NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 - #13

[scoops]

I could be wrong but I think Fireweed's point of view is that your theory is no more relevant than anyone else's theory, because it's based off the same information, which is available to everyone, and can be interpreted in different ways all of which have pros and cons. She can speak for herself though.

The inactivity by the police though means nothing. The case is 12 years old and it's more common than not that the older a case gets the more inactive it becomes.

The information you provide is not newly discovered information. Their publicized articles that can be interpreted different ways. Maura's room being packed could mean a lot of things. The student said it "looked" like she was never coming back, she didn't say "Maura wasn't coming back" or "Maura was packed because she was leaving Amherst".

Sharon Rausch has stated Maura and Billy had previous relationship issues that had been resolved. A note written 6 months prior to Maura's disappearance doesn't carry the same impact as a more RECENT note written 2 days prior to her disappearance.

Fred Murray to the best of my knowledge early on believed she had been abducted and if that's the case it could explain referencing Maura in past tense.

In my opinion your spinning the Murray's into deceptive people by the way in which you've responded to some posts.

The information out there on Maura is all the same. You interpret it as suicide, I interpret it as she likely died from hypothermia, and James Renner interprets it as she ran off to start a new life. Every theory has pros and cons and the different theories are based off the same information. So your opinion is no more valid than anyone else's.

(modsnip)

I have no clue what John Smith's theory is other than she hit a snowbank and not a tree and because of that something notorious happened.

Tim and Lance I believe have good intentions but they've gotten simple facts, easily verified in police documents wrong. I think their realizing how difficult this case is and how little there is to go on because they've decreased the amount of vlogs they do and they have silly people (not you) on their show.

Also it's not uncommon to read a post here in websleuths of someone who appeared on an episode of a show like Disappeared and be upset because their comments were taken out of context or portrayed inaccurately.

** Part 2 **

I had to go pick up my kid..

******

It's also in someways unfair to draw conclusions from comments made by the police and those of family members. A family member is going to speak in more of a conversational manner and will include opinions and the police are trained to stick to the facts and not draw conclusions that can't be supported or released to the public. They can also add to the confusion because sometimes their comments can be so vague they can be taken in different ways. For ie. Cecil Smith isn't going to state an opinion that she died of hypothermia, and Lt. Scarinza state his opinion of something completely opposite, and another officer making a comment of somewhere in between. Their narrative is going to be relatively consistent.

The other issue is because information can be interpreted in different ways people are going to make inferences based on their own experiences. For ie. I've seen it written all over the place, by people not in the know, that Maura had bulimia, when to the best of my knowledge there is no factual information that states she bulimic. These people will then project their experiences with bulimia onto Maura's actions.

For ie. I have generalized anxiety disorder and when it's gotten out of hand I've done some very impulsive things. I once impulsively cancelled my airline reservation only to re-book it a day later and pay a $200.00 penalty. So I could look at Maura's life and her actions draw a conclusion she had anxiety, like me, impulsively packed up her room in a huff and would've comeback later and unpack had she returned. Yet there is no factual information she had anxiety, but her actions appear to be related to anxiety therefore she must have anxiety or bulimia or whatever.

The other issue is logical vs illogical. It's not uncommon to see people refer to Maura as illogical, but then try to place logical thought into her actions. If people want to determine she was illogical then there is no way to determine when she's being logical or when she's being illogical and basing her actions on logical thought would.. well.. be illogical!

One big exception I have with what you are saying here is that I don't personally spend a lot of time trying to get into Maura's head and understand her actions (whether they were spontaneous, out-of-character, momentarily lapses of judgement etc. on and on and on) I knew that getting to the bottom of a case with so much misinformation, that trying to get in anyone's head is only going to make matters worse.

But I can follow the actions of people and see how they respond, see how consistent they remain over the years, see where misinformation originates (that's a big one) and on and on and on.

