IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #24

[Marilynilpa]

I'm thinking comfort zones in terms of abducting a child in Evandale, assualting that child at Maiden Lane, all of this possibly being done close enough to home so the perp could make a run for it (short driving distance) if necessary (think of Austin Sigg and his first attack in a nearby park) ... but it changed when there were two. That pushed the perp to another comfort zone - 7 Bridges County Park.

If the comfort zones are Brovan and Maiden Lane, with a second comfort zone 20 miles away in a more secluded and rarely used location, I'm wondering how that factors into where the perp lives.

Maybe Waterloo? North of Lafayette?

Waterloo makes sense.

But couldn't the center of his comfort zone be where he works or spends the most time, as opposed to where he lives?

Like I said before, I don't know a lot about comfort zones and how that impacts a perp's decisions or actions. I'll leave that up to you and others who are more familiar with this.

 

[otto]

But if Mr. C is to be believed, she routinely biked that far every night, or at least as far as his block. And if her mother is to be believed, Lizzie did venture further away from home than one block. Without any evidence or info from LE, all I can do is guess right along with you and everyone else.

We don't know what kind of dynamics were in play between the Lyric and Lizzie that day. While one of them alone might never have dared to ride to the lake, together they may have thought of it as an adventure - get there quickly and return home before Grandma had to leave. Maybe they weren't as aware of time as an adult would be. Maybe one of them just took off, and the other followed not knowing where they were going. Again, all we can do is speculate/guess.

Nothing about this case makes sense, but I know I am not alone in believing the girls were abducted from Meyers Lake. I don't know exactly how they got there, who does? There is more than one possibility, after all.

If Elizabeth's mother is to be believed, then Elizabeth was at home eating ice cream with her mother each evening after the two youngest were in bed. That pretty much contradicts any claims that she was riding her bike and chatting with strangers more than a mile away each night.

They had just poured juice glasses and left them on the counter. They were told not to go to far because Wylma had an appointment. They were seen riding in the loop, first towards the old post office (parking lot across Sipple), then back past the house towards the Cornbelt Auction. That would have been around 12:15. They didn't come back past the house ... and she became worried. I really doubt that they then took a 30 minute ride to the lake.

 

[otto]

Waterloo makes sense.

But couldn't the center of his comfort zone be where he works or spends the most time, as opposed to where he lives?

Like I said before, I don't know a lot about comfort zones and how that impacts a perp's decisions or actions. I'll leave that up to you and others who are more familiar with this.

If this is his first abduction, I'm thinking that the abduction sight would be closer to home, Maiden Lane a little further away. I'm thinking that 7 Bridges Park was an afterthought because he managed to grab two children at once.

 

[Marilynilpa]

My head hurts - I've been thinking too much tonight! So it's off to bed for me - but first I may read up a little on comfort zones.

 

[Marilynilpa]

If this is his first abduction, I'm thinking that the abduction sight would be closer to home, Maiden Lane a little further away. I'm thinking that 7 Bridges Park was an afterthought because he managed to grab two children at once.

That's a good point about 7 Bridges Park being an afterthought. He might have had to improvise when he grabbed both girls at once.

 

[Marilynilpa]

If Elizabeth's mother is to be believed, then Elizabeth was at home eating ice cream with her mother each evening after the two youngest were in bed. That pretty much contradicts any claims that she was riding her bike and chatting with strangers more than a mile away each night.

They had just poured juice glasses and left them on the counter. They were told not to go to far because Wylma had an appointment. They were seen riding in the loop, first towards the old post office (parking lot across Sipple), then back past the house towards the Cornbelt Auction. That would have been around 12:15. They didn't come back past the house ... and she became worried. I really doubt that they then took a 30 minute ride to the lake.

I need to go to bed - my brain hurts because you are making me think too much!

