OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[MysteryMaven]

Hi all
I haven't been on this thread in a while. I am trying to catch up and also digest the information on the Comeback podcast. Those 2 did an excellent job in getting interviews from key players and they asked great questions. It did clear up some things and also brought some things to light.
A few thoughts

1. The Hilliard phone ping:
It didn't seem to be a big deal to Det. Hurst. I felt like he glossed over it a little. I always felt like the ping could be a big clue. But maybe it was just a glitch?

2. Interesting how different people in Brian's life answered the same question. When asked what he was Brian was like as a child, his uncle said he was a well behaved, sporty kid. He didn't elaborate.
When asked the same thing, Brian's cousin said he was a big smart alec!
Something his cousin said struck me. He said Brian could be "extreme" and "chameleon-like'. For example at one point in his life (high school I think) Brian had been drinking and partying. He then went the other way and went straight edge and got all into exercise for 6 months. Then went back to his partying. Also, he grew his hair long. His tennis coach told him he needed to cut his hair. Apparently Brian was a top tennis player. He refused to cut his hair and quit the tennis team.
Seemed to be a little rebellious and felt a need to express who he was. Went from one extreme to another.
All very interesting and nothing I have heard before.

3. The box of Brian's things that were in a friend's basement
What were these bizarre, dark things in the box? The PI refers to "writings and other things". I think we can see that there were other sides to Brian. The PI really stresses the words "dark" and "bizarre" here.

4. There was tension between Brian and his father at the time of Brian's disappearance:
This is mentioned by 2 different people. I can't remember the first person who brought it up but they said Brian had negative feelings about his "father's lifestyle choices". The 2nd person is the PI Don Corbett. He knows exactly what the problem was but wouldn't elaborate, he did say it was something that "went against Brian's morals." I am just speculating here but maybe his Dad was starting to see someone during the end of his mother's life. Pure speculation though.

5. Someone mentioned how LE won't give Don Corbett Brian's "police files". I don't think it means Brian had some big police file due to being in trouble with the law, I think Don Corbett meant the police won't share their files ON Brian with him.

6. Clint:
So much about Clint to mull over.
Don Corbett clarified that Clint didn't go to Brian's apartment Sunday and sit there for 6 hours.

Don Corbett also brought up something that really bothered me, Clint's lawyer's statement that "Brian is the one causing his family's pain, not Clint." There was also some statement about how Brian needs to come forward and "end this". So Clint, through his lawyer implied that Brian willfully walked away and needs to come clean. Well if Clint has this knowledge why won't he just tell everyone what happened!!! I know a lot of people are speculating that Clint and Brian were involved in drugs and Clint was protecting himself. At this point if he was involved in some sort of college pot buying deal 12 years ago I don't think his life is going to be ruined or he's going to get arrested. If Clint knows enough to IMPLY that Brian walked away, just say something already!

Brian's brother says his gut feeling is that Clint knows more than he is saying.

In summary, this could all mean something or it could mean nothing. If Brian was mugged on his way home and killed none of this means anything. But do muggers really murder people? No activity has been reported on Brian's credit cards, etc. You would think a mugger would clean out his wallet and at least attempt to use a credit card.
Was Brian under so much emotional and reportedly financial stress that he made an extreme decision to walk away?
If he fell into the construction site and died next door why did his phone ping 14 miles away a few months later? There were no "less busy" towers any closer at the time of the ping and this means nothing?
Where is Meredith now and what does she know?
So many questions.

 

[Anthony96]

Hi all
I haven't been on this thread in a while. I am trying to catch up and also digest the information on the Comeback podcast. Those 2 did an excellent job in getting interviews from key players and they asked great questions. It did clear up some things and also brought some things to light.
A few thoughts

1. The Hilliard phone ping:
It didn't seem to be a big deal to Det. Hurst. I felt like he glossed over it a little. I always felt like the ping could be a big clue. But maybe it was just a glitch?

