Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #2

Do any of the police reports or info you have mention mud from the killer's shoes at all? Especially around any potential entrance location (bathroom window, door into Rei's room, or the front door). Since the killer kept his shoes on, surely there was at least one partial footprint that may have had mud/dirt.
Yes, we know the killer was walking in the mud outside the house (at the rear exterior) as his footprints are there. I've never seen confirmation that his muddy footprints were inside the house but I think it's a fairly safe bet that there will be some trace of that mud, at least, inside the house. What I think is a very safe bet is that the mud was not in the window of the bathroom otherwise it would look like a pretty clear case of 2+2=4.

I also think it's quite possible there were footprints on the top of the car. And obviously, many, many footprints throughout the house in blood pools.
Could An's family have heard noises but dismissed them as coming from the tv in the Miyazawa home? And then maybe had survivor's guilt?
Very possible, yes. As I say, (and have said many times), I simply have no idea and I have zero basis to accuse anyone of anything. I can only say categorically that this was tested and remains troubling to both the Chief and his colleagues. Why exactly that is, I don't know. But it feels entirely reasonable to assume that's on the basis of the experiments they did and not simply on some hunch. I will say the Chief told me a lot of things off the record which sadly I can't share. But beyond that, there were also things he would not tell me. Gun to the head, I think he has some suspicions about untruths -- not necessarily connected to the murders, perhaps -- but at any rate, that goes nowhere so there it stays.
 
I seem to remember when reading Monazite’s blog he had an article that said there were some muddy footprints either close to or in Rei’s bedroom I think. I’d have to go and dig again for it though, or maybe Nic has the accurate answer!
Yes, I recall him mentioning the mud. I don't know if that was ever backed up, I don't think so. Certainly, the most footprints were concentrated in Rei's room, that is 100% accurate. I thought those prints were in blood. Side point: if the killer did indeed enter / exit via that balcony, it would explain his repeated access of the room. JMO
 
People might be "less than perfect witnesses in a criminal investigation", and yet innocent.
Absolutely, I think this is entirely possible. How many times have we seen the police catching someone in a lie and assuming that lie = guilt, when in reality, it merely equals a lie. Nobody is a paragon of absolute truth, so it stands to reason.
- per TMPD, one person was in Miyazawa's house, one person left tons of DNA, one person killed them. TMPD was probably "inexperienced with murders, but willing to learn".
RSBM: I would strongly disagree the TMPD is inexperienced with murders. Of course, the number of cases they receive is far, far lower than a city of such a magnitude anywhere else on earth. But I know these investigators were experienced. I think the key is, inexperienced in this type of murder. Not that home invasion murders, seemingly for no reason, are common anywhere. I also have a problem with (not that you are doing this but others have) the idea that not clearing a case being a reflection on the work of LE. Just as sometimes a killer will hand themselves in to the police and confess, this wouldn't mean LE have done a bad job. So, I want to stress (as I have many times), I have my questions about certain choices made in this investigation as is natural for anyone undertaking a journalistic investigation of a cold case. But I have utmost respect for the men and women of the TMPD, and specifically, the investigative team at Seijo PD.
I suspect they collected a lot of information and perhaps somehow "drowned" in it, because lack of experience = you can't rely on own intuition.
Yes, I do know that the amount of evidence and the lack of an apparent motive was a problem in the investigation.
At the same time, since they have extended the time of criminal responsibility, their perfectionism will probably serve them and the case well now, if/when they finally get the courage and break through "the DNA barrier." (They have to, in view of new immigration laws, and the sooner, the better for Japan - JMO.)
Given the latest out of the Setagaya Council, this seems possible. Though, as Ryushi says, change is glacial in Japan. Let's hope there's some movement on the DNA front while Setsuko is still with us. [NB: I fully understand DNA concerns in terms of ethics. I also entirely understand the problems inherent in granting yet more powers to one of the most powerful police forces on earth. But in certain limited cases of unsolved murder where all other avenues have been exhausted, I think an exception is valid and just].
- if it was one person and his DNA did not match the ones from the Iries' house, this rules them out as the suspects. Let us accept this.
It is absolutely accepted. They were fingerprinted immediately. They did not match.
- About the rest. Can a person sleep through that night/not hear the murders? It is possible. I have several very trivial explanations and i can accept this. In fact, I would not be surprised if Haruko was the first to get up that morning, either.
It is absolutely possible. This would have been part of those experiments. If it was not possible from the jump, there would have been no need for any experiments.
That morning, though...everywhere, in any country, this family, the neighbors would inevitably end up being high on the suspects list. This is not the situation I wish upon anyone. Let this sink in, too. How they felt the "morning after". Hysterical, grieving and scared.
I have zero reasons to suspect, nor have I heard of a single piece of evidence that supports, that there is a motive to question the 45/50 minute gap between discovery and calling the police. We don't even know if, for example, Haruko was absolutely correct when she said she went to the Miyazawa door at 10am. That could have simply been the last time she checked the time she then lost track of, and went to the door at 10:20am, for example.
Worst of all? IRL, if you sleep through the murders, you can account only for yourself. What about other people in your family? Sadly, you slept through their movements, too.

