Found Deceased CA - Paul Miller, 51, Canadian missing in Joshua Tree National Park, San Bernardino Co., 13 Jul 2018

[RickshawFan]

Evidently, the hiker's cell phone was found in the car:

Search for missing Guelph man reaches day 5

 

[RickshawFan]

Miller’s vehicle was located in the 49 Palms Oasis parking lot.

Paul Miller’s car, found by officials on Friday

For a while there, I thought what looks like a car hood might actually be a shade for the SUV.

 

[RickshawFan]

Yeah, it could be one of the small ones. Or it could be one of the new big ones. These are the hiking models I'm aware of coming in grey and black: CamelBak Ethos Hydration Daypack 82719

CamelBak Alpine Explorer 100 oz Hydration Pack | Steve Weiss - Mountain Enthusiast (I was coveting this one in REI the other day.)

But even the biggest one is still only 3 liters and as you say around 2400cc. That's about half the water he would have needed. So yeah, he must have been counting on being able to refill at the oasis.

I'm back to wondering if he somehow didn't go to the trail he thought he was going to.

Thanks for the note widening the grey/black possibilities. I agree there would be more cause for optimism if he took one of these models.
I've never seen the Ethos.

 

[RickshawFan]

Here's what I was looking for on the hiking boot requirement. It was indeed Bryce. And I mis-spoke when I said Vibram was required: actually lug soles are required (which often ends up being Vibram, as in the Ranger's example.) And you have to prove you have lug soles before you buy your tickets!

Full Moon Hikes - Bryce Canyon National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

 

[PaulR]

Interesting photos of the trail on Trip Advisor:

Sign at the trailhead that warns hikers that people have died on the trail due to the heat and steps to take, including staying off the trail between 10am and 4pm, bringing enough water, etc.
View from the highest point of the trail - you can see civilization. Maybe not the shortest walk but at least you can see where to go.

Also this page mentions that there is this text on the trail map at the kiosk (presumably at the parking lot):

“Last year there were five helicopter rescues and eight carryouts from the 49 Palms Oasis Trail. Only one was because of injury. The remainder were due to medical conditions such as asthma, diabetes, or heart trouble.”

Assuming there's water at the oasis which is what it sounds like - even if Paul only set out with half as much water as he needed, he could have filled up there. Or just stayed at the oasis and waited for rescue, which he would have expected since he apparently told his wife when to expect him back, presumably with the expectation that she'd call the park service. Even if there wasn't water to refill his Camelbak, there is shade at the oasis.

Now we know there are multiple rescues at this trail per year, the blog entry that mentions the kiosk was 2014 so there were 13 rescues in 2013, maybe more in recent years as Joshua Tree becomes more popular. It sounds like almost a regular occurrence. Perhaps this is why the rescuers are so confused.

Heat exhaustion can make people do strange things but I'd expect them to have seen some evidence of him on the trail.

 

[?mysterian?]

I've been asking myself the very same question. I mean, literally NO sign of him? Yeah... makes me think that's not where he was.

One of the things I'm wondering about:
Since he was reported missing so quickly, and the search started not long after that, what's a reasonable amount of territory he could've covered in that amount of time? I guess I'm wondering how probable it is that he's still in the area, if he was at all? Or could the searchers have covered the area he could've been in, if he was there, and possibly determined he was maybe not there/went elsewhere?

ETA: I know the distance he could possibly go would be to the oasis and back, but I'm wondering, given the physical shape we think he's in, what would be a reasonable search area if he got lost/took another trail/etc.?

 

[PaulR]

Evidently, the hiker's cell phone was found in the car:

Search for missing Guelph man reaches day 5

There doesn't appear to be any cell phone coverage on this trail, but still it seems strange to leave behind a cell phone. Besides the cell phone being handy anyway (offline maps, being able to take photos, GPS/compass built in, maybe getting lucky with a cell phone ping) it will get stolen if the car is broken into.

 

[Snoopster]

I haven't read all of this thread, so my apologies if my comments are off base, but a couple of comments...
1) OntarioMom mentioned that in Southern Ontario we are used to very humid heat in the summer, and that perhaps Paul didn't recognize that the temp was as hot as it was due to lack of humidity. I agree that this might have been a contributing risk.

2) Regarding comments about the quick reporting by Paul's wife, I'm guessing that they knew about the risks and incidents in the past and had an 'agreement' that if Paul didn't show up within 2.5 hours then she was allowed to be worried. He likely said that to her to appease her concerns. She probably held off for another hour beyond that, pacing, and then called it in.

Sorry guys, but when your wives are concerned, we know that you don't listen! We also know that you often console us (because you care) by offering up an option within our control if, later, our concerns seem warranted.

 

[SeesSeas]

I haven't read all of this thread, so my apologies if my comments are off base, but a couple of comments...
1) OntarioMom mentioned that in Southern Ontario we are used to very humid heat in the summer, and that perhaps Paul didn't recognize that the temp was as hot as it was due to lack of humidity. I agree that this might have been a contributing risk.

