scandi
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OK, here's my theory. Some of you probably know this already, but for those of you who don't...
Our SK lives in Manorville, close to the dump site (within 3-4 miles). He's a duck hunter and a long-time, active member of a certain Waterfowlers Association. Through this association, he's familiar with Cedar Beach given their annual duckboat festival held every year at Cedar Beach, and at Gilgo Beach in 2000. This Association also practices shooting shotgun at a shooting range next to the Manorville dump site.
He is a meticulous and professional hunter, almost to the point of obsession, and he takes great pride in his duck hunting abilities. These abilities include concealment using burlap camo and luring ducks to his killing fields using duck calls and his expertly painted decoys.
He stands out as a leader among these hunters. He doesn't really have a 9-5 job, and he makes money doing odds and ends, like landscaping, which is why he's intimately familiar with the Manorville dump site near the sump. He's illegally dumped branches from yard clearings before. He even chose to throw JT's body on a pile of sticks dumped by a landscaper - this pile of sticks was possibly even dumped by himself. Illegal dumping is kind of his thing. If he wasn't intimately familiar with this very specific area of Manorville, it would have been impossible for him to be able to find it a second time in 2003, especially if it was dark.
He has a typical serial killer family history. He was emotionally torn apart from a broken childhood. He was an only child, his parents are divorced and his father was absent for most of his childhood, staying away from the home as much as possible due to the violent and abusive tendencies of his mother. His mother was abusive and domineering at home and had a set of bizarre rules and punishments that she learned from her mother.
His mother herself was abused by her mother, who was also abused as a child. The history of family abuse ran the gamut - mental, physical and sexual. He idolized a non-father male relative (also a duck hunter, I'm guessing). This person died suddenly and prematurely, and he came to blame a woman for his untimely death. He became the hunter, both literally and figuratively, and he subconsiusly seeks to avenge his male role model by hurting a certain type of woman - someone who uses sex as a way to make money. This vengeance somehow fills the emotional void that he still experiences today.
He has a history of non-traditional sexual behavior, primarily experimenting with homosexuality, crossdressing, sex with transvetites, prostitutes and maybe even bestiality or S&M. His sexual tendencies lead him to NYC on occasion where he can shop for exotic *advertiser censored* and hang out in video booths where he can meet his sexual needs away from his family and without being noticed or out of the ordinary.
He occasionally picks up prostitutes from the street, but given his lack of financial resources he usually just fantasizes about picking them up and killing them so he doesn't have to pay for sex. He mostly just wants to show these "*advertiser censored*" what a man he's become, but really inside he's still a 13 year old kid who's emotional maturity was stunted by his completely screwed up family.
He started with Jane Doe 2000. He met her in NYC, killed her in his car by strangulation and drove her back to where he was comfortable - in Marorville, back by the power lines where noone would see him as he dismembered her like a duck.
The initial act of murder was not premeditated, rather he just acted on an impulse and lived out his fantasy. He dismembered her on-the-fly because he was worried about her identification. He knew he had somehow left a trail, and he didn't want anyone to know that some girl from NYC ended up dead in his hometown / hunting spot. Perhaps his wife knew he was in NYC that day. Perhaps he was worried about using EZ-Pass through the Midtown tunnel, and was worried about security cameras. I think it's likely that in order to "cover" for where he was that night, he told his wife that he went to scout some bird hunting areas down by the beach for his upcoming hunt in November. He had actually in fact been down to Cedar Beach that night, but it wasn't to scout - it was to discard JD2000's head and hands in the bushes. He knew these bushes were impenetrable because he'd spent time in the Cedar Beach parking lot at the annual duckboat show.
He reflected on the whole experience and sexually fantasized about it for years. He returned to Cedar Beach in 2001 and 2002 and, as he stared into the bushes, he realized he'd committed a crime that was extremely difficult to solve, if anyone even cared to solve it at all.
It wasn't until 2003 when he committed his first premeditated murder. He planned much more carefully. He had the dismemberment site planned out. He had the dump sites in Manorville and Cedar Beach all planned out. He had the pickup spot planned out - the same general area in NYC where he found JD2000. He had the kill site in NYC planned out.
After Jessica Taylor, he stopped killing for awhile. He felt the heat this time. It was on the news, it was the talk of the town, they quickly discovered her identity. He slowed way down, paid more attention to his family, and he especially paid more attention to his hobby/sport.
Sometime between 2003 and 2005 or so, he runs across the UID woman and Baby Doe. Same M.O. for pickup spot, kill site and dismemberment site - different dump site because she's African American, and he's racist although not so much when it comes to sex and murder. Next up: the Asian male, picked up somewhere in NYC. The thought of dismembering someone of the same sex disgusts him, so he just dumps the entire body. He doesn't want to, but he uses the same dump site because it just works. It's a revelation, because here's when he comes to realize that he doesn't need to dismember at all.
I'll note that it is possible that he went on a murder spree in Atlantic City during a month-long scouting/hunting trip in October/November 2006 in one of the finest waterfowl hunting areas in the world, Absecon Bay. Seeing that he annually attends a NJ duck show, its quite possible that he planned this trip for some time, and he brought with him his nasty little sickness.
If it wasn't him in 2006 in Atlantic City, then it wasn't until 2007 that his fantasies started in earnest again. He needed to alleviate his emotional emptiness. He'd finally become somewhat adept at using the Internet, possibly from having to set up his computer for a teen child, or from having to reinstall everything due to viruses from surfing *advertiser censored*. His extent of computer literacy is really limited to just checking his duck hunting sites, his e-mail and Craigslist.
