Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #86

[10ofRods]

Okay, let's get real here (I hope most of you are interested in this).

The United States set a record for new cases. And our death rate is 33% higher than the rate for the world-as-a-whole. (We have more underlying conditions, we are also overwhelming our medical care, plus Covid has now arrived in places in the US with fewer diagnostic and therapeutic resources). 4% of Americans who get Covid die - and that's been a constant for some time.

The US has 101,775 new Covid cases today, and not all states have reported.

So, that's about 4000 predicted dead in future. Per day. For as long as this lasts and it's likely to go higher, just as Fauci (and many, many others) have said.

If this goes on all late fall and gets worse in winter, obviously these rates will go higher. But if this is as good as it gets, that's 28,000 dead in the US per week.

Some states with highest rates of new cases per capita:

Illinois
Texas
Wisconsin
Florida
Michigan
Ohio
Minnesota
Tennessee
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming

(and frankly, a whole lot of other states are way above what they were, per capita). NY, NJ, CA, OR, WA OR, HI, AK not doing as badly - but not good).

Nothing is good here. States shipping patients to other states, and 1152 dead without all states reporting (33,000 a month at this rate...)

Actually 1192 dead in the USA today, still numbers missing from 1-2 states.

So the various projections made in August of about 1000 deaths per day until fall were right.

 

[mickey2942]

Do not go to a wedding, even if it is outside.
Do not go to a funeral, even if it is outside.

I think people have a false sense of security that going to social activities is fine, if they are outside, and you wear your mask. Or, maybe they take off their masks, because they are outside.

And, don't forget, small children and babies don't have to wear masks, and they DO get Covid, and they DO spread it.

 

[10ofRods]

NPR did a series on COVID and I remember one researcher suggesting that in bats, the virus that preceded COVID-19, if that was the origin, might have already mutated so many times that it would not be possible to trace it.

Bats In China Carry 400+ Coronaviruses With The Potential ...
www.npr.org › sections › goatsandsoda › 2020/02/20 › n...
Feb 20, 2020 — The coronavirus outbreak in China seems like an unusual event. But scientists have found that similar viruses have been quietly jumping from ...


(If this is not the exact cite, I will research further. They did a multi-part series. )

First, CV19 is a slow-mutating virus.

Second, all the virologists are in agreement that it is so closely related to the bat virus that the chances are something like 1 in 18 trillion that it came from someplace else. It's such a long sequence of bases (think of them as letters - there are 4 letters in the code; we're talking thousands of slots at which 4 different variables could appear (so 4 to the 1000th or higher power). CV-19 is a particularly long RNA virus. The code is random, the mutations started with just 1 mutation, creating 2 "sibling" styles of CV-19 and went from there. Each can be traced back to the original form.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...cterization-of-2019-nCoV-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

(It's pretty technical stuff, and some of the next citations are even more technical):

Complete Genomic Sequence of Human Coronavirus OC43: Molecular Clock Analysis Suggests a Relatively Recent Zoonotic Coronavirus Transmission Event

Genomic characterization of a novel SARS-CoV-2

I have a metaphor though. If you just started randomly punching at your keyboard (and it has to be totally random, not favoring any part of the keyboard) and you typed say 500,000 letters...that would be the original virus. The next version has a 1 letter change. Obviously, it's very similar to the first.

And so it goes on - each branch related to the prior one by just one change. That's how genetics always works. The difference, for example, between blue eyes and brown eyes is not large - only a few of these bases. And it took thousands of years for that to happen.

Viruses do mutate faster than our own genes, but CV-19 is slower than the flu. Its clock and its structure relate entirely back to a bat virus (with only one section that is a bit mysterious - apparently an insertion from someplace else).

The picture/article I've found most helpful to envision this is here:

The coronavirus genome is like a shipping label that lets epidemiologists track where it's been

 

[10ofRods]

Do not go to a wedding, even if it is outside.
Do not go to a funeral, even if it is outside.

I think people have a false sense of security that going to social activities is fine, if they are outside, and you wear your mask. Or, maybe they take off their masks, because they are outside.

And, don't forget, small children and babies don't have to wear masks, and they DO get Covid, and they DO spread it.

Yes, they do spread it (although if they are wearing masks and you are wearing a mask, and everyone stays 10 feet apart and merely waves...it's possible). Thing is, humans do not behave this way and no matter how disciplined I try to be, I creep closer and closer to the grandkids and my other loved ones and...well you know the drill.

Inside events (visiting people inside their homes) are absolutely a huge risk. Virions linger for at least 72 hours in some (many) rooms, bathrooms may have more virions, some versions of the virus may linger longer and you have no idea how much is around you. Some of us catch things easier (probably due to the way our nasal passages/mucosa work - you can't know this in advance).

If we had tests for "nasal immune effectiveness" we could each get tested and maybe stay safer (we could do this, but we haven't).

We all assess our own risks (I'm slightly less cautious than my uber-cautious DH) but yeah, if someone is trying right now to avoid CV, the rates are so high that..well, you should try to stay home if you possibly can.