2. Interesting how different people in Brian's life answered the same question. When asked what he was Brian was like as a child, his uncle said he was a well behaved, sporty kid. He didn't elaborate.
When asked the same thing, Brian's cousin said he was a big smart alec!
Something his cousin said struck me. He said Brian could be "extreme" and "chameleon-like'. For example at one point in his life (high school I think) Brian had been drinking and partying. He then went the other way and went straight edge and got all into exercise for 6 months. Then went back to his partying. Also, he grew his hair long. His tennis coach told him he needed to cut his hair. Apparently Brian was a top tennis player. He refused to cut his hair and quit the tennis team.
Seemed to be a little rebellious and felt a need to express who he was. Went from one extreme to another.
All very interesting and nothing I have heard before.

3. The box of Brian's things that were in a friend's basement
What were these bizarre, dark things in the box? The PI refers to "writings and other things". I think we can see that there were other sides to Brian. The PI really stresses the words "dark" and "bizarre" here.

4. There was tension between Brian and his father at the time of Brian's disappearance:
This is mentioned by 2 different people. I can't remember the first person who brought it up but they said Brian had negative feelings about his "father's lifestyle choices". The 2nd person is the PI Don Corbett. He knows exactly what the problem was but wouldn't elaborate, he did say it was something that "went against Brian's morals." I am just speculating here but maybe his Dad was starting to see someone during the end of his mother's life. Pure speculation though.

5. Someone mentioned how LE won't give Don Corbett Brian's "police files". I don't think it means Brian had some big police file due to being in trouble with the law, I think Don Corbett meant the police won't share their files ON Brian with him.

6. Clint:
So much about Clint to mull over.
Don Corbett clarified that Clint didn't go to Brian's apartment Sunday and sit there for 6 hours.

Don Corbett also brought up something that really bothered me, Clint's lawyer's statement that "Brian is the one causing his family's pain, not Clint." There was also some statement about how Brian needs to come forward and "end this". So Clint, through his lawyer implied that Brian willfully walked away and needs to come clean. Well if Clint has this knowledge why won't he just tell everyone what happened!!! I know a lot of people are speculating that Clint and Brian were involved in drugs and Clint was protecting himself. At this point if he was involved in some sort of college pot buying deal 12 years ago I don't think his life is going to be ruined or he's going to get arrested. If Clint knows enough to IMPLY that Brian walked away, just say something already!

Brian's brother says his gut feeling is that Clint knows more than he is saying.

In summary, this could all mean something or it could mean nothing. If Brian was mugged on his way home and killed none of this means anything. But do muggers really murder people? No activity has been reported on Brian's credit cards, etc. You would think a mugger would clean out his wallet and at least attempt to use a credit card.
Was Brian under so much emotional and reportedly financial stress that he made an extreme decision to walk away?
If he fell into the construction site and died next door why did his phone ping 14 miles away a few months later? There were no "less busy" towers any closer at the time of the ping and this means nothing?
Where is Meredith now and what does she know?
So many questions.

Mhmmm very interesting

 

[neesaki]

I don’t recall hearing anything else about these photos. Anyone have any idea what happened with that? I would like to see them! TIA

FYI, I emailed Kelly aka LookingForBrian about the photos. She replied that (paraphrased) she is still waiting on the photos from the PI, and she emailed him to remind him . She will definitely share them when she receives them.
Also, that she has a new podcast coming out soon, it won’t be exclusively about Brian but will include him. And, that she is still actively investigating.

 

[XPh]

What?

Since it seems a bit of good natured sarcasm is lost on some folks, let me try to explain more clearly.

If someone is arguing that “the camera probably glitched and just missed him, and then he met foul play on the way home”.......I’d argue that you are ignoring what a gigantic coincidence this series of events would entail:

The camera just happened to stop functioning when he left, even though everyone else was seen leaving. AND....

He just happened to meet foul play on the way home that very same night. AND....