You're right, the girls may not have taken such a long ride to the lake. If they did not ride to the lake, then they could have been abducted somewhere near Lizzie's house after they were seen on the video at 12:15 (or whatever time it actually was, I know this has been debated at length). And the bikes were staged later by the perp. This is a theory that makes sense.

But it seems within the realm of possibility that Lizzie and Lyric rode to the lake on July 13th. I feel they could have encountered someone at least one of the girls knew, and that person suggested they meet up with him at the lake for some purpose (boat ride, maybe?). He tells them he'll fix it with Grandma, and the girls bike to the lake. The perp is waiting there, and the unthinkable happens.

Since I was one who firmly believed the girls had drowned while swimming in the lake, until the drained lake proved me wrong, I am certainly capable of changing my mind. Once my brain stops aching, I'll re-think my ideas.

And now, I'm REALLY going to bed!

 

[chelsea6]

I thought of that, too. There is a dairy queen right next to the post office.

You mean that 4 Queens Dairy Cream at 3640 Lafayette Rd. (other side of the bank down the road a bit from the old post office? Not quite next door, but you are right it's the closest place they would go for ice cream.

 

[GrainneDhu]

My understanding is that the bikes were found at the unlocked gate next to the drainage pipe. If the dogs tracked to the water where the bikes were, then it suggests to me that they didn't really track anywhere. They were no more than a 10-15 foot distance from the bikes. If we assume that the dogs were tracking, then the only possibilities are that the girls went into the lake - and we know that didn't happen, or they got into a boat. It is possible that they got into a boat, but so far there is nothing to support this theory. In fact, Breault said that without any independent confirmation that the girls were at the lake, she couldn't say that the girls were at the lake.

Tammy said that the dogs went towards the trees, but it's quite possible that the handlers took the dogs to the treed area to see if they picked up a scent.

A good handler can tell within 3 feet or so if the dog is tracking vs casting. Ten to fifteen feet would be simple to tell the difference between tracking and casting.

I'm assuming that Breault was giving out as little evidence as possible. To me, tracking them to the water could mean tracking them in the gate and to the water's edge, a matter of 10-15 feet as you noted.

Or it could mean tracking them down the bike trail and then over to the water's edge at the end of the fence between the bike trail and the water.

Or, given the FBI's record in this case, it could mean nothing at all.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I bet she was a very adventurous and precocious young lady. She was in the lead on the video of the girls cycling. Though younger, she may have had more leader qualities than Lyric. I don't know how often Lyric was around her brother, but Elizabeth had other siblings. Being the oldest, she probably was the "little mama" to her younger brother.

Elizabeth's brother is actually 4 years older than Elizabeth (12 vs 8). But to me, that suggests that Elizabeth could have been the tagalong little sister who was going further than her parents realised by following her big brother around.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Could it perhaps be someone that had a quieter day on one of the acreages between Evansdale and 7 Brdiges?

That would be... everyone. At that point in the summer, it's kind a slack time in the crop cycle. Everything has been done that can be done, so by the time the middle of July comes around it's just waiting and worrying about the weather. It isn't soon enough to be walking out and checking ears or pods, even. Just watch and worry.

 

[chelsea6]

Quote:
Originally Posted by chelsea6
Driving behind both locations, the only hard time I had to get out of was menuevering behind Lofty's. Very tight spot, and only one direction to go in. I had to make a right and then go through the stored semi trailer( beds??) to get out of there, which opened up to all the backs of the businesses, in full view of all the houses. The other end I drove into went to the parking lot of Lofty's, then out into the street.

Given how reckless kids can sometimes be on their bikes, I have to
wonder if either girl's autopsy showed signed on an accident ? (with yours
above in mind). Evidently not since LE has not announced or implied
that ?

You mean, like maybe a delivery driver ran over them, panicked and dumped them the only place he may have thought of... 7 bridges?