I was a professional journalist for 14 years and before that I was in a highly sensitive combat-ready unit of the Air Force that often had to deal with the media.

I wrote my final college paper on the conflict between the media's right to know something and the right of military/law enforcement to protect sensitive information. It was nominated (although I never did) to become published

I think I am a little aware of how police interactions with the media go and being on the other side of the fence, I have learned that reporters will make mistakes, especially in stories they write that have developing add-ons over the years, because it's easy to loop old information time and time again, get sloppy and make a mistake in wording.

But the biggest lesson I learned on the media side, is that if you want to get to truth, read past the reporters paragraphs and go right to the quotes.

Now you have to keep context in mind when reading quotes, but reporters rarely ever get quotes wrong, at least the reporters that maintain employment.

I also don't recall ever saying my research into this case was exclusive and no one else had access to it. But I could be wrong.

 

[Ricochet]

But I can follow the actions of people and see how they respond, see how consistent they remain over the years, see where misinformation originates (that's a big one) and on and on and on.

To me this is the problem. If the police have nothing new to go on for the past 12 years their answers are going to remain for the most part consistent. Her family, friends etc aren't law enforcement. They have 12 years to think, rationalize, change opinions, ponder different theories etc. In a sense they could be their own exclusive websleuths. So I think there'll be consistency with LE that won't necessarily exist with family and friends.

Quotes from people are important and relevant provided there not taken out of context and how a question is answered might be determined by how the question was phrased.


Please don't take anything I write personally. It's just conversation to me.

 

[scoops]

To me this is the problem. If the police have nothing new to go on for the past 12 years their answers are going to remain for the most part consistent. Her family, friends etc aren't law enforcement. They have 12 years to think, rationalize, change opinions, ponder different theories etc. In a sense they could be their own exclusive websleuths. So I think there'll be consistency with LE that won't necessarily exist with family and friends.

Quotes from people are important and relevant provided there not taken out of context and how a question is answered might be determined by how the question was phrased.


Please don't take anything I write personally. It's just conversation to me.

I just feel like I always have to prove myself for some reason, with everything I say. So i have gotten to the point where i have become defensive and I am really not like that at all.

I know how much time and consideration I have put into trying to get a grasp on this case.

So I do know I haven't taken any shortcuts.

Does it mean I am fully right? No, and I actually love looking at other theories. But I need to be compelled to get away from the suicide theory. And I haven't come even close to that with the other theories. But it doesn't mean I haven't looked into other theories myself concerning this case. My orginal theory was that Maura succumbed to the elements.

I can't speak for anyone else, but when it comes to this case for me, I didn't start with a theory and then work to prove that theory true. I started with no theory in mind, I just wanted anything I could call a fact to stand out and let those kind of things lead me to a conclusion.

 

[Ricochet]

I just feel like I always have to prove myself for some reason, with everything I say. So i have gotten to the point where i have become defensive and I am really not like that at all.

Maybe because you rely to much on your researching of articles and looking for consistencies with police and inconsistencies with the family. I really don't think the family knows and they have their own opinions and I wouldn't be surprised if they've changed over the years. In someways I really do believe they have their own exclusive websleuths because there's so many contradictions with this case in terms of evidence. So i can see how their opinions could potentially waver over the years.

1. Almost everything Fred says about Maura either has to be taken with a grain of salt or discarded completely or assumed he really didn't know his daughter. She is NOT the all american girl and she is NOT a damsel in distress. I'm not saying she's an evil person but she definitely has skeleton's in her closest and I think it's far from normal behavior to use someone else's credit card number and attempt to get out of it by lying to the police (I think more than once she tried). So there's a contradiction. She appears to be one thing but her actions show a completely different type of person. The alcohol is meaningless to me. She's 21 all college kids drink. Who's the REAL Maura Murray? I don't think anyone really knows.

2. She's featured on disappeared and the only friends they talk to are her high school friends, why not college friends who probably knew her better at that point in her life.

