The Fall Of Kabul To The Taliban

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dotr said:
Taliban take over Afghanistan: What we know and what's next
''WHY DID THE AFGHAN SECURITY FORCES COLLAPSE?
The short answer? Corruption.

The U.S. and its NATO allies spent billions of dollars over two decades to train and equip Afghan security forces. But the Western-backed government was rife with corruption. Commanders exaggerated the number of soldiers to siphon off resources, and troops in the field often lacked ammunition, supplies or even food.

Their morale further eroded when it became clear the U.S. was on its way out. As the Taliban rapidly advanced in recent days entire units surrendered after brief battles, and Kabul and some nearby provinces fell without a fight.''

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A long history of bad deals, including the release of Taliban prisoners to just come back and run the place. I think we'll learn more about the shady deals of past administrations, and the effect of the lack of any cooperation or orderly transfer of power after November, culminating in the poorly-informed decisions of this administration.

Bribery detailed in Afghans' fall

The Taliban capitalized on the uncertainty caused by the February 2020 agreement reached in Doha, Qatar, between the militant group and the U.S. calling for a full American withdrawal from Afghanistan. Some Afghan forces realized they would soon no longer be able to count on American air power and other crucial battlefield support and grew receptive to the Taliban's approaches.

"Some just wanted the money," an Afghan special forces officer said of those who first agreed to meet with the Taliban. But others saw the U.S. commitment to a full withdrawal as an "assurance" that the militants would return to power in Afghanistan and wanted to secure their place on the winning side, he said. The officer spoke on the condition of anonymity because he, like others in this report, were not authorized to disclose information to the press.

The Doha agreement, designed to bring an end to the war in Afghanistan, instead left many Afghan forces demoralized, bringing into stark relief the corrupt impulses of many Afghan officials and their tenuous loyalty to the country's central government. Some police officers complained that they had not been paid in six months or more.

"They saw that document as the end," the officer said, referring to the majority of Afghans aligned with the government. "The day the deal was signed we saw the change. Everyone was just looking out for himself. It was like [the U.S.] left us to fail."
 
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A NATO security official at the airport told Reuters that 17 people had been injured in a stampede at one gate to the airport.

People were still camping out near the airport’s gates. Whole families sat under rows of pine trees lining the main airport road, while others, carrying sparse belongings, were still trying to gain entrance, to little avail. The Taliban still had their men stationed at the entrances. There were volleys of rifle fire, pushing, pulling and beating with wooden sticks, Kalashnikovs and pieces of cut hoses.

Chaos spreads outside Kabul’s airport as the Taliban try to control crowds.
 
Of course this is one person.
But I understand your surprise.
Contrary to your work person friend. There is no doubt that Afghanistan citizens are terrified.



GatorFL said:
He said that the Taliban exists in his country as well and they regard Afghanistan as their friendly neighbor. He was shocked that I was concerned for him and his family. It was a big surprise to me that he wasn't worried.
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I met this words in an article that called Afghanistan “intelligence failure”.

“We did not understand the tribal dynamics, we never did. We think everybody wants what we have. It's cultural obtuseness, obliviousness to their reality.”
Michael Zacchea
U.S. MARINE CORPS LT. COL. (RET)

I don’t think there are better words to explain it.

No one can not bring in democracy. While there is certain osmosis, in general, every country has to grow into its own.

Time to accept that people can live and think differently. (Just an example - we view burquas as mockery of women, but maybe some women feel naked without their burquas?)

In 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia, with its democratic France and über-progressive Napoleonic Code - and Russian peasants mounted aggressive guerrilla war. Someone dressed and speaking differently treads your land, it’s enough.

US came to Afghanistan with the best of intentions - but MOO, for Afghani peasants, Americans, looking, dressing, speaking and praying differently, would always remain outsiders, and their societal structure, foreign. (The article about dog shelter in Kabul is a good example. The idea was kind, but the place, wrong, now the animals need to be put down).

And this is why the Talibans are in Kabul so fast. Now time is to think how to prevent its spread beyond Afghanistan.
 
Charlot123 said:
I met this words in an article that called Afghanistan “intelligence failure”.

“We did not understand the tribal dynamics, we never did. We think everybody wants what we have. It's cultural obtuseness, obliviousness to their reality.”
Michael Zacchea
U.S. MARINE CORPS LT. COL. (RET)

I don’t think there are better words to explain it.

No one can not bring in democracy. While there is certain osmosis, in general, every country has to grow into its own.

Time to accept that people can live and think differently. (Just an example - we view burquas as mockery of women, but maybe some women feel naked without their burquas?)