 

[GrainneDhu]

One other thought I was wondering about. The bodies weren't buried. They say killers go back to the bodies sometimes. If this guy did, wouldn't he have decided to bury them with all the publicity this case has? Did he really think no one would find them or did like going back to see them? I know many killers do not bury the bodies but I think this killer didn't feel guilt over what he had done. If it were someone that knew them I am sure they would have returned to bury them. That is a lot of guilt to have thinking about them just laying out there.

That's one of the reasons I think the perp is someone without a significant emotional connection to either girl. He may have seen them or interacted with them in some ordinary sort of way but he wouldn't be someone either family called a close friend.

I think the perp just dumped the bodies and walked out of there. I think he was hoping that they would not be found until deer hunting season and, maybe, with a bit of luck not even then.

My theory is that once the girls were dead, they were no longer of interest to the perp and he saw them as a liability. Something to get rid of quickly to lower the risk of being caught.

I don't think he was actually out helping search for the girls that evening but he may say he was. In the general confusion, anyone he knows would just figure they didn't happen to see him amongst the hundreds of people who were out that evening.

 

[Wink7911]

This is my first post to WS, but I have been lurking for quite some time. Please forgive me if I am re-hashing something that has already been hashed over.
The school shootings in CT were all over the news last night and it make me think about something that had happened to me several years ago in September. We had a storm in our area in early August (possibly even July) with high winds and heavy rains that had required many people to come into the area and work on power lines, repair houses, insurance adjustors, etc. I pulled into our junior high parking lot (to pick up my child) and parked so that I could check my child out of school for an appointment. There was a utility worker (in a white van—of course) parked in the lot surfing the internet (using the school’s wi-fi, I assume) with his window down and eating his lunch. I reported this to the administration as I checked out my child and when they checked on him, he was just eating lunch and enjoying listening to our junior high band who was out practicing field marching. He told the administrator that he did that every day. My internal radar was going off a mile a minute (I believe that someone calls that a “hinky meter”).
I began to take note of some of these workers—people that I had not noticed before—and noticed that many of them would take their lunch breaks around our local lake and in the parks. However, many of these people took up residence in town in local motels and hotels. Many of them would be off work at noon on Friday (if they worked at all on Friday) and head back to their families and homes .
I’m not quite sure what I am trying to say and I am certainly not insinuating that someone who works in a profession that requires this kind of travel is guilty, but I wondered if the local area had experienced anything similar even months before that would require some temporary workers.
Again, accept my apologies if this has been discussed prior.
I’m not sure what I think happened to these girls but until last night I had not even thought of this.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Thanks this is awesome, so suppose a delivery guy (pop, chips, whatever they deliver) works his way through the Waterloo Casey's then into Evansdale working his way east. He stops at the one on Lafayette, then the one on Forest River, then Elk Run. He picks up the girls after his Lafayette stop then dumps the bikes by the lake. Maybe they weren't staged, maybe he drove by there, he is probably local and figured it'd buy him some time.

After Elk Run he has his "lunch break" and probably 45-60 min travel time before he's expected at Fairbank. That gives him time to do what he wants with the girls before his next stop. 7 bridges park is only 1 mile out of his way for his route to Fairbank.

If he is local to the area, he'd have a route that probably covered a good bit of area. He might have started his day at the furthest location he serviced then worked his way back home, passing through evansdale on his way.

Just trying to think outside the box here, since we can't find anyone inside the box.

My husband found out by talking to a store manager last week that the delivery guy for 7-Up works on commission. The more product he can talk the store manager into accepting, the better his commission is. And the delivery times are not set in stone; the 7-Up guy gives them a general time frame like "Tuesday morning." Because if he can talk the managers into accepting more product, he may have to return to the distribution point to pick up more product.

I'm assuming this arrangement is not unique to 7-Up, that all the soft drink companies and probably the snack foods as well do it. Maybe all the delivery drivers are on commission.