3. I could make a really good argument for suicide and unintentional death by hypothermia. It appears she had issues taking place in her life but I could counter that with she seems like an emotionally tough and calculated person that can deal with pressure. She stole a credit card number, used it and lied to the police.

4. It's not uncommon for suicidal people to give belongings away or put things in order (packing boxes) before they commit suicide however I could be counter that with no one clearly stated she was suicidal except Fred, and his statement is unreliable. I don't think she had much time left in school and she appeared to be doing well, brought her text books, and a travel kit. The confusing issue in the scenario suicide vs unintentional death is the packed boxes. Why? What does it mean? I don't think those questions can be answered with accuracy and that leads to speculation and theories.

5. She brought the book Without Peril that dealt in part with tragic deaths. It's not uncommon for people to commit suicide in locations that have personal meanings to them, she could've planned to get drunk, and jump off a ledge. The email to professors could be argued it was to give her time and not arise suspicion with friends and the counter to that would be she took her text books, a travel kit, sufficient alcohol to last a week to decompress, the email to professors would give her a valid excuse to be gone and not expelled, and she took the time to bring the accident/insurance papers which her dad needed. It appears she had no hotel booked so we have rely on Fred's statement she would've known people in the area and assume that's accurate. The police report has the dispatcher asking Cecil Smith if she was at the cottage wherever that is and it really wasn't answered.

6. The video footage has never been released which might give some indication of how she appeared or if it was even her. Kate and Sara who probably know the most aren't talking. Those scenarios both lead to speculation and theories.

7. Was the money for a used car or for something else. We have to rely on Fred's statement and his comments are questionable.

8. The boxes give me the most difficulty in explaining away with your theory. Your biggest difficulty with my theory is it's likely she was intoxicated a DUI could affect her standing at UMass, she had motive to evade police, not ask for help, and the search probably wasn't all that intensive. The police reports state the road conditions were dry (not wet or icy) and it was dark out. She could've made good time on foot and got further away than anticipated.

So for all your theories on suicide (which holds validity) there's an equal argument against (which also holds validity) and vice versa for my theory. I will admit the packed boxes are the most difficult to explain away. Your difficulty would be explaining the texts books, doing well in school, bringing a travel kit, bring accident/insurance forms.

I not sure any answers to questions rest at the accident site but most likely Amherst and if people would talk that could potentially rule out theories.

I have a very hard time with the running away to start a new life.

 

[Lolacat]

I could be wrong but I think Fireweed's point of view is that your theory is no more relevant than anyone else's theory, because it's based off the same information, which is available to everyone, and can be interpreted in different ways all of which have pros and cons. She can speak for herself though.

The inactivity by the police though means nothing. The case is 12 years old and it's more common than not that the older a case gets the more inactive it becomes.

The information you provide is not newly discovered information. Their publicized articles that can be interpreted different ways. Maura's room being packed could mean a lot of things. The student said it "looked" like she was never coming back, she didn't say "Maura wasn't coming back" or "Maura was packed because she was leaving Amherst".

Sharon Rausch has stated Maura and Billy had previous relationship issues that had been resolved. A note written 6 months prior to Maura's disappearance doesn't carry the same impact as a more RECENT note written 2 days prior to her disappearance.

Fred Murray to the best of my knowledge early on believed she had been abducted and if that's the case it could explain referencing Maura in past tense.

In my opinion your spinning the Murray's into deceptive people by the way in which you've responded to some posts.

The information out there on Maura is all the same. You interpret it as suicide, I interpret it as she likely died from hypothermia, and James Renner interprets it as she ran off to start a new life. Every theory has pros and cons and the different theories are based off the same information. So your opinion is no more valid than anyone else's.

(modsnip)

I have no clue what John Smith's theory is other than she hit a snowbank and not a tree and because of that something notorious happened.

