Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020

[Mimi in London]

If by someone waited for her there you mean to do her harm, it seems very unlikely to me that they could do that and leave not a single trace, no blood, no torn clothing, no fingerprints, no dna, no damage to the property and of course who would know and what to do that? Remember there have been experts searching for her, I guess they'd notice the signs.

Unless it was someone she had met before, and trusted, and they pushed her into the lake.

 

[ZaZara]

Window of opportunity

How long was the window of opportunity for Esther to go missing? According to Dan she contacted him at 16:00 on the 22nd Nov from the pic de Sauvegarde, if we ignore the issue of when the photo he received was taken for the moment, she had, according to a named witness, Marti Vigo del Arco, passed him at around 15:00 so it is not unreasonable to believe she was at the pic. Dan states that her plan was to spend the night in the refuge de Venasque (the BBC reports that this last contact was from the pic and separately actually from the refuge, I think that’s just more poor reporting, you would think that they’d notice they have reported contradictory things!). Looking at hiking plans etc it is 1.5 hours from the refuge to the pic so I figure that it is at most 1.5 hours from the pic back to the refuge (downhill).

There is no sign that she was at the refuge, if she was there she should have signed in (and actually paid) “Un cahier des présences dans le refuge d’hiver est à compléter lors de votre arrivée.” (taken from the refuge de venasque site).

We also have plenty of reports suggesting that she was an experienced hiker, self confident, responsible and intelligent so given Dan says she was going to the refuge that’s exactly what she should have done, no deviations, etc, It would have been dark by 17:30 so no time to be doing other things anyway. Following on from this she should therefore, if she got there, signed in. An experienced and intelligent hiker would also know that in the event of something happening to them this would leave some sort of trail.

This leads me to suggest that there is only 90 mins for whatever happened to her to take place.

On that basis it seems very unlikely that a third party was involved in some sort of foul play. The hikers she met on the way did not report they had seen anyone else up there, they haven’t reported that someone else passed them in the same direction as the pic. In addition they have then got to do their foul deed, cleanup and hide any and all evidence and not be seen coming down themselves. There can’t have been many people that even knew she’d be up there so unless she just happened across someone prepared to commit serious crime (and then again, cleanup and hide all evidence) without any motive I can’t see a third party being involved. They would have to have means, motive and opportunity.

That leaves Esther coming to some other mishap but only on the trek from the pic to the refuge, thus a relatively small area to search and still no sign of her.

If on the other hand we say that Esther was not following what we believe to be her plan and did something (went somewhere) diametrically opposed to what she said then she would be harder to find given that she had a couple of days to do it. This is turn would lead me to think that Dan didn’t know her as well as he suggests which after all that time together would be very odd indeed.

She had 1.5 hrs befor darkness to go wherever she wanted to go. If she did not go to the Refuge, but in another direction, she had her tent that she could pitch wherever she needed it. The tent has not been found.

Since the tent has not been found, either she did not get a chance to pitch it, or she stayed somewhere in the tent, or where she did not need it (another refuge?) and left the next day.

IMO the SAR and the helicopter would have spotted the tent. They didn't. Network in the area is good at many places, and no one has seen Esther after Marti del Vigo met her on the Salvaguardia and Dan had contact with her from the top. Since the, her phone has not been active.

The Refuge de Venasque is a location of outstanding beauty, weather allowing. IMO ED would have loved to go there. Yoga comes to mind But the SAR dog found no trace of here there.

You said, and I agree:

We also have plenty of reports suggesting that she was an experienced hiker, self confident, responsible and intelligent so given Dan says she was going to the refuge that’s exactly what she should have done, no deviations, etc,

IMO most likely something happened to her between the top of the Salvaguardia and the Refuge that prevented her from using her tent and her phone.

 

[Tanzanite]

Eek. My first post after a couple of years of lurking!

The hiker Esther met on the 19th November (I think) - it's just about conceivable that he might not have read news etc. (and the other explanations suggested upthread), but hikers tend to let people know where they are, when they are expected to arrive at a given place and so on. Especially solo hikers. Those people at home - the points of contact for someone hiking in the mountains - would almost certainly have seen the news reports by now and given the relatively small number of people hiking at this time of year, realised that their friend could be 'the unknown hiker,' and let them know about Esther.

