CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #7

[Seek&Find]

Someone mentioned Occam's Razor the other day so here is the definition of that.

Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor, Latin lex parsimoniae) is the law of parsimony, economy, or succinctness. It is a principle stating that among competing hypotheses, the one that makes the fewest assumptions should be selected.

Using that theory, I believe it was one of DR's friends that he was supposed to meet that morning, that said he thought he was hitching and someone took him away. Actually there were two of friends who said that.

Maybe we should be looking at the simple and not creating a string of what if's. Especially since we have hardly any facts about DR's disappearance, but lots of assumptions. jmo

Except then we're left with a complex series of gyrations to explain why Dylan didn't power on or use his cell or the landline, and wasn't seen by anyone, why Dad didn't place calls to Dylan or his friends, didn't look for him til several hours after he returned, didn't call 911, etc. Thus Dylan hitching is not the least complex, most logical hypothesis, IMO.

Posting Dylan's friends comments, again:

RN, 13, a friend of Dylan’s said in a phone interview Saturday that Dylan was originally going to Bayfield to visit his friends Sunday night but then changed that to meet them at 6:30 a.m. Monday.

R said he and his friends expected Dylan’s father to drive him into town from Vallecito, but Dylan never arrived.

Mark Redwine showed up later asking where Dylan was but the three friends didn’t know.

R said he texted and called Dylan’s phone all day but didn’t get replies.

R and friends FS and WH were part of a group of residents Saturday going door-to-door in Bayfield on County Road 502, handing out fliers with information about Dylan.

“We asked (residents) about any sheds or barns where he could take shelter,” F said.

The boys said Dylan wasn’t shy about hitching rides.

“Honestly, I think he was walking into Bayfield and got taken away,” he said.

W agreed.

“I don’t think he’s one to run away,” he said.

link

It looks like Dylan's friends thought Mark w/b driving Dylan, couldn't reach him, then Dylan's dad shows up not knowing where Dylan is, so his friends try to come up with a plausible theory which doesn't involve running away in which dad doesn't know where Dylan is.

Moo

 

[PaulR]

That's one of the reasons I was wondering if it was a charter flight...?

Moo

I have a hard time thinking it was a charter flight.

The father may have thought it was a direct flight - which does not mean a non-stop flight! A direct flight only means no change in flight numbers, meaning the plane can stop at another airport, pick up/drop off passengers, and continue. So you can have a one-stop or even two-stop direct flight.

 

[Dixie811]

Conversely, during the first few days the son is there, he made plans to spend the first two days with his friends? Let's face it: Spending time with your father at 13 is pretty dull. Especially when it's guys. After the first five minutes, what else is there to talk about?? It is not like catching up with your peers. MOO.

You make a great point, Annie. We roast MR for having some meetings scheduled for Monday morning, but Dylan was just as eager to leave his dad's to stay at friends' for two days. Perhaps when Dad originally made the appointments/meetings for Monday morning he made them early on purpose thinking he would be back about the time Dylan would be getting up for the day.

I think trying to understand the family dynamic here is nearly impossible from the outside.

JMO

 

[jjenny]

Conversely, during the first few days the son is there, he made plans to spend them with his friends! Let's face it: hanging out with your father at 13 is pretty dull. Especially when it's guys. After the first five minutes, what else is there to talk about?? It is not like catching up with your peers. MOO.

I doesn't look to me that the son was too eager to spend time with father whom he didn't see since September. First thing the son wanted to do is go visit friends-on the day of arrival. Father had to tell him it was too late, so the plan was made to go visit friends the first thing tomorrow morning. Six thirty am is pretty early.

 

[SCHMAE]

You make a great point, Annie. We roast MR for having some meetings scheduled for Monday morning, but Dylan was just as eager to leave his dad's to stay at friends' for two days. Perhaps when Dad originally made the appointments/meetings for Monday morning he made them early on purpose thinking he would be back about the time Dylan would be getting up for the day.

I think trying to understand the family dynamic here is nearly impossible from the outside.

JMO

You make a great point too Dixie. We have all been pretty rough on dad for taking off first thing. But Dylan did have plans first thing. Maybe it was go see your friends, I'll go get my errands done and we'll have the rest of the week together , free to do as we please ! TY for bringing that up !

 

[Confusion]

Except then we're left with a complex series of gyrations to explain why Dylan didn't power on or use his cell or the landline, and wasn't seen by anyone, why Dad didn't place calls to Dylan or his friends, didn't look for him til several hours after he returned, didn't call 911, etc. Thus Dylan hitching is not the least complex, most logical hypothesis, IMO.

People keep saying that, but I don't know where they're getting it.

He got home at ~11:30, and probably had to do a few things before checking things out (grab something to drink, go to the bathroom, put things away if any errand include purchases). He may have then looked around to see if DR had left a note. He said he tried sending a text several times (which I'm sure LE could verify even if we can't). He may have looked around and saw the fishing pole was gone, and went to check the lake by them to see if he was fishing there. When he wasn't, he went to the neighboring friend's house looking for him. It may have taken a while to realize that he may have found another ride to Bayfield, but he did drive over there looking for him. He got there shortly after 4.

I really don't think that's unreasonable.

 

[Seek&Find]

I have a hard time thinking it was a charter flight.

The father may have thought it was a direct flight - which does not mean a non-stop flight! A direct flight only means no change in flight numbers, meaning the plane can stop at another airport, pick up/drop off passengers, and continue. So you can have a one-stop or even two-stop direct flight.