This just happened to be the type of foul play that his assailant his his body and belongings so well that they haven’t been found for 13+ years. All the while, they had no interest in attempting to use his credit card.

Basic understanding of probability should make it clear how unlikely this is as you begin to string together multiple conditions. This proposed theory is among one the least likely theories.

 

[MysteryMaven]

I am open to all theories in this case. I feel like a reasonable argument could be made for walkaway, accident, or foul play. That is what is so frustrating about this.

Something I would ask LE would be: Is there anything that you know that the public does not that makes one theory more likely to be true?

In lot of cases LE doesn’t release all info to the public. Curious to know if they are witholding any details. Det. Hurst was very short when asked about phone records in this case and wouldn’t talk about any details.

Also, Don Corbett was pretty worked up in discussing the message left on Brian’s Dad’s obit page. It apparently originated from a library in Franklin county. Don Corbett said LE didn’t check any security cameras to see if they could ID the person using a library computer at that day and time.
It’s possible LE did check but isn’t releasing the info to anyone. I would be very interested in knowing who left that message.

 

[dotr]

Re post of BessDrew's timeline which includes detail concerning message on Mr Shaffer's obit page. rbbm.
OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3
"Please note, some of the original articles from 8-10 years ago are no longer on the web, so secondary sources that referenced those or, in some cases, web archives had to be used.

Bio: Brian was born February 25, 1979. He graduated in 1997 from Pickerington High, went to Ohio State for his undergrad in microbiology, and then to OSU's med school. His mother, Renee--who he admired deeply, by all accounts--passed away from cancer in March of 2006.

March 28, 2016: Alexis reported Brian jokingly suggested they should skip class the next day and runaway together. She also, however, acknowledged that he had also once suggested recently that Alexis should move on from him due to his grief.

April 1 : Brian goes out to dinner with his dad, Randy. His dad says Brian was tired and it seemed like poor timing for Brian to engage a night out with friends. But Brian wanted to celebrate the beginning of Spring Break with the guys. Brian invited his brother, Derek--whom by all accounts, he had gotten closer to during the last days of their mother's life--to come along with him. However, his brother had plans to see a comedy show with his girlfriend.

6:21 p.m.: Brian left a message on Alexis' MySpace page saying he was looking forward to their trip to Miami.

9:30 p.m.: Brian and some male friends headed to Ugly Toona Saloona, a bar located near the OSU campus.

9:56: Brian and Alexis talked on the phone, he told her he was out with "the guys" and this was his chance to talk about her. He also told her he loved her. The person he seemed to be hanging out with throughout the night was his former roommate, Clint.

After the call to Alexis, Brian and his friends walked to the Arena District in Columbus and visited two bars called North Shore Tavern and Brother's. They were said to meet up with other friends at Brother's. They met up with another known girl, Meredith, there and she gave them a ride back to Ugly Tuna.

1:15 a.m.:Security footage shows Brian, Clint, and Meredith riding the escalator up the Ugly Tuna building.

1:55 a.m.: Brian was seen on security footage talking to two women, outside the bar but still in the building. He does not appear excessively drunk in any of the footage. I.e. He is not faltering, wobbling etc. He then walks off camera, seemingly toward the entrance of the Ugly Tuna.

2:00 a.m.: Clint and Meredith said Brian walked away from them at some point, to talk to other people--which was not unusual for him, but they could not locate him at 2:00 a.m. when the bar closed. Some said he went to talk to the band. Since he was a big Pearl Jam fan, and had a Pearl Jam album cover inspired tattoo, this seems plausible. They called Brian, but could not locate him and eventually assumed he left for home on his own. By 2:00 a.m. Brian's phone was said to be going straight to voicemail.

Randy, Alexis, and police all pored over surveillance footage. The police said they were able to determine that every person that came in also left, EXCEPT for Brian.

