UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #14

[Vixey]

It was popular to have a next catalouge. Orders could be made over the phone or by post.

Wonder if that what was posted! An order for holiday Clothing x

 

[Vixey]

It was popular to have a next catalouge. Orders could be made over the phone or by post.

Wonder if that what was posted!

Or did it arrive on the Wednesday while she was at work and she went out again to collect it from East Parade PO (2.50-3.05pm)?

Yes that could be possible x
order for holiday Clothing x

 

[Vixey]

I found Gerrad Tubb's remark in The Donal McIntyres Tv doc interesting perhaps it answers your question.
he says
'She had made calls to her parents which the police have never revealed where she was then she made those calls and of course they have a pretty good idea from the cell phone data but for operational reasons they have kept that to themselves and having made those calls she was never heard from again'
start at 13.19

The calls were made from home, So wonder If shortly after something happened in her home, Or forced to go out snd speak to someone.

 

[keep-it-real]

The calls were made from home, So wonder If shortly after something happened in her home, Or forced to go out snd speak to someone.

But were the calls made from her home @Vixey?
Joan said Cluadia was at home when she spoke to her because she could hear a tv programme they both enjoyed watching in the background she evn added it was on her tv in the bedroom and Claudia was about to go to bed as she had an early shift in the morning.
But was she at home, was she watching the tv programme in the bedroom or did Joan just presume this.
I know reconstructions are not always 100% accurate but on the Crimewatch programme Claudia was shown sitting on the sofa downstairs on her phone. A small detail I know but Claudia could have just as easily been at another location watching the programme. If she was with someone its unlikely she was going to say to Joan she was.
I would be interested if NYP or cold Case ever confirmed the calls were actually made from home.. good luck with that one. Ive been waiting fo months now for a response to my enquiry as to wether Claudia was caught on cctv walking to and from work on these dates 16,17, and 18th... make of that what you will

 

[Vixey]

But were the calls made from her home @Vixey?
Joan said Cluadia was at home when she spoke to her because she could hear a tv programme they both enjoyed watching in the background she evn added it was on her tv in the bedroom and Claudia was about to go to bed as she had an early shift in the morning.
But was she at home, was she watching the tv programme in the bedroom or did Joan just presume this.
I know reconstructions are not always 100% accurate but on the Crimewatch programme Claudia was shown sitting on the sofa downstairs on her phone. A small detail I know but Claudia could have just as easily been at another location watching the programme. If she was with someone its unlikely she was going to say to Joan she was.
I would be interested if NYP or cold Case ever confirmed the calls were actually made from home

I thought I had confirmation of calls made from home, but I will need to check to be sure x

 

[Popejohn3]

Wonder if that what was posted! An order for holiday Clothing x

The clothing would have arrived a few days later ?police would have been in contact with the company?

 

[keep-it-real]

I thought I had confirmation of calls made from home, but I will need to check to be sure x

Thank you ... thatwould be great if you have..

 

[Popejohn3]

I thought I had confirmation of calls made from home, but I will need to check to be sure x

It also depends on the detail of mum and daughter conversations for example they might have talked about private medical stuff J l is hardly going to say anything on national tv but she would have told the police this .and CL would have said I’ve got guests .
I do not think it’s wise to ignore police when they say they believe this and that !
Yes they believe she was at home yes they believe she went to bed early yes they believe she took her bag and set off to work next morning give them something they don’t know .

 

[Blonderabbit]

BlonderRabbit,
I notice that throughout these threads you ventilate on several occasions that the "Police used the bus footage to draw attentions to the white Astra van, they allowed the footage to continue down Heworth road allowing the perps they have been seen suv ect."
For clarification, what SUV and Perps are you referencing in that video?
White Vauxhall Astra Van
Many thanks in advance,

Well there is an SUV on the pavement directly outside 46 Heworth Road - at the same time as all activity stops. Coincidence? Or could this be connected - perps? Secondly - why allow the footage to continue if it is only the Astra Van that is of interest..

 

[Blonderabbit]

BlonderRabbit,
I notice that throughout these threads you ventilate on several occasions that the "Police used the bus footage to draw attentions to the white Astra van, they allowed the footage to continue down Heworth road allowing the perps they have been seen suv ect."
For clarification, what SUV and Perps are you referencing in that video?
White Vauxhall Astra Van
Many thanks in advance,

Whist you are on - give me an overview of The Lawrance case - what’s your thoughts?