I agree that a charter flight's unlikely. Again, just trying to confirm his arrival time. If anyone finds that in MSM, vid, etc, please post.

 

[Seek&Find]

You make a great point, Annie. We roast MR for having some meetings scheduled for Monday morning, but Dylan was just as eager to leave his dad's to stay at friends' for two days. Perhaps when Dad originally made the appointments/meetings for Monday morning he made them early on purpose thinking he would be back about the time Dylan would be getting up for the day.

I think trying to understand the family dynamic here is nearly impossible from the outside.

JMO

Dylan didn't pay an attorney to pursue visitation in court.

Moo

 

[scorekeeper]

Conversely, during the first few days the son is there, he made plans to spend them with his friends! Let's face it: hanging out with your father at 13 is pretty dull. Especially when it's guys. After the first five minutes, what else is there to talk about?? It is not like catching up with your peers. MOO.

BBM

sports, sports, sports or other mutual interests
and watching Billy Madison a couple of times, all the guy stuff

unless the relationship is strained....

 

[jjenny]

You make a great point too Dixie. We have all been pretty rough on dad for taking off first thing. But Dylan did have plans first thing. Maybe it was go see your friends, I'll go get my errands done and we'll have the rest of the week together , free to do as we please ! TY for bringing that up !

Well according to MR he was supposed to deliver his kid to his friends. Which he didn't. So what did he think kid was going to do when left alone at the house?

 

[mck16]

Except then we're left with a complex series of gyrations to explain why Dylan didn't power on or use his cell or the landline, and wasn't seen by anyone, why Dad didn't place calls to Dylan or his friends, didn't look for him til several hours after he returned, didn't call 911, etc. Thus Dylan hitching is not the least complex, most logical hypothesis, IMO.

If it were this scenario, then none of the rest that is being debated would matter. I will tell you and I am sure you will disagree, but if it were my son and I came home and he was gone, I would not be surprised or worried.

I would begin looking for him after a certain time, but I would probably be thinking he is with his friends and either not answering the phone or not hearing the phone. When he got really worried he went to the boys home. Which is not across the street, but a distance away. When they told him they had not seen dylan he went to the sheriff. I find nothing wrong with that.

If and until LE says DR never made it to his dad's, then I am not going to spend my time assuming things to fit this theory. If they do say this, I will be very sad and hope MR is punished to the fullest extent of the law. jmo

 

[vasportsmom]

I fail to see how that is somehow more simple than some alternative theories.

Me too! Seems to me that the simplest option would be that he was killed by the person that last saw him shortly after his last phone activity.


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[mck16]

Dylan didn't pay an attorney to pursue visitation in court.

Moo

Do you have a link that shows MR paid an attorney for visitation rights for this holiday? Or anything that was separate from the divorce? Just wondering because it has been mentioned but I have not seen anything proving that. tia

 

[PaulR]

Dylan didn't pay an attorney to pursue visitation in court.

Maybe I'm not seeing the point of this comment? Are you saying children should start hiring attorneys to get visitation rights?

 

[Seek&Find]

People keep saying that, but I don't know where they're getting it.

He got home at ~11:30, and probably had to do a few things before checking things out (grab something to drink, go to the bathroom, put things away if any errand include purchases). He may have then looked around to see if DR had left a note. He said he tried sending a text several times (which I'm sure LE could verify even if we can't). He may have looked around and saw the fishing pole was gone, and went to check the lake by them to see if he was fishing there. When he wasn't, he went to the neighboring friend's house looking for him. It may have taken a while to realize that he may have found another ride to Bayfield, but he did drive over there looking for him. He got there shortly after 4.

I really don't think that's unreasonable.

There've been pages of posts explaining all the lingering questions many have with this timeline/actions as we know them at this point. In quoted post, it takes multiple hypotheticals not currently represented by info we have, thus it's not the simplest explanation, IMO. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree as to which theory best employs Occam's and represents what we know thus far.

Moo

 

[jjenny]

BBM

sports, sports, sports or other mutual interests
and watching Billy Madison a couple of times, all the guy stuff

unless the relationship is strained....

Or go fishing, hiking, boating, that sort of thing. There is a lot of nature out there.

 

[Dixie811]

Dylan didn't pay an attorney to pursue visitation in court.

Moo

Of course not, his father did. I'm still failing to see what the issue is. It is visitation, yes, but both Dylan and his father had things they wanted/needed to do in addition to spending time with each other that week. My point was that I don't take great offense to the idea of MR scheduling some errands/meetings for early on Monday morning, despite the fact that Dylan was in town.

JMO

 

[mck16]

Me too! Seems to me that the simplest option would be that he was killed by the person that last saw him shortly after his last phone activity.


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We truly do not know the last person who saw Dylan. jmo

 

[PaulR]

Well according to MR he was supposed to deliver his kid to his friends. Which he didn't. So what did he think kid was going to do when left alone at the house?

Watch TV? Play with the iPad? Call his friends? Facebook? Play outside?

 

[Ransom]

You should be able to use it with iPads 1 & 2. We've not been able to connect my iPad to Bluetooth because we think apple purposely disabled that feature to force people to sign up for data service.


So to recap:
iPads need either wifi or cellular service to make texting happen.

No where has it ever been said that DR had an iPad. WTH?
Sorry. I am at my wits end with this "speculation" of what YOUR kids have/do, YOU do, what YOU have, etc.

An iPod (which we do not know what kind) was found per MR.

Not aimed at anyone in particular. Just stating what we know NOW, which isn't much.

Carry on.