The following theories have been offered for why Brian's exit didn't appear on camera:

1. He may have gone into a movie theater that used the same building and sometimes showed midnight movies. It has not been confirmed there was a movie showing that night that I am aware of.If this was the case, he would've still used the same escalator/exit that was monitored by cameras.

2. Apparently the movie theater had an emergency exit which triggered a camera when used.

3. Ugly Tuna had a staff exit in the back that, at the time, went out to a construction area. The detective on the case didn't think using this exit was likely. The door was chained. It would've been hard to squeeze through and hard to maneuver. Cadaver dogs were later brought to this area and they did not find any scent of Brian. No articles at the time suggested there were areas where Brian could've fallen undetected or which were later sealed by cement, although this has been speculated.

4. Brian was said to have gone and talked to the band. Some have speculated he left with the band or a worker out the back entrance.

5. It has also been said that at least one of the security cameras was the type that panned the room and could be adjusted by security guards watching. It is, then, possible that the panning camera simply missed Brian's exit.

6. The police did find footage on Saturday morning of a tall white man leaving Ugly Tuna, followed by two black men. When they froze the frame and blew up the photo, however, Brian's friends and family did not think the image was of Brian.

7. He purposefully changed his appearance and escaped detection. However, police have said they examined the video for this and couldn't find any other person who exited who could've been Brian.

8. The girls Brian was last seen talking to on camera and a man seen repeatedly riding on the escalator (apparently trying to re-connect with his own ride) were both questioned and cleared.

Note: Brian lived on King Ave. less than a mile from the bar. But Brian's car was at his apartment and all his belongings were undisturbed. He didn't use his phone or credit cards after disappearing and his phone, wallet, and keys were never found.

At one point, it was rumored that a homeless person reported seeing Brian 4 days later. I couldn't confirm this source as the original article was no longer there.

The friends Brian hung out with that night took lie detectors, except for Clint who refused and hired a lawyer. Meredith also hired a lawyer, but later said she had taken and passed a lie detector test. This was difficult to verify. By all accounts, Clint refused to take the lie detector test. It was also said on the WS forum that he asked for immunity if he did so and was denied.

April 3/4: Police with cadaver dogs, as well as Brian's dad and Alexis, searched the area. It was searched multiple times since then.

May 11, 2006: Someone kicked in Brian's apartment door and stole some electronics. The police had Alexis help determine what was missing. A TV and DVD player were reported missing. It is of course possible that other things were missing, but went unnoticed.

September, 2006: Alexis said she paid Brian's cell phone and called it every night. His brother and father also reported calling it regularly. It always went to voicemail. One night in September, 2006, however, it rang out of nowhere, but no one answered. Alexis notified Brian's father and the police. When called again, it rang for several hours. Cingular, the company, said it could be the phone was charged or it was glitching and the actual device never rang. The phone was said to have pinged in Hilliard, which according to one posted, is a small city/community west of Columbus about 15-20 minutes away from Campus where he disappeared from.

March 28, 2007: A vigil was held. Brian's father had 1,000 green balloons released to represent hope for his son.

June 23, 2007: A sick commenter left an offensive message on findbrianshaffer.com's message board, which seemed blatantly like cruelty, suggesting Brian was attacked and harmed/burned. It was so outrageous and purposefully offensive, it was deemed a hoax.

August, 2007: Texase Eqqsearch searched the area and did not find anything. They had intended to come back in December, but canceled due to the illness of a member of their team.

September 15, 2008: Brian's father, Randy, was tragically killed by a falling tree branch during a severe storm. He had gone out to retrieve supplies from the shed. He was discovered by neighbors the next day.

October 2, 2008: Someone claiming to be Brian, and claiming to be in the Virgin Islands, left a message on the obituary/funeral page for Brian's father. It was a short message that said he loved him. It was later determined the message was sent from a public computer in Franklin County, Ohio, but the exact sender was never determined.

April 2009: The Lantern, OSU's student newspaper, quoted Clint's lawyer Rosenberg.

