rosesfromangels
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I think that is an error?
Found Deceased CA - Paul Miller, 51, Canadian missing in Joshua Tree Natl Park, San Bernardino Co., 13 Jul 2018 #2
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I've been following this case since the beginning and have been meaning to chime in for a while. It seems a lot of people following the case aren't very familiar with the conditions in which he went missing, which I think is leading some astray. I live in LA and spend a lot of time hiking and backpacking in the Mojave desert, and I wanted to add a few observations. I have two interrelated theories.
First of all, I can't overstate how intensely hot and desiccating the summer in the desert is. It was already in the 90s by the time he started his hike around 9 AM and would just have been getting hotter. Full sun, no shade on the trail. The dryness of the desert coupled with temperatures like that dries your body out in a way you wouldn't expect coming from a more humid climate. You get dehydrated without necessarily getting thirsty first, as the air is literally sucking moisture out of your skin. This took me a while to get used to (I grew up on the east coast), and I still sometimes get intense headaches from dehydration while hiking if I haven't been drinking enough (and I drink a lot of water). It was said he had a camelbak with him. That may have held up to 2-3 liters, which sounds like a lot but you can go through so much water so quickly in the desert, especially in that heat. He may have gone through the water he had with him, expecting to find more at the oasis, and then being disappointed to see that it in fact had only a small, stagnant pool that would not have been good to drink without serious treatment.
Though I love the desert, I generally avoid it in summer for obvious reasons, but I did actually do a short, similar hike to the one Paul went on the week after he went missing. I was in an area further west of JTree and it was hot, but actually overcast that day, so the temps were more in the high 80s with a nice breeze and no direct sun, so it seemed totally doable. Similar distance and elevation gain as Paul's hike, and I was shocked at how quickly I ran out of water and was getting lightheaded from the heat and exertion hiking uphill. I can't imagine what it must have felt like to Paul on that day hiking in hotter temps in full sun. When I was hiking, I took lots of breaks, and if the sun were out I would have definitely been searching for any little bit of shade where I could find it. I know a lot of people have questioned why Paul would have left the trail. My theory is that at some point on the hike, Paul likely got really overheated, may have finished his water too early, or was rationing it in a way that left him dehydrated, and searched for shade, which would have taken him off trail, possibly a great distance. After resting in the shade he may have gotten lost trying to get back to trail, or he may have already been suffering from serious heat stroke and expired in his resting place.
My second theory is related to what his intended destination would have been. If I were involved in the search, one of my questions for his wife would have been, what guidebooks and resources was Paul using to plan the trip? We know he planned to hike the 49 Palms Oasis, and I think he did, but did he intend to stop there? I hadn't thought of this originally, but was recently reading a hiking book on Joshua Tree and came across something interesting. Somewhat surprisingly, there are not that many guidebooks to JTree that specifically focus on hiking. One of the few (and generally listed as the best one online) is Patty Furbush's On Foot in Joshua Tree National Park. It's the one I have; it's out of print, but you can get cheap copies on Amazon and they also still have copies available at the visitor centers in the park last I checked. Right after the write up on the 49 Palms Oasis trail is a write up on 49 Palms Canyon, which is the canyon where the oasis is located and which extends further south than the trail. It's listed as strenuous and difficult, but the beginning of the description says that only 1/2 mile from the oasis is a spring, more palms, and willows. Knowing that could have been very tempting to Paul, especially if he were keen on spotting some bighorn sheep. You'd be more likely to find them up there than at the oasis near a popular trail, and 1/2 mile sounds like nothing. I know people have also questioned his motivation for this hike, not believing he could be that motivated just to take pictures of sheep. But keep in mind that this was a big trip for him, very far from home and celebrating a big occasion. He probably knew he wasn't likely to make this trip again, possibly ever, possibly any time soon. He wanted to make it count, and seeing desert bighorn sheep is really rare and special. I backpack in remote areas of the park, and I've never seen any. I would love to, but I have the possibility to visit the park any time I want so it's not as urgent to me. If I felt like this were my one chance, I might go a bit above and beyond to try to make that happen. Lured by the possibility of finding sheep, Paul might have kept going and gotten hurt boulder scrambling up canyon. I would expect that SAR would have searched the canyon, but again he might have also gotten overheated and crawled under a boulder for shade, expired, and been missed by the search teams.
