UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #14

[Blonderabbit]

What’s the thinking on those vehicles? Is that the Ford Ranger pickup facing the right way and what looks like it could be a black taxi* facing it (against the traffic) behind - both parked half on the pavement?

* it initially looks too small but appears to have a rounded roof at the back and slightly protruding rear wing that bring the old style black taxis to mind.

I thought it may of been a new style beetle - funnily enough known for being a hairdressers car (hair dye) - don’t start putting two and two. As it’s a big jump.

 

[Popejohn3]

Hello all,

I was very interested in this case when Claudia first went missing, fell off for a while and the death of PL has me back in the thick of it.

I've spent the last 3 days reading most of the previous threads. Haven't got a thing done in real life, but the different theories posited have been very well thought out and plausible for the most part.

I didn't see very much about finances in the previous threads. I want to preface what I say here with the following: I do not live in the UK. The information I'm quoting is from various internet sites and could bear absolutely no resemblance to real life at the time of the disappearance. I use the information for reference and would appreciate it if people in the area could correct any misinformation.

So, having said all that, I'm really curious about how Claudia funded what seemed to be a very active social/travel life. I use the following numbers for my calculations:

Chef Salary: ₤24,000 (30k less 6k for taxes)
House price: ₤180,000

Salary per week: ₤460 (based on above)
Mortgage payment: ₤200 per week (based on ₤800 per month approximately)
Utilities for approx. 800sf home per week: ₤40 (based on ₤160 approximately)
A pint of cider: ₤2.50
A pub meal: ₤10
A taxi to Acombe: ₤10
A taxi to downtown area: ₤5
Groceries per week: ₤20
Misc: ₤20
Petrol per week: ₤8
Car Insurance: ₤10
Travel: ₤25
Pet costs: ₤25

Assumptions:

• Mortgage payment: based on a loan of ₤130,000 at 5% interest. I've assumed a ₤50,000 down payment as Claudia had been working for quite a long while prior to this purchase.
• Utilities: square footage based on the size of the house on the corner currently for sale as I couldn't find a floorplan for Claudia's home.
• Cider: Claudia visited the NH 4 or 5 times a week until just before she disappeared. Is it reasonable to assume an average of 3 pints of cider per visit? Assumption is 12 pints per week. I think this is very conservative based on friend comments about her sometimes having a few too many.
• Meals: I assume she would eat mostly at work, but on nights she was at the NH would she get a pub meal? Assumption is 3 pub meals a week.
• Taxi's: Assumption is 2 taxi rides per week but possibly shared with others, so will peg this at ₤10 per week.
• Groceries: I'm assuming she wouldn't spend much on groceries as she would eat at work for the most part?
• Misc: amount is a random number. Intended to amortize for things like clothing over the year.
• Petrol: I can't imagine she'd use much petrol when her car was running, so I assume about 2 litres per week. Is that reasonable considering how close work was and her social life is for the most part close to home?
• Car Insurance: Is this a reasonable amount to assume?
• Travel: Is it reasonable to assume travel twice a year for a week to somewhere like Cyprus or Greece? Is ₤600 per trip (flights, food accommodation) reasonable to assume? If so ₤1200 amortized over the year is approx. ₤25 per week
• Pet costs: feed and agistment. Cobweb died just before Claudia went missing, so I think this is a valid expense to put in.

Based on these (very broad) assumptions, her living costs amount to about ₤420 per week, leaving only ₤40 per week for savings or servicing any other debt she may have. This doesn't seem like a lot for savings and unexpected expenses like dropping a new engine in a car. I'm also assuming she didn't have a car payment simply because rather than get a new vehicle she was repairing hers. I think it reasonable to assume her parents may have helped her buy her house, or be helping with expenses?

So, where am I going with this? We have seen a lot of information on the boards about nefarious activities under surveillance at the NH and the possible involvement of patrons, along with speculation about Claudia being mixed up with this, inadvertently or not. But could it be that Claudia was knowingly involved? I don't think she had much money by the end of the week once her expenses were paid. She had access to potentially many "customers" at her place of work and in the student housing behind her home. Could it be that things "spiralled out of control" in some way? Arguments about money and threats to expose the big players?

I hasten to add that I'm merely positing a theory here, I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

If you've taken the time to read to the end, thank you, and please feel free to correct any numbers you feel aren't reasonable to assume. Or add others you think should be included.

***Edited to add that Claudia did not seem to be the type of person to threaten anyone based on descriptions provided by her friends. My implication here is that she may have been in a situation she was unable to get out of.