"...'It is Brian, and not Clint who is causing his family pain and hardship," Rosenberg wrote. "Brian should come forward and end this.' Florence, he said, did not have anything to hide, he had merely told everything he knew from the beginning and did not see the value of doing so again...."

2011: Extended family members were still leaving Brian family updates on his MySpace page, but mentioned they didn't know if he was alive to see them, but were leaving them just in case. They asked him to contact family members if he was still alive.

2014: Crime Stoppers said they were receiving around 2 tips a month about Brian's case still.

***

Again, please feel free to copy and paste and add more details to this in your posts here on WS."

 

[neesaki]

Since it seems a bit of good natured sarcasm is lost on some folks, let me try to explain more clearly.

If someone is arguing that “the camera probably glitched and just missed him, and then he met foul play on the way home”.......I’d argue that you are ignoring what a gigantic coincidence this series of events would entail:

The camera just happened to stop functioning when he left, even though everyone else was seen leaving. AND....

He just happened to meet foul play on the way home that very same night. AND....

This just happened to be the type of foul play that his assailant his his body and belongings so well that they haven’t been found for 13+ years. All the while, they had no interest in attempting to use his credit card.

Basic understanding of probability should make it clear how unlikely this is as you begin to string together multiple conditions. This proposed theory is among one the least likely theories.

LOL, what threw me off wasn’t the good natured sarcasm,
it was that I thought I remembered you being one of the advocates that he had died in the building and his body was still there. Maybe I’m misremembering that and it was another one of a few posters.

But IMO, The probability of getting missed by the cameras , AND being a victim of foul play OR a freak accident , AND his body staying in the UT by accident or purposely hidden, AND being missed by more than one search team including trained search dogs, is of the lowest of probabilities. That seems like a lot of coincidences, not to mention a small targeted, thoroughly searched area to not find him if he was there. So even less probable than something happening to him after he left the building, but as I say it’s just an opinion. As I said I may have you confused with another poster, so if so my apologies. I just don’t have time to go back and re read several pages to confirm or I would do so. And thank you, I hate to see Brian’s case go so cold we stop discussing it.

 

[neesaki]

I am open to all theories in this case. I feel like a reasonable argument could be made for walkaway, accident, or foul play. That is what is so frustrating about this.

Something I would ask LE would be: Is there anything that you know that the public does not that makes one theory more likely to be true?

In lot of cases LE doesn’t release all info to the public. Curious to know if they are witholding any details. Det. Hurst was very short when asked about phone records in this case and wouldn’t talk about any details.

Also, Don Corbett was pretty worked up in discussing the message left on Brian’s Dad’s obit page. It apparently originated from a library in Franklin county. Don Corbett said LE didn’t check any security cameras to see if they could ID the person using a library computer at that day and time.
It’s possible LE did check but isn’t releasing the info to anyone. I would be very interested in knowing who left that message.

That obit message has always kept me wondering as well, it seems they could have easily narrowed it down at least, surely the library had surveillance cameras. Did people not have to sign in or anything to use the computers ? I also keep thinking LE knows something they aren’t releasing, wish we knew what it was.

 

[neesaki]

In the interview, with Corbett? , he stated Brian didn’t approve of his fathers life style. We have no idea what that means specifically, but if Brian resented his dad for some reason, possibly blamed him for say, causing his mom pain or grief, would that not possibly give him more motive to purposely disappear? Just thinking......

 

[Ozoner]

But IMO, The probability of getting missed by the cameras , AND being a victim of foul play OR a freak accident , AND his body staying in the UT by accident or purposely hidden, AND being missed by more than one search team including trained search dogs, is of the lowest of probabilities.

Snipped

If he died in a freak accident, he wouldn't have been "missed" by the cameras; he would have failed to appear on camera because he didn't leave, so there's no coincidence in that particular set of circumstances.