So...I don't think anyone lied. But i think that everyone, subconsciously or consciously, was protecting other family members. I think they all were finally cleared for a good reason, and felt relieved when it happened, but it took some time to clear them.

And btw, if they don't know who did it, and I think they don't, they might still be living in fear for themselves. What if the killer, indeed, confused the houses?

One more reason for TMPD to do consider DNA criminology.
Yes, absolutely possible. As you know, @Charlot123, I believe the killer left the country. But that won't exactly be of any relevance or comfort to them. And even if they themselves believe he's gone, imagine the trauma of such a man being that close to you while destroying your kin. The survivor's guilt, and so on. To clarify, which I have done a thousand times, I accuse them of nothing, I say only there are questions still to be answered and things that do not make sense. This is not my opinion, this is how it is. Now, it's entirely possible they have nothing further to answer as far as the TMPD are concerned. If that's so, it was not relayed to me.
 
Observed from a distance, perhaps?

Since we haven't ruled out the chance of the killer being the animal-torturer, and I haven't, (maybe not the poster of those ugly things on pet boards, but someone doing it in the Setagaya park), could the person have come to progress to a child?
There is very little we can rule out about the killer at this stage. Legally speaking, we can absolutely rule him out in terms of the cat killings / torturing that was going on in Soshigaya Park. That man was arrested and convicted (though he maintains his innocence). Given the inherent problems with a conviction rate in Japan of 99.9999% (this is not my opinion by the way, this is a cold fact), then we're left with the possibility of him being innocent. But yes, I would imagine the killer had not been an angel for his entire life before the night of these murders. Now, I do think it's a total stereotype that he had to have killed / killed subsequently. This is, at least, the opinion of the experts in the academic field of criminal behaviour I spoke to.
Another possibility - I looked at the photos from that evening. They seem to be made on an instant camera. I checked - the Polaroid went out of business in 2000, maybe Fujifilm still was making them?

Does anyone know if instant cameras were still popular in Japan in 2000es?

Could it be possible that the thing the murderer was searching for was a photo? His photo?
It's very possible he was looking for a trace of himself in the house. The problem is, we don't actually know if him dumping stuff in the bath tub meant he was looking for anything. Maybe he just felt like staging the robbery and did it poorly. Or maybe he was thinking of setting a fire to hide his evidence and decided it against it. Essentially, all of this is possible. If his photograph was in their house, though, and we're assuming a personal relationship, then it's one that has eluded 280,000 men and women across 24 years. This is, of course, possible. I have reason to believe, for example, that a man who history knows as Jack the Ripper, might well have had a passing recognition of at least some of the women he murdered. He too was never caught. So, it is possible. To me, at least, it's just more likely that there was no personal connection and that explains why the TMPD still haven't got him.
 
Re: searching for something, here’s an image of what the bathtub was found like. The image is from an official TMPD DVD released on the murder and is super bad quality.

I wonder if someone here could maybe enhance it somehow to make it clearer? I’m no good at that!

According to Monazite the things listed as dumped in the bathtub are:
Yasuko’s cram-school documents
The contents of Yasuko’s wallet
Mikio’s work documents and receipts
One of the towels used to stop the killer’s bleeding
One of the ice cream cups
Various flyers
Various family certificates

A lot of it has been ripped up and thrown in. Monazite also says there were other things in there in addition.