Even if he is absolutely nothing to do with Esther's disappearance, it does seem odd that he hasn't come forward yet. Or perhaps he has, and the police are not willing to share the fact. Could he request that they say nothing about him to the press, for fear that he will immediately have a great deal of press attention and all the theories and unfounded accusations that may come with it? Or is he avoiding saying anything to the police for that very reason, believing he has nothing to add to the investigation? Which brings me back again to the other people in his life who 'know' he is the mystery hiker - will they all stay just as quiet about it?

The timelines seem to take him out of the equation in terms of Esther's last known contact, but the radio silence on him/from him keeps scratching away in the back of my mind.

 

[kelsie]

Missing Esther Dingley's secrets, by the last man to see her alive | Daily Mail Online

 

[Strawberryjellyfishb]

I haven't looked at the terrain maps, but I was wondering if she fell down a slope towards one of the lakes, would she most likely end up in the deep part of the lake, or just at the edge of the lake. I would think she would lose stuff during a big fall, like her walking sticks before she came to a stop. Also if she went to the edge of a body of water to get water, wouldn't she take off her backpack and walking sticks first-so they would be at the edge of the lake even if she fell in?

 

[Strawberryjellyfishb]

I totally agree about not having divers - body recovery is too dangerous. If she was wearing a 50 pound pack, as reported/surmised, she might never surface. If the lake is deep (looks deep to me), the bones would slowly abrade in the depths (at least, that's possible). OTOH, some bones might wash up. Could happen, but I think a lot of missing persons who went into water with backpacks fail to surface at the usual 2-3 weeks. There are a couple of cases of this type in Yosemite National Park (so of course, I'm always looking for bone fragments aside the Merced River).

She could indeed have rag-dolled down into the lake at several different points. I've seen lectures how to judge momentum on various slopes, but we'd need to know where she fell to really estimate.

I too think the lake cannot be ruled out.

If it was cold, would her body be preserved in the lake until spring?

 

[Strawberryjellyfishb]

If it were me, I wouldn't waste daylight to stop and send a photo. I would wait until I was settled in for the night.

 

[Wyle_E_Coyote]

It would be so easy for something to go wrong, hiking solo in the mountains as it was getting dark. Something as simple as going a bit off trail for a bio break. It would be easy to get turned around and lose the trail, or think you were actually back on the trail and continue confidently hiking in the wrong direction. A simple step on an unexpected loose rock could cause a fall. Even experienced hikers have succumbed to dehydration and hypothermia. It just takes one poor decision to get into trouble.

 

[patCee]

The DM article refers to Mr Ballarin , an experienced hiker, and his grandson. I'm curious about the age of the grandson who might be a young teen/adult, when considering Mr B is 70. There's no mention of the police speaking to him though. For some time it was reported that the Olympic skier was the last person to see her alive. Now it''s Mr Ballarin and his grandson and it's taken 18 days to be reported.
The other curiosity is that the Benasque mayor had said there were 7 or 8 fatalities a year in the mountains. So we can only imagine how many serious accidents. Though a poster did give some figures further back. Why is this situation (I acknowledge Esther's life and safety is of the utmost importance) creating so much interest other than being British, to the point that DC has needed to have his own representation. When they are in fact living in France.
So what other pieces of this situation are missing.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

If it were me, I wouldn't waste daylight to stop and send a photo. I would wait until I was settled in for the night.

But she didn't know whether she would have phone reception at the refuge. Seems perfectly reasonable to send her partner an "I made it to the top!" message, while she could.

 

[Grouse]

I haven't looked at the terrain maps, but I was wondering if she fell down a slope towards one of the lakes, would she most likely end up in the deep part of the lake, or just at the edge of the lake. I would think she would lose stuff during a big fall, like her walking sticks before she came to a stop. Also if she went to the edge of a body of water to get water, wouldn't she take off her backpack and walking sticks first-so they would be at the edge of the lake even if she fell in?

Good points about the sticks and the backpack.