Tim and Lance I believe have good intentions but they've gotten simple facts, easily verified in police documents wrong. I think their realizing how difficult this case is and how little there is to go on because they've decreased the amount of vlogs they do and they have silly people (not you) on their show.

Also it's not uncommon to read a post here in websleuths of someone who appeared on an episode of a show like Disappeared and be upset because their comments were taken out of context or portrayed inaccurately.

Thank you. All this is exactly what I meant to say but you explained it way better than I did.
Like you, my point was that all these facts can be interpreted differently. A packed up dorm room does not necessarily indicate or point to suicide. IT MAY DO, but it can ALSO indicate many other things- e.g., running away, an impulsive decision to leave college, a wish to move out of that particular dorm, moving home etc etc
(apologies for the weird way your quote has appeared, I dont know what happened there)

 

[Ava Adore]

Scoops, I will admit you get challenged a lot. Maybe because you're just steadfast in your opinion. I do value your input and glad to see you popping in again.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

 

[scoops]

Maybe because you rely to much on your researching of articles and looking for consistencies with police and inconsistencies with the family. I really don't think the family knows and they have their own opinions and I wouldn't be surprised if they've changed over the years. In someways I really do believe they have their own exclusive websleuths because there's so many contradictions with this case in terms of evidence. So i can see how their opinions could potentially waver over the years.

1. Almost everything Fred says about Maura either has to be taken with a grain of salt or discarded completely or assumed he really didn't know his daughter. She is NOT the all american girl and she is NOT a damsel in distress. I'm not saying she's an evil person but she definitely has skeleton's in her closest and I think it's far from normal behavior to use someone else's credit card number and attempt to get out of it by lying to the police (I think more than once she tried). So there's a contradiction. She appears to be one thing but her actions show a completely different type of person. The alcohol is meaningless to me. She's 21 all college kids drink. Who's the REAL Maura Murray? I don't think anyone really knows.

2. She's featured on disappeared and the only friends they talk to are her high school friends, why not college friends who probably knew her better at that point in her life.

3. I could make a really good argument for suicide and unintentional death by hypothermia. It appears she had issues taking place in her life but I could counter that with she seems like an emotionally tough and calculated person that can deal with pressure. She stole a credit card number, used it and lied to the police.

4. It's not uncommon for suicidal people to give belongings away or put things in order (packing boxes) before they commit suicide however I could be counter that with no one clearly stated she was suicidal except Fred, and his statement is unreliable. I don't think she had much time left in school and she appeared to be doing well, brought her text books, and a travel kit. The confusing issue in the scenario suicide vs unintentional death is the packed boxes. Why? What does it mean? I don't think those questions can be answered with accuracy and that leads to speculation and theories.

5. She brought the book Without Peril that dealt in part with tragic deaths. It's not uncommon for people to commit suicide in locations that have personal meanings to them, she could've planned to get drunk, and jump off a ledge. The email to professors could be argued it was to give her time and not arise suspicion with friends and the counter to that would be she took her text books, a travel kit, sufficient alcohol to last a week to decompress, the email to professors would give her a valid excuse to be gone and not expelled, and she took the time to bring the accident/insurance papers which her dad needed. It appears she had no hotel booked so we have rely on Fred's statement she would've known people in the area and assume that's accurate. The police report has the dispatcher asking Cecil Smith if she was at the cottage wherever that is and it really wasn't answered.

6. The video footage has never been released which might give some indication of how she appeared or if it was even her. Kate and Sara who probably know the most aren't talking. Those scenarios both lead to speculation and theories.

7. Was the money for a used car or for something else. We have to rely on Fred's statement and his comments are questionable.

8. The boxes give me the most difficulty in explaining away with your theory. Your biggest difficulty with my theory is it's likely she was intoxicated a DUI could affect her standing at UMass, she had motive to evade police, not ask for help, and the search probably wasn't all that intensive. The police reports state the road conditions were dry (not wet or icy) and it was dark out. She could've made good time on foot and got further away than anticipated.