It certainly does appear as though the killer was looking for something.

In addition here is what some of the drawers looked like, again taken from the TMPD DVD:


Thoughts?
I'm fairly sure that what ended up in that bath was the contents of the top 1-2 draws in the cabinet above Mikio's body (which I think is across from the cabinet in the crime scene photo)? As well as the contents of Yasuko's bag. Also, she had money and, I'm fairly sure, 'valuables', which he left untouched. As I said to Charlot, we could absolutely read these actions as searching which necessitates a goal. But then if you're searching for something you dumped into the tub, we throw in the bloody towel or empty cups? We could say that he did that subsequent to searching in the tub but then why bring the cups from the front room where he ate them to the bathroom? I'm not saying he wasn't looking for something specific. Just that I'm not sure we have enough about him (or maybe too much) to solidly say it was something connected to Mikio / Yasuko / the kids / none at all. I'm going with the last one in the absence of the rest.
 
I know there were no drugs found in the killers system but is it possible he was looking for drugs?
I can't discount this but the Miyazawa home wouldn't necessarily look like an obvious place to find drugs? Unless he knew something about them which brings us back to the problem of him knowing them and the police overlooking that connection. It's also possible he wasn't in his right mind but, as you say, nothing was in his system. So, he might well have been mentally unstable but, if he was, he shows self-preservation throughout the night at various points.
 
Do Japanese citizens upload their DNA into databases in much the same way as other countries do? I'm asking because of how much the Japanese value their privacy and so forth.
There is very, very little use for these databases in Japan. Ryushi (my Japanese producer for FACELESS) made the point that not only are they're not particularly helpful --Japanese people don't need 23andMe to tell them they are Japanese on one of the most ethnically homogenous places on earth-- but also certain people might not be too pleased to find out there have some kind of other ethnic background.

And then, as you say, there is the issue of privacy being sacred there etc. Basically, I don't think Gedmatch is going to open up over there any time soon.
 
Just to be absolutely clear, I don't think the Iries are guilty of anything more than, perhaps, wanting to protect the Miyazawas privacy and dignity.

But.

If, as the TMPD think, it makes no sense that the Iries didn't hear anything, then they would have to be lying when they say they didn't hear anything. They're either telling the truth as they remember it or they're not. I find the Iries story quite believable, but others seemingly don't.

Personally I think it's quite possible they slept through the whole thing exactly as they say they did, and have spent the last few pages trying to defend the idea that they might not have heard anything.
Yes, I didn't take your posts as belief of any kind of guilt, @Interested_But_Confused.

But I guess I would make the distinction that it doesn't have to be this binary. An not wanting to tell the TMPD something doesn't make her a liar, for example. Now, if someone says they didn't hear a scream when they did due to that reason, technically they are lying, yes. But it doesn't make them Charles Ponzi. If that makes sense.

My own opinion is that I simply don't know. As I've said a thousand times, I find it harder to imagine silence as three people are stabbed to death than the alternative, but I could be spectacularly wrong. I have only spoken to one party in this equation and I don't think he / his colleagues would have any reason to say there was a concern when there wasn't.
 
Yes, I didn't take your posts as belief of any kind of guilt, @Interested_But_Confused.

But I guess I would make the distinction that it doesn't have to be this binary. An not wanting to tell the TMPD something doesn't make her a liar, for example. Now, if someone says they didn't hear a scream when they did due to that reason, technically they are lying, yes. But it doesn't make them Charles Ponzi. If that makes sense.

My own opinion is that I simply don't know. As I've said a thousand times, I find it harder to imagine silence as three people are stabbed to death than the alternative, but I could be spectacularly wrong. I have only spoken to one party in this equation and I don't think he / his colleagues would have any reason to say there was a concern when there wasn't.

I guess my main issue is with the TMPD. I can appreciate that they don't want to upset the family, but when searching for a brutal mass murderer, that can only go so far. If the TMPD have any reason to suspect the Iries aren't telling the whole truth (irrespective of what they're hiding or why) then the TMPD have things they could do to make the Iries talk. They could arrest them for obstruction, for example.

