I'm am split on this one. Having focused on the parents since day one, I'm now going to play devil's advocate a moment:
I think the father was in a recliner* (wasn't that said before? Or was that just someone speculating?). If so, then little Joshua could easily have been behind the chair and reached his dad's beanie. And - it's possible the dad fell asleep/dozed off longer than he thought, just as I think the mom did. I'm also wondering if the timeline could be off if little Joshua had done pulled on the beanie earlier in the night at a different time. The reason I bring up these points is that it would leave someone else in the home a larger timeframe to work with.
Having said that, I still think something is off with the parents' stories (or at least one of them) and that is why LE is looking so closely - i.e., the reported three polys the dad took. I still think it's also possible that little Joshua was not in the house that night - but the guests were told he was back in the bedroom or whatever.
So if he didn't wander off and it was not a stranger abduction, then it must be one of the following:
1) parents and it happened that night (the time-frame is really narrow here)
2) parents and it happened before that night
3) someone else in the home that night (again, narrow time-frame unless mom/dad's guesses are off regarding the times they last saw him)
4) accident and he's still stuck somewhere there (I think he would have been found by now)
But what is "it" that was done? Harmed and, sadly, died or was killed? Or... sold? I think anyone would agree that he is a little doll baby. But that takes connections and probably something planned out well in advance.
I mean, really, there just aren't they many options, kwim?
(I do have a hard time believing that if the mom knows something bad happened, that she didn't go into premature labor at this point. I'm surprised she hasn't already, with this type of stress...)
*ETA: Regarding the dad being in a recliner, the only thing I have found is speculation here on WS, so that may not be true:
Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - TX TX - Joshua Davis, 18 months, New Braunfels, 4 Feb 2011 - #1
Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - TX TX - Joshua Davis, 18 months, New Braunfels, 4 Feb 2011 - #2