Sorry, that was way more than I intended it to be! But to sum up, I feel fairly confident that this is indeed a missing hiker case, and that Paul is still in the park waiting to be found. I hope that he will be soon, for his family's sense of closure. I'm going to be in the area in early November and am planning to check out the 49 Palm oasis trail, and I'll definitely be looking for him if he hasn't been found by then.
First of all, I can't overstate how intensely hot and desiccating the summer in the desert is. It was already in the 90s by the time he started his hike around 9 AM and would just have been getting hotter. Full sun, no shade on the trail. The dryness of the desert coupled with temperatures like that dries your body out in a way you wouldn't expect coming from a more humid climate. You get dehydrated without necessarily getting thirsty first, as the air is literally sucking moisture out of your skin. This took me a while to get used to (I grew up on the east coast), and I still sometimes get intense headaches from dehydration while hiking if I haven't been drinking enough (and I drink a lot of water). It was said he had a camelbak with him. That may have held up to 2-3 liters, which sounds like a lot but you can go through so much water so quickly in the desert, especially in that heat. He may have gone through the water he had with him, expecting to find more at the oasis, and then being disappointed to see that it in fact had only a small, stagnant pool that would not have been good to drink without serious treatment.
Though I love the desert, I generally avoid it in summer for obvious reasons, but I did actually do a short, similar hike to the one Paul went on the week after he went missing. I was in an area further west of JTree and it was hot, but actually overcast that day, so the temps were more in the high 80s with a nice breeze and no direct sun, so it seemed totally doable. Similar distance and elevation gain as Paul's hike, and I was shocked at how quickly I ran out of water and was getting lightheaded from the heat and exertion hiking uphill. I can't imagine what it must have felt like to Paul on that day hiking in hotter temps in full sun. When I was hiking, I took lots of breaks, and if the sun were out I would have definitely been searching for any little bit of shade where I could find it. I know a lot of people have questioned why Paul would have left the trail. My theory is that at some point on the hike, Paul likely got really overheated, may have finished his water too early, or was rationing it in a way that left him dehydrated, and searched for shade, which would have taken him off trail, possibly a great distance. After resting in the shade he may have gotten lost trying to get back to trail, or he may have already been suffering from serious heat stroke and expired in his resting place.
My second theory is related to what his intended destination would have been. If I were involved in the search, one of my questions for his wife would have been, what guidebooks and resources was Paul using to plan the trip? We know he planned to hike the 49 Palms Oasis, and I think he did, but did he intend to stop there? I hadn't thought of this originally, but was recently reading a hiking book on Joshua Tree and came across something interesting. Somewhat surprisingly, there are not that many guidebooks to JTree that specifically focus on hiking. One of the few (and generally listed as the best one online) is Patty Furbush's On Foot in Joshua Tree National Park. It's the one I have; it's out of print, but you can get cheap copies on Amazon and they also still have copies available at the visitor centers in the park last I checked. Right after the write up on the 49 Palms Oasis trail is a write up on 49 Palms Canyon, which is the canyon where the oasis is located and which extends further south than the trail. It's listed as strenuous and difficult, but the beginning of the description says that only 1/2 mile from the oasis is a spring, more palms, and willows. Knowing that could have been very tempting to Paul, especially if he were keen on spotting some bighorn sheep. You'd be more likely to find them up there than at the oasis near a popular trail, and 1/2 mile sounds like nothing. I know people have also questioned his motivation for this hike, not believing he could be that motivated just to take pictures of sheep. But keep in mind that this was a big trip for him, very far from home and celebrating a big occasion. He probably knew he wasn't likely to make this trip again, possibly ever, possibly any time soon. He wanted to make it count, and seeing desert bighorn sheep is really rare and special. I backpack in remote areas of the park, and I've never seen any. I would love to, but I have the possibility to visit the park any time I want so it's not as urgent to me. If I felt like this were my one chance, I might go a bit above and beyond to try to make that happen. Lured by the possibility of finding sheep, Paul might have kept going and gotten hurt boulder scrambling up canyon. I would expect that SAR would have searched the canyon, but again he might have also gotten overheated and crawled under a boulder for shade, expired, and been missed by the search teams.
