Madeleine McCann general discussion thread #28

[Pisces Cloud]

Is there a link for these facts?

On a quick google I could only find this quote on a few blog sources and I would like to see the statistics to see what it really stated . If the rate of stranger abduction is 0.000017 per 1000 children in the general population we can't extrapolate from this the percentage of stranger abductions in the population of abducted children without knowing how many children out of 1000 are abducted by anyone overall.



This appears to be a slight oversimplification imo.
e
I think that quote refers to the study discussed here
http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

and what it says that there were 115 stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions by a stranger or a slight acquaintance involving a child that was transported over 50 miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently or a child that was killed.

It is indeed rare but there were many more abductions by strangers that do not fulfil the above criteria for a stereotypical kidnapping.

Of course Madeleine would have been detained for six years now...

There's also an issue of older children going missing who have been classed as being a runaway, who might have been taken by a stranger too. Vulnerable and troubled kids are easy prey for those with ill-intent in mind.

 

[ScarlettScarpetta]

[/B]

You are assuming of course the handler KNEW it was the McCanns car. I would expect that the handler was not privvy to who's car it was for the very fact he might be impartial, although at the time they had no idea what they would find or on who's car......

It was obvious!! There were posters all over it! It was not hard to pick it out.

 

[ScarlettScarpetta]

Is there a link for these facts?

On a quick google I could only find this quote on a few blog sources and I would like to see the statistics to see what it really stated . If the rate of stranger abduction is 0.000017 per 1000 children in the general population we can't extrapolate from this the percentage of stranger abductions in the population of abducted children without knowing how many children out of 1000 are abducted by anyone overall. Just wondering because 0.0017 per cent per thousand seems like a strange way of expressing the numbers. If it's a percentage you don't have to add "for every thousand children" since percentages are calculated the same no matter what size the population is. If it's for every thousand children it seems like we should be expecting a ratio and not a percentage.



This appears to be a slight oversimplification imo.
e
I think that quote refers to the study discussed here
http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

and what it says that there were 115 stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions by a stranger or a slight acquaintance involving a child that was transported over 50 miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently or a child that was killed.

It is indeed rare but there were many more abductions by strangers that do not fulfil the above criteria for a stereotypical kidnapping.

Of course Madeleine would have been detained for six years now...

To me the odds just don't matter. It is not like a child abductor checks the odds and makes the decision on that. It happens more and more. Babies are taken from their beds, Stolen by strangers. It is why they don't classify kids as runaways any more and put up amber alerts on the tv. We know more and more kids are being taken.

It just does not matter what statistics say. It matters only what this person decided to do.

 

[gord]

No hard evidence. All circumstantial. The contradicting statements. The refusal to answer questions. Refusal to take lie detector test. The insistent that she was abducted rather than wandering off. The staged window. Deleted phone records. Kate washing cuddle cat. The happy photo shoots with the twins when madeleine was missing.

Just off the top of my head.

Also nobody has come forward to claim the reward. I don't recall the amount right now.


Without a body you can't get hard evidence. If people think that every crime should be based on a videotape of the perp committing the crime in order to convict there would be a heck of a lot of free murderers roaming the streets.

Interesting about what comes to the top of the head quickly - I don't really want to start a line by line rebuttal - as these have been done to death - and we could spend the next 3 days going to and fro

I agree you don't always need a 100% cast iron case - but you need some physical evidence that tells a story at least

to me I have yet to see even a logical theory or idea on the basics ie how it happened - how the body was moved around the various alert sites. - why ?? where it was hidden , how was it transferred to the hire car weeks later who was involved - what motive ..| mean anything hard etc etc -its all a bit lacking in any detail - I just cant believe that a body being stashed in the heat of Portugal for 6 weeks in and around the area would not leave something - maybe even a little bit of forensic

But however we are going over old ground here - - all I know is that in a case like this there would need to be something stringer than the circumstantial evidence above - especially to convict in this case

 

[Donjeta]

To me the odds just don't matter. It is not like a child abductor checks the odds and makes the decision on that. It happens more and more. Babies are taken from their beds, Stolen by strangers. It is why they don't classify kids as runaways any more and put up amber alerts on the tv. We know more and more kids are being taken.