So for all your theories on suicide (which holds validity) there's an equal argument against (which also holds validity) and vice versa for my theory. I will admit the packed boxes are the most difficult to explain away. Your difficulty would be explaining the texts books, doing well in school, bringing a travel kit, bring accident/insurance forms.

I not sure any answers to questions rest at the accident site but most likely Amherst and if people would talk that could potentially rule out theories.

I have a very hard time with the running away to start a new life.

Very well thought out!

I must point out though, you bring up the notion that Maura brought her textbooks. that (IMO and my research) is not a fact. That was more spin introduced by family once again to defend/reassure themselves against suicide. The books maura had with her were technically reference guides and not textbooks, the kind of books you accompany with yourself when you are working clinicals. Maura was also in a maternity class (where was her maternity textbook)?

Once again, another instance where I believe spin was brought in.

Why at every turn did the family feel the need to have to explain away things anyway. No one that I can find was ever pressing them hard about maura taking her own life, yet they sure made it a point to come up with talking points to explain why Maura would not be considered suicidal.

 

[Pettibon Junction]

Scoops,

Respectfully, if your belief is that Maura was suicidal and wished to die in her beloved White Mountains, what do you make of her initially seeking out lodgings in Stowe, VT?

 

[Ricochet]

Very well thought out!

I must point out though, you bring up the notion that Maura brought her textbooks. that (IMO and my research) is not a fact. That was more spin introduced by family once again to defend/reassure themselves against suicide. The books maura had with her were technically reference guides and not textbooks, the kind of books you accompany with yourself when you are working clinicals. Maura was also in a maternity class (where was her maternity textbook)?

From my perspective this is nitpicking, and reference guides and textbooks are interchangeable. I suspect it's easier to say she had textbooks with her rather than reference guides. I think textbooks are more self explanatory than reference guides. If Sharon or Fred said reference guides, the next question would be reference guides for what/where.... the white mountains

Once again, another instance where I believe spin was brought in.

Why at every turn did the family feel the need to have to explain away things anyway. No one that I can find was ever pressing them hard about maura taking her own life, yet they sure made it a point to come up with talking points to explain why Maura would not be considered suicidal.

While I do think this is a non issue. I place the blame / confusion solely with Fred. He's the one that brought up the suicide theory in an attempt to get the police to be more proactive. After the searches his theory changed to being abducted. I see Fred with a lot of pride and not the type of person to say that he was wrong, ignore past statements and then become at times defensive and a need to qualify (<-- not really the word I'm looking for but it's not coming to me) his new theory.

In my opinion you're looking for a gotcha moment in the various statements from the Murray's and others, and there really isn't one. I'm not saying change your belief, or that you're wrong because your theory has validity but no smoking gun. If you spoke to Kate or Sara and they told you Maura didn't seem to be herself or she appeared depressed, and then you were able to produce a receipt that showed Maura purchasing sleeping pills and a rope then I'd be more inclined to go with the suicide theory.

 

[scoops]

Scoops,

Respectfully, if your belief is that Maura was suicidal and wished to die in her beloved White Mountains, what do you make of her initially seeking out lodgings in Stowe, VT?

She had just been to Stowe Vermont hiking with her father three months earlier. I think she was inspired by her dad and was having a hard time figuring out whether or not she wanted to go to Stowe Vermont or the White Mountains to spend her final day of existence. Last part of course is my opinion.

 

[scoops]

I disagree with you about nit-picking in that instance, only because the type of reference books maura had, one would not be "keeping up with your studies" with as the family has told the media about, to them which shows she clearly had every intent on returning.

One of the books was a drug reference guide. She from what I have been told, would need that when she traveled 45 minutes to an hour to whichever nursing home/hospital she was doing her clincials at. the one reference book is rather large and heavy and likely would be something she wouldn't carry with her everywhere she went.