For the TMPD to say the Iries' story doesn't make sense, but then seemingly do nothing to *make it make sense*... it's puzzling.

It's understandable that the TMPD don't want to put the family through any unnecessary suffering, but at the end of the day, they're trying to catch a killer. Even the smallest bit of information could potentially be the breakthrough the investigators need.
 
I guess my main issue is with the TMPD. I can appreciate that they don't want to upset the family, but when searching for a brutal mass murderer, that can only go so far. If the TMPD have any reason to suspect the Iries aren't telling the whole truth (irrespective of what they're hiding or why) then the TMPD have things they could do to make the Iries talk. They could arrest them for obstruction, for example.

For the TMPD to say the Iries' story doesn't make sense, but then seemingly do nothing to *make it make sense*... it's puzzling.

It's understandable that the TMPD don't want to put the family through any unnecessary suffering, but at the end of the day, they're trying to catch a killer. Even the smallest bit of information could potentially be the breakthrough the investigators need.
Yes, I totally agree with the sentiment here. But I think this is one of the complexities about the case being in Japan. I don't know if you saw when I posted a few weeks about about Namiko Takaba? Her widow is one of the main proponents of changing the DNA laws in Japan. He was central in the campaign for removing the statute of limitations for murder in Japan. He's all in on this topic. And yet, when the possibility of approaching him in the podcast was raised (to explore the subject of the DNA limitations) my Japanese producer got the strong sense that he would say no to our offer of help. To be clear, he likely would've loved to take us up on it, we were offering access to the latest technology and labs to look at the killer's DNA. But it could've risked alienating the local investigators. I think that's indicative of the complexity of dealing with that system -- I've lost count of the amount of times I heard the phrase: shou ga nai.

So, to bring this back to the Irie family, I have no idea about obstruction laws in Japan. And I have no idea if it was that certain things were not being divulged (even if those things had nothing to do with the crime). In terms of something not making sense and forcing it to -- we can only assume that any doubts never reached the level of certainty required to move forward. Then again, we can imagine the optics of arresting the family of the victims in order to 'make them talk.' Without an incredibly good reason, it's just never going happen. JMO
 
Re: searching for something, here’s an image of what the bathtub was found like. The image is from an official TMPD DVD released on the murder and is super bad quality.

I wonder if someone here could maybe enhance it somehow to make it clearer? I’m no good at that!

View attachment 497260

According to Monazite the things listed as dumped in the bathtub are:
Yasuko’s cram-school documents
The contents of Yasuko’s wallet
Mikio’s work documents and receipts
One of the towels used to stop the killer’s bleeding
One of the ice cream cups
Various flyers
Various family certificates

A lot of it has been ripped up and thrown in. Monazite also says there were other things in there in addition.

It certainly does appear as though the killer was looking for something.

In addition here is what some of the drawers looked like, again taken from the TMPD DVD:

View attachment 497261

Thoughts?

It would seem that
1) he was looking for something specific
2) he did not know where that something was kept so he went through all papers - so to me, it would seem that it wasn't something belonging to specifically Yasuko's or Mikio's folder. Something that could be placed in either.
3) Mikio, no offense, accumulated papers although he organized them well. Probably he kept papers in folders. So maybe, just maybe, it was something that didn't belong into a folder, and Mikio "hid" it, like people would "hide" by shoving something inside a stack of papers.

The way it looks, the murderer was not going through papers, he was “shaking” them to find that hidden piece. It was something slightly more heavy than a regular paper sheet.

Things that come to mind:

- a document of a passport-type
- a photo made by an instant camera (i remember Polaroid photos being heavier this is why I thought it could be it)
- a folded printout from a phone company- they used to mail them. Maybe some phone number that someone in the family was calling. Perhaps that list the person wanted to hide.
- a bank statement with some expenses
- for some odd reason, a medal comes to mind or a clip-on badge/pin

I don’t know when the closing day for the phone company is. I know that my cellular provider’s one is at the end of the month, but approximately one week before the 1st. So maybe, just maybe, it was something that was supposed to just arrive in the mail, so the perpetrator expected to find it easily and couldn’t?