Sorry, that was way more than I intended it to be! But to sum up, I feel fairly confident that this is indeed a missing hiker case, and that Paul is still in the park waiting to be found. I hope that he will be soon, for his family's sense of closure. I'm going to be in the area in early November and am planning to check out the 49 Palm oasis trail, and I'll definitely be looking for him if he hasn't been found by then.
ElementalLaura
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Detectivediva
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Ummm I'm thinking you are being sarcastic but just in case not...the likelihood of the Canadian mafia (that's funny in itself) following him from Canada to various state parks and grabbing and stuffing him in a car just before he headed to Vegas to catch his flight...is rather low. As a matter of fact I know a few bookies who'd give you 200,000 to 1 odds.
What I will say is that visiting Desert Hot Springs (near JT)...It's apparent that drugs are a big thing there. It's scary in some places. If something happened to Paul (other than the most likely scenarios including accident or self harm) then drug-motivated robbery would be the most likely scenario IMHO.
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Auntie Cipation
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When his wife said he didn't take his ID nor his phone and she had those, does that necessarily mean he left them with her? Couldn't it also mean he drove with them, left them in the rental car, and she *now* has them?
I assume the rental car was locked and he had a key?
I'd imagine the Canyon would be way way less popular than the regular hike, especially in summer. Most people never leave the established trails. I've never done 49 palms, but I have hiked the Lost Palms Oasis trail in the southern part of the park, which is a much less popular area of the park, and the trail is much longer. There were still a ton of people on the trail, but after the oasis, it was not that hard to scramble up some boulders and find a shady spot by ourselves for lunch. It's still super hot out there, and I wouldn't be surprised if no one has hiked past the oasis at 49 palms since Paul went missing, apart from the searchers (presuming they did). It would be great if they released GPS tracks of the areas that were searched.
Hippononymous
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Great insights, CPL. Thank you!
The mafia in Canada is real.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4096448
Guelph has been rumoured for a long time to be a place where they retire to, with questionable business that exist yet noone ever is seen using them.
<modsnip - info brought over from another forum>
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4096448
Guelph has been rumoured for a long time to be a place where they retire to, with questionable business that exist yet noone ever is seen using them.
<modsnip - info brought over from another forum>
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It's a bit of a joke. But at the end of Donnie Brasco Al Pacino's character knew he was going to be whacked he left the house he left all his jewelry money rings at home because thats how you do it. But I really think Paul is in Old Mexico myself. A dead guy with all BLACK on would be as easy to find as bird *advertiser censored* on A brand new Ferrari red "russo".
MaryG12
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It's possible.
Also - did he leave by himself at the hotel when he returned to JT, or with someone?
..............................................................
Welcome CPL593H! Those are great insights, about hiking in the desert in the middle of summer. I really cannot fathom hiking through the Mojave Desert in the summer. I'm sure it's decent in the wintertime.
neesaki
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Yes, it makes no sense to go to the desert for a hiking vacation in the heat of the summer. So could there have been an undisclosed reason to go there at that time?
Also
it was the last day of the trip, the day they were returning home... and,
The wife didn’t go as planned
Cell phone left behind
ID left behind
No scent on or near trail
Conflicting timeline if one is to believe the Neal witness
Just points to ponder.
Yes, it makes no sense to go hiking in the desert in the summer, but that's when most people think of vacation time, often because they have kids, but even after the kids are grown a lot of people still associate summer with vacation. And this was a trip to celebrate their anniversary, so maybe was timed to coincide. Tons of people still go to JTree, Grand Canyon, Zion, etc (all the places they went) in the summer. Most of them just drive through the park, stopping occasionally at exhibits and vista points, maybe walking a few simple nature trails. I am very curious about what hiking they did the day before in the park. My feeling is that it wasn't really "hiking" it was more like those simple nature trails. And the problem with 49 Palms is that it's presented by the park as an easy hike, but it does actually have decent amount elevation gain for the short distance (662 ft of gain and loss in the 3.2 mile roundtrip), which works out to a steady average grade of 9%. It's not strenuous, but in that heat you're really gonna feel it.