I have never believed Kate or Sara have any inside information whatsoever and more to the point I highly doubt kate and sara are friends are were ever friends. They just happened to share a friend in Maura through different means. Sara was two years younger than both Kate and Maura and only met Maura through her job at the art gallery. Kate was a track teammate of Maura and probably hung around athletes most of the time.

I have always found it odd that folks will link these two into some sort of 12-plus year conspiracy to hide information about a college friend neither one knew for all that long.

 

[indridcold]

Hi everyone. So, this case has been a big one for me and for a very long time. I'm currently working on a documentary covering this case (along with Brianna Maitland's) and this weekend I'm planning on shooting key locations in the case from Amherst to Haverville, NH.

I was wondering, if anyone could give me a list of specific addresses/locations that I should definitely film...I'll believing for Vermont on Friday to shoot the Maitland case first.

 

[Tarik]

Hi everyone. So, this case has been a big one for me and for a very long time. I'm currently working on a documentary covering this case (along with Brianna Maitland's) and this weekend I'm planning on shooting key locations in the case from Amherst to Haverville, NH.

I was wondering, if anyone could give me a list of specific addresses/locations that I should definitely film...I'll believing for Vermont on Friday to shoot the Maitland case first.

I sent you a message about that. ^^

 

[Murkywaters]

Hi everyone. So, this case has been a big one for me and for a very long time. I'm currently working on a documentary covering this case (along with Brianna Maitland's) and this weekend I'm planning on shooting key locations in the case from Amherst to Haverville, NH.

I was wondering, if anyone could give me a list of specific addresses/locations that I should definitely film...I'll believing for Vermont on Friday to shoot the Maitland case first.

I've always wondered how easy it is to get lost in the wilderness of where Maura disappeared. I wonder if someone could recreate that scenario to see if it's plausible. Anyway, Be safe on your trip!

 

[Max17]

[video=vimeo;115695121]https://vimeo.com/115695121[/video]

This is a dash cam video of Maura's route taken during the winter with what is likely similar snow depth conditions. There is nowhere to go except someone's plowed driveway. Best viewed in full-screen.

 

[SchoolgirlShamus]

All of that could potentially be true but, just like John Smith, I am deeply bothered that, conveniently enough, oh so conveniently, nobody, be it Butch Atwood or the Westmans (basically 3 people + Butch's wife) were looking in the direction of Maura's car when that alleged abduction took place. I'm not saying any of them lied but it bothers me that surprisingly and conveniently enough, none of them were looking to see what could have happened when it happened. She had to have had some incredible and unprecedented luck to vanish without ANYBODY seeing anything. You could repeat the whole incident/scene over and over again and I guarantee you that 9 times out of 10 she would have been seen by somebody at some crucial point. . .

But that's just it. We already know that Maura DID evidently leave the scene without anyone seeing her do so. No one was watching constantly, otherwise her actions would be known.

No one saw her leave on foot. No one saw her leave in a vehicle. No one saw her leave at all -- so no one knows HOW she left the scene.

For this reason, I don't understand why anyone dismisses the idea that she got into a car with the wrong person because the window of time was just too narrow for such a situation. Why, if no one saw anything at all?

The fact is that she did disappear from the scene during the exact same narrow window of time that people cite to count against the idea of foul play. Whether she did it on foot, by car, or first on foot then sooner or later picked up by car, we don't know. All we know (assuming no one is lying) is that she left the scene unwitnessed.

As far as how statistically likely is it that a woman would be nefariously abducted from such a scenario—that the wrong guy just happened to be driving by just then? Well, my word, the annals of crime history are full of "She went for a walk / jog / swim / drive, and then she vanished!" —then later turned up murdered.

I don't think the stats for a solitary, young, stranded, non-local, no-phone-service, possibly-intoxicated, probably-upset female on the side of the road who then vanishes are overly hopeful. The fact that Maura vanished and was never seen or heard from again is in itself a statistic, as it raises the possibility that she was potentially disposed of with a view to non-discovery.