BTW, the fact that Mikio was such a paper hoarder and everything in 2000 had a paper trail, makes me wonder if it was some receipt-related document. I hope that TMPD got the copies of phone statements and computer network carrier statements. The fact that the perp looked through the computer tells, to me, that the documents might be coming both in paper and electronic format, and maybe, not finding it among documents, the perp tried the electronic route.

I wonder if police looked at Mikio’s work office. I know he worked from home, but he could have hidden some papers in office, too.
 
Do Japanese citizens upload their DNA into databases in much the same way as other countries do? I'm asking because of how much the Japanese value their privacy and so forth.

They may not. But people of Japanese ancestry live anywhere in the world.

They’d better start, though. Their new immigration laws, besides able-bodied working people, might bring in new problems to Japan. So their PD should not only have access to genetic criminology, but establish contacts in the world. Genetic criminology requires dedication and perfectionism. In a generation, Japanese PD will become the best specialists in the area. They just need to start.
 
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I guess my main issue is with the TMPD. I can appreciate that they don't want to upset the family, but when searching for a brutal mass murderer, that can only go so far. If the TMPD have any reason to suspect the Iries aren't telling the whole truth (irrespective of what they're hiding or why) then the TMPD have things they could do to make the Iries talk. They could arrest them for obstruction, for example.

For the TMPD to say the Iries' story doesn't make sense, but then seemingly do nothing to *make it make sense*... it's puzzling.

It's understandable that the TMPD don't want to put the family through any unnecessary suffering, but at the end of the day, they're trying to catch a killer. Even the smallest bit of information could potentially be the breakthrough the investigators need.

Why should they arrest them? Maybe they know the details of what the Iries are protecting but don’t feel obliged to release it to the public?
When I read through another coverage of the case, a participant asked a question about one Miyazawa. It never came to my mind, but my instant reaction was, “yes, could be”. What if the Iries told the details of Miyazawas’ family life to the police, and that explains why they misinterpreted the sounds? The police is under no obligation to release everything to the world.
 
I'm fairly sure that what ended up in that bath was the contents of the top 1-2 draws in the cabinet above Mikio's body (which I think is across from the cabinet in the crime scene photo)? As well as the contents of Yasuko's bag. Also, she had money and, I'm fairly sure, 'valuables', which he left untouched. As I said to Charlot, we could absolutely read these actions as searching which necessitates a goal. But then if you're searching for something you dumped into the tub, we throw in the bloody towel or empty cups? We could say that he did that subsequent to searching in the tub but then why bring the cups from the front room where he ate them to the bathroom? I'm not saying he wasn't looking for something specific. Just that I'm not sure we have enough about him (or maybe too much) to solidly say it was something connected to Mikio / Yasuko / the kids / none at all. I'm going with the last one in the absence of the rest.

If there is one thing I feel about the killer, it is that he was unbelievably angry that day, and the anger did not subside after the killings. That rampage through the house doesn’t say, “cold-bloodied”. It says, “angry, angry, angry”. Was he angry with the Miyazawas or the world in general? I don’t know. But this high destroyer’s energy is felt. He is not a meek Goldilocks who got lost. I wonder what changed if he left the country and was able to fly under the radar? I think that maybe, “finally got on meds?” Or, “got a very steady GF and everything that comes with it”?
 
Really enjoyed this 3D tour of the layout of the house, and how the assailant probably moved through the house on the night of the murders. Discussion of the evidence in the case is much the same as we have been discussing on these threads. I was very impressed.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=JSsGmLApAr8
 
Don't know why the link isn't working.

Just go to YouTube...type in: The Setagaya Family Case
I just copied the link and pasted it into my browser and it worked fine.

This guy does a decent job of narrating / parsing the evidence. Also, I don’t find his voice annoying which is a rarity for these sorts of YouTube videos but that’s a Me Thing. He gets a great deal wrong to varying degrees but that’s to be expected when he’s leaning on the forums.

Obviously, I think he’s entirely wrong about the point of entry which I’ve explained many times. It would take me a long time to itemise but I would say my three main problems:

1) he’s making the classic claim that the killer is mixed race when this is absolutely not certain.