It just does not matter what statistics say. It matters only what this person decided to do.

Well, yeah, people can decide to do things that are statistically improbable.

But it seems to me that if you make claims such as "it happens more and more" and "we know more and more kids are being taken" the statistics do matter to you too. This is a statistical claim. "The rate of child abduction is on the rise." It's just that it's just an assumption of what you feel the statistics should say and not something we know unless we have referred to reliable statistics that say that it happens more and more.

 

[~n/t~]

Interesting about what comes to the top of the head quickly - I don't really want to start a line by line rebuttal - as these have been done to death - and we could spend the next 3 days going to and fro

I agree you don't always need a 100% cast iron case - but you need some physical evidence that tells a story at least

to me I have yet to see even a logical theory or idea on the basics ie how it happened - how the body was moved around the various alert sites. - why ?? where it was hidden , how was it transferred to the hire car weeks later who was involved - what motive ..| mean anything hard etc etc -its all a bit lacking in any detail - I just cant believe that a body being stashed in the heat of Portugal for 6 weeks in and around the area would not leave something - maybe even a little bit of forensic

But however we are going over old ground here - - all I know is that in a case like this there would need to be something stringer than the circumstantial evidence above - especially to convict in this case

In my opinion I never believed Madeleine was stashed. One of my theories is she died in the apartment and disposed of that same night in the sea.

That said , I'm still a fence sitter and not dismissing the abduction theory. I don't believe she was killed by an intruder and taken away after he/she killed her and that is why I'm having a difficult time reconciling the dog findings in the apartment.

It may have been an accident or she was murdered in a fit of rage.

I think we all want a live Madeleine and a happy ending to this tragic case but sadly the odds are against her being found alive.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Be fair to the dogs>>>>> I'm not the one daily placing them on the proverbial pedestal.

 

[CHERIE.T]

It was obvious!! There were posters all over it! It was not hard to pick it out.

I finally had time to watch it. Why in heaven's name are people saying there were no posters on said car? :banghead:
Saw them. Plain as day.

 

[CHERIE.T]

Those calculations in the dna-view quote are not usable to the mixture of DNA because calculating the odds of finding both the 10,11 genotype at the CSF1PO locus and the 8,8 genotype at the TPOX locus and whatever the genotypes were in the THO1 and vWA loci in two different people presupposes that we know which components came from which individuals.

it is not possible to know that in a mixture according to John Lowe.

Ya have a link to all that so I can read it in context and try to make sense of it?

 

[aa9511]

That is not the whole thing imo. He does point out that the DNA of the family is all intertwined so everything that matches Madeleine would match someone else in the family too but the problem is that the DNA in the car boot is a mix of three to five people. (I don't know how they know that, maybe because there are more versions of a single gene that one person could have?) If it was just from one person they could in all likelihood determine whether it was Madeleine or one of the family members. But since there is no saying how many alleles each of the unknown 3 to 5 contributors donated to the mix there is a chance that the 15 alleles that match Madeleine's came from several different sources, not all from the same person which means the results mean much less.

Even if Madeleine's corpse was in that car it might still not be her DNA. You would expect to find the McCanns DNA in the car they used. You would find it in the trunk of the car they use now, even and you would find components that match Madeleine. You would be unlikely to conclude that this means Madeleine was in the car.

I can't believe they would have stored a corpse that was several weeks old in the trunk of a hired car without bagging and double bagging and triple bagging and packaging it in a plastic container and whatnot so even if she was in that car dead at some point it is not a given that her cadaver fluids were ever in much direct contact with the interior. (If not, they might not have needed the dog to detect an odor.)

bbm

I'm sure they didn't predict that they would have specially-trained dogs come out and sniff their car.

 

[CHERIE.T]

But his dogs were not of any help during the Madeleine case search.
They found no Madeleine's body.
They found no Madeleine's blood.
Probably because she was neither injured or dead.

Bumping up for anyone interested.

 

[aa9511]

I have decided as there is not much going on with the case at the moment until the next Efit comes out to look at the odds of stranger abduction.

I was quite surprised at how rare it really is. As a lot of you are from the states I am using information from there.

FACT 1.

