I hope she recovers completely.

It sounds like she may have had the multisystem inflammatory syndrome that affects children and is associated with Covid.

From the link:
Her father posted on FaceBook--
Kyona’s improvement continues! Shes still however in the icu and needing help with her breathing. To be able to leave the icu she needs to be able to for the most part breath on her own with her levels staying in the same range they are now maybe a little better. She is at least a few days away from coming home. Her condition is acting more now like the regular covid than what (can’t remember what he called it) was wreaking havoc on her before. So just regular covid 19 thank God.

That was the "MIS-C"? Yes. I am very worried about school starting. I wonder how many children will be affected. Sure, we can "say" that it "only affects .001%", or whatever number they pull out of the "random number generator". But, if it is your child, it is 100%.

 

[Cool Cats]

So...what would you attribute it to?

Me? I didn't know the cases were going down, I would have to research it. The article didn't give an answer. But going down is something positive which is why I posted the article.

 

[10ofRods]

I just had a look at the US states on worldometers and there is a column headed test per million. The highest state with 10 million tests, is California with nearly 300,000 tests per million population. Arizona is nearly 200,000 tests per million. So if they have identified and quarantined a lot of their positives, this could help enormously. MOO.

United States Coronavirus: 5,914,895 Cases and 181,103 Deaths - Worldometer

(There is a feature that is really helpful as you can sort by any column just by clicking on the header.)

Total deaths have been below 1000 for two days running 554 yesterday and 499 today. Hopefully this trend will continue. Perhaps the plasma is helping as highlighted yesterday by Trump in his PC.

Too soon to see much effect from plasma, as even though the FDA is okaying - there is a shortage. Donating plasma is not an easy thing to organize. Many categories of patients are excluded from doing it - and others just don't want to. Many still don't feel well.

I seriously doubt it's plasma at this point in time. It's something else, although plasma probably accounts for some percentage. Anti-virals and steroids seem to be the much more widely spread treatment, along with waiting on the ventilator.

But IMO, the main factor is that we have an entirely different demographic. New cases are mostly in the 18-44 age group (and that's been true for at least 3-4 weeks). We've secured nursing homes, elderly people (everyone I know over 60) are locking themselves down. Younger people just don't die of CoVId at the same rate as older people.

So, it will bump along among the younger people, and the death rates will be lower. Our new case rate is lower (perhaps for the same reason - people don't go get tested until they feel sick, younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic, ergo they are less likely to be diagnosed).

 

[10ofRods]

Me? I didn't know the cases were going down, I would have to research it. The article didn't give an answer. But going down is something positive which is why I posted the article, however I agree the article did not say why.

I hope so. I hope it's not just a reflection of what I just posted about (young people and children aren't being tested, as they are asymptomatic).

Something has to explain the clusters we're seeing. At any rate, it's good news that not so many people are showing up in crisis at healthcare centers, very good news. But we should all be aware that viruses are sneaky.

Looks to me like the USA's first wave is slowly ending. People avoiding social activities is certainly one factor - but there is also the fact that people don't rush to be tested if they are asymptomatic.

 

[Clair Louise]

Too soon to see much effect from plasma, as even though the FDA is okaying - there is a shortage. Donating plasma is not an easy thing to organize. Many categories of patients are excluded from doing it - and others just don't want to. Many still don't feel well.

I seriously doubt it's plasma at this point in time. It's something else, although plasma probably accounts for some percentage. Anti-virals and steroids seem to be the much more widely spread treatment, along with waiting on the ventilator.

But IMO, the main factor is that we have an entirely different demographic. New cases are mostly in the 18-44 age group (and that's been true for at least 3-4 weeks). We've secured nursing homes, elderly people (everyone I know over 60) are locking themselves down. Younger people just don't die of CoVId at the same rate as older people.

So, it will bump along among the younger people, and the death rates will be lower. Our new case rate is lower (perhaps for the same reason - people don't go get tested until they feel sick, younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic, ergo they are less likely to be diagnosed).