 

[Tarik]

But that's just it. We already know that Maura DID evidently leave the scene without anyone seeing her do so. No one was watching constantly, otherwise her actions would be known.

No one saw her leave on foot. No one saw her leave in a vehicle. No one saw her leave at all -- so no one knows HOW she left the scene.

For this reason, I don't understand why anyone dismisses the idea that she got into a car with the wrong person because the window of time was just too narrow for such a situation. Why, if no one saw anything at all?

The fact is that she did disappear from the scene during the exact same narrow window of time that people cite to count against the idea of foul play. Whether she did it on foot, by car, or first on foot then sooner or later picked up by car, we don't know. All we know (assuming no one is lying) is that she left the scene unwitnessed.

As far as how statistically likely is it that a woman would be nefariously abducted from such a scenario—that the wrong guy just happened to be driving by just then? Well, my word, the annals of crime history are full of "She went for a walk / jog / swim / drive, and then she vanished!" —then later turned up murdered.

I don't think the stats for a solitary, young, stranded, non-local, no-phone-service, possibly-intoxicated, probably-upset female on the side of the road who then vanishes are overly hopeful. The fact that Maura vanished and was never seen or heard from again is in itself a statistic, as it raises the possibility that she was potentially disposed of with a view to non-discovery.

That's why I said she had to have "some incredible and unprecented luck to vanish without ANYBODY seeing anything", I wasn't suggesting that it's impossible, just unprecented if it happened in that way. If she did get picked up by the wrong person then that person basically won the lottery that night from his perspective, if you get what I mean. Most of what we know and what was said indicates that she fled the scene quickly and was possibly abducted by someone. But what if she just wandered in the woods and died there from hypothermia? What if we have been looking 12 years for a suspect that doesn't exist? I think all the possibilities are still open, I feel like maybe too much focus was put on her getting abducted rather than her disappearing because of her own actions and decisions. I don't think it's possible but if someone could come out and clearly prove that she got into another car, that would already be a huge step forward in this investigation. At this point, I don't think anybody can. Every question raises more questions or more statements. For instance, if we know that she refused assistance from Butch Atwood, why would she then turn around and get in a car a few minutes later? Seems to go against logic. But then you have to take into account that Maura was possibly drunk and that her decision-making wasn't sharp.

 

[SchoolgirlShamus]

But what if she just wandered in the woods and died there from hypothermia? What if we have been looking 12 years for a suspect that doesn't exist?

That's actually the scenario I find likeliest.

That said, I think the 'foul play' possibility is dismissed a little too easily and often here, for reasons I regard as faulty.

I think all the possibilities are still open, I feel like maybe too much focus was put on her getting abducted rather than her disappearing because of her own actions and decisions.

I think if she was abducted, it probably still had to do with her own actions and decisions. (Which is not the same thing as saying it's her fault if she met with foul play. At all.)

I don't think it's possible but if someone could come out and clearly prove that she got into another car, that would already be a huge step forward in this investigation. At this point, I don't think anybody can.

No, they can't. In the absence of eyewitness testimony, no one can say how she left the scene--on foot or not, coerced or not--because apparently no one saw her leave.

For instance, if we know that she refused assistance from Butch Atwood, why would she then turn around and get in a car a few minutes later? Seems to go against logic.

I can think of several reasons why she might do that. I feel that's already been gone into in depth here, but I can give my reasons if anyone wants.

 

[Caffeine]

Given the notion she just crashed her car and was very likely to be drinking and driving - seeking refuge with Atwood would be a silly choice, he was right across the street. People witnessed the crash and it would be foolish not to expect police to be there shortly.

So for her to immediately look to remove herself from the crash site (via car, foot etc) would be the first thing on her mind if she wanted to avoid trouble at all cost.

People who flee DUI accidents go as far and as quick away from the site and staying with Atwood would have been a poor choice in that regard.

 

[Ava Adore]

Aww :/

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