 

[embufum]

In the interview, with Corbett? , he stated Brian didn’t approve of his fathers life style. We have no idea what that means specifically, but if Brian resented his dad for some reason, possibly blamed him for say, causing his mom pain or grief, would that not possibly give him more motive to purposely disappear? Just thinking......

You can pretty much guess what it was he was upset about. I'm sure Brian loved his dad but at this particular time in Brian's life I'd guess there would be a lot of resentment towards his father making it easier to leave. I wonder if Randy hadn't died in an accident if Brian would have eventually come back.

 

[Satch]

Any updates on the "Comback Podcast" episodes? I haven't gotten notices in my "Alerts" box for some time.

Satch

 

[CARIIS]

LOL, what threw me off wasn’t the good natured sarcasm,
it was that I thought I remembered you being one of the advocates that he had died in the building and his body was still there. Maybe I’m misremembering that and it was another one of a few posters.

But IMO, The probability of getting missed by the cameras , AND being a victim of foul play OR a freak accident , AND his body staying in the UT by accident or purposely hidden, AND being missed by more than one search team including trained search dogs, is of the lowest of probabilities. That seems like a lot of coincidences, not to mention a small targeted, thoroughly searched area to not find him if he was there. So even less probable than something happening to him after he left the building, but as I say it’s just an opinion. As I said I may have you confused with another poster, so if so my apologies. I just don’t have time to go back and re read several pages to confirm or I would do so. And thank you, I hate to see Brian’s case go so cold we stop discussing it.

I was refering to the very poor picture quality and the escaltor at closing it is a tiny excalator a bunch of people backed up waiting to step on the escalator could easily not been seen on the poor quality video

people on the escalator are going down five people cueing up behind him to get on and he takes one step to get on his head is going down the excalator and gone

the notion that everyone going was seen going out now that is really far fetched! the camera is aimed at the escalator only. RIght off camera are two large stairs.

The notion that the enitre bar would wait at closing to get on a tiny slow moving escalor at closing makes no sense some would certainly hop down the steps instead of waiting and waiting to step on the tiny escalator

it is the cops assertion that every single person that went came out how can that be determined when two of three ways out and down are not monitored?

an accurate statement imo would be we did not see Brian on the escalator at closing time get on the escalator. However not making a very potent point that there are two wide stairways right next to the escalator

all along they have maintained that when he stepped out of shot from the two girls I got the impression that right of canera shot is the enterace to the club

not is not the case -- at all the enterance to the bar was like 20 feet away from the moment he took one step out of that shot

however what is more interesting is there is a wide hallway with an elevator and a door before reaching the entry to the bar

at 330 you can see the two stairwells right next to the escalator that was on cctvhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz50sB89uG8

at 447 when the assume he walked right back into the bar --off to his right is the large foyer with the elevator and door and then after that the entrance to the bar is another 15 feet or so

we do not know if he entered that instead of assuming he was heading back to the bar

 

[CARIIS]

Snipped

If he died in a freak accident, he wouldn't have been "missed" by the cameras; he would have failed to appear on camera because he didn't leave, so there's no coincidence in that particular set of circumstances.

he would have to leave decomp is pretty intense!

 

[Satch]

I was refering to the very poor picture quality and the escaltor at closing it is a tiny excalator a bunch of people backed up waiting to step on the escalator could easily not been seen on the poor quality video

people on the escalator are going down five people cueing up behind him to get on and he takes one step to get on his head is going down the excalator and gone

the notion that everyone going was seen going out now that is really far fetched! the camera is aimed at the escalator only. RIght off camera are two large stairs.