If this link works correctly it should show the view from near to the refuge, facing back toward Pic de Sauvegarde which I'm pretty sure is the peak to the right. You can see a smaller lake in the foreground and then further away you can just see the larger lake at the base of the mountain.

If you zoom in a bit towards that lake, the sides seem to very steep in places and consisting of loose scree. It also looks like a section of the path cuts right through one such steep section, above and just to the left of the further lake.

How the LE can say it's not conceivable that she fell in a lake is baffling to me.

Google Maps

 

[Grouse]

The DM article refers to Mr Ballarin , an experienced hiker, and his grandson. I'm curious about the age of the grandson who might be a young teen/adult, when considering Mr B is 70. There's no mention of the police speaking to him though. For some time it was reported that the Olympic skier was the last person to see her alive. Now it''s Mr Ballarin and his grandson and it's taken 18 days to be reported.
The other curiosity is that the Benasque mayor had said there were 7 or 8 fatalities a year in the mountains. So we can only imagine how many serious accidents. Though a poster did give some figures further back. Why is this situation (I acknowledge Esther's life and safety is of the utmost importance) creating so much interest other than being British, to the point that DC has needed to have his own representation. When they are in fact living in France.
So what other pieces of this situation are missing.

I'm confused. The Ballarin encounter was on 21st and the Olympic skier one on the 22nd. How on earth have they now managed to come up with a headline saying Mr Ballarin was the last person to see her alive?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9044787/Missing-Esther-Dingleys-secrets-man-alive.html

 

[CoverMeCagney]

I'm confused. The Ballarin encounter was on 21st and the Olympic skier one on the 22nd. How on earth have they now managed to come up with a headline saying Mr Ballarin was the last person to see her alive?

Missing Esther Dingley's secrets, by the last man to see her alive | Daily Mail Online

Because it gets more clicks and earns them a few pennies. Case closed.

 

[Grouse]

Because it gets more clicks and earns them a few pennies. Case closed.

Indeed. It's bad even by their standards though.

 

[Sjm_qc]

I’m going to try to muse on “window of opportunity” without going too far into what does that phrase actually mean.

Whatever I think about some and various media sources and how they report events, most/all/several report Esther as being seen - in person - on a trail heading up Salvaguardia at around 3pm on November 22nd.

Most/several/all reports have last “contact” not-in-person at around 4-5pm November 22nd from or near Salvaguardia peak.

Esther has not been seen or heard from since. She was reported missing November 25th.

So, IMO, the “window of opportunity” for her going missing is sometime after ~3pm November 22 and before whatever time the MP call was made Nov. 25th.

So, that’s up to 3 days, but in my speculative opinion could/can be narrowed down much further to her having some sort of accident (in the vicinity of Salvaguardia trail to Refuge de Venasque and/or surrounding areas including lakes) in the 12 hours following last sighting and/or last communication.

JMO, speculation, etc.

 

[Sjm_qc]

Treading carefully: I’ve sent off a couple or three emails asking for clarification/elucidation on some media reports.

If/when (I’m not holding my breath) I get any responses, I’ll run them by a mod before posting.

I have a very low success rate with asking media/LE sources for clarification on what they put out publicly, but occasionally it works.

Hey, it’s always worth a try.

 

[otto]

Window of opportunity

How long was the window of opportunity for Esther to go missing? According to Dan she contacted him at 16:00 on the 22nd Nov from the pic de Sauvegarde, if we ignore the issue of when the photo he received was taken for the moment, she had, according to a named witness, Marti Vigo del Arco, passed him at around 15:00 so it is not unreasonable to believe she was at the pic. Dan states that her plan was to spend the night in the refuge de Venasque (the BBC reports that this last contact was from the pic and separately actually from the refuge, I think that’s just more poor reporting, you would think that they’d notice they have reported contradictory things!). Looking at hiking plans etc it is 1.5 hours from the refuge to the pic so I figure that it is at most 1.5 hours from the pic back to the refuge (downhill).

There is no sign that she was at the refuge, if she was there she should have signed in (and actually paid) “Un cahier des présences dans le refuge d’hiver est à compléter lors de votre arrivée.” (taken from the refuge de venasque site).

