Found Deceased CA - Philip Kreycik, 37, Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, 10 Jul 2021

[Andreee]

Since we don't have a complete timeline, can anyone answer what is the maximum amount of time that Philip could've been running/missing, in other words, how far max could he have gone?

 

[SomethingGoingonHere]

I am but I’m not. It could depend on how busy the department was that day. As the wife of a first responder, it’s not unusual for someone to follow up if there was a connection (eg maybe they had a friend/mutual acquaintance on the dept). Also (and this may have been mentioned before and I might have missed it) the wife could have called it in as a medical emergency originally. For instance, “my husband is running and I think he’s had a heat stroke and I can’t reach him but I know his location” will almost always being out the fire dept/paramedics which then in turn might bring out the police. It all depends on how it was called in.

li

True...and since the 911 call hasn't been released we don't know if it was described as a medical emergency or not. JMO.

 

[JMapes]

If I'm recalling correctly, he was purported to have run from the Moller Ranch staging area, passing the water tower/Moller Ranch bench, onward to some uncharted trails, with the hopes of eventually ending up in Pleasanton Ridge RP.

From the park maps, we all found out this route is not possible. As someone so 'analytical' and 'intelligent' as purported by those close to him, why on Earth didn't he, at the very least, check Google maps to see that these trails DO NOT link up, at any point!?! What made him think he could park where he did and end up where he told others,unless he never really intended on being there in the first place? (classic misdirection!)

You know what trails DO link up? The one from the Moller Ranch staging area to the Preserve Staging area, with only a 0.4 mile distance. (The Preserve area also has a small loop trail, which would be way more manageable in the short amount of time he had to complete his run.) Did he change his initial course and end up going North to the Preserve instead of South to Pleasanton Ridge?

If he did, did he use this short trail run to escape? He could have parked his car at Moller Ranch, made a quick run over to the Preserve trailhead parking lot, hopped in a different car, or a bike (he had more than enough time to stop here first and leave a bicycle at the staging area on his hour drive from Berkeley to Pleasanton, which only takes about 30 minutes).

I've driven Laurel Creek Dr., the road where the Preserve staging area is, plenty of times as a shortcut from Stoneridge Dr. to Dublin Canyon Rd. to Palomares Rd. in Castro Valley. Coming from Stoneridge Dr., you will reach the Preserve staging area before you drive through the actual neighborhood. There are no houses leading up to the staging area parking lot when traveling from Stoneridge/Foothill.

I'd wager you could enter this area completely undetected, park, hike, leave your car or bicycle for several hours at the trailhead and no one would bat an eyelash, especially when it's so hot, there are few other hikers/witnesses. Additionally, Laurel Creek Dr., the road the Preserve trailhead is on, connects to Dublin Canyon Rd, which is a very popular and beautiful rural biking route that takes you through rolling hills, farmland and vineyards.

I believe that whatever he did, it wasn't seen as unusual, and didn't stick out in any other trail user's mind, if anyone saw him at all.

All of this to ask -Did he have a bike with him when he dropped off the package in Oakland? Are there cameras entering The Preserve, or at the intersection of Foothill/Laurel Creek Dr. that may have spotted him coming in/out of the area? Is anyone looking into his call records and cell phone/car GPS to figure out where he was during a brief window of unaccounted for time? All MOO.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

All of this to ask -Did he have a bike with him when he dropped off the package in Oakland?

I have this question too.

 

[Periwinkl3]

He could have had many things with him, including a bike. I’d be curious to know if his wallet was full of his usual cards or not. A lot rides on what he had planned for that day.

 

[Deleted member 222031]

If I'm recalling correctly, he was purported to have run from the Moller Ranch staging area, passing the water tower/Moller Ranch bench, onward to some uncharted trails, with the hopes of eventually ending up in Pleasanton Ridge RP.

From the park maps, we all found out this route is not possible. As someone so 'analytical' and 'intelligent' as purported by those close to him, why on Earth didn't he, at the very least, check Google maps to see that these trails DO NOT link up, at any point!?! What made him think he could park where he did and end up where he told others,unless he never really intended on being there in the first place? (classic misdirection!)

You know what trails DO link up? The one from the Moller Ranch staging area to the Preserve Staging area, with only a 0.4 mile distance. (The Preserve area also has a small loop trail, which would be way more manageable in the short amount of time he had to complete his run.) Did he change his initial course and end up going North to the Preserve instead of South to Pleasanton Ridge?

