IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #5

[katydid23]

9 days after the abduction they ask for people to come forward if they were at the lake on the 13th. Just sloppy police work going on here.

I am not sure that is the case about sloppy police work. We were saying the same things on the Sierra Lamar forum, criticizing LE for being incompetent, and then we found out they had been following a suspect and knew who he was for a couple of weeks already. So they might know more than we are giving them credit for.

In the Sierra case, LE showed a picture of a red car with a black hood, and asked if anyone had seen it around Morgan Hill. Everyone tried to figure out who owned one like that, and we criticized LE for not knowing already. It turned out they already had the car in custody, knew it was the vehicle used in her kidnapping, and they just wanted to know where else he was driving around, in hopes of finding her body.

 

[BlueIris]

Confirmed that there was a woman threatening suicide (see link) but it was in the river, not the lake as the poster stated. The article states it is not related to the missing girls, however, the comment clearly states she was talking about knowledge of where the girls are. Interesting.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/wo...cle_0103aa90-d260-11e1-b807-001a4bcf887a.html

The hinky post indicates SOMEONE had attempted suicide and was pulled from the lake (we don't know which lake, or in which township etc)....

We don't know if it was THIS lady (though that does seem suspicious to me!)

 

[Simp]

I don't know how to post a link from my iPad. On #1124 on this thread there is a link to an article. To the side of that article is a list of more articles related to this case. There is one titled "Dogs track girl's scent". In that article it states the guy watering his lawn saw the girls while he was watering his lawn from 12-1. Didn't I see on here questions about this guy watering his lawn from 12-3?? Somebody go look at that article and see what you think.

 

[GrainneDhu]

You're talking about this comment, that the FBI says they have reason to believe the girls are alive, and every time you say it, I feel like I remember the same comment being made in a different case, and it's really bugging me, so, ANYONE? Do you recall the FBI or LE making that comment in another case? We have reason to believe "Suzy S." is alive. If I wait for my brain to kick in, it will be 3 am and I'll wake up from a sound sleep.

Too many times to recall.

Both the local LE and the FBI.

It usually only means they haven't found any direct evidence of death.

 

[Wishbone]

I am not sure that is the case about sloppy police work. We were saying the same things on the Sierra Lamar forum, criticizing LE for being incompetent, and then we found out they had been following a suspect and knew who he was for a couple of weeks already. So they might know more than we are giving them credit for.

In the Sierra case, LE showed a picture of a red car with a black hood, and asked if anyone had seen it around Morgan Hill. Everyone tried to figure out who owned one like that, and we criticized LE for not knowing already. It turned out they already had the car in custody, knew it was the vehicle used in her kidnapping, and they just wanted to know where else he was driving around, in hopes of finding her body.

IMO they are a day late and dollar short.

 

[CocoChanel]

You're talking about this comment, that the FBI says they have reason to believe the girls are alive, and every time you say it, I feel like I remember the same comment being made in a different case, and it's really bugging me, so, ANYONE? Do you recall the FBI or LE making that comment in another case? We have reason to believe "Suzy S." is alive. If I wait for my brain to kick in, it will be 3 am and I'll wake up from a sound sleep.

It is significant that the statement came from the FBI, not local or state LE. As much as I admire ALL law enforcement agencies, federal agents for the most part IMHO are a step above in professionalism and accountability. That is why I think it is extraordinary for the feds to have made such a bold statement. I would be willing to change my opinion if we can find another case where they did so in error.

 

[CocoChanel]

Confirmed that there was a woman threatening suicide (see link) but it was in the river, not the lake as the poster stated. The article states it is not related to the missing girls, however, the comment clearly states she was talking about knowledge of where the girls are. Interesting.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/wo...cle_0103aa90-d260-11e1-b807-001a4bcf887a.html

This incident occurred late (midnight) Thursday, and the FBI said they believe the girls are alive based on evidence developed Friday. hmmmmmm....

 

[katydid23]

You're talking about this comment, that the FBI says they have reason to believe the girls are alive, and every time you say it, I feel like I remember the same comment being made in a different case, and it's really bugging me, so, ANYONE? Do you recall the FBI or LE making that comment in another case? We have reason to believe "Suzy S." is alive. If I wait for my brain to kick in, it will be 3 am and I'll wake up from a sound sleep.

They used to say that repeatedly in Ayla Reynolds case, but not anymore, sadly. They also said it repeatedly in Sierra Lamar's case.