In 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia, with its democratic France and über-progressive Napoleonic Code - and Russian peasants mounted aggressive guerrilla war. Someone dressed and speaking differently treads your land, it’s enough.

US came to Afghanistan with the best of intentions - but MOO, for Afghani peasants, Americans, looking, dressing, speaking and praying differently, would always remain outsiders, and their societal structure, foreign. (The article about dog shelter in Kabul is a good example. The idea was kind, but the place, wrong, now the animals need to be put down).

And this is why the Talibans are in Kabul so fast. Now time is to think how to prevent its spread beyond Afghanistan.
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I appreciate and agree with your thought-provoking posts. I found the article you mention and I highly recommend that everyone read it in order to get an accurate picture of how the Taliban have been able to seize power so quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/how-afghanistan-fell-to-the-taliban-so-quickly.html
 
GatorFL said:
No. I think a majority of Afghans want Taliban rule. This is what I heard from a work colleague in Pakistan.
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From my actual experience, the vast majority of Afghans want exactly what we want: to live and to work to support their families and to come home each day and live their life. Absolutely ZERO of the Afghan women or children (ie: the majority of the population of Afghanistan) I met, helped and worked with ever wanted to live under Taliban rule and I am extremely doubtful they wish to do so again; it's deadly for them. Nor did the Afghan men I met and worked with want to either.

Is your work colleague a male perchance? Interesting also to note that Pakistan harboured the Taliban, but it's not like the Taliban imposed sharia law there and were executing Pakistani womenfolk for working, being out, being burqha-less or executing Pakistani citizens of any sex /age for playing outside, for laughing, for playing music etc etc or for not practicing the Taliban version of ultra-politics and religion, or torture techniques.

I guess when one isn't themselves subjugated to actually living under Taliban rule it's easy to write-off those who fear such, and who've actually had to live it, as "meh".
 
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August 19 2021 rbbm.
Desperate Afghan mothers ‘threw babies over barbed wire fences’ and pleaded for western soldiers to take them
''DESPERATE Afghan mothers threw their young babies over barbed wire fences at Kabul airport, begging western soldiers to take them with them.

"The mothers were desperate, they were getting beaten by the Taliban. They shouted, 'save my baby' and threw the babies at us; some of the babies fell on the barbed wire. It was awful what happened. By the end of the night there wasn't one man among us who was not crying," said a British Parachute Regiment officer.''

''Britain’s defence secretary said however that his country is unable to evacuate unaccompanied children from Afghanistan, when asked about footage which showed a young child being handed over a wall to Western soldiers.
"We can't just take a minor on their own," Ben Wallace told Sky News when asked about the footage.
However, Britain has pledged to take in 20,000 Afghan refugees, prioritising women and children.''
 
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Vern said:
From my actual experience, the vast majority of Afghans want exactly what we want: to live and to work to support their families and to come home each day and live their life. Absolutely ZERO of the Afghan women or children (ie: the majority of the population of Afghanistan) I met, helped and worked with ever wanted to live under Taliban rule and I am extremely doubtful they wish to do so again; it's deadly for them. Nor did the Afghan men I met and worked with want to either.

Is your work colleague a male perchance? Interesting also to note that Pakistan harboured the Taliban, but it's not like the Taliban imposed sharia law there and were executing Pakistani womenfolk for working, being out, being burqha-less or executing Pakistani citizens of any sex /age for playing outside, for laughing, for playing music etc etc or for not practicing the Taliban version of ultra-politics and religion, or torture techniques.

I guess when one isn't themselves subjugated to actually living under Taliban rule it's easy to write-off those who fear such, and who've actually had to live it, as "meh".
Click to expand...

Probably, we can’t talk about the majority in a tribal system. I admit I have no clue, I can only imagine what happens to the society that has been at war for 42 years. I spoke to some Afghani people traveling there, and came to the conclusion that I had very little understanding of their own political views, but they grew up here, close to the US, and hence, were scared of the Afghani locals. All I can foretell is that if the Talibans take the education of the young people into their own hands, we know what to expect in 10 years.

The history of Pakistan itself is too complicated, there was a good movie about Benazir Bhutto that gave me some understanding, but at least, we can talk about certain progressive forces in Pakistan, and economically, it is incomparable to Afghanistan. I think Pakistan won’t want to be dragged into undeveloped life. As to poor Tajiks living on the other Afghani border, this is what we don’t know.

Does anyone remember what country was the last to conquer Afghanistan? I think it was Alexander the Great who conquered Bactria and Sogdiana.
 
