CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #6

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Sorry if this has been brought up before, but where/when did the Sheriff's Office say that?

The sheriff said it more than once in different wordings, here's the most recent from the final press conference. "On Tuesday, August 17th, at 4:00am, Search and Rescue teams arrived and were able to locate human and animal tracks and begin tracking down the Hite Cove Road/Trail." You can read the whole transcript on the Mariposa Sheriff's FB page.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

I think that's a very good hypothesis- if JG was stronger, and they wanted to move fast and light, it would make sense for him to carry everything, and keep it to a minimum. People do make catastrophic misjudgments- even people who absolutely should know better. Here are two cases of people who were EXPERTS, and yet they ended up like G-C who were NOT experts. Ultrarunner Michael Popov, set off on a 10K (6 mile) run across Death Valley in 123F temps. It became a 10 mile (16K) run because he picked a route where you can sink in up to your knees. He took less than 2 liters of water. He made it, but died despite the efforts of good Samaritans, paramedics, and a helicopter life flight. Ultrarunner Philip Kreycik, set out on an 8 mile run in 106F temps, running as fast as 12 mph (12kmh). He was dressed in running clothes, took no water. He too died. In both cases there is evidence of the mental debilitation caused by overheating, Popov was "delirious and combative" when found, Kreycik wandered aimlessly far off his planned route, walking slower and slower, according to the GPS data on his smartwatch. In all these cases, they kept going, sticking to their plans when it was going bad and they should have turned back.

I think for Kreycik and the GCs, moving quickly could have played a role too, by the time it registered that there was a problem they were some distance from their vehicles. Devil's Gulch had no cell service, Kreycik had no phone. The GCs had gone through their water, Kreycik had none. I have experienced a heat emergency and it is impossible to overstate how it affects thinking and even the ability to move. I was astounded that Kreycik ended up under a tree, I stayed in the sun for quite a bit of time, behavior is not rational, the brain is overheating. I was very lucky to have people who recognized the situation help me. There really needs to be a public education campaign using phrases like "brain damage" and warning of visits by CPS and the Humane Society if babies and dogs are taken out on trails during extreme heat advisories. That might break through to people.

 

[Yvettea]

RSBM Yes, there is an amazing range of what different people consider an "easy" hike. There is a Bay Area hiking club called INCH, Intrepid Northern California Hikers. Their motto is "Less talk, more walk". As they put it, "Some people hike to enjoy the beauty of nature ... some people hike to achieve inner serenity ... some people hike for the physical and mental challenge ... we hike because we love to suffer!" They do 40 mile hikes... The specs for the G-C loop hike are not easy, but those INCH people could hike it in under 3 hrs, absent the heat. Hardest I've done (in my youth) is Syvfjellturen, Bergen's "Tour of the Seven Mountains". 35km (22 miles) 2300m (7546') elevation gain. My sadistic cousin Kjersti took me on it. Wasn't a hot day though.

Your sadistic cousin.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

RSBM Yes, there is an amazing range of what different people consider an "easy" hike. There is a Bay Area hiking club called INCH, Intrepid Northern California Hikers. Their motto is "Less talk, more walk". As they put it, "Some people hike to enjoy the beauty of nature ... some people hike to achieve inner serenity ... some people hike for the physical and mental challenge ... we hike because we love to suffer!" They do 40 mile hikes... The specs for the G-C loop hike are not easy, but those INCH people could hike it in under 3 hrs, absent the heat. Hardest I've done (in my youth) is Syvfjellturen, Bergen's "Tour of the Seven Mountains". 35km (22 miles) 2300m (7546') elevation gain. My sadistic cousin Kjersti took me on it. Wasn't a hot day though.

Yikes, that sounds horrible to me, but there are people who enjoy that sort of thing, including the GCs.

 

[RedHaus]

Sniped & BBM
But that's exactly what they did, completing all but the last 1.5 Mi. How do explain that fact unless you subscribe to the notion that a nefarious element compelled them to attempt the entire loop?

