IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #16

[nikkiw319]

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ev...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html

http://www.kwwl.com/story/19023342/evansdale-police-searching-for-two-missing-girls

These girls have been missing all afternoon and the search was suspended tonight now that it's dark here. We're a small town next to a larger city but a small police force that has likely never dealt with missing kids.. Bikes found on the trail and purse and phone had been thrown over the fence near the bikes but the other side of the fence is a hill leading to the highway. Right now the search is very disorganized and there aren't any flyers .


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Thread #15


Scanner Thread : remember anything in the scanner thread stays in the scanner thread[/B]


case map by poster hollye

NCMEC posters:
http://www.missingkids.com/missingk...NCMC&seqNum=1&caseLang=en_US&searchLang=en_US
http://www.missingkids.com/missingk...NCMC&seqNum=1&caseLang=en_US&searchLang=en_US

 

[imamaze]

Please remember the following when discussing the case:
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Things to know before you post:
Leave the snark -- and the rumors --at the door.
Treat other posters with respect.
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No one has been named by LE or MSM as a POI or suspect in this case.
The parents, whatever you may personally think about them, have not been named.
That means that they, and their families, their neighbors, and their friends and "associates," are not to be sleuthed or badmouthed.

 

[imamaze]

Please continue here...

 

[SeeMamaRun]

Please come home soon Lizzie and Lyric!

lease:

 

[tlcya]

have not been too vocal about this one the last week because I feel I have hashed and rehashed what we do know. But I still check for news daily and pray these girls are found.

 

[MNDad]

My last two responses dropped on the last page of the previous thread after the mod provided the link to this thread. Do I need to move those over here? How does that work for quoting across threads?

 

[cindersoot]

My last two responses dropped on the last page of the previous thread after the mod provided the link to this thread. Do I need to move those over here? How does that work for quoting across threads?

So did mine.

 

[ShyViolet]

When I click on thread 15, I get directed to this thread-thread 16. ?? Tia

 

[Ambi16]

forgive me if this was already discussed..but has it been discussed on here that there is a nature trail called "evansdale nature trail"that runs from layfayette straight down to the bike trail at meyers lake? if the girls biked this trail, then that would explain why more people did not see them that day. is this trail "ridable"? I am seeing it on google maps. I have never seen it before on a map.

 

[MNDad]

This is not correct.

6.8 miles one way via Cedar Valley Nature Trail

(Bringing forward from thread #15)

 

[MNDad]

The paddle boat has me stumped. I just don't think a paddle boat was used unless it's some perp who lives on the lake or is very close. I still go back to the empty house for sale on the lake.

The request for the paddle boater could have not been as a suspect but as an additional witness to corroborate other times that had already been reported. Flee via paddle boat doesn't make sense to me (again unless it is to a local dock as the final destination).

(Bringing forward from thread #15)

 

[Ambi16]

forgive me if this was already discussed..but has it been discussed on here that there is a nature trail called "evansdale nature trail"that runs from layfayette straight down to the bike trail at meyers lake? if the girls biked this trail, then that would explain why more people did not see them that day. is this trail "ridable"? I am seeing it on google maps. I have never seen it before on a map.

that could also explain how they rode to the lake so quickly.

 

[Ambi16]

I wonder if they searched that trail??

 

[Confusion]

I wanted to bring some posts from the last thread that I thought might be worth discussing and/or referencing, or that may have just gotten missed in the change.

I've been trying to come up with some ideas that use more of the facts (or things LE has mentioned), but it's hard to fit them all together in one "story." This morning I was thinking about the paddleboat and the dogs.

The owner/s of the paddleboat said he/they believed someone had taken out their boat while they were gone, and we've never heard of anyone admitting to using it. Is it possible that 2 young boys took it out for a joy ride and saw the girls on the bike trail. They may have talked to them while the boys were in the water and the girls were on shore, but never actually had the girls on the boat (I would imagine it would have been thoroughly checked out if there was a chance the girls were on it.)

If they stood for a few minutes talking, they would probably have been visible to at least a few people if they looked in the right direction (which most people obviously didn't do.) If the perp/s saw them there, they could have moved into position to grab the girls when they went back for the bikes, or once the boys were out of sight, If there were 3 of them, 2 could have grabbed the girls and silenced them somehow while the 3rd brought their vehicle closer to pick them up,

When the dogs came around, they would probably go near the water at some point, but not necessarily end there. It's a bit of a stretch, but so are all possible scenarios with the information we have at this time.

The request for the paddle boater could have not been as a suspect but as an additional witness to corroborate other times that had already been reported. Flee via paddle boat doesn't make sense to me (again unless it is to a local dock as the final destination).

6.8 miles one way via Cedar Valley Nature Trail

And 'local dock' could tie back to the homeowner who reported his/her paddleboat had been used?????????

Okay, I'm a verified dog trainer on WS and I have some experience with SAR dogs. I started watching scent work as a teenager when I fox hunted (a sport that is usually blood free and way too fun).

Your ordinary every day house pet with no training at all will tend to track from the oldest scent to the newest scent. It's instinct. Mother Nature didn't let proto-wolves that tracked backwards eat often enough to reproduce. Fifi the Chihuahua will naturally do this between her stints on the couch eating bonbons.