 

[shadwell]

• What are the White particles in the bowl? Is it remnants of cereal with Milk soaked in? Or is it Yoghurt or bread ?
• Does anyone know what Claudia normally had for breakfast?
• What dark implement is under the dinner plate, bowl and tea plate? You can see the corner of the item on the bottom left hand side of the picture.

To my eye the sink contents look more like the dishes from a pasta meal for two than anything to do with breakfast. The white bits - maybe her guest didn’t like (chopped) garlic. The dark implement on the left is the wooden handle of what appears to be a thin-bladed filleting knife, with grey rivet visible. As to what she normally had for breakfast - if she was leaving the house at around 5.30am she may well just have downed a coffee at home and eaten something off the breakfast line when she got to work.

 

[shadwell]

Again this is a fresh pair of eyes, I hadn’t viewed this footage previously. Sorry if this has been discussed....
is the white Astra van actually involved? It appears too far from 46.
There appears to be two vehicles parked closely together on the kerb outside 46, odd on a road of this layout as it would encourage people to park on the opposite side. Have these images been cleaned up?
There is a white van parked on the opposite side of the road closer to HP. The oncoming cars pull around it so it is clearly stopped with the headlights on.


After seeing this I would certainly be inclined to believe this was after the event. However, lack of a crime scene or evidence at 46. Did she get in one of the cars willingly or was escorted?
Did her phone get left behind? Would they have gone to the level of planning to take the rucksack?
However well planned , I cannot see that a potential criminal would review bus routes in advance to make sure they weren’t captured on camera.

What’s the thinking on those vehicles? Is that the Ford Ranger pickup facing the right way and what looks like it could be a black taxi* facing it (against the traffic) behind - both parked half on the pavement?

* it initially looks too small but appears to have a rounded roof at the back and slightly protruding rear wing that bring the old style black taxis to mind.

 

[UKjester]

Just coming back to the bus CCTV. I read that the Ford ranger departed after 30 minutes. Was there any footage of this? I wondered if the vehicle that was parked in front of it was still there?
It is difficult to make much of that car out but it does it seem reddy brown on the rear left?

 

[UKjester]

What’s the thinking on those vehicles? Is that the Ford Ranger pickup facing the right way and what looks like it could be a black taxi* facing it (against the traffic) behind - both parked half on the pavement?

* it initially looks too small but appears to have a rounded roof at the back and slightly protruding rear wing that bring the old style black taxis to mind.

My thinking is that the mystery car is pointing in the direction of traffic. By the position of what I deem to be the Reg plate and vehicle curves it could be something like a dark red Mk1 Audi TT.


would love to know if any of the forum members have looked at this more
closely. Did the mystery car leave at a similar time to the ford ranger ?

why did NYP not show the other vehicle in the stills? They have all been provided with it cropped so the image doesn’t show beyond the bonnet of the ranger

 

[Miss Elizabeth]

Hello all,

I was very interested in this case when Claudia first went missing, fell off for a while and the death of PL has me back in the thick of it.

I've spent the last 3 days reading most of the previous threads. Haven't got a thing done in real life, but the different theories posited have been very well thought out and plausible for the most part.

I didn't see very much about finances in the previous threads. I want to preface what I say here with the following: I do not live in the UK. The information I'm quoting is from various internet sites and could bear absolutely no resemblance to real life at the time of the disappearance. I use the information for reference and would appreciate it if people in the area could correct any misinformation.