If he did, did he use this short trail run to escape? He could have parked his car at Moller Ranch, made a quick run over to the Preserve trailhead parking lot, hopped in a different car, or a bike (he had more than enough time to stop here first and leave a bicycle at the staging area on his hour drive from Berkeley to Pleasanton, which only takes about 30 minutes).

I've driven Laurel Creek Dr., the road where the Preserve staging area is, plenty of times as a shortcut from Stoneridge Dr. to Dublin Canyon Rd. to Palomares Rd. in Castro Valley. Coming from Stoneridge Dr., you will reach the Preserve staging area before you drive through the actual neighborhood. There are no houses leading up to the staging area parking lot when traveling from Stoneridge/Foothill.

I'd wager you could enter this area completely undetected, park, hike, leave your car or bicycle for several hours at the trailhead and no one would bat an eyelash, especially when it's so hot, there are few other hikers/witnesses. Additionally, Laurel Creek Dr., the road the Preserve trailhead is on, connects to Dublin Canyon Rd, which is a very popular and beautiful rural biking route that takes you through rolling hills, farmland and vineyards.

I believe that whatever he did, it wasn't seen as unusual, and didn't stick out in any other trail user's mind, if anyone saw him at all.

All of this to ask -Did he have a bike with him when he dropped off the package in Oakland? Are there cameras entering The Preserve, or at the intersection of Foothill/Laurel Creek Dr. that may have spotted him coming in/out of the area? Is anyone looking into his call records and cell phone/car GPS to figure out where he was during a brief window of unaccounted for time? All MOO.

Attached are two maps showing his purported route in July 2021 compared to similar hike there in 2019. I found them on the group Facebook page.

It appears it is possible to get to Mariposa & Turtle Pond trails from the Moller Staging Area. Between the staging area/parking lot & official mapped trails in Pleasanton Ridge (PR) is undeveloped & private land but people do use it to access PR.

Maybe this is not the route he took (he's only been tracked to a water tower not far from where his car was parked), but it must line up with the Strava route found on his phone.

Just wanted you to see what I see. Feedback welcome.

All opinions/recollections mine only.

 

[Normancita]

What if we try this….

How about for argument’s sake, we conclude that he’s not in the park.

What happened to him?

 

[Vacajoe]

Are there cameras entering The Preserve, or at the intersection of Foothill/Laurel Creek Dr. that may have spotted him coming in/out of the area?

There are traffic cameras at the intersection of Foothill/Laurel Creek/Stoneridge - the streets that lead to both the Preserve Staging area as well as the Miller Ranch one. No idea if those are simply monitored live for traffic flow or actually have recorders attached.

 

[MichelleAntonia]

What if we try this….

How about for argument’s sake, we conclude that he’s not in the park.

What happened to him?

he must have left, likely not on foot IMO. That means on a bike (new theory that I never thought of), or in someone else’s car. But without prior planning? Without anyone seeing him? And why? Those are the two biggest questions when it comes to this scenario, and nothing in the evidence even suggests any answers.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

What if we try this….

How about for argument’s sake, we conclude that he’s not in the park.

What happened to him?

Brainstorming:

One possibility -- as he ran along the trails, if there are other places where the trail is near an access point/parking area or even just parallels near a road, he might have encountered someone who forced him away. (but why?)

Another possibility is that he never made it to the trail in the first place, encountered foul play earlier by someone who then parked PK's car at the trailhead to create a false idea he was in the park -- (to which I then ask: although we know he had these routes in his Strava from 2019, did he actually tell anyone that's where he was planning to run that morning?)

All just speculative ideas in response to your question. I don't know what I think actually happened to him.

 

[Deleted member 222031]

What if we try this….

How about for argument’s sake, we conclude that he’s not in the park.

What happened to him?

Personally, I think he was abducted before, during or after his run. They need to aggressively go after camera footage and get a PI on the case, IMO. Because few people were in the park at that time and the one who talked to a ranger has apparently not reached out per the AMA, something is amiss. The amazing effort in this search looks thorough to me. I am sad to have to reach this conclusion. Such a tragedy, especially if he is no longer alive.

 

[Vacajoe]

So I walked the Miller Ranch and Preserve trails today. Here’s some observations:

I’m much older and way less fit than Philip plus it was warm today, but I did not find it so challenging that I believe he suffered from heat exhaustion in what was a 45 minute run. There is plenty of shade, too, even at the upper parts of the trail.