 

[FightTheOstrich]

I am in total agreement with you. The FBI would not make that statement to appease anyone. They had good reason to make the statement that they believe the girls are alive. It is unprecedented for them to make such a bold statement which leads me also to believe there is something important they know which they cannot say. I wish I could have seen the presser today. I will look for a link to see if I can assess the demeanor of those who spoke. You can read a lot in how someone speaks, sometimes more than what they say. And IMEO, the spokesperson for the FBI had the demeanor of someone who was sure, not someone out to placate. :moo:

My only concern with the statement is that they feel that there are witnesses out there that may only come forward if they believe the girls are alive. That is, someone saw something and perhaps they didn't think it was relevant bc LE made it appear that they believed the girls had drown. Perhaps they feel the only way to get someone to speak now is if they feel that it will help the girls. I can imagine someone feeling guilty because they didn't come forward and if they think the girls are dead it may not seem worth it to come forward now. However, if someone has information and they believe the girls are alive they maybe willing to share their information thinking it's better late than never.

 

[Confusion]

It is significant that the statement came from the FBI, not local or state LE. As much as I admire ALL law enforcement agencies, federal agents for the most part IMHO are a step above in professionalism and accountability. That is why I think it is extraordinary for the feds to have made such a bold statement. I would be willing to change my opinion if we can find another case where they did so in error.

I have no idea if they always do or not, but in my experience they're more likely to say, "We have reason to believe," when they aren't totally sure; saying they "truly believe based on evidence found" sounds a lot different to me. Or it could be that I'm still forever the optimist.

 

[Karenlisam]

I too find the phrasing that they feel strongly they are alive very promising

We had a high profile case in the UK a few years back where a little girl called Shannon Matthews went missing . She was found two weeks later - her mother had staged her disappearance and she was hiding at an uncles flat . I believe a misguided motive of reward money was the reason ie the plan was a reward would be issued and the uncle would "find " Shannon somewhere and claim the reward .

It was a truly odd case but reports into the policing of the case afterwards revealed that the police suspected from a couple of days in that Shannon was alive but did not know where she was held . I imagine they must have felt confident no harm would come to her if their suspicions were correct and the mother was involved

I'm hoping now this case might be the same ie meth habit , crazy reward money making scheme , girls disappearance staged and they are hidden somewhere ready to be "found" by someone who will then collect a reward

Link to some info on the shannon case for anyone interest
ed in the theory

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping_of_Shannon_Matthews

 

[CocoChanel]

Too many times to recall.

Both the local LE and the FBI.

It usually only means they haven't found any direct evidence of death.

I admire you and your posts and insights greatly GrainneDhu.
Please help me find a case where the FBI publically stated something as clear and dramatic as "we believe the victim(s) are alive" and it turned out to be blowing smoke. In my opinion the FBI would not risk their reputation by flippantly stating such a thing without concrete knowledge that it is credible.
I don't think the same about local LE, who are not as well-trained and sophisticated in making public statements.

I really hope and pray my gut is right here, but I DO want to learn about previous cases that you are thinking about because I value your input and experience. Please share if you can, and thanks in advance

 

[Patty G]

Over the years I have found that it takes LE a very long time before they go from a child is believed to be alive to they believe the child is deceased.

 

[BlueIris]

They're now asking for anyone who was even AT the lake that day to come forward and speak with police - if they were there for any reason at all -- then they asked for anyone who was fishing etc to come forward -- I think they have other witnesses who have come forward who have told them still about others they saw there that day, or who reported they knew someone who was going to go there that day etc -- and those are the ones they need to hear from. I wonder if maybe there was an ice cream truck at the lake that afternoon? Perhaps the kids dropped their bikes and ran because they heard it's tune and were snatched like that? I don't know of course -- just purely speculative, but its possible. They're saying people may not think whatever they saw is relevant because they didn't see the kids -- but it could be completely relevant!

This makes me think they may think that someone set some sort of trap - something to lure kids, and when they found their victims, they made off with them. I've often heard it said that sometimes the best cover is in plain sight. Perhaps they're looking for someone who was cutting the lawn that day, someone who was playing sports at the park there that day, someone who was fishing might have approached the kids -- someone in plain sight who no one would think of as looking out of place or suspicious!

I think they know something, but they need more info to tie it together. Maybe more info to confront a POI with? I am not sure -- but I bet someone was right there, in plain sight, and acted like he knew the kids, or something and just lured them away.

Also, I noticed, they are still focused on the lake area. They're not asking for people to come forward from the other parts of town (around Lederman's for instance). They want people who were at the lake -- so they must now think the kids actually did make it to the lake, and were riding that trail when something happened.