We also have plenty of reports suggesting that she was an experienced hiker, self confident, responsible and intelligent so given Dan says she was going to the refuge that’s exactly what she should have done, no deviations, etc, It would have been dark by 17:30 so no time to be doing other things anyway. Following on from this she should therefore, if she got there, signed in. An experienced and intelligent hiker would also know that in the event of something happening to them this would leave some sort of trail.

This leads me to suggest that there is only 90 mins for whatever happened to her to take place.

On that basis it seems very unlikely that a third party was involved in some sort of foul play. The hikers she met on the way did not report they had seen anyone else up there, they haven’t reported that someone else passed them in the same direction as the pic. In addition they have then got to do their foul deed, cleanup and hide any and all evidence and not be seen coming down themselves. There can’t have been many people that even knew she’d be up there so unless she just happened across someone prepared to commit serious crime (and then again, cleanup and hide all evidence) without any motive I can’t see a third party being involved. They would have to have means, motive and opportunity.

That leaves Esther coming to some other mishap but only on the trek from the pic to the refuge, thus a relatively small area to search and still no sign of her.

If on the other hand we say that Esther was not following what we believe to be her plan and did something (went somewhere) diametrically opposed to what she said then she would be harder to find given that she had a couple of days to do it. This is turn would lead me to think that Dan didn’t know her as well as he suggests which after all that time together would be very odd indeed.

That makes sense - 90 minutes for her to vanish between Pic de Sauvegarde and Refugio de Venasque. It's a steep trek down the mountain using switchbacks and the trail passes near one of the deep lakes. If she deviated from the trail or encountered something like black ice, she could be in trouble in seconds.

Just a thought - but large backpacks for mountain hikes should have quick release fasteners for the waist and shoulder straps. That way, if someone ends up in the water, they at least have a chance to swim up without the struggle of removing the backpack in the water. IRRC, Michel Trudeau drowned trying to get out of his backpack in the lake after sliding down the mountain.

 

[PeggyHenry]

Esther Dingley: Police believe missing British hiker went missing voluntarily | Daily Mail Online

Yet another DM update - rehashing various others. The only couple of bits that interest me are:

1.Maria-Carmen told MailOnline: ‘Esther wanted to buy a packet of Chia seeds which were discounted. But you only get the discount if you have the Eroski loyalty card.

‘The girl at the till tried to explain this to her but she not understand because she did not speak Spanish.

‘So the girl called me and I came to explain this to her. She said that didn’t matter and bought the seeds any way. We didn’t have a long chat because I was on my way to work but she seemed a sad, thoughtful.’

2.
Sources close to the case insist the person pictured in the Chausson van late at night was not Mr Colgate, with whom she has been travelling with for six years.

Spanish police have dismissed the sighting in the Spanish resort of Benasque, but Matt Searle, spokesman for Esther’s family and Mr Colgate, told MailOnline: ‘Daniel and Esther’s family are extremely interested to find out who was inside the camper with the lights on.'

‘We are investigating the sighting of someone inside the van on 2 December. They are asking the Guardia Civil to investigate who it was as well.’

 

[PeggyHenry]

If it were me, I wouldn't waste daylight to stop and send a photo. I would wait until I was settled in for the night.

Well, I think I would probably take a selfie just to show I'd got to the peak, and post it on to whatsapp - it only takes 30 secs to do all of that. But then I'd be anxious to be on my way. How much daylight was remaining ? Let's say 1 .5 hours worth? Enough to get to the refuge, but not enough to descend.. (I think I'm correct in saying that). I would definitely be heading to the refuge.


Vigo is quoted as saying “She was coming up, we were on the descent, she was very heavily loaded with a very big backpack.”
I think it is slightly odd to carry such a large backpack when climbing like that.. but again, I dont know what is considered normal.

 

[Sjm_qc]

Esther Dingley: Police believe missing British hiker went missing voluntarily | Daily Mail Online

Yet another DM update

RSBM

I feel awful for Esther’s partner & family members who are not only having to deal with her disappearance, but also quite frankly downright fabulated sensationalist “reporting” .