Funerals are strange because people cry and emote and it's unlikely that everyone will remain masked and I know that I will be overcome with feeling and forget my rules.

 

[anneg]

First, CV19 is a slow-mutating virus.

Second, all the virologists are in agreement that it is so closely related to the bat virus that the chances are something like 1 in 18 trillion that it came from someplace else. It's such a long sequence of bases (think of them as letters - there are 4 letters in the code; we're talking thousands of slots at which 4 different variables could appear (so 4 to the 1000th or higher power). CV-19 is a particularly long RNA virus. The code is random, the mutations started with just 1 mutation, creating 2 "sibling" styles of CV-19 and went from there. Each can be traced back to the original form.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...cterization-of-2019-nCoV-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

(It's pretty technical stuff, and some of the next citations are even more technical):

Complete Genomic Sequence of Human Coronavirus OC43: Molecular Clock Analysis Suggests a Relatively Recent Zoonotic Coronavirus Transmission Event

Genomic characterization of a novel SARS-CoV-2

I have a metaphor though. If you just started randomly punching at your keyboard (and it has to be totally random, not favoring any part of the keyboard) and you typed say 500,000 letters...that would be the original virus. The next version has a 1 letter change. Obviously, it's very similar to the first.

And so it goes on - each branch related to the prior one by just one change. That's how genetics always works. The difference, for example, between blue eyes and brown eyes is not large - only a few of these bases. And it took thousands of years for that to happen.

Viruses do mutate faster than our own genes, but CV-19 is slower than the flu. Its clock and its structure relate entirely back to a bat virus (with only one section that is a bit mysterious - apparently an insertion from someplace else).

The picture/article I've found most helpful to envision this is here:

The coronavirus genome is like a shipping label that lets epidemiologists track where it's been

I like your metaphor (BBM above)--it's helpful.

 

[ColyH]

The U.S. total cases/million is 29551 and death/million is 723 which is considerably higher than India which is 6040/million cases and 90/million deaths. If India had our cases & deaths/million numbers around they would have 41 million positive cases and 1 million deaths. If we had there cases & deaths/million numbers we would have only 2 million positive cases and 29000 deaths.

 

[Lilibet]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed>

” Task force reports “exponential” increase.

US Covid-19: White House task force warns new cases are increasing 'exponentially' in weekly state reports - CNNPolitics

 

[SouthAussie]

This memorial is at the DC Armory parade ground in Washington DC.



500,000 cases in 7 days

 

[SouthAussie]

More than 400,000 people from Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado have been displaced by violence and are facing serious health risks due to poor living conditions, said the international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF).

Many of those who have fled attacks by armed groups and Mozambican forces are now living in unsanitary, overcrowded conditions. They lack clean drinking water and are exposed to malaria, while facing the increasing risk of an outbreak of measles, diarrhea, or COVID-19.

Mozambique: Urgent assistance needed for hundreds of thousands of people displaced by violence

 

[MimosaMornings]

'I am terrified': Winnipeg doctor with COVID-19 calls for backup in fight against pandemic — CBC News

“Owen Mooney is a healthy, fit, front-line doctor who had been fighting the coronavirus in Winnipeg hospital wards, but never expected that the virus would knock him out cold.

The 44-year-old internal medicine specialist has been on call 24/7 for the past week, treating and admitting wave after wave of patients with COVID-19 at St. Boniface Hospital.

In that time, seven or eight of his own patients died from the virus.

It was the most "heartbreaking and difficult and emotional week I've ever worked," he said. "Not only numbers but patients and families being isolated and dying alone. Which is not the way things should be.”

“The system is on the brink of collapse.... We're truly at a tipping point and may actually be well past it, to be honest with you. And I really worry about the next upcoming weeks."

 

[Lilibet]

'I am terrified': Winnipeg doctor with COVID-19 calls for backup in fight against pandemic — CBC News

“Owen Mooney is a healthy, fit, front-line doctor who had been fighting the coronavirus in Winnipeg hospital wards, but never expected that the virus would knock him out cold.

The 44-year-old internal medicine specialist has been on call 24/7 for the past week, treating and admitting wave after wave of patients with COVID-19 at St. Boniface Hospital.

In that time, seven or eight of his own patients died from the virus.

It was the most "heartbreaking and difficult and emotional week I've ever worked," he said. "Not only numbers but patients and families being isolated and dying alone. Which is not the way things should be.”

“The system is on the brink of collapse.... We're truly at a tipping point and may actually be well past it, to be honest with you. And I really worry about the next upcoming weeks."

This is awful. It’s starting to sound like NYC did last spring.

 

[SouthAussie]

'I am terrified': Winnipeg doctor with COVID-19 calls for backup in fight against pandemic — CBC News

“Owen Mooney is a healthy, fit, front-line doctor who had been fighting the coronavirus in Winnipeg hospital wards, but never expected that the virus would knock him out cold.

The 44-year-old internal medicine specialist has been on call 24/7 for the past week, treating and admitting wave after wave of patients with COVID-19 at St. Boniface Hospital.

In that time, seven or eight of his own patients died from the virus.