China has been doing this since very early on, but I haven't seen any results. Tom Hanks and his wife also donated their plasma.

 

[tresir2012]

Me? I didn't know the cases were going down, I would have to research it. The article didn't give an answer. But going down is something positive which is why I posted the article.

I think the article partly put it down to changed behaviour at the end.

 

[Yvettea]

Texas

Total Tests
4,937,231

Antibody Tests
335,184
as of 8/19/2020
————————————————
562,559 Cases Reported
10,793 Fatalities
119,806 Estimated* Active Cases
431,960 Estimated* Recoveries

Counties Reporting Cases
251 of 254
​

Texas

Total Tests
5,004,384

Antibody Tests
338,016
as of 8/20/2020
————————————————
567,580 Cases Reported
11,051 Fatalities
117,704 Estimated* Active Cases
438,825 Estimated* Recoveries

Counties Reporting Cases
251 of 254
​

You need the R-naught rate. Do you know it? In order to predict it will get better, you need to know that rate.

If it is 1, then each person just passes it to one other person (which is hopeful). If it's less than 1, then only about 20 more people will get it.

It's highly unusual for 34 people with active CoVid to give it to zero people. South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana now have higher Rt (R-naught) rates than they did a month ago. Higher than 1, which means that on average, those 34 will infect about 37-38 people (who will infect 40-44 people and so on).

What is the R-naught rate from your link? I have posted the daily statistics for Texas from the past three days believing we are experiencing progress. My hope is that is true because each day I do what I can to combat this virus. But as one person I can only make a little difference.

 

[tresir2012]

What is the R-naught rate from your link? I have posted the daily statistics for Texas from the past three days believing we are experiencing progress. My hope is that is true because each day I do what I can to combat this virus. But as one person I can only make a little difference.

South Dakota Rt

Texas Rt

Texas is 1.03

Texas

• Overall U.S.
• Alabama
• Alaska
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• California
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• D.C.
• Florida
• Georgia
• Hawaii
• Idaho
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• Minnesota
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• Montana
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• New York
• North Carolina
• North Dakota
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Texas
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Washington
• West Virginia
• Wisconsin
• Wyoming

Current Rt

1.03

Cases

560K

Tests

4.7M

Effective Reproduction Rate · Rt
Rt is the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 will spread quickly. If it’s below 1.0, infections will slow. Learn More.

Texas is doing good IMO.

 

[Cool Cats]

I think the article partly put it down to changed behaviour at the end.

NYT = cases down due to regulations from government.

Article = cases down due to people taking responsibility themselves.

Apples and Oranges pretty close to the same thing. 2 cents

 

[SouthAussie]

Too soon to see much effect from plasma, as even though the FDA is okaying - there is a shortage. Donating plasma is not an easy thing to organize. Many categories of patients are excluded from doing it - and others just don't want to. Many still don't feel well.

I seriously doubt it's plasma at this point in time. It's something else, although plasma probably accounts for some percentage. Anti-virals and steroids seem to be the much more widely spread treatment, along with waiting on the ventilator.

But IMO, the main factor is that we have an entirely different demographic. New cases are mostly in the 18-44 age group (and that's been true for at least 3-4 weeks). We've secured nursing homes, elderly people (everyone I know over 60) are locking themselves down. Younger people just don't die of CoVId at the same rate as older people.

So, it will bump along among the younger people, and the death rates will be lower. Our new case rate is lower (perhaps for the same reason - people don't go get tested until they feel sick, younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic, ergo they are less likely to be diagnosed).

Many people do not realise the difference between plasma donation and blood donation.

My DD gives plasma, whereas I give blood. We make an appointment for the same time, then I go off shopping for 1½ hours after giving blood before my DD is just getting ready to meet me. Her procedure is a much longer one than mine.

People are not fond of giving plasma ... they used to call my DD frequently asking her to come in again. She asked them to ease up, she has a fulltime job and a busy life.
I would imagine that some people who can give covid plasma might feel the same.