It’s DEFINITELY mountain lion country! Plenty of ravines for them to hang out in and hide their kills.

There are numerous trails crisscrossing each other and without a map or tracking device, it would be easy to get lost or off of a planned route if one was unfamiliar with the area. However, it would equally be just as easy to head downhill and eventually run into a trail, house, or major roadway. Additionally, the trails can be a bit loose with lots of uneven surfaces. Tripping, falling, twisting an ankle, or even tumbling down a steep slope into a ravine is definitely a possibility.

While SAR teams can search a lot of places, a human body is actually harder to find than one thinks. The ravine slopes and accompanying vegetation means that even when they say 100% of the park has been searched, it’s truly not every square inch of the area.

 

[Normancita]

Brainstorming:

One possibility -- as he ran along the trails, if there are other places where the trail is near an access point/parking area or even just parallels near a road, he might have encountered someone who forced him away. (but why?)

Another possibility is that he never made it to the trail in the first place, encountered foul play earlier by someone who then parked PK's car at the trailhead to create a false idea he was in the park -- (to which I then ask: although we know he had these routes in his Strava from 2019, did he actually tell anyone that's where he was planning to run that morning?)

All just speculative ideas in response to your question. I don't know what I think actually happened to him.

Didn’t he tell CT he might run there?

 

[Deleted member 222031]

So I walked the Miller Ranch and Preserve trails today. Here’s some observations:

I’m much older and way less fit than Philip plus it was warm today, but I did not find it so challenging that I believe he suffered from heat exhaustion in what was a 45 minute run. There is plenty of shade, too, even at the upper parts of the trail.

It’s DEFINITELY mountain lion country! Plenty of ravines for them to hang out in and hide their kills.

There are numerous trails crisscrossing each other and without a map or tracking device, it would be easy to get lost or off of a planned route if one was unfamiliar with the area. However, it would equally be just as easy to head downhill and eventually run into a trail, house, or major roadway. Additionally, the trails can be a bit loose with lots of uneven surfaces. Tripping, falling, twisting an ankle, or even tumbling down a steep slope into a ravine is definitely a possibility.

While SAR teams can search a lot of places, a human body is actually harder to find than one thinks. The ravine slopes and accompanying vegetation means that even when they say 100% of the park has been searched, it’s truly not every square inch of the area.

I am thinking he could have run without getting into heat distress, too. But wouldn't he find a way to alert searchers? They were out there early and often. Unless he had a head injury or was in a deep ravine, I think he would have found a way to get close to a trail. He would want to be found. My gut tells me he's not there but you may be right.

Hopefully a search presence can be maintained in some form while a potential criminal investigation is launched (that, of course means producing some camera footage or other evidence we don't have now).

JMOO

 

[MichelleAntonia]

So I walked the Miller Ranch and Preserve trails today. Here’s some observations:

I’m much older and way less fit than Philip plus it was warm today, but I did not find it so challenging that I believe he suffered from heat exhaustion in what was a 45 minute run. There is plenty of shade, too, even at the upper parts of the trail.

It’s DEFINITELY mountain lion country! Plenty of ravines for them to hang out in and hide their kills.

There are numerous trails crisscrossing each other and without a map or tracking device, it would be easy to get lost or off of a planned route if one was unfamiliar with the area. However, it would equally be just as easy to head downhill and eventually run into a trail, house, or major roadway. Additionally, the trails can be a bit loose with lots of uneven surfaces. Tripping, falling, twisting an ankle, or even tumbling down a steep slope into a ravine is definitely a possibility.

While SAR teams can search a lot of places, a human body is actually harder to find than one thinks. The ravine slopes and accompanying vegetation means that even when they say 100% of the park has been searched, it’s truly not every square inch of the area.

I've been there in the past and I can back up these observations.

The only thing that's making me think twice that he's still in the park is that for someone so fit, getting lost or distressed in a space that's so relatively small doesn't seem likely to result in not being found, even three weeks later. He would be likely to wander to a road or house, or be found near one. This place isn't Yosemite or Joshua Tree, this place more like a urban/suburban park than that.

My mind keeps going back to the people who reported shouts for help a few days after 7/10. What's the likelihood of them mistaking animal sounds for a human shouting for help? Further, what's the likelihood that was someone else in distress in the park?