According to the U.S. Dept. of Justice statistics on violent crimes (1973 - 2002), the rate of kidnappings perpetrated by strangers is 0.0017 percent for every 1,000 children. In real-world numbers, this means that out of every 1,000 children who get kidnapped, only 1 or 2 of them are taken by strangers.

FACT 2



According to another study done by the U.S. Dept. of Justice, of the roughly 69,000 kidnappings that occurred in 1999 only 115 of them were abductions by strangers.

FACT 3

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, in the year 2000, the following occurred:

• 255 children died of the flu or pnuemonia
• 452 children died from heart disease
• 1,921 children committed suicide
• 11,560 children died from accidental injuries

• Children are twice as likely to die of the flu than be kidnapped by a stranger
• Children are 4 times more likely to die of heart disease than be kidnapped by a stranger
• Children are 17 times more likely to commit suicide than be kidnapped by a stranger
• Children are 100 times more likely to die because of an accidental death than be kidnapped by a stranger

FACT 4

Of those 69,000 abductions that occurred in 1999, about 82 percent of them were perpetrated by family members and 11.3 percent by friends of the family (or other adults that the child knew well).

FACT 5

According to yet another report from the Dept. of Justice, of the sexual offenses committed against children in 2000, 34.2% of the perpetrators were family members and 58.7% were friends of the family (or other adults the children knew well). In the age range for sex-related crime victims of 6 to 11 year olds, only 4.7% of their molesters were strangers and in the age range of 0 to 5 years of age, only 3.1% of the perpetrators were strangers.

FACT 6

In a report compiled by Child Help USA it was discovered that the leading types of child abuse in the United States for the year 2001 were neglect (which makes up about 59% of child abuse) and physical abuse. The most disgusting thing that can be learned from this report has to be the fact that 81% of abusers were the child's parents! That's EIGHTY-ONE PERCENT!

59% of all child abusers for that year were female.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...e-Vanessa-George-Ill-be-out-in-two-years.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...e-Vanessa-George-Ill-be-out-in-two-years.html

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Not good odds for kids is it.

These are the young children missing in the South of Portugal nearto where the McCann child went missing...

The list of kidnappings in the South of Portugal includes the following:

- Rene Hasee, a boy age 6 and citizen of Germany, abducted in June 1996 while on the Amoreiras beach near-by the Atlantic Coast. Its felt the child could have drowned, been taken by his real father, OR disappeared into a quick sand type hole as he disappeared within seconds OF his mother seeing him.

- Joanna Cipriano, a girl age 7, abducted in 2004 in Figueira, located 7 miles from Praia da Luz. Her mother and uncle are doing time for her murder.

- Carolina Santos, a girl age 3, attempted abduction in Silves during 2006. See below.

- Madeleine McCann, a girl age 3, British citizen, abducted on May 3, 2007 in Praia da Luz.

Carolina Santos.

This has been defunked........

Diário de Notícias of May 25, 2007

A 30 years old man, from Morocco, threatened to kidnap the three year old daughter of a woman who rents a coffee-shop at Fonte de Luzeiros, between Silves and São Bartolomes de Messines." and that the "kidnap threat was made, last Tuesday".

See how there was no actual attempt at kidnapping Carolina Santos, only a threat, and that it all happened after Madeleine was snatched, not four months beforehand.

The Diário de Notícias goes on to say that the woman "filed a complaint with GNR from Silves the next day, and was contacted yesterday by investigators from Polícia Judiciária, to whom she told what happened." The newspaper then said that after "Talking with local residents" they "found that the man in question is a street seller and a well known trouble maker."

So far from "never being questioned" the family was questioned by both the GNR and the PJ, and what's more everyone knows who was responsible for causing the trouble in the first place just a drunk Moroccan street vendor who got into argument with a local cafe owner.

..........................................................

So what do we really have, in 11 years upto 2007 x 2 possible cases of abduction...Rene Hasee, and M. McCann....although i have done a lot of reading of the Rene Hasee case, and it does look as though this could have been a tragic accident, the currents in the sea were he was were really fierce and also it is possible for someone to simply be swallowed up its happened before. The fact there were a few footprints and nothing else...

.........................................................

Oh in north of portugal.....

Jorge Sepulveda, a boy age 10, abducted in April 1991 in the Massareles area near Oporto. No news.