~E

People seem to forget she was in that house for around 2.5 years only plus had a lodger for a whole year ! That would not be for free .
And I believe she sold her first house before she bought no 46.
If something untoward was going on with her ‘customers’ at the uni one of them would have told the police for sure and they would have bared it in mind so ... move on !

 

[Popejohn3]

Hello all,

I was very interested in this case when Claudia first went missing, fell off for a while and the death of PL has me back in the thick of it.

I've spent the last 3 days reading most of the previous threads. Haven't got a thing done in real life, but the different theories posited have been very well thought out and plausible for the most part.

I didn't see very much about finances in the previous threads. I want to preface what I say here with the following: I do not live in the UK. The information I'm quoting is from various internet sites and could bear absolutely no resemblance to real life at the time of the disappearance. I use the information for reference and would appreciate it if people in the area could correct any misinformation.

So, having said all that, I'm really curious about how Claudia funded what seemed to be a very active social/travel life. I use the following numbers for my calculations:

Chef Salary: ₤24,000 (30k less 6k for taxes)
House price: ₤180,000

Salary per week: ₤460 (based on above)
Mortgage payment: ₤200 per week (based on ₤800 per month approximately)
Utilities for approx. 800sf home per week: ₤40 (based on ₤160 approximately)
A pint of cider: ₤2.50
A pub meal: ₤10
A taxi to Acombe: ₤10
A taxi to downtown area: ₤5
Groceries per week: ₤20
Misc: ₤20
Petrol per week: ₤8
Car Insurance: ₤10
Travel: ₤25
Pet costs: ₤25

Assumptions:

• Mortgage payment: based on a loan of ₤130,000 at 5% interest. I've assumed a ₤50,000 down payment as Claudia had been working for quite a long while prior to this purchase.
• Utilities: square footage based on the size of the house on the corner currently for sale as I couldn't find a floorplan for Claudia's home.
• Cider: Claudia visited the NH 4 or 5 times a week until just before she disappeared. Is it reasonable to assume an average of 3 pints of cider per visit? Assumption is 12 pints per week. I think this is very conservative based on friend comments about her sometimes having a few too many.
• Meals: I assume she would eat mostly at work, but on nights she was at the NH would she get a pub meal? Assumption is 3 pub meals a week.
• Taxi's: Assumption is 2 taxi rides per week but possibly shared with others, so will peg this at ₤10 per week.
• Groceries: I'm assuming she wouldn't spend much on groceries as she would eat at work for the most part?
• Misc: amount is a random number. Intended to amortize for things like clothing over the year.
• Petrol: I can't imagine she'd use much petrol when her car was running, so I assume about 2 litres per week. Is that reasonable considering how close work was and her social life is for the most part close to home?
• Car Insurance: Is this a reasonable amount to assume?
• Travel: Is it reasonable to assume travel twice a year for a week to somewhere like Cyprus or Greece? Is ₤600 per trip (flights, food accommodation) reasonable to assume? If so ₤1200 amortized over the year is approx. ₤25 per week
• Pet costs: feed and agistment. Cobweb died just before Claudia went missing, so I think this is a valid expense to put in.

Based on these (very broad) assumptions, her living costs amount to about ₤420 per week, leaving only ₤40 per week for savings or servicing any other debt she may have. This doesn't seem like a lot for savings and unexpected expenses like dropping a new engine in a car. I'm also assuming she didn't have a car payment simply because rather than get a new vehicle she was repairing hers. I think it reasonable to assume her parents may have helped her buy her house, or be helping with expenses?

So, where am I going with this? We have seen a lot of information on the boards about nefarious activities under surveillance at the NH and the possible involvement of patrons, along with speculation about Claudia being mixed up with this, inadvertently or not. But could it be that Claudia was knowingly involved? I don't think she had much money by the end of the week once her expenses were paid. She had access to potentially many "customers" at her place of work and in the student housing behind her home. Could it be that things "spiralled out of control" in some way? Arguments about money and threats to expose the big players?

I hasten to add that I'm merely positing a theory here, I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

If you've taken the time to read to the end, thank you, and please feel free to correct any numbers you feel aren't reasonable to assume. Or add others you think should be included.

***Edited to add that Claudia did not seem to be the type of person to threaten anyone based on descriptions provided by her friends. My implication here is that she may have been in a situation she was unable to get out of.

~E

People seem to forget she was in that house for around 2.5 years only plus had a lodger for a whole year ! That would not be for free .
And I believe she sold her first house before she bought no 46.
If something untoward was going on with her ‘customers’ at the uni one of them would have told the police for sure and they would have bared it in mind so ... move on !

