Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #7

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Toowong(s) said:
Southaussie, from what I can tell the accused had access to two, maybe even three houses and seemed to drift between them IMO:
- house sitting property (Scottsburn)
- parents house (Mt Clear)
- also recall mention in MSM that the accused maintained a “share house” but can’t find the link. This may be referencing the house sitting house, or another 3rd house with some mates?

So I’m thinking the accused could have been gone all day Sunday, and not be missed. Parents would think he’s at the Scottsburn house with GF, while GF would think he’s at Mt Clear with parents. Or crashed at the sharehouse, or a mates house. They’d have a fair idea a Saturday night bender was a possibility so neither household would have missed him all day, assuming he’s sleeping off the bender.

Throwing a third house in the mix, the possible share house, or a mates house even, would further cloud the accused whereabouts for the entire day on Sunday.

So IMO the accused could have travelled far and wide before being missed, maybe even into the evening on Sunday.

It would be fascinating to understand when he eventually resurfaced after the alleged bender. Did he make it to work on Monday, or still coming down from the bender.
Click to expand...

Yes, he could have been gone all day, or just a few hours. But the police will be able to work that out.

"You didn't see him till ..."
"And you didn't see him until ..."
Etc, etc

imo
 
OptimusLime said:
My face when I read no cadaver dogs in Victoria
The coroner's reports are very well done in this country. I've read almost every one in Victoria/ NSW (medico- legal), but they do bring a lot of answers into the fold. (Especially Melissa Caddick).
My question is why don't they have cadaver dogs? Victoria has a population of almost 7 million.
Just read only two Australian states use them!
www.abc.net.au

'A privilege being able to assist': Cadaver dogs are some of Australia's most specialised canines. How are they trained?

For those tasked with finding human bodies, the bond between specially trained cadaver dog and handler is vital — and the physical and mental exhaustion will likely be worth it, if it can bring closure to those grieving for a loved one.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...

The cadaver dogs are loaned out to other states when needed. I posted a couple of links way back in the thread about cases where my state and Victoria both used cadaver dogs on loan from the two states who have them.

imo

ETA: This is the link to my previous post about it.

www.websleuths.com

Australia - Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

Specialist Search Dogs. Not sure if this has been brought up and is still correct but according to this article and the Vic Pol website, Cadaver police search dogs are only located in NSW & QLD. Vic Pol use German Shepherds . Cadaver dogs...
www.websleuths.com www.websleuths.com
 
The longer this goes on, the more inclined I am to believe that this was plannned and executed with a lot of rehearsal. That he had a place to dispose of the body before he murdered her, and that it is either underground or underwater or under a building that has not been on the radar. or else it would have been exposed by now. I think it's fair to say the body is not out in the open. And not near any horse farms, either, horses are particularly sensitive to (a) strangers in their paddock and (b) strange bodies in their paddocks ...

So either he is extremely lucky, or he planned and meticulously processed this whole matter, over and over again to get it right. There is, apparently, not much of any other sort of scenario, really...

However, VICPOL have gone toe to toe with other murderers of the same mind set, and eventually justice prevailed. Of the capacity of VICPOL to find the body, I have no doubt that they will. People are convicted of murder without a body, it happens , not a lot, but it happens enough to be comfortable with that outcome.

It is just as apparent that he has made one, or possibly more than one colossal , monumental error, or errors, because there he sits, under arrest for murder, so somewhere he has slipped up, either by talking, ( 3 can keep a secret , if 2 are dead , Benjamin Franklin) or he has been overcome with his own 'artwork' and filmed the entire thing and sent it on, I do think VICPOL are smarter than him. on any day of the week. VICPOL know the error he has made, which is why they are in no doubt that she is not only dead, but murdered, a double down of irreversible claims that VICPOL does not usually engage in.
 
Trooper said:
The longer this goes on, the more inclined I am to believe that this was plannned and executed with a lot of rehearsal. That he had a place to dispose of the body before he murdered her, and that it is either underground or underwater or under a building that has not been on the radar. or else it would have been exposed by now. I think it's fair to say the body is not out in the open. And not near any horse farms, either, horses are particularly sensitive to (a) strangers in their paddock and (b) strange bodies in their paddocks ...

So either he is extremely lucky, or he planned and meticulously processed this whole matter, over and over again to get it right. There is, apparently, not much of any other sort of scenario, really...