Sooooooooooo... one route for LE to check would be to ask the various companies that deliver to grocery stores if one of their drivers had a lower than usual commission for the week ending 13 July. Or go to the various stores in Evansdale and find out if they had an unusually late delivery or even a skipped delivery (which sometimes happens in my tiny town).

 

[GrainneDhu]

What would inspire Lyric to go to the lake and be late getting back, after getting in trouble for the same thing only days before? They knew Grandma was leaving and taking Lyric with her, why would she piss grandma off?

If they wanted to go to the lake why did they wait until 12:15 to go?

How do we know Grandma Wylma would have been pissed off? The time Lyric disappeared with her cousin, it was Misty and Dan that got upset. Kids know which grownup is likely to react which way. If Grandma Wylma was easy going, they may not have feared her reaction.

And I agree with the other WS poster (sorry I can't recall your name) that most kids have an elastic sense of time. They're not particularly good at predicting how long a given tempting activity will take and they're very good at rationalising "oh we can do this and still be back in time." Heck, that describes my own husband! I've learned to laugh and say he's living in his own time zone.

Also, having heard that Elizabeth and Lyric typically wanted to spend the night together after bickering with each other all day, it makes me wonder if the two girls were hoping that if they weren't around when Grandma Wylma left, they could then spend the afternoon together and maybe even the night.

Particularly if they knew that the parent who would be home that afternoon was the easier going parent or the parent more likely to say yes.

 

[Bootsctr]

This is my first post to WS, but I have been lurking for quite some time. Please forgive me if I am re-hashing something that has already been hashed over.
The school shootings in CT were all over the news last night and it make me think about something that had happened to me several years ago in September. We had a storm in our area in early August (possibly even July) with high winds and heavy rains that had required many people to come into the area and work on power lines, repair houses, insurance adjustors, etc. I pulled into our junior high parking lot (to pick up my child) and parked so that I could check my child out of school for an appointment. There was a utility worker (in a white van—of course) parked in the lot surfing the internet (using the school’s wi-fi, I assume) with his window down and eating his lunch. I reported this to the administration as I checked out my child and when they checked on him, he was just eating lunch and enjoying listening to our junior high band who was out practicing field marching. He told the administrator that he did that every day. My internal radar was going off a mile a minute (I believe that someone calls that a “hinky meter”).
I began to take note of some of these workers—people that I had not noticed before—and noticed that many of them would take their lunch breaks around our local lake and in the parks. However, many of these people took up residence in town in local motels and hotels. Many of them would be off work at noon on Friday (if they worked at all on Friday) and head back to their families and homes .
I’m not quite sure what I am trying to say and I am certainly not insinuating that someone who works in a profession that requires this kind of travel is guilty, but I wondered if the local area had experienced anything similar even months before that would require some temporary workers.
Again, accept my apologies if this has been discussed prior.
I’m not sure what I think happened to these girls but until last night I had not even thought of this.

Welcome to WEBSLEUTHS Wink! For some reason I can't get my welcome smilies to pull up for a bigger Howdy and Welcome..... But glad you decided to post. Don't apologize for posting anything that might have previously been discussed. We are revisiting this crime from the beginning and all input is welcome. Your idea is a most excellent possibility. Again, thanks for jumping in with your thoughts and keep them coming! :great: :rocker: :seeya: :twocents:

 

[GrainneDhu]

It's been stated that it is likely or possible that someone told Lyric and Elizabeth something that would indicate that they could go to the lake. Who would they take as an authority figure enough to overrule Grandma?

Heather was at the doctor, Drew was at work, Misty was at work, Dan lived in a different town and was there with his mom.

Who could possibly override Grandma?

But when Grandma Wylma departed, she left Drew in charge of the children. That is who was with the children when she picked up Aunt TB in Waterloo and they got the call that the girls still hadn't showed up.

If Drew was the parent more likely to say yes when presented with a fait accompli, then the girls may have been pushing the envelope a little, hoping they could spend more time together.

I'm not putting Drew down. Between every pair of parents, there is always one who is ore likely to say yes and the kids usually know darn well which one that is.