It was the most "heartbreaking and difficult and emotional week I've ever worked," he said. "Not only numbers but patients and families being isolated and dying alone. Which is not the way things should be.”

“The system is on the brink of collapse.... We're truly at a tipping point and may actually be well past it, to be honest with you. And I really worry about the next upcoming weeks."

I took a look at what is happening in Winnipeg. House parties.


Premier Brian Pallister said this week that private gatherings throughout the provincial capital were fuelling transmission and that he'd need help from police and RCMP to enforce a curfew if it's decided that the Winnipeg region needs one.

At a news conference Wednesday morning, Winnipeg Police Service Const. Rob Carver said that those who decide to defy provincial rules by holding house parties or other large gatherings will face fines.

"We've been doing education [about the public health orders] for a long time and the numbers have continued to go up," Carver said. "So now, we will be focusing less on education and more on enforcement.

"I think the time for education has passed here. The numbers are terrible."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-nov4-1.5789037

 

[ilovewings]

Denmark Will Kill All Farmed Mink, Citing Coronavirus Infections

In Denmark they are going to slaughter millions of mink at 1000 farms over
concerns that a mutation in the virus that has infected mink could possibly
interfere with effectiveness of a vaccine for humans.

 

[kkdj]

Denmark Will Kill All Farmed Mink, Citing Coronavirus Infections

In Denmark they are going to slaughter millions of mink at 1000 farms over
concerns that a mutation in the virus that has infected mink could possibly
interfere with effectiveness of a vaccine for humans.

 

[SouthAussie]

Ireland has started to suppress Covid-19 and has one of Europe’s lowest disease incidence rates after two weeks of maximum tier restrictions.

The R number, which indicates the number of people on average an infected person will infect, is now 0.7 and 0.9. To suppress the virus it must be below 1.

The cumulative 14-day incidence rate has fallen to 212.7 per 100,000 people, a 30% reduction. It gives Ireland the seventh lowest rate of 31 European countries, above Finland, Norway, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia and Greece.

R number in Ireland below 1 after two weeks of restrictions

 

[SouthAussie]

The patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church has been hospitalized after testing positive for the new coronavirus, days after leading prayers at a large public funeral for the head of the church in Montenegro, who died after contracting the virus.

Patriarch Irinej last Sunday led the prayers inside a packed church for the church head in Montenegro, Bishop Amfilohije, who had died after contracting COVID-19.

Many of those inside the church did not wear protective face masks or keep their distance from each other, in violation of coronavirus-fighting restrictions. Many kissed the bishop’s body in an open coffin.

Coronavirus live news: Greece orders new three-week national lockdown as Covid cases rise

 

[GRT]

Respectfully snipped for focus.

The United States set a record for new cases. And our death rate is 33% higher than the rate for the world-as-a-whole. (We have more underlying conditions, we are also overwhelming our medical care, plus Covid has now arrived in places in the US with fewer diagnostic and therapeutic resources). 4% of Americans who get Covid die - and that's been a constant for some time.
.

Why do we have more underlying conditions? Is it obesity-based? I've heard in the past that Americans are more obese than citizens of just about any other country.

 

[GRT]

Many of those inside the church did not wear protective face masks or keep their distance from each other, in violation of coronavirus-fighting restrictions. Many kissed the bishop’s body in an open coffin.

Oh boy!

It seems to me that we need to approach the church leaders and convince them if we're going to stand any chance of convincing their parishoners.

 

[JaneEyre]

Why do we have more underlying conditions? Is it obesity-based? I've heard in the past that Americans are more obese than citizens of just about any other country.

Our diet is different as well, which leads to high cholesterol, high blood pressure, heart disease, etc. America runs on fast food and processed foods. It's killing us.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I know the Washington Post is behind a pay wall for many... so copying a front page article here...........

Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus — by putting faith in science

People clink glasses at a cafe Oct. 29 on Melbourne’s Yarra River.
People clink glasses at a cafe Oct. 29 on Melbourne’s Yarra River. (William West/AFP/Getty Images)

By A. Odysseus Patrick
November 5, 2020 at 4:16 a.m. EST

SYDNEY — The Sydney Opera House has reopened. Almost 40,000 spectators attended the city's rugby league grand final. Workers are being urged to return to their offices.

Australia has become a pandemic success story.


The nation of 26 million is close to eliminating community transmission of the coronavirus, having defeated a second wave just as infections surge again in Europe and the United States.

No cases were reported on the island continent Thursday, and only seven since Saturday, besides travelers in hotel quarantine. Eighteen patients are hospitalized with covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. One is in an intensive care unit. Melbourne, the main hotbed of Australia's outbreak which recently emerged from lockdown, has not reported a case since Oct. 30.

Meanwhile, in the United States, 52,049 people are hospitalized and 10,445 are in an ICU, according to the Covid Tracking Project, a volunteer effort to document the pandemic. America's daily new cases topped 100,000 on Wednesday, and its death toll exceeds 233,000, a staggering figure even accounting for its greater population than Australia, which has recorded 907 deaths.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australia-coronavirus-cases-melbourne-lockdown/2020/11/05/96c198b2-1cb7-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d_story.html