Humans, we are not so bright about scent and tracking. I suspect that dogs are certain we are noseblind and hence mentally impaired. An inexperienced human can manage to train their dog to track backwards. It's a common mistake for newbie tracking handlers to make.

However, the FBI doesn't spend money to fly in newbie handlers to incident scenes. FBI handlers are experienced and have the training logs detailing thousands of hours of training and the results so that they can testify in court if need be.

So I think we can rule out two FBI handler/dog teams making the exact same newbie handler mistake of teaching a dog to track from newest to oldest scent. Sure, dogs make mistakes but the exact same mistake? Nah.

If the newest scent was on the bicycles, the dogs should have cast around and just kept going back to the bicycles, saying with their behaviour "newest scent is right here on these bikes, boss."

As for picking up scent left by belongings in other places. There is lots and lots of research (mostly carried out by the DoD) that supports the idea that dogs are tracking the millions of skin cells that fall off the human body every day. They are called skin rafts because they aren't just skin cells, they also have skin lipids (oil) plus the bacteria and fungus that colonise every normal human being's skin.

It is possible to lay a scent using something that belongs to someone. Ideal would be to use a piece of clothing that had been worn for hours, got good and sweaty. Dragging that item along the ground will leave a trail that a dog will follow. The part of the item that has been in contact with the human being should be dragged on the ground to leave a scent. Carrying the item along off the ground without touching anything will not lay enough of a track for most dogs to work in a committed manner.

Again, the dog will follow a drag from the oldest to the newest scent.

We know where the bikes ended up. If they had been used as drags, the newest scent would, again, be right there on the bicycles.

According to uneducated observers and supported by Sandy Breault's comments about the dogs indicating that the girls' scent was found lakeside by the dogs, I think we can rule out the bikes having been used as drags.

So, I've gotta go with Sandy Breault: the dogs indicated that the girls were at the lake that day.

...can I talk about fox hunting now? <just kidding>

 

[cindysue]

Does anyonE know if LE searched the empty house or houses by the lake?

 

[foxbluff]

Have been playing catch-up for a couple of days now <am I the only one who hears the groans?!?> lol

I was finally ready to ask a couple of questions when you guys switched threads. So please forgive my snipped/c/p style of quoting GrainneDhu's most interesting/informative post: " ...If the newest scent was on the bicycles, the dogs should have cast around and just kept going back to the bicycles, saying with their behaviour "newest scent is right here on these bikes, boss."

That answered what was going to be my first Question! I hadn't suspected that the bikes had been "dragged" but had wondered if dogs could follow a scent "old to new" which doubled back on itself in a matter of minutes. Wow...

Now re: Cindersoot's post on the difference in size of helmets and heads of women and children. Q#1: Can anybody tell me if the girls were wearing bike helmets?

Q#2: regarding LC's size: Are there any recent photos online of LC which show more of her than the headshots? (In recent headshots, she appears to me to look more like a 13-yr. old. It seems that I read she weights 145 lbs. What are the chances that people could have seen them that day and not recognized that they were seeing an 8 and 10 year old?)

 

[hambirg]

that could also explain how they rode to the lake so quickly.

But when the girls were caught on cctv they were riding away from that trail. Abben said "it is important to note." I don't think they believe the girls took that trail.

MOO

 

[MNDad]

And 'local dock' could tie back to the homeowner who reported his/her paddleboat had been used?????????

Yes it could, but I assume that LE has checked them, the paddleboat and their property out. They did willingly come forward and by doing so subjected themselves to a possible search. I just can't picture someone grabbing two girls using a paddleboat. Yes it could be used as a lure, but no matter where on the shorline their destination was, can you picture someone paddling like a bat of hell trying to get there? In my opinion anyone who would choose a paddle boat as the escape vehicle of choice wouldn't be smart enough to elude all of us for this long.

 

[hambirg]

OT- But I wonder if the yellow nail polish topic is related to this. . .

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=148578&highlight=dungeon

 

[GrainneDhu]

That answered what was going to be my first Question! I hadn't suspected that the bikes had been "dragged" but had wondered if dogs could follow a scent "old to new" which doubled back on itself in a matter of minutes. Wow...

SBM

It depends on the dog.

I have seen a few dogs that would track down a double laid track where the person walks in one direction, then makes a 180 degree turn and tries to walk over the track they just laid. Those few dogs would go right down to the place the person made the 180 degree turn, turn with the turn and follow the tracklayer back along the trail.

Many dogs don't. It's highly unlikely that someone will double back for very long distances. Eventually that person will step away from their pre-laid track and go somewhere else. Dogs will often skip the double laid portion of the track and just make the turn where the tracklayer turned off the track. If the particular individual that the dog is tracking lays down fresher scent, that's what the dog is most likely to follow.

I suspect that dogs are capable of more than humans realise. The problem isn't the capabilities of dogs, it's the human ability to communicate to the dog what is wanted that is probably lacking.

Dogs do make mistakes. So do handlers. Put the two living beings together and the occasional mistake is going to happen.