Because he lacks financial resources, he constantly uses Craigslist to buy and sell stuff, mostly hunting gear. He also uses it as a way to find work, mostly odd jobs like painting, yard work and handy-man type home repair. He frequently tries to get odd jobs in NYC. He can't stay away from sex ads - they're better than *advertiser censored* - his fantasies continue as he begins to plan his next murder. He's graduated from "street" prostitutes and is looking for someone more attractive and not into drugs - more his "type".
He uses a public computer at a car wash, a local hotel or a NYC internet cafe to quickly browse some NYC provider ads. He jots down a number or two that pique his interest. Then he waits. He waits for weeks, maybe even a month or more. Then he calls, when the time is right. He uses a disposable phone that he bought months previously in NYC, probably on the same day that he checked the Craigslist listings. He used cash while wearing a disguise (hat, hoodie and glasses).
The first online victim he chooses is from NYC. He's still using his old basic M.O. He makes the trip to meet up with Maureen in NYC, who he meets and kills in the same spot as JD2000, JT, the Asian male and the UID female. He wraps her in camo burlap that he's had the foresight to bring from his garage - he's planned a full body disposal for the first time. He needs to keep the body hidden from aerial scavengers like crows. He doesn't want them making a scene, and he knows that ducks can't see burlap from the sky. He doesn't really need the camo because hunting season doesn't begin until November. At the kill site in NYC, he puts her in the back of his truck and drives directly from NYC to Cedar Beach, using the 59th St. bridge instead of the tunnel to avoid the cameras and tolls. He doesn't need to dismember her this time because nobody will ever find her. Dismembering is messy and time consuming, and it was always just a forensic countermeasure. It doesn't make any sense to dismember her if he believes she'll never be found anyway.
Hunting season comes in late 2007, and he picks up a lot of burlap this year. It's not out of the ordinary. He's at the apex of his hunting career now. Perhaps he's a professional duck hunting guide, and he needs lots of burlap in case his "city slicker" clients don't have their own when he takes them into the field. He's probably using Advantage 4H-D Camo, or he's buying it virgin by the roll and painting it himself. After all, he's a real hunter, and he's constantly painting decoys for himself and for his hunting pals. Which is part of the reason why they respect him so much - he's such an expert. Only he himself knows that he has another reason for buying so much burlap. He's committed the perfect crime, and he knows he can do it again and again.
He does, once in 2009 and twice in 2010. By 2010, he's decided to avoid going to the city. Too much hassle, too much risk - takes too long. He's choosing women from towns far enough away from Manorville but closer to the dump site to decrease his overall risk. He never seen anything in the news when the girls go missing, so he's not even slightly afraid of choosing Long Island girls. He's even found a kill spot closer to the dump site, perhaps in the Cedar Beach parking lot itself. It only takes a few short minutes to kill anyway. He's returned to the Cedar Beach parking lot dozens of times, both during the day and at night. He knows how to get around the gate. He knows that cops never go there past dark. And he knows that there's noone around to hear a scream. He can take his time, savor the moment. Watch their pain. He loves inflicting physical and emotional pain.
He inflicts physical and emotional pain on women just as the women in his youth inflicted physical and emotional pain upon him. That's why he called Amanda Barthelemy when he found out that Melissa had a cell phone on her as he went through his undressing ritual at the kill site. This was the first time he discovered a cell phone on a victim. The other victims didn't use cell phones because they were street workers. Maureen didn't have one because she was using a pay phone and probably lost her phone when she was robbed. He kept Melissa's phone and decided to torment Amanda as he walked about the city one day search of *advertiser censored* and sex. After Melissa, he was on a mental high - he fel invincible. At the time of the calls to Amanda, he was probably hanging around at his old kill site in NYC to relive those old murders just before he "ducked" into one of those "hole in the wall" video booths after unsuccessfully trolling for street prostitutes. Risky sex is one of the few things that keeps his emotions at bay, and it gives him the high he needs to feel alive - just like hunting, just like murder.
In May 2010, he doesn't realize that Shannan Gilbert has mysteriously disappeared just a few miles from his perfect dump site, so he dumps Megan and Amber there in June and September. Unbeknownst to him, the SCPD was down there - Officer Malia and his dog, Blue. Whether it was a training exercise or they were actually looking for Shannan, who knows. But the bodies were fresh enough that the Blue picked up the scent easily. His perfect dump site was found.
Shannan died of accidental causes, but her death sparked a million different theories. Investigators became sidetracked, and the killer had time and luck on his side. He'd been cautious, and it paid off.
But he's been completely stressed out and depressed since December 2010, possibly having nightmares and wishing he'd been able to stop himself. He's probably considered suicide as an option if the police get near. But he's got a wife and at least one kid. Amongst his hunting pals, he's trying desparately to look like there's nothing amiss. After all, his buddies must think its strange that at least 2 bodies were placed at the exact two locations that they go to every a year - Cedar Beach and Halsey Rd. in Manorville. "What a coincidence!", they must say. But this person fits in so well, he's so respected as a duck hunter and a pal that it doesn't even cross their mind that he's the killer. He's been able to hide his deep dark secret his whole life. He's been able to hide his identity from the police. He's been able to hide his perverse sexuality. In actuality, he's been hiding his past from everyone for his entire life.
Very Interesting Inspectr, I just wanted your off the cuff thought about this. If you were to walk up close to this guy in say, a store, and he turned around and looked you in the face, how would you describe him to us?
His demeanor, look in his eyes, how dressed, tall or not, stocky, clean shaven - just what you think this guy would be like in person. Ta