 

[Popejohn3]

I thought it may of been a new style beetle - funnily enough known for being a hairdressers car (hair dye) - don’t start putting two and two. As it’s a big jump.

It’s not that big a jump !

 

[keep-it-real]

My thinking is that the mystery car is pointing in the direction of traffic. By the position of what I deem to be the Reg plate and vehicle curves it could be something like a dark red Mk1 Audi TT.
View attachment 285726

would love to know if any of the forum members have looked at this more
closely. Did the mystery car leave at a similar time to the ford ranger ?

why did NYP not show the other vehicle in the stills? They have all been provided with it cropped so the image doesn’t show beyond the bonnet of the ranger

Or possibly

Google Maps

Google Maps

 

[UKjester]

Or possibly

Google Maps

Google Maps[

the position of the rear reg plate sits too high for it to be a beetle IMO. That angle and position drew me to the TT. It could be something like an estate car where the plate sits higher up on the tailgate but the car seems shorter and more curvy.

 

[Blonderabbit]

What’s the thinking on those vehicles? Is that the Ford Ranger pickup facing the right way and what looks like it could be a black taxi* facing it (against the traffic) behind - both parked half on the pavement?

* it initially looks too small but appears to have a rounded roof at the back and slightly protruding rear wing that bring the old style black taxis to mind.

I thought it may of been a new style beetle - funnily enough known for being a hairdressers car (hair dye) - don’t start putting two and two. As it’s a big jump.

I very much doubt that her salary would have been in the region of £30,000 in 2009 especially as she was basically a chef/cook in a university canteen and not in a fancy restaurant

I think when you do most of the back reading to the case, you have exhausted all lines of new information, you start to work with what you’ve collected. Initially I guess there will be aspects which do not add up. I to have been down the financial route - not in as much detail but “in general” I think you are off the mark with your calculations and Claudia could live on much less, however there remains a question mark. What I do know is the police openly reveal research into this line of enquiry and it doesn’t seem to be questionable in their remarks anywhere. Another way of looking at the same aspect - is evidence of immoral earnings - prostitution? No Drugs No - the police have not said either of these lines of enquiry are of interest to them. I guess that isn’t to say a P.O.I. May of been involved in such. Questions questions questions, more questions than answers!

the position of the rear reg plate sits too high for it to be a beetle IMO. That angle and position drew me to the TT. It could be something like an estate car where the plate sits higher up on the tailgate but the car seems shorter and more curvy.

Yes I do agree - it is of that design - the police must have it arriving or leaving on other cctv.

 

[cheddarcat]

Hello all,

I was very interested in this case when Claudia first went missing, fell off for a while and the death of PL has me back in the thick of it.

I've spent the last 3 days reading most of the previous threads. Haven't got a thing done in real life, but the different theories posited have been very well thought out and plausible for the most part.

I didn't see very much about finances in the previous threads. I want to preface what I say here with the following: I do not live in the UK. The information I'm quoting is from various internet sites and could bear absolutely no resemblance to real life at the time of the disappearance. I use the information for reference and would appreciate it if people in the area could correct any misinformation.

So, having said all that, I'm really curious about how Claudia funded what seemed to be a very active social/travel life. I use the following numbers for my calculations:

Chef Salary: ₤24,000 (30k less 6k for taxes)
House price: ₤180,000

Salary per week: ₤460 (based on above)
Mortgage payment: ₤200 per week (based on ₤800 per month approximately)
Utilities for approx. 800sf home per week: ₤40 (based on ₤160 approximately)
A pint of cider: ₤2.50
A pub meal: ₤10
A taxi to Acombe: ₤10
A taxi to downtown area: ₤5
Groceries per week: ₤20
Misc: ₤20
Petrol per week: ₤8
Car Insurance: ₤10
Travel: ₤25
Pet costs: ₤25

Assumptions:

• Mortgage payment: based on a loan of ₤130,000 at 5% interest. I've assumed a ₤50,000 down payment as Claudia had been working for quite a long while prior to this purchase.
• Utilities: square footage based on the size of the house on the corner currently for sale as I couldn't find a floorplan for Claudia's home.
• Cider: Claudia visited the NH 4 or 5 times a week until just before she disappeared. Is it reasonable to assume an average of 3 pints of cider per visit? Assumption is 12 pints per week. I think this is very conservative based on friend comments about her sometimes having a few too many.
• Meals: I assume she would eat mostly at work, but on nights she was at the NH would she get a pub meal? Assumption is 3 pub meals a week.
• Taxi's: Assumption is 2 taxi rides per week but possibly shared with others, so will peg this at ₤10 per week.
• Groceries: I'm assuming she wouldn't spend much on groceries as she would eat at work for the most part?
• Misc: amount is a random number. Intended to amortize for things like clothing over the year.
• Petrol: I can't imagine she'd use much petrol when her car was running, so I assume about 2 litres per week. Is that reasonable considering how close work was and her social life is for the most part close to home?
• Car Insurance: Is this a reasonable amount to assume?
• Travel: Is it reasonable to assume travel twice a year for a week to somewhere like Cyprus or Greece? Is ₤600 per trip (flights, food accommodation) reasonable to assume? If so ₤1200 amortized over the year is approx. ₤25 per week
• Pet costs: feed and agistment. Cobweb died just before Claudia went missing, so I think this is a valid expense to put in.

Based on these (very broad) assumptions, her living costs amount to about ₤420 per week, leaving only ₤40 per week for savings or servicing any other debt she may have. This doesn't seem like a lot for savings and unexpected expenses like dropping a new engine in a car. I'm also assuming she didn't have a car payment simply because rather than get a new vehicle she was repairing hers. I think it reasonable to assume her parents may have helped her buy her house, or be helping with expenses?

So, where am I going with this? We have seen a lot of information on the boards about nefarious activities under surveillance at the NH and the possible involvement of patrons, along with speculation about Claudia being mixed up with this, inadvertently or not. But could it be that Claudia was knowingly involved? I don't think she had much money by the end of the week once her expenses were paid. She had access to potentially many "customers" at her place of work and in the student housing behind her home. Could it be that things "spiralled out of control" in some way? Arguments about money and threats to expose the big players?

I hasten to add that I'm merely positing a theory here, I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

If you've taken the time to read to the end, thank you, and please feel free to correct any numbers you feel aren't reasonable to assume. Or add others you think should be included.

***Edited to add that Claudia did not seem to be the type of person to threaten anyone based on descriptions provided by her friends. My implication here is that she may have been in a situation she was unable to get out of.

~E

I had thought about this too as a chef in a uni canteen wouldn't have been paid a lot, especially back in 2009. I really don't think she was stealing from customers at the uni. I have heard that her dad helped her out financially quite a bit. It had also crossed my mind that perhaps the men she was seeing might have helped pay for things.

Friends in the media portrayed her as a really nice person, but after the conversation I had with my friend who had driven her to the Acomb area, I was surprised that his impression of her wasn't good at all.

Edit: spelling

 

[Blonderabbit]

The Stray
Back to the Rucksack - I have just been looking at this link on the police microsite - about the possible sighting of a rucksack matching Claudias rucksack at 1pm on the 19th March 2009.
If you take this as her rucksack and she took it there it must mean she stayed overnight elsewhere and came to work on a different route, possibly in a car, maybe walked. Take a look on google earth as it is now. Look at where the coop is, fulford police station, the shell garage and if you fly upwards you can see where Heworth is. Would she be there coming from Heworth?
Claudia's blue and grey Karrimor rucksack

 

[Blonderabbit]

I had thought about this too as a chef in a uni canteen wouldn't have been paid a lot, especially back in 2009. I really don't think she was stealing from customers at the uni. I have heard that her dad helped her out financially quite a bit. It had also crossed my mind that perhaps the men she was seeing might have helped pay for things.

Friends in the media portrayed her as a really nice person, but after the conversation I had with my friend who had driven her to the Acomb area, I was surprised that his impression of her wasn't good at all.

Edit: spelling

Wasn’t good in what way? Her friends say she was caring, publicly nobody has had a bad word to say about her even BH on the receiving end of her flirtatious behaviour ending her marriage to her childhood sweetheart.

 

[Blonderabbit]

the position of the rear reg plate sits too high for it to be a beetle IMO. That angle and position drew me to the TT. It could be something like an estate car where the plate sits higher up on the tailgate but the car seems shorter and more curvy.

Could it be a black mark 2 focus?

 

[cheddarcat]

The Stray
Back to the Rucksack - I have just been looking at this link on the police microsite - about the possible sighting of a rucksack matching Claudias rucksack at 1pm on the 19th March 2009.
If you take this as her rucksack and she took it there it must mean she stayed overnight elsewhere and came to work on a different route, possibly in a car, maybe walked. Take a look on google earth as it is now. Look at where the coop is, fulford police station, the shell garage and if you fly upwards you can see where Heworth is. Would she be there coming from Heworth?
Claudia's blue and grey Karrimor rucksack

I have thought about this, but if her toothbrush was still in the kitchen, why didn't she take it with her if she was staying over night somewhere?