The notion that the enitre bar would wait at closing to get on a tiny slow moving escalor at closing makes no sense some would certainly hop down the steps instead of waiting and waiting to step on the tiny escalator

it is the cops assertion that every single person that went came out how can that be determined when two of three ways out and down are not monitored?

an accurate statement imo would be we did not see Brian on the escalator at closing time get on the escalator. However not making a very potent point that there are two wide stairways right next to the escalator

all along they have maintained that when he stepped out of shot from the two girls I got the impression that right of canera shot is the enterace to the club

not is not the case -- at all the enterance to the bar was like 20 feet away from the moment he took one step out of that shot

however what is more interesting is there is a wide hallway with an elevator and a door before reaching the entry to the bar

at 330 you can see the two stairwells right next to the escalator that was on cctvhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz50sB89uG8

at 447 when the assume he walked right back into the bar --off to his right is the large foyer with the elevator and door and then after that the entrance to the bar is another 15 feet or so

we do not know if he entered that instead of assuming he was heading back to the bar

Honestly Guys,

I would not rely on that Ugly Tuna camera for anything! The image looks cropped, and that camera's picture quality looks like it came from a Cracker-Jack box!

I would ask if there is any video out there that LE has not released?

Satch

 

[george14]

Since it seems a bit of good natured sarcasm is lost on some folks, let me try to explain more clearly.

If someone is arguing that “the camera probably glitched and just missed him, and then he met foul play on the way home”.......I’d argue that you are ignoring what a gigantic coincidence this series of events would entail:

The camera just happened to stop functioning when he left, even though everyone else was seen leaving. AND....

He just happened to meet foul play on the way home that very same night. AND....

This just happened to be the type of foul play that his assailant his his body and belongings so well that they haven’t been found for 13+ years. All the while, they had no interest in attempting to use his credit card.

Basic understanding of probability should make it clear how unlikely this is as you begin to string together multiple conditions. This proposed theory is among one the least likely theories.

This is a fantastic post.

I've said it before, the likelihood of the cops accounting for everyone entering and leaving the bar, aside from a dude who just so happens to be missing, is too minimal to think he "snuck" out. Of course it's possible, anything is possible. But we are talking about what's reasonable.

I think the most likely scenario is somehow he was killed inside the bar, then disposed of in a trash can or dumpster. It makes the most sense to me. I don't really buy the fact that he drunkenly snuck out of the bar then just so happens to go missing, with zero evidence of a sighting outside of the bar.....anywhere. The reason people don't turn up is because they are no longer alive. It's probably what, less than 1% of all missing person cases where the person ended up being alive with a new identity? Let alone the fact that he was the only person out of hundreds that happened to not be caught on camera leaving the bar? We are talking 1 in a million shot here. He is either in the bar somewhere, or his body was disposed of.

Anything other than those two things are possible, but highly unlikely. Look at it from a probability standpoint. Hoping for a miracle that he is alive though. If so, the CIA needs to hire this man.

 

[XPh]

he would have to leave decomp is pretty intense!

I think you are suggesting that the smell would give away the presence of his body. If so, I'd agree that he couldn't be in an open area. But I'd argue that there could be places that are enclosed enough to hide the scent. There was active construction, which means structures being built, which means if he were trapped somewhere, some sort of structure could have been placed on top of him or otherwise led to him being concealed (in terms of both sight and stench).

I'm NOT suggesting the popular (but far-fetched IMO) buried in concrete theory. I just think there could have been opportunities for him to become trapped someplace that concealed him. In addition to the construction site, I've always though some crevice on the roof or in trapped in duct work are also possibility--and I've never seen anything ruling this out or definitively stating that these specific areas were searched.

I can't say where exactly he could be because 1.) I don't know exactly what the construction site/roof looked like and 2.) obviously it would need to be somewhere very unusual--not an obvious place at all. If I could say where exactly, then we wouldn't need to be discussing this case anymore because it would be solved!

 

[XPh]

But IMO, The probability of getting missed by the cameras , AND being a victim of foul play OR a freak accident , AND his body staying in the UT by accident or purposely hidden, AND being missed by more than one search team including trained search dogs, is of the lowest of probabilities. That seems like a lot of coincidences, not to mention a small targeted, thoroughly searched area to not find him if he was there.