 

[craftybatchy]

That's very true about a recovering user however... Anyone on probation, who is submitted to regular drug tests by a probation office, is not permitted to use energy drinks of any kind because they actually register as positive for amphetamines, and you will be arrested for violation of your probation. (I have a friend on probation)

Thanks for the clarification. Being in Canada, we have somewhat differing regs which is why I was asking. Does anyone know which brand/variety of energy drinks were found ?

Much has been made of dogs getting a hit on the girls scent near where the bikes were located. The girls would have left their scents on the bikes. Could a positive hit have been from the bikes only, ie. removing them from the back of a vehicle and kicking/tossing/pushing them away from the side of the road, and not necessarily from the girls themselves having been physically present at the location ? I am beginning to wonder if the witness who claims to have seen the girls on the bikes actually saw the girls, or he just saw the bikes being ridden by individuals who could have looked like them from a distance (other children who found the bikes abandoned ?)

JMO, I do not believe the girls were ever at location where the bikes were found.

 

[Thespyma]

I admire you and your posts and insights greatly GrainneDhu.
Please help me find a case where the FBI publically stated something as clear and dramatic as "we believe the victim(s) are alive" and it turned out to be blowing smoke. In my opinion the FBI would not risk their reputation by flippantly stating such a thing without concrete knowledge that it is credible.
I don't think the same about local LE, who are not as well-trained and sophisticated in making public statements.

While watching the FBI spokesperson, I carefully observed her demeanour and she sincerely believed when she made that statement that the girls were alive. I was unable to see the live presser today so I could not give my educated opinion as to demeanour. Often demeanour speaks WAY louder than actual words. That has been my experience when questioning someone as an interrogator. :moo: I agree that LE have less training than the FBI. I can see a local LE person stating what he or she believes as a sign of hope if no evidence of the person meeting an end, but the FBI is trained not to do so.

 

[Plumeria5]

I saw that photo, and was thinking perhaps LE put her up to the bar visit? Maybe they needed her out socializing and drinking with people, in the hopes that others would start drinking and babbling things to her about the kids? Perhaps she was wired? Just a thought. If she was out partying, well, you know what? Lets not even go there.

It's a thought. She looks well-rested though and carefree. Baffling.

 

[sweetdreams]

My reason for letting that thought linger in the back of my head was the FBI saying they have reason to believe the girls are alive and family/close friends are being less than cooperative. When I read that, a red flag was raised and I though MAYBE the family could be involved and this could be some sick scheme for attention and money...like those people who fake having cancer to get the money from benefits done in their name. JMO. Actually, I'd prefer if that is what happened because that would mean the girls are alive and well and didn't drown, weren't abducted & tortured, etc. again, MOO.

So maybe the "false alarm" call to the police a few days earlier, was a botched abduction...because LCM did arrive home a short time after the police were called. That leads me back to the point that the first time LCM "went missing" is somehow related to this!

 

[BlueIris]

Thought -- there is a website that if you are so inclined, you can use a photo to search the internet. In turn, the engine will cough up anywhere else it knows that same photo showed up, and find its history for you. I discovered via this engine that several book covers are essentially the same photo, slightly modified (or not, in the case of laziness). Shall we give it a go with Misty's bar shot?

http://www.tineye.com/

Send me the photo pls I'll search it now.

 

[callyn]

Hi all. This is my first-ever post here, but I have been following the entire thread. I happened to be watching Fox News (the national cable news channel, not the local affiliate) this morning when Misty, Wylma and Tammy were on. When it started, the 3 women were not aware they were on-air yet. Misty was giggling and being silly. Tammy actually reached across Wylma and swatted at her and said, "STOP IT." This part has been cut out of the interview that FoxInsider posted online. But I saw it with my own eyes.

Also, of note, Tammy and Wylma were wearing "Find Lyric & Elizabeth" shirts. Misty was wearing a cute summer tank top.

I don't know if I'm allowed to include my opinion on it, so if not, the mods can delete this next part -- At first I thought Misty was involved because of her casual and even happy demeanor. But when I saw her this morning, my opinion changed a bit. She almost looked like the cat that ate the canary -- like she knows something that the others didn't and is bursting at the seams about it. I now think that she was NOT involved, but maybe the FBI has given her information that lets her know Lyric is safe, and that is why she is happy. JMO.

BBM This kind of goes along with that photo in the bar. The demeanor that is. I find it interesting.