Well, @rahod1, that is one notion.

IF the family only intended a brief outing, as IMO, that was all they were dressed, equipped and prepared for, here are notions that COULD explain why they instead ended up walking 6.5 miles of arduous elevation changes in upwards of 109 degree heat, with no shade from the burning sun and two vulnerable dependents.

1. They got a mile or so down the trail and, off leash, Oski took off ahead of the family. They frantically followed his tracks down to the river and down South Fork Trail. By the time they got a hold of Oski, they decided going back via the Savage Lundy Trail was their only recourse not knowing how fragile they already were.

2. Someone had told JG or EC that they would pick them up with their ATV below Marble Point as that friend planned to be out there anyhow, allowing the family time to enjoy the river after their 2-3 mile downhill walk that morning. But sadly, that person never picked up the family. So they opted to walk along the river and up SLT.

3. The family went off piste to explore some unmarked trail, perhaps on the other side of the river below Marble Point (if you want, poke around the SO FB page to find reference to rumored grow op locations down there) and they were accidentally sprayed with spray trap (e.g. a poison not detectable during autopsy) and rendered incapacitated. In their stunned state, the best decision they could make was to keep going around the 'loop' perhaps unable to comprehend their grave conditions.

4. The family was the victim of a horrendous homicide by death march, either from revenge for something (see my post ^^^) or because they came across something they were not supposed to see (perhaps they witnessed another homicide). The death march could have been orchestrated under the threat of long gun fire from a distance.

5. Somewhere along the line the family went off piste (perhaps as they headed down Hite Cove OHV Trail) and they got lost and all turned around. They got back on the trail but by that time they were disoriented and already suffering from heat exhaustion and no longer capable of making sound decisions. So they kept to their 'loop' plan.

There is no data to support any of this. Just like, as I contend, there is insufficient data to confirm the family intended on doing that horrendous hike vastly unprepared. So back to JG's phone. If the FBI can analyze it, that phone is likely the key to either pursuing any of these notions further or simply ruling them out as fantasy. IMO.

 

[rahod1]

There is no data to support any of this. Just like, as I contend, there is insufficient data to confirm the family intended on doing that horrendous hike vastly unprepared. So back to JG's phone. If the FBI can analyze it, that phone is likely the key to either pursuing any of these notions further or simply ruling them out as fantasy. IMO.

Sniped & BBM
Well, that list of possible explanations as to why they didn't plan to take the entire loop is certainly a complete one.
In a nutshell for me>>> You have evidence of JC mapping the entire loop the day before and you have them taking that hike. That's enough for me to bring out the *OL' RAZOR* and be done with explanations that require a LOT more assumptions. MOO

 

[RickshawFan]

This is what I've suspected from the beginning; that he, being 15 years older, was the family leader and had her complete trust. He was also the one bringing in the most income, so he was in the stronger position to make exotic adventures happen (Himalayas, Mongolia).

Still, though, you'd think that upon becoming a mom, her motherly instincts would kick in, and she'd have strong inclinations to protect the baby. I don't know how universal that is with new moms, though. There's a huge learning curve with infants (and kids of any age), for sure.

IMO I doubt JG told EC what to wear on the hike. That had to have been her decision.

IMO we have to be careful not to fall into sexist (or ageist) stereotyping to fill in a lacuna in our information. It's tempting to say he was taking the lead in it all, but she was clearly making decisions herself that were part of the package of errors. It's possible she took the lead in all things hiking, even: we don't know.

 

[RickshawFan]

Well, @rahod1, that is one notion.

IF the family only intended a brief outing, as IMO, that was all they were dressed, equipped and prepared for, here are notions that COULD explain why they instead ended up walking 6.5 miles of arduous elevation changes in upwards of 109 degree heat, with no shade from the burning sun and two vulnerable dependents.

1. They got a mile or so down the trail and, off leash, Oski took off ahead of the family. They frantically followed his tracks down to the river and down South Fork Trail. By the time they got a hold of Oski, they decided going back via the Savage Lundy Trail was their only recourse not knowing how fragile they already were.

