Found Deceased CA - Paul Miller, 51, Canadian missing in Joshua Tree National Park, San Bernardino Co., 13 Jul 2018

[Hatfield]

I believe upthread someone provided average speeds for a trail. 2 mph for someone somewhat fit. 1.5 mph for average. This varies substantially in different conditions, e.g. a lot of elevation gain, high altitude, heat, etc.

With that said, so much also depends on equipment, e.g. wearing appropriate hiking boots (that trail would be foolish without), carrying water, snacks, etc.

Thank you.

I found a good map of "49 Palms Oasis trail" and it makes more sense now on the timeline because it does say this:

"To reach the awesome oasis, you’ll hike 3 miles round trip with 350 feet of elevation gain,"

So if he only planned for a 3 mile round trip then he probably figured he would be back in 3 hours max. At 1.0 MPH walking 3 hours would be about right to contact wife around 12PM.

I am more inclined now to think he got lost and something bad happened. The trails seem very confusing because in the desert he may have went off course because distances are very deceiving. Many hikers will see something in the distance and head right for it and not realize it is much farther than they realize. I think he veered off the trail as it got hot and tried to get shelter and maybe got heat stroke. Probably did not bring near enough water or realize how darn hot it gets in desert.

Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park


We know he was at that 49 Palms Oasis Trail because of this:

"Park rangers eventually found Miller's vehicle at the 49 Palms Oasis trailhead"

Lost Palms Oasis

But this sort of note in the 1st link above makes me think he could have gotten easily lost:

"The trail has a separate access road into the national park with no ranger station. This is an added bonus for anyone passing through the high desert who would like to go on a great hike in Joshua Tree National Park without paying an entrance fee."

 

[Inthedetails]

Paul summed it up well. The U.S. is not only a large country, but our parks are maintained by many different jurisdictions.

I have never seen notices on windshields, but guest books are somewhat common. But…. the need to sign in by guest books is usually laxly enforced. In other parks, however, the Rangers will ask you to do it.

Likewise, some parks require that hikers receive a permit to hike more remote areas or areas known to be dangerous. I don’t know if JTNP requires permits or has a guest book sign in policy.

If he is on the trail that some of us think he was one, one thing that is noted about the trail is that admission is not required. I envision it as totally open to the public - whoever wants to hike it simply hikes it, without a ranger station stop-in.

Perhaps locals can verify.

We do know his car was found and that his wife knew where he intended to go.

jmo

 

[Hatfield]

I like this site for info and photos.

Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park

The 49 Palms Oasis trail is evidently 3 miles round trip. That would be described as “short”. The trail is also probably classified as “moderate”, but there are all sorts of ways to have an accident, judging from the photos.

2 hours would have been plenty for this trip for someone who gets regular exercise.

LOL....I had just found that same link and was coming to similar conclusions. Posted above in my Post #101.

 

[Inthedetails]

LOL....I had just found that same link and was coming to similar conclusions. Posted above in my Post #101.

We're all looking for some clue that will help find this guy - or at least make sense of what happened to him...and why there is no sign of him.

jmo

 

[RickshawFan]

Yes, I'm assuming he was on that shorter trail, which would seem do-able for a morning hike.

I haven't heard mention of specific health issues either - I'm just going by age, weight, height, and photo which are printed on the poster linked above. Don't anyone shoot me - he's an average guy and not "old" (he's in my age range, and I'm not old!) or "fat," but not exactly super athletic is what I'm getting at. It's possible he had a health issue on the trail that he obviously didn't expect.

Just thinking aloud, mulling what little info we do have. Opinion subject to change as we learn more.

jmo

I’m not sure the weight listed corresponds with the photo. The weight may be lower than average, the photo higher than average? It may be an old photo or old weight.

 

[PaulR]

Likewise, some parks require that hikers receive a permit to hike more remote areas or areas known to be dangerous. I don’t know if JTNP requires permits or has a guest book sign in policy.

According to Permits & Reservations - Joshua Tree National Park (U.S. National Park Service), "A permit is not required for day hiking in the backcountry."

 

[RickshawFan]

Thank you.

I found a good map of "49 Palms Oasis trail" and it makes more sense now on the timeline because it does say this:

"To reach the awesome oasis, you’ll hike 3 miles round trip with 350 feet of elevation gain,"

So if he only planned for a 3 mile round trip then he probably figured he would be back in 3 hours max. At 1.0 MPH walking 3 hours would be about right to contact wife around 12PM.