However, VICPOL have gone toe to toe with other murderers of the same mind set, and eventually justice prevailed. Of the capacity of VICPOL to find the body, I have no doubt that they will. People are convicted of murder without a body, it happens , not a lot, but it happens enough to be comfortable with that outcome.

It is just as apparent that he has made one, or possibly more than one colossal , monumental error, or errors, because there he sits, under arrest for murder, so somewhere he has slipped up, either by talking, ( 3 can keep a secret , if 2 are dead , Benjamin Franklin) or he has been overcome with his own 'artwork' and filmed the entire thing and sent it on, I do think VICPOL are smarter than him. on any day of the week. VICPOL know the error he has made, which is why they are in no doubt that she is not only dead, but murdered, a double down of irreversible claims that VICPOL does not usually engage in.
Click to expand...
I completely agree with you. I believe this attack is something he's been thinking about and planning for a long time. Maybe not with Samantha as the specific target, but a woman jogging alone at just the right (or wrong, for her) time for him to strike. He would have chosen the location carefully and figured out where he was going to hide the body, and rehearsed it all until he was sure he wasn't leaving any major evidence behind. IMO, MOO, etc., etc.
 
SouthAussie said:
The cadaver dogs are loaned out to other states when needed. I posted a couple of links way back in the thread about cases where my state and Victoria both used cadaver dogs on loan from the two states who have them.

imo

ETA: This is the link to my previous post about it.

www.websleuths.com

Australia - Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

Specialist Search Dogs. Not sure if this has been brought up and is still correct but according to this article and the Vic Pol website, Cadaver police search dogs are only located in NSW & QLD. Vic Pol use German Shepherds . Cadaver dogs...
www.websleuths.com www.websleuths.com
Click to expand...
Didn't see it my friend.
 
Trooper said:
The longer this goes on, the more inclined I am to believe that this was plannned and executed with a lot of rehearsal. That he had a place to dispose of the body before he murdered her, and that it is either underground or underwater or under a building that has not been on the radar. or else it would have been exposed by now. I think it's fair to say the body is not out in the open. And not near any horse farms, either, horses are particularly sensitive to (a) strangers in their paddock and (b) strange bodies in their paddocks ...

So either he is extremely lucky, or he planned and meticulously processed this whole matter, over and over again to get it right. There is, apparently, not much of any other sort of scenario, really...

However, VICPOL have gone toe to toe with other murderers of the same mind set, and eventually justice prevailed. Of the capacity of VICPOL to find the body, I have no doubt that they will. People are convicted of murder without a body, it happens , not a lot, but it happens enough to be comfortable with that outcome.

It is just as apparent that he has made one, or possibly more than one colossal , monumental error, or errors, because there he sits, under arrest for murder, so somewhere he has slipped up, either by talking, ( 3 can keep a secret , if 2 are dead , Benjamin Franklin) or he has been overcome with his own 'artwork' and filmed the entire thing and sent it on, I do think VICPOL are smarter than him. on any day of the week. VICPOL know the error he has made, which is why they are in no doubt that she is not only dead, but murdered, a double down of irreversible claims that VICPOL does not usually engage in.
Click to expand...
Good take Trooper- however, how the heck can he manage, being allegedly coming off a bender? I know being impaired makes people make hideous mistakes with life threatening consequences
1) could that have been the catalyst
2) could it be possible that mistakes were made because of alleged impairment
3) adding, I agree with you too

 
Hi - new member here!

Just as some food for thought, I am 24 and local to Ballarat.

So as a similar age to the accused aswell as being local, I have absolutely no idea where the mineshafts are in the area, and have walked/driven through the area many times. I'm not sure that the accused would have any idea also where the mineshafts are also unless family members do gold detecting or something?

MOO
 
OptimusLime said:
Good take Trooper- however, how the heck can he manage, being allegedly coming off a bender? I know being impaired makes people make hideous mistakes with life threatening consequences
1) could that have been the catalyst
2) could it be possible that mistakes were made because of alleged impairment
3) adding, I agree with you too

Click to expand...
Right now, the 'bender' is not what the police say. Not saying it isn't correct, but it is also, perhaps something that people say because it's too hard to think of someone doing this if they are NOT on a bender.. that they could do it stone cold.. But people can do these kind of things without any artificial jacking up. Sad to say. Until the coppers give a nod to the drugs and alcohol and what not, ... .
 