2. Someone had told JG or EC that they would pick them up with their ATV below Marble Point as that friend planned to be out there anyhow, allowing the family time to enjoy the river after their 2-3 mile downhill walk that morning. But sadly, that person never picked up the family. So they opted to walk along the river and up SLT.

3. The family went off piste to explore some unmarked trail, perhaps on the other side of the river below Marble Point (if you want, poke around the SO FB page to find reference to rumored grow op locations down there) and they were accidentally sprayed with spray trap (e.g. a poison not detectable during autopsy) and rendered incapacitated. In their stunned state, the best decision they could make was to keep going around the 'loop' perhaps unable to comprehend their grave conditions.

4. The family was the victim of a horrendous homicide by death march, either from revenge for something (see my post ^^^) or because they came across something they were not supposed to see (perhaps they witnessed another homicide). The death march could have been orchestrated under the threat of long gun fire from a distance.

5. Somewhere along the line the family went off piste (perhaps as they headed down Hite Cove OHV Trail) and they got lost and all turned around. They got back on the trail but by that time they were disoriented and already suffering from heat exhaustion and no longer capable of making sound decisions. So they kept to their 'loop' plan.

There is no data to support any of this. Just like, as I contend, there is insufficient data to confirm the family intended on doing that horrendous hike vastly unprepared. So back to JG's phone. If the FBI can analyze it, that phone is likely the key to either pursuing any of these notions further or simply ruling them out as fantasy. IMO.

I actually think at least some aspect of #1 in fact happened. If the doggie was off-leash (evidently EC's standard practice), he would have made a bee-line for the water. There's no way he was going to stay with them IMO and not propel himself towards water if there was some there. He might have been very hard to corral after that.

 

[RickshawFan]

Sniped & BBM
But that's exactly what they did, completing all but the last 1.5 Mi. How do explain that fact unless you subscribe to the notion that a nefarious element compelled them to attempt the entire loop?

I smile every time I read @rahod1 's posts because of the "snipe". It takes me aback for a moment....

 

[rahod1]

I actually think at least some aspect of #1 in fact happened. If the doggie was off-leash (evidently EC's standard practice), he would have made a bee-line for the water. There's no way he was going to stay with them IMO and not propel himself towards water if there was some there. He might have been very hard to corral after that.

BBM (Not snipped )
If dog the did that AND THEY DIDN'T PLAN TO GO DOWN TO THE RIVER, MOO>>>>One of them should have gone down to the river to get the dog...leaving baby and other adult behind...maybe under some shade that was still available OR send them back to car. To me, if they didn't plan to go any farther than where they were when dog *bolted*, then it would have been foolish for ALL to do so.

 

[rahod1]

I smile every time I read @rahod1 's posts because of the "snipe". It takes me aback for a moment....

LOL...got me there! Thanks

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Well, my scientifically trained mind hates to jump to conclusions without adequate data. The fact JG researched the 8 mile 'loop' the day before they started their fateful outing, IMO, does not mean they planned to do the entire loop the next day... To me it is a potentially erroneous leap in logic to connect "map search on line day before" to "they must have intended to hike the entire loop the next day". Especially when it would be a ludicrous adventure in that heat.

My mind is also scientifically trained. There is adequate data to support the loop hike, unless you leave half of it out. The evidence:
1. Early on, the sheriff said based on the track evidence they did most of the loop, and mentioned that JG had looked at maps of the area the day before.
2. In the final presser the sheriff gave more detail saying that that JG had placed waypoints to map the loop the day before.
The track evidence and location of the bodies was conclusive that they HAD attempted the loop, the mapping evidence just confirms it was planned.
Being scientifically trained, I just love evidence. I guess it's kind of boring though.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

There is no data to support any of this. IMO.