I am more inclined now to think he got lost and something bad happened. The trails seem very confusing because in the desert he may have went off course because distances are very deceiving. Many hikers will see something in the distance and head right for it and not realize it is much farther than they realize. I think he veered off the trail as it got hot and tried to get shelter and maybe got heat stroke. Probably did not bring near enough water or realize how darn hot it gets in desert.

Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park


We know he was at that 49 Palms Oasis Trail because of this:

"Park rangers eventually found Miller's vehicle at the 49 Palms Oasis trailhead"

Lost Palms Oasis

But this sort of note in the 1st link above makes me think he could have gotten easily lost:

"The trail has a separate access road into the national park with no ranger station. This is an added bonus for anyone passing through the high desert who would like to go on a great hike in Joshua Tree National Park without paying an entrance fee."

I understood the last paragraph to mean: “You get to the trailhead by a road that doesn’t go past a ranger booth, therefore no fee.”

 

[Inthedetails]

I’m not sure the weight listed corresponds with the photo. The weight may be lower than average, the photo higher than average? It may be an old photo or old weight.

The photo, I am assuming, is somewhat accurate to what he looks like and what shape he is in.

jmo

 

[Hatfield]

JMO
Im not sure he realized how hot it was going to get so fast. If it was 86 F at 9am before he even started, then that is HOT. Because temps rise quickly and even a small hike will make his internal temperature increase. By 11 am it would have been over 90 and getting very hot and if he started to panic and walk faster it would have made things worse.

I am leaning this way now because the timeline checks out. I think he underestimated the heat and desert. Plus there is enough up and down to make him have to exert extra energy.

I am really afraid he ran into heat stroke and veered off the trail for cover. It is surprising that searchers were not able to locate him though.

However other incidents in the park do show that people can get lost out there and if he veered off trail then searchers may not have looked in right direction.

This doesnt sound good at all.

 

[Dushi]

I understand that he could have veered off the path looking for cover.
But why wouldn't the dogs have picked up his scent at the beginning and other places along the trail?

 

[Hatfield]

I understand that he could have veered off the path looking for cover.
But why wouldn't the dogs have picked up his scent at the beginning and other places along the trail?

That is a really good question. I also read that there were no foot signs of him at all so that points in the other direction that this could be something else going on here.

I hope investigators look into their relationship and try to find witnesses who last saw them at motel or wherever they stayed.

Finding a witness will be key to determine if something else is going on here.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

I can't say how it works for all parks (since some are run by the Feds, some by the state, some by counties, etc.) but the state parks around here have a kind of guestbook where you fill in your name, destination, time in and time out. I remember one park where you could fill out a form with this information and put it in a dropbox in case you were concerned about security. It's encouraged to tell friends/family where you are going and when you'll be back so they can contact the ranger station.

This is a good practice. The US has so much wilderness, and so many trailheads far into the back country, that it would be impossible for rangers to scan parking lots. The best practice here is to tell someone where you are going and what time to expect you back.

Many wilderness areas have trail registers, oftentimes because in a designated wilderness you aren’t allowed to take groups of more than 10-12 in a cluster. You are required in those areas to have a gigantic tag on your pack, a copy of which goes into a box at the trailhead. A ranger can check the box.

National Parks have different methods, depending..... I have been at a National Park where everyone was ordered out of the backcountry because of blizzards. A helicopter kept track of us, counting every so often (we could actually see them in the helicopter from below pointing and counting). So yes, a National Park might very well keep tabs on folks. But keeping track of dayhikers at a National Park where there maybe millions of visitors, no.....

Paul summed it up well. The U.S. is not only a large country, but our parks are maintained by many different jurisdictions.

I have never seen notices on windshields, but guest books are somewhat common. But…. the need to sign in by guest books is usually laxly enforced. In other parks, however, the Rangers will ask you to do it.

You are right, I think it varies by the park.

Some parks have a combination. For example, Yellowstone makes no effort to track the thousands of daily visitors in the popular areas, but I think they require permits to hike the more remote or dangerous areas.

I have been in others with few visitors where a Ranger asked me to sign a guestbook that was more focused on how many were in in my family and where I lived than what I intended to do in the Park. I was then on my own regarding whether to stay in the easy part, or hike remote areas.

Apologies for the extensive quoting, and thanks for the information about how these things work or are done in the US. I agree that the more fragmented situation in the US makes it much more difficult to have a single overriding policy regarding hikers' safely compared to the UK, but it doesn't mean that hikers themselves, as a community, couldn't establish a common system for their mutual benefit*.