I also have a question for Aristotle Picket from the end of the last thread:

You seem to be convinced the area was not accessible by cars. Can you clarify what area and why you think this? I am not a local but have viewed the Recreation Rd/Boak Rd area (which I believe is the key area of interest, where the alleged "incident" appears to have taken place) on street view, and it certainly looks like Rec Rd at least is a through road for cars. Boak looks like a rougher road, but definitely still drivable, with some tracks off it. The fact someone else mentioned there are now cameras in the area to try and stop illegal dumping of goods suggests cars can access these locations. It looks quite feasible to me that Samantha could have been on a path that comes out at Rec Rd (as per street view) and possibly been hit by a car, or told off a driver driving too fast and a road rage incident occurring.
 
OptimusLime said:
Good take Trooper- however, how the heck can he manage, being allegedly coming off a bender? I know being impaired makes people make hideous mistakes with life threatening consequences
1) could that have been the catalyst
2) could it be possible that mistakes were made because of alleged impairment
3) adding, I agree with you too

Click to expand...
I would be interested to know exactly how much alcohol/cocaine/anything else he actually consumed that night, and if it was a regular indulgence for him. I'm amazed at how many people are regular heavy drinkers and/or drug users but still function well enough at work and in their personal lives that no one suspects how much they're using. "Bender" also makes it sound like he was indulging to the point of incapacitation, but that may not be reality.

This article about high-functioning drug users is spot on with my experience having friends and colleagues who regularly came to work and functioned pretty much flawlessly after a night of heavy drinking and drug use that would probably put my lightweight behind in a coma: My secret life as a high-functioning drug user

IMO, MOO, etc., etc.
 
drsleuth said:
www.abc.net.au

There are countless mineshafts in the area searched for signs of Samantha Murphy. This is what it's like inside them

Raymond Shaw says he has spent the past five-and-a-half weeks uncovering and exploring disused mine shafts in a determined effort to find anything that helps locate the Ballarat mum.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

Mr Shaw said he had located at least 100 mineshafts during his searches in Ballarat bushland during the past five weeks and he had been down about 60.
Click to expand...
Huge thanks to Mr Shaw for doing this, it gives us hope that all this difficult searching can be done, and that Samantha will eventually be found.
 
pawpatrol14 said:
Hi - new member here!

Just as some food for thought, I am 24 and local to Ballarat.

So as a similar age to the accused aswell as being local, I have absolutely no idea where the mineshafts are in the area, and have walked/driven through the area many times. I'm not sure that the accused would have any idea also where the mineshafts are also unless family members do gold detecting or something?

MOO
Click to expand...
Welcome, I look forward to your insight as a local.

I'd ask whether you're an outdoor type though? The alleged appears to be - camping, 4WDing, into motor bikes etc so may have a much better understanding of the bush.
 
The mods deleted my post because it wasn’t a direct quote from the academic article . But if you are interested it’s all online, the research on concealment of a body and the percentage of that occurrence in murder cases and the psychological reasoning behind it is very interesting. It explains the psychological mechanisms of this type of alleged murder and why concealment is so telling. IMO

Hope this revision doesn’t break the rules.please let me know if it does and I will delete thanks
 
OptimusLime said:
Good take Trooper- however, how the heck can he manage, being allegedly coming off a bender? I know being impaired makes people make hideous mistakes with life threatening consequences
1) could that have been the catalyst
2) could it be possible that mistakes were made because of alleged impairment
3) adding, I agree with you too

Click to expand...
I’m interested too in what’s possible subconsciously in this regard…
Several academics they have talked to on the news reports also mention the “comfort zone” and how certain things are possible in that.

Some articles I’ve scanned over - interesting info
time.com

Here's What Happens in Your Brain When You Kill

There's a lot of neuroscience and moral juggling behind the decision to take a life
time.com time.com
medium.com

The underlying subconscious behind murders

When a specific event of a caliber of murder takes place, the first thing that comes across the mind is the question of ‘why?’. And when it…
medium.com medium.com
 
HoneyBunOne said:
Welcome, I look forward to your insight as a local.

I'd ask whether you're an outdoor type though? The alleged appears to be - camping, 4WDing, into motor bikes etc so may have a much better understanding of the bush.
Click to expand...
I would say definitely into that kind of stuff, not so much motorbikes though and that's definitely a possibility! We have seen a case in Ballarat not too long ago where they found the deceased in a mineshaft. Definitely not disregarding it! I'm interested in the bodies of water though. If a car is involved, I can't imagine the accused leaving SM in the area, especially because the search began so quickly.