- Claudia Alexandra Silva de Sousa, a girl age 7, abducted in May 1994 in the Vila Verde area around Oporto. Believed to have been taken by two men and forced to get inside a car.

- Rui Pedro, a boy age 12, abducted in March 1998 in the Lousada area near Oporto. Afonso Dias is in prison for his kidnapping he knew him, the boy is presumed dead or taken to europe in a pedo ring.

- Rui Pereira, a boy age 12, abducted in February 1999 in Nova Vila da Famalicao, around the Oporto area. Believed to be seen in Switzerland with 2 Italian men but no other sighting.


There are several teenagers missing presumed run away, altogher I belive there are 13 cases from 1991, most are highlighted above.

That is so sad. Depressing.

 

[aa9511]

I feel like I"m going down a rabbit hole in this thread!

I am not going to give up my common sense in the our quest to analyze everything.

I am not going to dismiss very relevant facts because of the statisical error which I thought was naturally inherent in most cases.

I am not going to give such weight to remote possibilities that it clouds my judgement of what reason and common sense tells me.

I am going to keep an open mind, but that open mind is not going to include every single alternate possibility in the universe.

 

[Donjeta]

Ya have a link to all that so I can read it in context and try to make sense of it?

The John Lowe quote is from
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id268.html

 

[Donjeta]

bbm

I'm sure they didn't predict that they would have specially-trained dogs come out and sniff their car.

Well, perhaps not, but if you ever need to transport a decomposing body that has been somewhere for weeks and might have been getting kind of icky by then... do you really need to be able to predict that they would have specially trained dogs to come out and sniff your car in order to figure out for yourself that it's not a good idea to let the decomposing material be in direct contact with the car interior and stain and stink up a hired vehicle? I'm sure that if she was ever in that car she was packed in a container of some kind and not just thrown in the trunk.

 

[~n/t~]

Well, perhaps not, but if you ever need to transport a decomposing body that has been somewhere for weeks and might have been getting kind of icky by then... do you really need to be able to predict that they would have specially trained dogs to come out and sniff your car in order to figure out for yourself that it's not a good idea to let the decomposing material be in direct contact with the car interior and stain and stink up a hired vehicle? I'm sure that if she was ever in that car she was packed in a container of some kind and not just thrown in the trunk.

Just so I understand the body didn't necessarily have to be in the car, correct? The scent could have been transferred by an object/item?

 

[goldengirl57]

What a surprise, so now this sighting is back in the frame, must mean our poor old tractorman can now lay down in peace...hopefully and they have dug up George Harrison look alike again.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/521314/20131111/madeleine-mccann-suspect-new-report-praia-da.htm

I remember the sighting of Gail Cooper and Paul Gordon and thought at the time what a load of old turnips....

Now its back again.

Things must be grinding to a halt with the SY crack team if this is all that is being unearthed.....

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id67.html

Dear oh dear oh dear.........

 

[~n/t~]

What a surprise, so now this sighting is back in the frame, must mean our poor old tractorman can now lay down in peace...hopefully and they have dug up George Harrison look alike again.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/521314/20131111/madeleine-mccann-suspect-new-report-praia-da.htm

I remember the sighting of Gail Cooper and Paul Gordon and thought at the time what a load of old turnips....

Now its back again.

Things must be grinding to a halt with the SY crack team if this is all that is being unearthed.....

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id67.html

Dear oh dear oh dear.........

Scruffy man doesn't appear on their website.
http://www.findmadeleine.com

 

[CHERIE.T]

I feel like I"m going down a rabbit hole in this thread!

I am not going to give up my common sense in the our quest to analyze everything.

I am not going to dismiss very relevant facts because of the statisical error which I thought was naturally inherent in most cases.

I am not going to give such weight to remote possibilities that it clouds my judgement of what reason and common sense tells me.

I am going to keep an open mind, but that open mind is not going to include every single alternate possibility in the universe.

The rabbit hole seems to be a "thing" amongst those who have the same opinion about who made Maddie disappear. Another thing maybe it's time to allow others to voice their
Thoughts, ideas and opinions. Not everyone eats and breathes this case 24/7.

 

[CHERIE.T]

The John Lowe quote is from
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id268.html

Thank you.