Here it's quite normal for national park staff and even passing police to pull into a car park and do a quick check of notes on dashboards, especially towards the end of the day. It's also common for hillwalkers themselves to do a quick scout round the carpark when they return from a hike and to raise the alarm if the occupants of another vehicle are significantly overdue. This is just something that people do for each other.

Incidentally, here in the UK the mountain rescue teams are made up of unpaid volunteers, just as the cave rescue teams are.

* As an aside, when the bombing of the London Tube happened in 2005, the emergency services had problems with victims' retrieved phones and not knowing who the next of kin were amongst all of the lists of contacts. From that came the ICE code - In Case of Emergency. You can show the letters ICE against the name of your next of kin contact number so the authorities know who to contact in an emergency. The idea came from a paramedic.

In Case of Emergency - Wikipedia

 

[carbuff]

Miscellaneous:

Yes, Yellowstone Park requires permits for backcountry but not day hikes. Been there, done that.

Many New England trailheads use the note-on-the-dashboard system, such as it is. It's much more common for national forest areas that aren't staffed or even patrolled regularly. They used to use the signin boxes but nobody ever remembers to sign out when they're done, so it winds up being less useful than you would think.

Just because his car was found in the parking lot doesn't mean he was ever there himself.

 

[Inthedetails]

Just because his car was found in the parking lot doesn't mean he was ever there himself.

Snipped by me.

As much as I think he was overcome by some health issue, I do appreciate that we need to be open to all possibilities.

* Someone drove his car to the location - he himself was never there.
* He drove to the location, but went away in another car and never was on the trail.
* He drove to the location, but something happened to him before he got on the trail - health issue that caused him to wander, foul play?
* He walked the trail and somehow didn't leave a footprint....which makes me wonder if anyone else on the trail saw him? Was there anyone else on the trail at all? So few details!


Thinking aloud, brainstorming.

 

[Hatfield]

One reason why people are hesitant to put a note on their car dashboard is because they are worried about theft or break-in of their car.

Its a perfectly valid concern because it basically tells a crook what time you left and when you will be back. So a thief knows they have time to break into your car and steal stuff before you get back from your hike.

That is why drop boxes were a good idea but like was already mentioned people dont remember to put note that they are back and left by car.

There does need to be a better way but note on windshield has valid concerns about theft.
Lots of issues there. People around the state parks are sometimes transients and desparate to steal stuff.

 

[PaulR]

Here it's quite normal for national park staff and even passing police to pull into a car park and do a quick check of notes on dashboards, especially towards the end of the day. It's also common for hillwalkers themselves to do a quick scout round the carpark when they return from a hike and to raise the alarm if the occupants of another vehicle are significantly overdue. This is just something that people do for each other.

Incidentally, here in the UK the mountain rescue teams are made up of unpaid volunteers, just as the cave rescue teams are.

I believe park rangers can and do a check at the end of the day, since the park is closing. I don't know how big the parking lots (or carparks) are in the UK, but here they can be huge and sometimes completely full. Here is an article mentioning a state park, about an hour's drive from Seattle, with over 200K annual visitors. There are 108 spots and they can easily fill up during a nice summer weekend early in the day. And this is just for the trailhead for a waterfall hike: https://www.heraldnet.com/news/parking-a-constant-problem-at-wallace-falls-state-park/

Many of our rescue teams are unpaid volunteers as well, but usually work with law enforcement and the park service to coordinate search and rescue.

 

[RickshawFan]

Responding to MelmothTheLost (on my iPad I can’t select text in this forum, so I can’t selectively quote)...

In the US we could definitely use an informal “hikers for hikers” checking system in parking lots. It might encourage thieves to break in, though, since they’d know the window they’d have to do the crime and get away? I’ve had my car clouted at an AT trailhead.

US search and rescue folks are generally volunteers. However, military sometimes participates either with equipment (e.g. helicopter) or because search and rescue expertise helps with troop preparedness.

Heck no, on the ICE acronym for US-ers. Yowza!

 

[RickshawFan]

I’m beginning to think all hikers should be carrying a Spot or similar. You’d just need a single use device for a situation like this in Joshua Tree.

 

[carbuff]

In most areas in the US, hikers do check on each other. I know Mr. Carbuff on returning from hikes has called in cars that look like their people might be overdue.

People around here tend to leave their cars unlocked so somebody doesn't have to break a window to get in.

 

[Hatfield]

I’m beginning to think all hikers should be carrying a Spot or similar. You’d just need a single use device for a situation like this in Joshua Tree.

It would be a great way to start a small business and rent them to hikers on popular trails. The casual hiker usually doesnt invest in things like that but if there was a rental place right at the trail head I bet it would get lots of use.

I found my new business LOL