 

[Miss Elizabeth]

I had thought about this too as a chef in a uni canteen wouldn't have been paid a lot, especially back in 2009. I really don't think she was stealing from customers at the uni. I have heard that her dad helped her out financially quite a bit. It had also crossed my mind that perhaps the men she was seeing might have helped pay for things.

Friends in the media portrayed her as a really nice person, but after the conversation I had with my friend who had driven her to the Acomb area, I was surprised that his impression of her wasn't good at all.

Edit: spelling

I didn't mean to imply she was stealing from anyone. My line of thought was the possibility she was selling things to the students, in light of the surveillance being conducted at the NH. I found it interesting that in the footage/pictures of the early morning activities on the 19th, there seemed to be a lot of people lurking around the area. Seemed an odd time for so many to be out and about and the theory put forward that perhaps a drug deal had gone wrong led me to my hypothesis.

Thanks for your response.

~E

 

[cheddarcat]

Wasn’t good in what way? Her friends say she was caring, publicly nobody has had a bad word to say about her even BH on the receiving end of her flirtatious behaviour ending her marriage to her childhood sweetheart.

When I mentioned her and asked about it he said "urgh, horrible woman". I asked why he thought that and he said she had spat in his face and accused him of taking her the longer route instead of the route she had requested. I guess that fits in with reports of her being being little 'messy' when drunk and saying the wrong thing or upsetting people

 

[cheddarcat]

I didn't mean to imply she was stealing from anyone. My line of thought was the possibility she was selling things to the students, in light of the surveillance being conducted at the NH. I found it interesting that in the footage/pictures of the early morning activities on the 19th, there seemed to be a lot of people lurking around the area. Seemed an odd time for so many to be out and about and the theory put forward that perhaps a drug deal had gone wrong led me to my hypothesis.

Thanks for your response.

~E

Oh I see what you mean, like passing on drugs or something?

 

[Miss Elizabeth]

I thought it may of been a new style beetle - funnily enough known for being a hairdressers car (hair dye) - don’t start putting two and two. As it’s a big jump.

I think when you do most of the back reading to the case, you have exhausted all lines of new information, you start to work with what you’ve collected. Initially I guess there will be aspects which do not add up. I to have been down the financial route - not in as much detail but “in general” I think you are off the mark with your calculations and Claudia could live on much less, however there remains a question mark. What I do know is the police openly reveal research into this line of enquiry and it doesn’t seem to be questionable in their remarks anywhere. Another way of looking at the same aspect - is evidence of immoral earnings - prostitution? No Drugs No - the police have not said either of these lines of enquiry are of interest to them. I guess that isn’t to say a P.O.I. May of been involved in such. Questions questions questions, more questions than answers!

Thanks Blonderabbit for your input. I did do a lot of research into the costs of things in the York area in 2009, but of course real life is usually significantly different than what the Google Machine provides. As I said, I do not live in the UK and I don't know how reliable things like cost of living indices are.

I was not thinking of prostitution at all, I was thinking more along the lines of selling that which the NG was under surveillance for. I think I will edit my original post as I think my use of the work "customers" is implying something that I do not wish to infer.

~E

 

[UKjester]

It could be a number of vehicles in truth. The bits that stood out were the reg plate position and no visible rear reflectors on the bumper. Appeared to have a curved roof line and wings.
Wouldn’t it be lovely to have access to footage from all the cameras and really make sense of the events

 

[Miss Elizabeth]

Oh I see what you mean, like passing on drugs or something?

Yes, that's what I was thinking of.

 

[Miss Elizabeth]

Thanks Blonderabbit for your input. I did do a lot of research into the costs of things in the York area in 2009, but of course real life is usually significantly different than what the Google Machine provides. As I said, I do not live in the UK and I don't know how reliable things like cost of living indices are.

I was not thinking of prostitution at all, I was thinking more along the lines of selling that which the NG was under surveillance for. I think I will edit my original post as I think my use of the word "customers" is implying something that I do not wish to infer.

~E

 

[Blonderabbit]

It could be a number of vehicles in truth. The bits that stood out were the reg plate position and no visible rear reflectors on the bumper. Appeared to have a curved roof line and wings.
Wouldn’t it be lovely to have access to footage from all the cameras and really make sense of the events