So, having said all that, I'm really curious about how Claudia funded what seemed to be a very active social/travel life. I use the following numbers for my calculations:

Chef Salary: ₤24,000 (30k less 6k for taxes)
House price: ₤180,000

Salary per week: ₤460 (based on above)
Mortgage payment: ₤200 per week (based on ₤800 per month approximately)
Utilities for approx. 800sf home per week: ₤40 (based on ₤160 approximately)
A pint of cider: ₤2.50
A pub meal: ₤10
A taxi to Acombe: ₤10
A taxi to downtown area: ₤5
Groceries per week: ₤20
Misc: ₤20
Petrol per week: ₤8
Car Insurance: ₤10
Travel: ₤25
Pet costs: ₤25

Assumptions:

• Mortgage payment: based on a loan of ₤130,000 at 5% interest. I've assumed a ₤50,000 down payment as Claudia had been working for quite a long while prior to this purchase.
• Utilities: square footage based on the size of the house on the corner currently for sale as I couldn't find a floorplan for Claudia's home.
• Cider: Claudia visited the NH 4 or 5 times a week until just before she disappeared. Is it reasonable to assume an average of 3 pints of cider per visit? Assumption is 12 pints per week. I think this is very conservative based on friend comments about her sometimes having a few too many.
• Meals: I assume she would eat mostly at work, but on nights she was at the NH would she get a pub meal? Assumption is 3 pub meals a week.
• Taxi's: Assumption is 2 taxi rides per week but possibly shared with others, so will peg this at ₤10 per week.
• Groceries: I'm assuming she wouldn't spend much on groceries as she would eat at work for the most part?
• Misc: amount is a random number. Intended to amortize for things like clothing over the year.
• Petrol: I can't imagine she'd use much petrol when her car was running, so I assume about 2 litres per week. Is that reasonable considering how close work was and her social life is for the most part close to home?
• Car Insurance: Is this a reasonable amount to assume?
• Travel: Is it reasonable to assume travel twice a year for a week to somewhere like Cyprus or Greece? Is ₤600 per trip (flights, food accommodation) reasonable to assume? If so ₤1200 amortized over the year is approx. ₤25 per week
• Pet costs: feed and agistment. Cobweb died just before Claudia went missing, so I think this is a valid expense to put in.

Based on these (very broad) assumptions, her living costs amount to about ₤420 per week, leaving only ₤40 per week for savings or servicing any other debt she may have. This doesn't seem like a lot for savings and unexpected expenses like dropping a new engine in a car. I'm also assuming she didn't have a car payment simply because rather than get a new vehicle she was repairing hers. I think it reasonable to assume her parents may have helped her buy her house, or be helping with expenses?

So, where am I going with this? We have seen a lot of information on the boards about nefarious activities under surveillance at the NH and the possible involvement of patrons, along with speculation about Claudia being mixed up with this, inadvertently or not. But could it be that Claudia was knowingly involved? I don't think she had much money by the end of the week once her expenses were paid. She had access to potentially many "customers" at her place of work and in the student housing behind her home. Could it be that things "spiralled out of control" in some way? Arguments about money and threats to expose the big players?

I hasten to add that I'm merely positing a theory here, I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

If you've taken the time to read to the end, thank you, and please feel free to correct any numbers you feel aren't reasonable to assume. Or add others you think should be included.

***Edited to add that Claudia did not seem to be the type of person to threaten anyone based on descriptions provided by her friends. My implication here is that she may have been in a situation she was unable to get out of.

~E

 

[curiosity2]

Hello all,

I was very interested in this case when Claudia first went missing, fell off for a while and the death of PL has me back in the thick of it.

I've spent the last 3 days reading most of the previous threads. Haven't got a thing done in real life, but the different theories posited have been very well thought out and plausible for the most part.

I didn't see very much about finances in the previous threads. I want to preface what I say here with the following: I do not live in the UK. The information I'm quoting is from various internet sites and could bear absolutely no resemblance to real life at the time of the disappearance. I use the information for reference and would appreciate it if people in the area could correct any misinformation.

So, having said all that, I'm really curious about how Claudia funded what seemed to be a very active social/travel life. I use the following numbers for my calculations:

Chef Salary: ₤24,000 (30k less 6k for taxes)
House price: ₤180,000

Salary per week: ₤460 (based on above)
Mortgage payment: ₤200 per week (based on ₤800 per month approximately)
Utilities for approx. 800sf home per week: ₤40 (based on ₤160 approximately)
A pint of cider: ₤2.50
A pub meal: ₤10
A taxi to Acombe: ₤10
A taxi to downtown area: ₤5
Groceries per week: ₤20
Misc: ₤20
Petrol per week: ₤8
Car Insurance: ₤10
Travel: ₤25
Pet costs: ₤25

Assumptions:

• Mortgage payment: based on a loan of ₤130,000 at 5% interest. I've assumed a ₤50,000 down payment as Claudia had been working for quite a long while prior to this purchase.
• Utilities: square footage based on the size of the house on the corner currently for sale as I couldn't find a floorplan for Claudia's home.
• Cider: Claudia visited the NH 4 or 5 times a week until just before she disappeared. Is it reasonable to assume an average of 3 pints of cider per visit? Assumption is 12 pints per week. I think this is very conservative based on friend comments about her sometimes having a few too many.
• Meals: I assume she would eat mostly at work, but on nights she was at the NH would she get a pub meal? Assumption is 3 pub meals a week.
• Taxi's: Assumption is 2 taxi rides per week but possibly shared with others, so will peg this at ₤10 per week.
• Groceries: I'm assuming she wouldn't spend much on groceries as she would eat at work for the most part?
• Misc: amount is a random number. Intended to amortize for things like clothing over the year.
• Petrol: I can't imagine she'd use much petrol when her car was running, so I assume about 2 litres per week. Is that reasonable considering how close work was and her social life is for the most part close to home?
• Car Insurance: Is this a reasonable amount to assume?
• Travel: Is it reasonable to assume travel twice a year for a week to somewhere like Cyprus or Greece? Is ₤600 per trip (flights, food accommodation) reasonable to assume? If so ₤1200 amortized over the year is approx. ₤25 per week
• Pet costs: feed and agistment. Cobweb died just before Claudia went missing, so I think this is a valid expense to put in.

Based on these (very broad) assumptions, her living costs amount to about ₤420 per week, leaving only ₤40 per week for savings or servicing any other debt she may have. This doesn't seem like a lot for savings and unexpected expenses like dropping a new engine in a car. I'm also assuming she didn't have a car payment simply because rather than get a new vehicle she was repairing hers. I think it reasonable to assume her parents may have helped her buy her house, or be helping with expenses?

So, where am I going with this? We have seen a lot of information on the boards about nefarious activities under surveillance at the NH and the possible involvement of patrons, along with speculation about Claudia being mixed up with this, inadvertently or not. But could it be that Claudia was knowingly involved? I don't think she had much money by the end of the week once her expenses were paid. She had access to potentially many "customers" at her place of work and in the student housing behind her home. Could it be that things "spiralled out of control" in some way? Arguments about money and threats to expose the big players?

I hasten to add that I'm merely positing a theory here, I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

If you've taken the time to read to the end, thank you, and please feel free to correct any numbers you feel aren't reasonable to assume. Or add others you think should be included.

***Edited to add that Claudia did not seem to be the type of person to threaten anyone based on descriptions provided by her friends. My implication here is that she may have been in a situation she was unable to get out of.

~E

Hello all,

I was very interested in this case when Claudia first went missing, fell off for a while and the death of PL has me back in the thick of it.

I've spent the last 3 days reading most of the previous threads. Haven't got a thing done in real life, but the different theories posited have been very well thought out and plausible for the most part.

I didn't see very much about finances in the previous threads. I want to preface what I say here with the following: I do not live in the UK. The information I'm quoting is from various internet sites and could bear absolutely no resemblance to real life at the time of the disappearance. I use the information for reference and would appreciate it if people in the area could correct any misinformation.

So, having said all that, I'm really curious about how Claudia funded what seemed to be a very active social/travel life. I use the following numbers for my calculations:

Chef Salary: ₤24,000 (30k less 6k for taxes)
House price: ₤180,000

Salary per week: ₤460 (based on above)
Mortgage payment: ₤200 per week (based on ₤800 per month approximately)
Utilities for approx. 800sf home per week: ₤40 (based on ₤160 approximately)
A pint of cider: ₤2.50
A pub meal: ₤10
A taxi to Acombe: ₤10
A taxi to downtown area: ₤5
Groceries per week: ₤20
Misc: ₤20
Petrol per week: ₤8
Car Insurance: ₤10
Travel: ₤25
Pet costs: ₤25

Assumptions:

• Mortgage payment: based on a loan of ₤130,000 at 5% interest. I've assumed a ₤50,000 down payment as Claudia had been working for quite a long while prior to this purchase.
• Utilities: square footage based on the size of the house on the corner currently for sale as I couldn't find a floorplan for Claudia's home.
• Cider: Claudia visited the NH 4 or 5 times a week until just before she disappeared. Is it reasonable to assume an average of 3 pints of cider per visit? Assumption is 12 pints per week. I think this is very conservative based on friend comments about her sometimes having a few too many.
• Meals: I assume she would eat mostly at work, but on nights she was at the NH would she get a pub meal? Assumption is 3 pub meals a week.
• Taxi's: Assumption is 2 taxi rides per week but possibly shared with others, so will peg this at ₤10 per week.
• Groceries: I'm assuming she wouldn't spend much on groceries as she would eat at work for the most part?
• Misc: amount is a random number. Intended to amortize for things like clothing over the year.
• Petrol: I can't imagine she'd use much petrol when her car was running, so I assume about 2 litres per week. Is that reasonable considering how close work was and her social life is for the most part close to home?
• Car Insurance: Is this a reasonable amount to assume?
• Travel: Is it reasonable to assume travel twice a year for a week to somewhere like Cyprus or Greece? Is ₤600 per trip (flights, food accommodation) reasonable to assume? If so ₤1200 amortized over the year is approx. ₤25 per week
• Pet costs: feed and agistment. Cobweb died just before Claudia went missing, so I think this is a valid expense to put in.

Based on these (very broad) assumptions, her living costs amount to about ₤420 per week, leaving only ₤40 per week for savings or servicing any other debt she may have. This doesn't seem like a lot for savings and unexpected expenses like dropping a new engine in a car. I'm also assuming she didn't have a car payment simply because rather than get a new vehicle she was repairing hers. I think it reasonable to assume her parents may have helped her buy her house, or be helping with expenses?

So, where am I going with this? We have seen a lot of information on the boards about nefarious activities under surveillance at the NH and the possible involvement of patrons, along with speculation about Claudia being mixed up with this, inadvertently or not. But could it be that Claudia was knowingly involved? I don't think she had much money by the end of the week once her expenses were paid. She had access to potentially many "customers" at her place of work and in the student housing behind her home. Could it be that things "spiralled out of control" in some way? Arguments about money and threats to expose the big players?

I hasten to add that I'm merely positing a theory here, I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

If you've taken the time to read to the end, thank you, and please feel free to correct any numbers you feel aren't reasonable to assume. Or add others you think should be included.

***Edited to add that Claudia did not seem to be the type of person to threaten anyone based on descriptions provided by her friends. My implication here is that she may have been in a situation she was unable to get out of.

~E

I very much doubt that her salary would have been in the region of £30,000 in 2009 especially as she was basically a chef/cook in a university canteen and not in a fancy restaurant

 

[Miss Elizabeth]

I very much doubt that her salary would have been in the region of £30,000 in 2009 especially as she was basically a chef/cook in a university canteen and not in a fancy restaurant

Thanks Curiosity2. What would you think more reasonable?

~E

 

[Pinkizzy]

What’s the thinking on those vehicles? Is that the Ford Ranger pickup facing the right way and what looks like it could be a black taxi* facing it (against the traffic) behind - both parked half on the pavement?

* it initially looks too small but appears to have a rounded roof at the back and slightly protruding rear wing that bring the old style black taxis to mind.

There was a social event (football match on TV) at the Nags Head that night, the extra parked cars may be linked with that.

 

[Pinkizzy]

Just wondering about her mobile phone movements. From the reports I naively thought the reports suggested there was a single mast Covering the east of York. From google street view there is a mast at the top of east parade in 2008. A quick search shows that there were as many as 45 masts in operation in central York in 2002 with a further 37 masts further afield.

I am no expert but Surely there must have been triangulation in 2009 to locate phones?
This gives me the theory that perhaps her phone didn’t leave her house and did someone revisit around midday on the 19th to turn the phone off?
Tracking of mobile phone movements must have been possible in Heworth and Acomb to give better location tracking?

am I off the mark again or are the NYP not disclosing something?

I think there's a mast on Melrosegate too.

 

[curiosity2]

Thanks Curiosity2. What would you think more reasonable?

~E

Not sure what the going rate would have been, but those sort of jobs have never been considered to be well paid