**Edit assuming the car had some kind of evidence if the car was seized.
 
pawpatrol14 said:
I would say definitely into that kind of stuff, not so much motorbikes though and that's definitely a possibility! We have seen a case in Ballarat not too long ago where they found the deceased in a mineshaft. Definitely not disregarding it! I'm interested in the bodies of water though. If a car is involved, I can't imagine the accused leaving SM in the area, especially because the search began so quickly.

**Edit assuming the car had some kind of evidence if the car was seized.
Click to expand...
Yeah, a body of water is definitely somewhere she could be. My money is on Soapy's Dam, based on recent requests for CCTV in that area.
 
I am thinking about some other cases.

Baden Clay
Boris Ristevski
Rick Thorborn

These guys went to places quite away from their houses - but they also had possibly more time to put this in action - some overnight.JMO

PS - we don't know if he had the whole day to himself or if he had to meet up with other people?

Being Sunday and 22 he possibly had no firm plans or obligations or had less scrutiny of where he was?

Also he could have had opportunity on another day to change locations. IMO

But I assume that he might think about SM - her family would possibly be looking out for her at some point - so he needs to leave the area. Did he feel he needed to be well and truly out of the area by 9.00am??? JMO

I guess if the watch started up a countdown or alarm - possibly he reacted by utilising a mine shaft.

Did he stay in the Plantation area past 8.00 am and for how long?


I am also stuck on - If SM jogged from her place leaving at 7.00am and jogged to Recreation Road I feel she would have got there before 8.00am.

Makes me think she encountered him further up closer to her house - and closer to 7.00am JMO

Could PS have driven to the 3rd Location first near Butt Street and Elsworth St - to get something he would later need?? Get his bike from there? - MOO
 
Last edited:
SouthAussie said:
The cadaver dogs are loaned out to other states when needed. I posted a couple of links way back in the thread about cases where my state and Victoria both used cadaver dogs on loan from the two states who have them.

imo

ETA: This is the link to my previous post about it.

www.websleuths.com

Australia - Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

Specialist Search Dogs. Not sure if this has been brought up and is still correct but according to this article and the Vic Pol website, Cadaver police search dogs are only located in NSW & QLD. Vic Pol use German Shepherds . Cadaver dogs...
www.websleuths.com www.websleuths.com
Click to expand...
thank you, i do remember us discussing the dogs they were using and their accuracy but cant find any confirmation they used actual cadaver dogs? or just regular search dogs?
 
Trooper said:
The longer this goes on, the more inclined I am to believe that this was plannned and executed with a lot of rehearsal. That he had a place to dispose of the body before he murdered her, and that it is either underground or underwater or under a building that has not been on the radar. or else it would have been exposed by now. I think it's fair to say the body is not out in the open. And not near any horse farms, either, horses are particularly sensitive to (a) strangers in their paddock and (b) strange bodies in their paddocks ...

So either he is extremely lucky, or he planned and meticulously processed this whole matter, over and over again to get it right. There is, apparently, not much of any other sort of scenario, really...

However, VICPOL have gone toe to toe with other murderers of the same mind set, and eventually justice prevailed. Of the capacity of VICPOL to find the body, I have no doubt that they will. People are convicted of murder without a body, it happens , not a lot, but it happens enough to be comfortable with that outcome.

It is just as apparent that he has made one, or possibly more than one colossal , monumental error, or errors, because there he sits, under arrest for murder, so somewhere he has slipped up, either by talking, ( 3 can keep a secret , if 2 are dead , Benjamin Franklin) or he has been overcome with his own 'artwork' and filmed the entire thing and sent it on, I do think VICPOL are smarter than him. on any day of the week. VICPOL know the error he has made, which is why they are in no doubt that she is not only dead, but murdered, a double down of irreversible claims that VICPOL does not usually engage in.
Click to expand...

I think it's premeditated and it's been rehearsed

Too much planning from the beginning to the end has gone into this
 
Nifty said:
I think it's premeditated and it's been rehearsed

Too much planning from the beginning to the end has gone into this
Click to expand...
Yes - I feel he's seen SM in this area before when he's been taking shortcuts driving between properties and when motorbike riding.

I am leaning towards he's been contemplating something and setting up how he could mastermind it. IMO

I wonder if PS may have done some thieving at SM's business or some other other low grade criminal activity in the past.JMO

All that past plane searching activity has just really been in a long line up and down that one particular area from Eureka Street down to Buninyong. MOO
 
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