I may be biased because in my family, it was Daddy who said yes. <LOL>

 

[GrainneDhu]

Whether abducting the girls at the lake, or leaving the bikes at the lake, the perp most likely was on Maiden Lane.

If they were abducted at the corner of Brovan and River Front Road, then their bikes were taken to Maiden Lane to throw police of his trail, buy himself some time and, as it turns out, delay a thorough investigation until the next day ... then another week for draining the lake.

SBM

Respectfully, I do not think draining the lake delayed the investigation one jot. Dragging the lake probably did but that was one single day.

When the lake was drained, they had one police officer standing sentry duty to keep people away. The people in kayaks who were photographed were volunteer firefighters, who would not have been participating in the investigation anyway.

The FBI sent divers and side-scan sonar equipment but again, none of those resources would have been used otherwise.

Chief Deputy Abben made it clear that while the lake was being drained, they were continuing the investigation into other possibilities. Because as he said himself that Monday, LE was close to 100% sure the girls were not in the lake after it had been dragged. Draining the lake was done because it could be done and to get to 100% certainty.

It doesn't mean that the 140 or so LE officers who were working the case in that first week were just sitting around playing checkers.

 

[otto]

I need to go to bed - my brain hurts because you are making me think too much!

You're right, the girls may not have taken such a long ride to the lake. If they did not ride to the lake, then they could have been abducted somewhere near Lizzie's house after they were seen on the video at 12:15 (or whatever time it actually was, I know this has been debated at length). And the bikes were staged later by the perp. This is a theory that makes sense.

But it seems within the realm of possibility that Lizzie and Lyric rode to the lake on July 13th. I feel they could have encountered someone at least one of the girls knew, and that person suggested they meet up with him at the lake for some purpose (boat ride, maybe?). He tells them he'll fix it with Grandma, and the girls bike to the lake. The perp is waiting there, and the unthinkable happens.

Since I was one who firmly believed the girls had drowned while swimming in the lake, until the drained lake proved me wrong, I am certainly capable of changing my mind. Once my brain stops aching, I'll re-think my ideas.

And now, I'm REALLY going to bed!

Interesting discussion last night! Thanks for everyone's fresh look at old information. This is where I'm at today ...

I think that's one of the problems we've been tripping over since this first happened. It makes no sense that the girls took off when they knew they were supposed to stay home. Instead, we are to believe that they rode like the wind to the lake, without permission, parked their bikes at the drainage gate for no reason (except to get themselves in more trouble), and that while they were there, they all of a sudden met a very bad person. That simply doesn't make sense.

For the above to make sense, we have to introduce something new: they must have been lured. Then, we try to wrap our heads around luring ... and that brings us back to Brovan - they must have been lured there, someone on Broven must have told them to ride to the lake. That doesn't work. It doesn't make sense that a stranger or someone they knew told them to ride to the park, and that they would do this without checking in with their grandmother.

That brings us back to what Wylma said from the beginning: someone grabbed them on their bikes between home and Maiden Lane (possibly at the corner of Brovan and River Forest Road), and ditched their bikes at Maiden Lane. Why Maiden Lane? ... because that is most likely where he was going to take one victim. It would have taken a while before anyone looked in that location for one missing child if the bikes had not been found there.

Although part of this may have been planned, another part had to be improvised if the perp planned to abduct a child, any child, that day, and he happened to get two.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I quoted the post I was responding to, I do not believe that Heather and Drew were negligent in the least, I do not believe they left their 8 y/o child home alone. If they did, I do believe CPS would do an investigation.

Even though there was also a 12 year old in the home?

I was babysitting when I was 12 years old. Always within a few houses of my own home and my mom was always home so I could consult her by phone if I had to (this was long before cell phones were invented).

If there were short times here and there where the children were home alone, I doubt CPS would find that actionable knowing that one of the children was 12.