 

[terracotta1982]

If I'm recalling correctly, he was purported to have run from the Moller Ranch staging area, passing the water tower/Moller Ranch bench, onward to some uncharted trails, with the hopes of eventually ending up in Pleasanton Ridge RP.

From the park maps, we all found out this route is not possible. As someone so 'analytical' and 'intelligent' as purported by those close to him, why on Earth didn't he, at the very least, check Google maps to see that these trails DO NOT link up, at any point!?! What made him think he could park where he did and end up where he told others,unless he never really intended on being there in the first place? (classic misdirection!)

You know what trails DO link up? The one from the Moller Ranch staging area to the Preserve Staging area, with only a 0.4 mile distance. (The Preserve area also has a small loop trail, which would be way more manageable in the short amount of time he had to complete his run.) Did he change his initial course and end up going North to the Preserve instead of South to Pleasanton Ridge?

If he did, did he use this short trail run to escape? He could have parked his car at Moller Ranch, made a quick run over to the Preserve trailhead parking lot, hopped in a different car, or a bike (he had more than enough time to stop here first and leave a bicycle at the staging area on his hour drive from Berkeley to Pleasanton, which only takes about 30 minutes).

I've driven Laurel Creek Dr., the road where the Preserve staging area is, plenty of times as a shortcut from Stoneridge Dr. to Dublin Canyon Rd. to Palomares Rd. in Castro Valley. Coming from Stoneridge Dr., you will reach the Preserve staging area before you drive through the actual neighborhood. There are no houses leading up to the staging area parking lot when traveling from Stoneridge/Foothill.

I'd wager you could enter this area completely undetected, park, hike, leave your car or bicycle for several hours at the trailhead and no one would bat an eyelash, especially when it's so hot, there are few other hikers/witnesses. Additionally, Laurel Creek Dr., the road the Preserve trailhead is on, connects to Dublin Canyon Rd, which is a very popular and beautiful rural biking route that takes you through rolling hills, farmland and vineyards.

I believe that whatever he did, it wasn't seen as unusual, and didn't stick out in any other trail user's mind, if anyone saw him at all.

All of this to ask -Did he have a bike with him when he dropped off the package in Oakland? Are there cameras entering The Preserve, or at the intersection of Foothill/Laurel Creek Dr. that may have spotted him coming in/out of the area? Is anyone looking into his call records and cell phone/car GPS to figure out where he was during a brief window of unaccounted for time? All MOO.

Major Bart station is a mile away...

 

[JMapes]

Pleasanton BART to SFO is about 1 hour 15 minutes. From there, he could be on his way to anywhere before anyone would be looking for him...But the focus has only been on Pleasanton Ridge and looking for him in the surrounding area. BART and SFO have plenty of cameras though, of course. (except BART cameras do kinda have a reputation and history of...not working...)

Though, I do still think the most obvious explanation is most likely. That he's still up there somewhere. It's easy to get turned around on those trails, even with Google maps in your pocket. Not having a phone handy doesn't help those situations. MOO.

 

[Vacajoe]

Unless he was knocked unconscious or died very quickly (head injury, broken neck, animal attack, heat stroke), those immediate searchers would have heard his cry for help. It’s a relatively small area and sound travels in those hills/ravines.

 

[MichelleAntonia]

Unless he was knocked unconscious or died very quickly (head injury, broken neck, animal attack, heat stroke), those immediate searchers would have heard his cry for help. It’s a relatively small area and sound travels in those hills/ravines.

Which is why I keep thinking about those reported shouts. But why didn't they yield anything? Wasn't the area from which they came then searched thoroughly in the days after?

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Didn’t he tell CT he might run there?

Maybe, but I think they mentioned many places. And I'd bet PK has Strava routes on his phone for most parks with decent running trails in the East Bay. In the text with CT he said he was going to find a place to run on the way to Stockton, making it sound like he would choose the spot fairly spontaneously. Which makes me wonder whether others really knew this is where he was going to run. When he told his wife his eta, had he told her specifically where he was going to run?

My mind keeps going back to the people who reported shouts for help a few days after 7/10. What's the likelihood of them mistaking animal sounds for a human shouting for help? Further, what's the likelihood that was someone else in distress in the park?

I thought there were searches already underway at the time the shouts were heard, and the consensus was that it was most likely searchers shouting "Philip" which could easily sound like "help".

MOO