(Snipped to get to the bottom line.) I agree. On the other hand, the track evidence, location of the bodies, and the waypoints made by JG the day before are all supported by the sheriff's statements. They are supported by data from LE. They are not my opinion.

 

[rahod1]

My mind is also scientifically trained. There is adequate data to support the loop hike, unless you leave half of it out. The evidence:
1. Early on, the sheriff said based on the track evidence they did most of the loop, and mentioned that JG had looked at maps of the area the day before.
2. In the final presser the sheriff gave more detail saying that that JG had placed waypoints to map the loop the day before.
The track evidence and location of the bodies was conclusive that they HAD attempted the loop, the mapping evidence just confirms it was planned.
Being scientifically trained, I just love evidence. I guess it's kind of boring though.

On the money. I think there are some here that simply can't IMAGINE HOW this family could fail to properly plan for a hike of this magnitude under extreme conditions, so there's a temptation to *rationalze* this either by positing that 1) they DIDN'T plan to do the entire hike and were diverted or 2) They thought the hike would be relatively easy (they did the research) requiring minimal preparation and miscalculated . These scenarios are RED HERRINGS for me. The real question..yes I beat this drum...>>> At some point things weren't going well..for whatever reason...and CHANGING the plan should have become a priority. Cut bait and live for another day. The focus for me is WHY not CHANGE the plan when it became apparent they could be in big trouble?
Bottom line for me (MOO)>> They planned the hike and decided to finish it.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

On the money. I think there are some here that simply can't IMAGINE HOW this family could fail to properly plan for a hike of this magnitude under extreme conditions, so there's a temptation to *rationalze* this either by positing that 1) they DIDN'T plan to do the entire hike and were diverted or 2) They thought the hike would be relatively easy (they did the research) requiring minimal preparation and miscalculated . These scenarios are RED HERRINGS for me. The real question..yes I beat this drum...>>> At some point things weren't going well..for whatever reason...and CHANGING the plan should have become a priority. Cut bait and live for another day. The focus for me is WHY not CHANGE the plan when it became apparent they could be in big trouble?
Bottom line for me (MOO)>> They planned the hike and decided to finish it.

I think that realization may have been as late as the river or even the bottom of SL, at that point, with no cell coverage, the only way out in their minds was up. Going back to the river and waiting until dawn and cooler temps might not even have occurred to them. When heat warps cognition, clinging ever more tightly to the original plan is not uncommon.
What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke - Outside Online

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

On the money. I think there are some here that simply can't IMAGINE HOW this family could fail to properly plan for a hike of this magnitude under extreme conditions, so there's a temptation to *rationalze* this either by positing that 1) they DIDN'T plan to do the entire hike and were diverted or 2) They thought the hike would be relatively easy (they did the research) requiring minimal preparation and miscalculated . These scenarios are RED HERRINGS for me. The real question..yes I beat this drum...>>> At some point things weren't going well..for whatever reason...and CHANGING the plan should have become a priority. Cut bait and live for another day. The focus for me is WHY not CHANGE the plan when it became apparent they could be in big trouble?
Bottom line for me (MOO)>> They planned the hike and decided to finish it.

I wonder if there were even attempts to call 911, would be interesting to know. JG may have honestly, if mistakenly, believed that after sitting for a few minutes he would get up and climb up to the truck. The heat and elevation changes were too much. The SO said 109 but in the canyon with radiating heat it could have been much hotter. With heat stroke it can come on and progress very quickly and you may not fully realize how dangerous it has become. As they got hotter and more uncomfortable, they may have tried to move even faster. Until they just couldn't. With HS it can feel like you have no control over your muscles, you can't move and just want to sit. Very sad. Hopefully the publicity may spur others to be more cautious re: heat and to carry personal locator beacons.

 

[Yvettea]

If you use the oxX app to map the hike it shows the weather information for Mariposa, Ca and the much milder temperatures on Aug, 15. Maybe this family had no way to anticipate a high of 109° anticipating the much milder forecast for Mariposa.