The difference in this series of conditions that you've strung together is that I see these as potentially related. I think Ozoner was sort of getting at this in his reply.

If by some stroke of very bad fortune, Brian Shaffer ended up trapped in a very unlikely, very highly concealed spot within the building that houses UT, it explains all of these things in one fell swoop. One "what if" in this thought exercise leads to an explanation of why he wasn't seen on camera AND why he never left AND why he hasn't been found by searches or dogs.

Assume for a second that there is one place inside the UT that is such an unusual spot to become trapped, that no one would ever think to look there. Does it take a wild imagination to think this might be possible? If this ONE assumption is possible, it would literally explain all of the conditions that you strung together above--and this is why I think this theory remains quite plausible.

 

[XPh]

I think the most likely scenario is somehow he was killed inside the bar, then disposed of in a trash can or dumpster. It makes the most sense to me. I don't really buy the fact that he drunkenly snuck out of the bar then just so happens to go missing, with zero evidence of a sighting outside of the bar.....anywhere. The reason people don't turn up is because they are no longer alive. It's probably what, less than 1% of all missing person cases where the person ended up being alive with a new identity? Let alone the fact that he was the only person out of hundreds that happened to not be caught on camera leaving the bar? We are talking 1 in a million shot here. He is either in the bar somewhere, or his body was disposed of.

I agree with you--but my only hangup on the "killed inside the bar" theory is how difficult it would be for foul play to occur in a small bar that was filled with people. If something like this did happen, I would think it would more likely happen in the much more isolated construction site. Brian could have perhaps been meeting some shady characters in that area, things went wrong, and he was then removed from the building. Also, for people that put a lot of stock in dogs picking up his scent out of the side of the building toward Wendy's and then stopping abruptly, this could help explain this (it's possible he was put into a vehicle waiting outside of the bar).

I'm still a proponent of the "very well concealed accident" theory, but the idea of foul play somewhere within an isolated section of the building, followed by the perpetrator(s) cleverly transporting his body out of the building, remains my #2 theory, IMO.

 

[george14]

I agree with you--but my only hangup on the "killed inside the bar" theory is how difficult it would be for foul play to occur in a small bar that was filled with people. If something like this did happen, I would think it would more likely happen in the much more isolated construction site. Brian could have perhaps been meeting some shady characters in that area, things went wrong, and he was then removed from the building. Also, for people that put a lot of stock in dogs picking up his scent out of the side of the building toward Wendy's and then stopping abruptly, this could help explain this (it's possible he was put into a vehicle waiting outside of the bar).

I'm still a proponent of the "very well concealed accident" theory, but the idea of foul play somewhere within an isolated section of the building, followed by the perpetrator(s) cleverly transporting his body out of the building, remains my #2 theory, IMO.

Well, my opinion hinges on the fact that it was after most of the people left the bar. And it was done by workers or maybe the band. Maybe this was answered somewhere else, but "everyone being accounted for entering/leaving the bar" includes the band and workers I assume? If not, then I think it's basically a 100% chance one of them knows something. I think that's when this gets messy because then people start talking about the "construction/emergency exit" and other things where there is no way to validate.

But to your point, I agree with that theory as well. Like we both said, look at it from a probability standpoint. The likelihood of a drunk guy somehow evading cameras inside the building, along with surrounding business cameras outside the building, and said guy just so happens to be missing? Yeah, not really buying he did all that. It's just so unreasonable and unlikely to think he cleverly did all of this. I am not saying my theory is rock solid, there could be some unknown component we are all missing, but I think he died that night and his body is either buried somewhere around the building or will never be found because it was burned/in a dump somewhere.

Then again, there's this: Unidentified Person Case
I remember doing a search/query and finding that there were only 2 missing men that matched the height, weight, race, age, date, and hair. Brian was one of them. I really wish I got an answer to this. It drives me nuts.