2) His dismissal of the military theory based on the use of a sashimi knife. A) That doesn’t account for military dependents. B) Being in the military doesn’t insulate someone from making mistakes or poor choices. C) He says he thinks the killer grew up in Japan based on very little (string beans?). Again, as I’ve said many times, I’ve eaten that dish too in Tokyo. It tells you nothing taken in isolation.

3) He suggests the motive may have been sexual. He’s just riffing at this point. I have been assured none of the bodies were interfered with in that manner, nor that there was any evidence their clothes or belongings were, and there was no semen found at the scene.
 
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Why should they arrest them? Maybe they know the details of what the Iries are protecting but don’t feel obliged to release it to the public?
When I read through another coverage of the case, a participant asked a question about one Miyazawa. It never came to my mind, but my instant reaction was, “yes, could be”. What if the Iries told the details of Miyazawas’ family life to the police, and that explains why they misinterpreted the sounds? The police is under no obligation to release everything to the world.

In many countries (I'm not sure about Japan) you can be arrested for lying to the police. If, and I stress IF the TMPD believe the Iries lied to them, they could probably have arrested them at the time. It would have been a controversial move, to be sure, and I suspect it would be beyond the statute of limitations now.

I could very easily believe the Iries have told the TMPD things they don't want to release.

The issue here is that the TMPD apparently think the Iries' story of not hearing anything doesn't make sense. If the Iries have told the TMPD private details of the Miyazawas' lives, things which explain the Iries' actions on the night in question, then why do the TMPD still have concerns about the Iries' story?

If the Iries had said something like, "We didn't do anything because we were used to hearing them fighting," that would be a perfectly logical explanation. An explanation the TMPD would likely have accepted. The TMPD probably wouldn't have released that information to the public, but they also wouldn't be saying they have lingering concerns about the Iries' version of events.

Everything suggests the TMPD believe the Iries *haven't* told them everything. Whether the TMPD are correct or not, I have no idea.
 
Yes, I recall him mentioning the mud. I don't know if that was ever backed up, I don't think so. Certainly, the most footprints were concentrated in Rei's room, that is 100% accurate. I thought those prints were in blood. Side point: if the killer did indeed enter / exit via that balcony, it would explain his repeated access of the room. JMO
Yes, that is my recollection as well. I even think they were in blood and sideways, like the guy was creeping along trying not to be seen. At least that is what I remember.
 
Catching up on recent posts, one question that did cross my mind is what would the killer have done if Yasuko’s sister and brother in-law, two more able-bodied adults, did hear the noise and responded or came over at the time of Mikio’s attack? Would he have bolted? Would he have been able to flee or would he have been trapped?

Why target Rey first when he was asleep and unaware of the killer’s presence? Shouldn’t he have quietly gone to attack one of the parents, such as Mikio who was alone in his office, first since as adults they posed the biggest threat to him? Attacking Rei is what led to Mikio becoming aware of the killer’s presence and perhaps fighting back earlier than the killer expected?

I agree this is most likely the perp’s first kill and perhaps they had an exaggerated perception of their own skills in defense and yielding a knife? The brutal way he attacked this family could indicate rage or perhaps a frenzy because the killer didn’t have the knowledge or skill in terms of the most vulnerable places to attack the human body to debilitate or kill a victim using the fewer strikes. Perhaps he began striking blindly as he became frustrated, overwhelmed and perhaps conflicted with guilt, shame and disgust as he took in the gruesomeness and horror of his crimes?

I do wonder though if this perp has a history of breaking and entering or intruding into other people’s homes? Perhaps this is one of, if not the first, times the residents were present in the home or at least awake during the intrusions? I wonder if he does has a record somewhere or if there is a case in which his B&E was thwarted or he fled because he did not anticipated getting spotted or he was not prepared to fight off others?

Maybe consuming the tea and ice cream before looking on the computer was his way to self-soothe as he came down from shock or denial or subconsciously began to confront irreversible murders and crimes he just committed?

I wonder if the killer was lucky or protected, perhaps by family or loved ones, who are also struggling to accept what the perp did? Perhaps they had the means and time to get him out of the country shortly afterwards and in denial never talked about it again afterwards and encouraged the perp not only to never to return back to Japan but maybe avoid discussion of his time there in general?
 

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