It is so hard to know who to post about and who not to post about when it comes to potential Israel Keyes. It feels like you can find something that could suggest Keyes' possible involvement in almost any missing persons case.. But I noticed no one had posted here about Mark Julian Oldbury Jr. and I feel it is worth bringing up his disappearance. User jexpar discusses Keyes in the thread they created for
Mark here but I thought maybe it was worth bringing his case up in the Keyes sub forum. I can also never remember everyone whose case has been covered in the excellent True Crime BS podcast so I really hope I'm not just laying out the details of this case that have been brought up in some old episode of that, lol
Mark Julian Oldbury Jr. was last seen on the 2nd of February, 2012. His uncle dropped him off at Mansfield Ferry Rd in Vidor Texas, to go fishing at the canal. He intended to camp by himself in the area and has never been seen again. As you can see from the info user ChatteringBirds has put in his websleuths thread from
his profile on The Charley Project, Mark was a substance user with mental health issues. He had been released from a mental health facility/hospital on the 31st of January, after being taken there by police on the 27th of January for a mental health evaluation. It seems like he was in police custody for three days before they took him for that evaluation, after being arrested for public intoxication, but it is also possible that arrest and detention occurred earlier in January (mid January is what his TCP profile says).
There is an article here which explains that his mother disagreed with the hospital's decision to release him. He was deemed well enough to be released into his uncle's care, or maybe not his care but with the understanding Mark did have somewhere to stay, specifically at his uncle's house. Several days later his uncle drops him off out at Mansfield Ferry Rd because he wants to go fishing and camping. It is not clear to me how long he intended to camp in the area. He was never seen again and his family held a memorial service for him and had him declared legally deceased a year later.
On the 2nd of February 2012, Keyes and his partner K** flew to Houston, Texas from Anchorage. According to the FBI timeline and interviews with Keyes family members, they rented a car in Houston to drive to New Orleans, where they took a five day cruise to Mexico. They departed for their cruise on the 6th of February. According to trusty ole internet maps, the drive between Houston and New Orleans takes about five and a half hours. However, they did not go directly to New Orleans. Going by the FBI timeline, Israel and K** spent the evenings of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in Lafayette, Louisiana at America's Best Value Inn. The drive between the Best Value Inn and Mansfield Ferry Rd is 132 miles and would take 2 hours according to g maps. On the 5th, they travelled to New Orleans where they spent the evening in a hotel before departing on their cruise on the 6th. Or, at least that is what it looks like from the FBI timeline etc.
According to an interview in the FBI files, hen they returned from their cruise K** went on a road trip with a friend of hers. Perhaps she spent time with that friend in Lafayette and that was why they were there. I am not sure. Someone else might remember better than I do whether Keyes or K had connections to Lafayette or if their reason for staying there for a few nights was ever brought up. I don't know if it matters, necessarily. I think Keyes disappearing for two days when his car was "stuck in the mud" a fortnight later in Cleburne, Texas shows that he is willing to leave wherever he is at, if he really wants to. If K** was with the same friend, he may not have even needed to explain his absence.
As jexpar notes, the drive from Houston to Lafayette goes directly through Vidor, via the I-10. From the I-10, as you are about to enter Vidor, you can see a boat launch. In fact, it is called "I-10 Boat Launch" on google maps, so if you googled I-10 boat launch, it would probably be one of the first results.
Here is how it looked from the I-10 on street view in June of 2011. Depending on how you measure it, the area that Mark Oldbury disappeared from is
about 3.15 miles, as the crow flies, from that boat launch. If you follow the river around until you get to some railroad tracks, and follow those (they run parallel to some kind of canal too, I think) you hit the canal that I am assuming Mark Oldbury went fishing on or near in about 3.75 miles. Follow that canal for 3/4 of a mile and you hit
this spot on Old Spanish Trail. It is a quarter mile walk in a straight line to Mansfield Ferry Rd from there.
Interesting Keyes-wincidence is that
if you take that route you pass a cemetery. I don't think it would be visible from the highway or the train tracks.
Here is what it looked like looking at the cemetery from a small road next to it in December of 2011 and
here is looking the other direction, at the train tracks. Another coincidence, maybe—the trees in this image I think are fallen because Vidor and the surrounding area were badly damaged by hurricane Rita in 2005 and hurricane Ike in 2008.
The I-10 boat launch is on the Neches River, which forms part of the boundary between Jefferson County and Orange County, Texas. Vidor is in Orange County, which borders Louisiana. In addition to the Neches River and the canal its tributaries/canals, a lot of the more general surrounding area seems to be excellent for hunting or fishing, with the Big Thicket, Lower Neches Wildlife Management Area, and Sabine Lake nearby. Sabine Lake sits on the border of Louisiana and Texas.
What I find most troubling in Mark's case is information related to
the search efforts for him. I believe Mark was reported missing on Wednesday the 15th of February. Sheriffs searched 500 acres of land and water by foot, four wheeler, air boat, and helicopter. They
brought in Texas Equusearch and used a drone to take HD aerial photographs. They did not find him but they know he was at the camping area because they found his backpack, shoes, wallet, and fishing pole. I find the Sheriff's comment about how they found his clothing very unnerving, though. The first article I linked states that "Hogan said Oldbury must have stripped while he was walking because officers found clothing scattered across the area."
Well. What does any of this mean? I haven't a clue. Nothing? Something? It all makes me think it is worth discussing Mark's case is about all I can say. I know he used substances and had mental health issues. I also know that people with severe mental illness are more likely to be victims of violent crimes and that when they're missing, they deserve to be found and brought home, whatever has happened to them. If we play the odds game and tell ourselves that the odds are that they're missing because of something related to their mental health issue then we risk never finding them because we risk failing to explore all the possibilities for where they are. Violent crime can happen to anyone. Especially when the person committing it is Israel Keyes.