2) Regarding comments about the quick reporting by Paul's wife, I'm guessing that they knew about the risks and incidents in the past and had an 'agreement' that if Paul didn't show up within 2.5 hours then she was allowed to be worried. He likely said that to her to appease her concerns. She probably held off for another hour beyond that, pacing, and then called it in.

Sorry guys, but when your wives are concerned, we know that you don't listen! We also know that you often console us (because you care) by offering up an option within our control if, later, our concerns seem warranted.

If I chose to not join the hike, my option would have been to ride with him in the car to the trailhead; set up a portable chair with attached umbrella, portable fan, lemonade and kindle.

 

[Suglo]

Yeah, I don't know how he would have wound up elsewhere. Wandering off the trail is more likely.

But was the hood up like that when they found it?

We had this same conversation last year in the disappearance of Rachel Nguyen and Joseph Orbeso at JTNP. It looks like LE checks to make sure the car is working.

Found Deceased - CA - Rachel Nguyen, 20, & Joseph Orbeso, 21, Joshua Tree Nat'l Park, 27 July 2017 #1

 

[Snoopster]

If I chose to not join the hike, my option would have been to ride with him in the car to the trailhead; set up a portable chair with attached umbrella, portable fan, lemonade and kindle.

Well, I would have stayed in the air conditioned room!

 

[jash]

Search for Guelph man scales back in California desert

Jeff Groenewald, senior leader of Lakeside Church where Miller is a member, said in a phone interview on Wednesday that the community remains hopeful and is ready to help.

“We expect Stephanie, Paul’s wife, is going to be arriving home soon and we just stand ready to help and we’re trying to figure out how best to do that,” he said.
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Groenewald added that he has heard from others that Miller was an experienced hiker.

 

[SeesSeas]

Well, I would have stayed in the air conditioned room!

Ahhhh. . . you'd be 'cool' and comfortable, but you wouldn't know if he actually started walking on the trail.
I'd know, from the comfort of my umbrella chair sipping lemonade, if he actually set foot on the trail.

 

[RickshawFan]

If I chose to not join the hike, my option would have been to ride with him in the car to the trailhead; set up a portable chair with attached umbrella, portable fan, lemonade and kindle.

That would likely be dangerous, too. You'd be sitting out there scorching in that deathly heat. And she might have had a health condition of some such.

You could have packed yourself in ice though....

 

[Suglo]

Search for Guelph man scales back in California desert

Jeff Groenewald, senior leader of Lakeside Church where Miller is a member, said in a phone interview on Wednesday that the community remains hopeful and is ready to help.

“We expect Stephanie, Paul’s wife, is going to be arriving home soon and we just stand ready to help and we’re trying to figure out how best to do that,” he said.
.
.
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Groenewald added that he has heard from others that Miller was an experienced hiker.

This is so tragic. I can’t imagine how she is feeling having to go home to Canada without him and without knowing where he is. It would drive me mad

 

[RickshawFan]

...
Groenewald added that he has heard from others that Miller was an experienced hiker.

The problem is, there's "experienced" and actually experienced. "Experienced hikers" do a lot of crazy things around here, and most SAR operations are for people who consider themselves "experienced." Often, they're "going for a short hike and didn't need to bring water...." or "wearing jeans", or, or... Yeppers, ever so "experienced".

If you're getting bored with lack of updates and would like to read some SAR reports about people who were "experienced" and several fatalities (but not desert), try this link written by a friend (Oregon Cascades): News relevant to traditional mountain climbing

Yosemite: 3 Terrifying True Stories from Yosemite's Search and Rescue

All kinds of stories! r/nosleep - I'm a Search and Rescue Officer for the US Forest Service, I have some stories to tell (Part 4!)

Google Search and Rescue Stories

 

[carbuff]

And experienced doesn't automatically mean smart, either.

And even the most experienced hiker can run into medical issues or unexpected conditions.

 

[PaulR]

Hold on, all we know is that the Church leader heard from others that Miller was experienced. That doesn't mean he said he was experienced or thought he was. I have a friend who thinks three mile hikes are long and would describe me as "experienced" for going on semi-frequent short hikes - I'd never describe myself that way. I save that for the people who decide to try the PCT or AT. They're experienced. I'm just going for a walk with a little elevation.

 

[SeesSeas]

Hold on, all we know is that the Church leader heard from others that Miller was experienced. That doesn't mean he said he was experienced or thought he was. I have a friend who thinks three mile hikes are long and would describe me as "experienced" for going on semi-frequent short hikes - I'd never describe myself that way. I save that for the people who decide to try the PCT or AT. They're experienced. I'm just going for a walk with a little elevation.

I hiked 4 days on the AT, 3 days in GC, and I don't consider myself 'experienced'. But others may view me as 'experienced', because all they do is walk the shopping malls.

 

[carbuff]

Mr. Carbuff is experienced in New England; he hikes 20 or 30 days a year, much of it above tree level in the White Mountains, and makes excursions to other parts of the northeast. But he's always cautious and would be a lot more cautious about hiking in a strange area.