What are the chances of some random person sharing both Kate and Gerry's DNA and depositing it in the exact spot as a cadaver alert?
At first you would have to know the odds of finding someone's DNA at any random spot you sampled. We shed a lot of that stuff daily.
Since they're saying that the DNA sample came from three to five people it seems like it can't be so astronomical. Even if it was Madeleine's DNA at least two other people happened to deposit DNA there as well. So if it could happen twice, it's not so very uncommon.
Not sure why you want a random person that shares Kate and Gerry's DNA.
Kate and Gerry share Kate and Gerry's DNA, so anything that looks like it came from Kate and Gerry's offspring could have come from Kate and Gerry... And it apparently can't even be verified that it was even Kate and Gerry's DNA. If it could have been from up to five people there must have been alleles there that don't match the family members. So, some random person just happened to deposit their DNA there whether you believe some of it was Madeleine's or not.
Seriously, the odds would have to be astronomical especially when you're talking about the underlay in a car boot and cuddle cat.
Someone's calculated it somewhere, I'm sure.
I haven't got the faintest idea why you think that it would be astronomical odds to find Madeleine's DNA in her favorite toy.
We know the DNA found it is consistent with Madeleines by which I mean, it has 15/19 alleles that she shares.
Therefore while it is true to say "there is not a 100% DNA match to Madeleine" it is also true to say that Madeleine cannot be excluded as a contributor.
You say tomato, I say tomato.
Let's say that Kate and/or Gerry and one, two or three or four random people deposited their DNA in the car boot. Let's further say that the scientists can't tell which alleles came from which person. Which they can't, apparently.
This means that there is no possible way that science could exclude a biological child of Kate and Gerry's as a contributor. About half of what Kate and Gerry contributed in the DNA soup is going to match Madeleine. Whatever doesn't match could have come from the unknown other people.
Even a lot of the stuff that matches could have come from the unknown other people.
Some alleles are shared by a large percentage of a population and rather than calculating the odds that you are going to find alleles that match Madeleine's if we sample five random people perhaps we should calculate the odds that we won't.
The only way you can exclude someone as a contributor in a bag of DNA that contains DNA material from several different people is if none of your alleles match any of what's in the bag.
If any of her biological relatives contributed DNA in the car boot, it is only to be expected that some of it matches Madeleine.
Another question - did they have Madeleine's actual DNA for comparison? I don't know if it was provided. Perhaps they gave them Amelie's toothbrush. Nothing would surprise me with this crew. :dunno:
If it wasn't, then of course they can't match it completely.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
The first letter says that they obtained DNA from a pillow case that matches a natural child of the McCanns.
The third letter says that the DNA from the pillow case did not match the twins.
Unless there is a fourth child we don't know about it seems like it couldn't be anyone but Madeleine.