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This article from “Radio Liberty” (financed by US Congress) is foretelling. It tells about the 1979 USSR invasion that everyone calls a mistake now but there are some interesting elements. I think history will repeat itself, but with another country.

Ошибка ценою в тысячи жизней. 40 лет вторжению в Афганистан

(I think you can switch it into English but for some reason it doesn’t copy in English)

Interesting parts: Durand Line - Wikipedia

To explain some of the tribalism and how Pushtun tribes were divided

“in the countries like Afghanistan, and it is an oriental country, one can not abandon people who believed you. It will create the vacuum of power”.

“the main consequence of that was was tremendous loss of prestige of the USSR among Islamic states”…

It was a long time ago, but the way I think now, before 1978, Afghanistan was a feudal state. This long war did not allow it to develop economically. Feudal states have to go their own way to develop into a better society.
 
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Vern said:
From my actual experience, the vast majority of Afghans want exactly what we want: to live and to work to support their families and to come home each day and live their life. Absolutely ZERO of the Afghan women or children (ie: the majority of the population of Afghanistan) I met, helped and worked with ever wanted to live under Taliban rule and I am extremely doubtful they wish to do so again; it's deadly for them. Nor did the Afghan men I met and worked with want to either.

Is your work colleague a male perchance? Interesting also to note that Pakistan harboured the Taliban, but it's not like the Taliban imposed sharia law there and were executing Pakistani womenfolk for working, being out, being burqha-less or executing Pakistani citizens of any sex /age for playing outside, for laughing, for playing music etc etc or for not practicing the Taliban version of ultra-politics and religion, or torture techniques.

I guess when one isn't themselves subjugated to actually living under Taliban rule it's easy to write-off those who fear such, and who've actually had to live it, as "meh".
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Yes, he's a man.
 
If the Administration does not get ALL U.S. citizens, and the Afghani's who helped/worked for us out of there safely, I believe there should be firings, resignations, and a thorough investigation.

This is an unconscionable fiasco, totally avoidable.

IMO
 
Please don't make me do the math!

Pentagon Press Sec John Kirby ( today ) : "Of the 2,000 over the last 24 hours" who have been evacuated from Afghanistan "nearly 300 of them were Americans."

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1428383208748593155

Link includes C-span video portion of today's press briefing with the U.S. Pentagon

IMO, this " Fall of Kabul" has been handled so poorly by the U.S. government, as evidenced by the initial order to American citizens to " shelter in place".... THEN the order to evacuate to the airport. ( But you're on your own )...kinda like "tag...you're it!" Followed by the clearly evident evacuation of 30 times the number of Afghani refugees to U.S. citizens. It just isn't making a bit of sense to me!
 
Charlot123 said:
I met this words in an article that called Afghanistan “intelligence failure”.

“We did not understand the tribal dynamics, we never did. We think everybody wants what we have. It's cultural obtuseness, obliviousness to their reality.”
Michael Zacchea
U.S. MARINE CORPS LT. COL. (RET)

I don’t think there are better words to explain it.

No one can not bring in democracy. While there is certain osmosis, in general, every country has to grow into its own.

Time to accept that people can live and think differently. (Just an example - we view burquas as mockery of women, but maybe some women feel naked without their burquas?)

In 1812, Napoleon invaded Russia, with its democratic France and über-progressive Napoleonic Code - and Russian peasants mounted aggressive guerrilla war. Someone dressed and speaking differently treads your land, it’s enough.

US came to Afghanistan with the best of intentions - but MOO, for Afghani peasants, Americans, looking, dressing, speaking and praying differently, would always remain outsiders, and their societal structure, foreign. (The article about dog shelter in Kabul is a good example. The idea was kind, but the place, wrong, now the animals need to be put down).

And this is why the Talibans are in Kabul so fast. Now time is to think how to prevent its spread beyond Afghanistan.
Click to expand...


BBM about understanding tribal dynamics. It's sad if, according to that Marine, they didn't understand tribal dynamics, but many other Americans did and still do. I read about tribal dynamics in the ME back in the late 80's and early 90's. Someone wrote an op-ed a few days ago explaining how tribal dynamics in Afghanistan have historically seen factions maintain agreements about surrender among themselves. The examples they gave were during battles back in the 1980's. How did our US military and intel operations experience such amnesia that they lose such institutional knowledge?

Even post WWII, experts knew it would be impossible to bring U.S.-style democracy to ME countries. It doesn't fit, doesn't work with their history, culture and religion. Their form of government, such as it is, is based on tribalism and the agreements tribes maintain among themselves. We can't change it, no matter how much we bomb and annihilate them. How many times does the US have to learn the same lesson?

JMO
 
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