ETA:JMO

 

[ItalyReader]

the sheriff gave more detail saying that that JG had placed waypoints to map the loop the day before.
The track evidence and location of the bodies was conclusive that they HAD attempted the loop, the mapping evidence just confirms it was planned.
Being scientifically trained, I just love evidence. I guess it's kind of boring though.

RBBM and *sniped by me -

Precisely! this sums LE’s assessment of their route *and* intention. Thank you, Lex!
Not our opinion, not our guessing or surmising - this is LE’s assessment.

 

[5W's]

This is a great post IMO; very interesting question.
I was actually thinking about this last night, as I relaxed into that snoozy feeling of having had a very very good walk and having forgotten about the world for a day. My doggie and I both conked out heaped onto the couch.

We had only been on an easy-graded "hike". 5-ish miles. No rocks. Flat, wide, tread underfoot. Brilliant sunshine. Lots of "interest" (e.g. views, water features, fall leaf color).

I don't get this feel from a walk, especially in an urban environment. IMO nature has a restorative quality. There's quite a bit of research in this area, evidently (can't cite it at the moment).

But, I also think, in order to get a lot out of hiking (that you can't get out of going for a walk or the treadmill at the gym), you have to pay attention to the feel of nature: the breeze, the leaves, the colors, the chipmunks, the first sign of a storm. There's a sense that there's a whole big world of nature, and then there's you. This isn't for everyone.

I have a feeling the Gerrish-Chungs missed this aspect of hiking. They seem to have had a goal to achieve and felt compelled to achieve it, come hell or high water. And they hadn't the experience to comprehend that they were just a spec in the natural universe. They experienced nature in the worst possible way I could imagine, instead of choosing something that could delight every member of the family. "Dream it and you can achieve it" works in tech, but not with nature: you don't have a say in nature's behavior.

These days, I can get what I need from short, easy, hikes. I was never into "strenuous" or 10-milers. Even on the AT, I was every mile, "Am I there yet?" All I want is to wear myself out, have a few hours away from a fussy world, and get the warm and fuzzy follow-up feeling from snuggling up with my happy-exhausted puppy. The je ne sais quoi aspect of nature is what makes this happen for me.

I like your description of enjoying nature on hikes. But I don't know if its a fact that JG/EC liked pushing themselves to their limit. The pictures I've seen are those that show they were prepared for their hikes and dressed appropriately.

 

[5W's]

Yeah, I wouldn't get hung up on the lack of a water bowl, it doesn't mean the dog got no water. I drink wine without a wine glass. You may be wondering how that is possible. Well, I have a coffee mug that says "This is probably wine", a gift from my daughter. Easier to clean, less likely to get broken or knocked over. But back to the dog... here's the logic: the sheriff says they did the loop, and he would know. The dog could not possibly have made it that far without water. Therefore, the dog got water. As we have discussed many times, dogs are more susceptible to heat than people because they mostly cool thru panting, so even with water to drink, I wouldn't expect Oski to make it as far as his people did. Was he carried? Possibly. But if I did that hike with my dog, as soon as we got to the river she would have gone swimming and gotten a drink, and at every opportunity thereafter. (In summer we do keep her leashed and I check the water quality before we let her go) So my dog would have been wet and hydrated starting up the Savage Lundy Trail, which would have allowed her to make it a lot farther than would otherwise be possible. The photos of G-C hiking with Oski show him off leash, so I think it's a reasonable hypothesis that he cooled off in and drank river water during the several miles they hiked beside the river. MOO. Now the gratuitous photographic proof:

I don't disagree with your point about cooling off in the river before the hike for Oski. However, there is no other mention other than a few snacks that they had other sources of water to drink. with them. The amount of water they did have was not enough for all 4 of them. Plus Oski going into the river and then starting the hike would have dried off pretty quickly. I don't question LE's findings at all. LE worked with what they had. These questions that have been posed here by others and myself at the unusual circumstances could point to something else also. Its physically impossible for the family to have done this entire loop with so little water in 109 degrees temp. IMO.