Last day of the trip, of a trip that was clearly a big deal for them and that they weren't likely to repeat soon, makes it even more likely to me that he'd want to squeeze one last hurrah in, especially if he thought he might see bighorn sheep.
Leaving cell and ID behind -- TBH I usually leave my wallet in the car when I go hiking or backpacking. It's just extra weight and I don't need it. I bring my phone, but I'm a lot younger than Paul (early 30s) and so I take photos and videos with it to post on instagram later.
No scent is not uncommon in desert conditions. I wouldn't put a ton of weight there.
And as far as the timeline goes, it's not a huge discrepancy in time and could be chalked up to just misremembering/misreporting.
November through April, it's the best! But yes, if anyone learns something here -- stay away in summer, and always bring more water than you think you'll need no matter what time of year.
There aren't many mountain lions in the park, but they do tend to congregate around the oases and other water sources where they can prey on sheep and mule deer. I would be really surprised if one attacked an adult man while alive, but it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for one to come across him near or after death. But if that were so, it should make it easier for searchers to find him, as that would scatter his belongings and leave scraps of clothing, etc.
RickshawFan
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There's an assumption he went on his hike the morning he was to leave town, consistent with his wife's account. He could actually have gone the day before (there's no telling when his car got to the parking lot), at dusk when it was cooler, and for some reason she didn't want to say so (maybe they got in an argument?).
A hike the evening before rather than the day of departure may explain why the dogs didn't pick up a scent.
neesaki
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Welcome to Websleuths, CPL, and thank you very much for your insight , especially with respect to your experience in the desert environment.
I can see some elements of this scenario, but have a hard time seeing how each and every one of them could be met in order to come to this conclusion. But that’s just me, the eternal skeptic, lol.
On the other hand, we don’t know if he has a history of being impulsive, and / or lacks planning skills as nothing’s been said about that one way or the other. Considering his education in Environmental Studies and Physical Geography it does seem he would have had more awareness of his environment than say, the average person. Jmo
crhedBngr
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Not long-winded, but very precise description of hiking in JTNP and the hazards in summer. What you indicated above makes sense, and I can see how Paul thought he could get some photos of the bighorns and still make the flight home. I didn't realize that the oasis and spring were only .5 mile.
I, too, live in Southern CA, and I walk nearly every day, including some of the hottest days. I blow though water quickly as well in 90+ degrees F./32 degrees C., and usually end up replenishing my 32-ounce water supply after only 3 miles. Also, the extreme heat has made me dizzy at times, in which case I've headed home quickly.
Thanks for your very detailed explanation.
Hoping and praying Paul is found soon.
ETA: I'm a bit puzzled as to why he thought he could get those photos and still make an international flight on time--you are supposed to be at the airport 3 hours before the plane takes off. As others have said--impulsive behavior?
Lastly, I thought I read that hikers could cache water throughout the park. I'm wondering if Paul did that as well, thinking he would be well prepared for the morning hike.
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The timing of the hike is problematic for most people, who would be anxious about missing their flight (I know I would be), but this situation really reminds me of my brother-in-law and I could see him doing something like that. He's a voracious birdwatcher, and if there were a bird he hadn't seen before and he thought he had a good chance of seeing it the last morning, he would totally go out by himself (against his wife's wishes), promising to be back in time. And he often gets carried away and goes longer than originally intended. Otherwise he's a responsible and reasonable 40 year old man, but his passion for birdwatching can sometimes lead him to make selfish and irresponsible decisions. I have no idea if Paul was that sort of person and spotting and taking photos of wildlife was his passion, but those sorts of people do exist.
Re: caching water. You can cache water in Joshua Tree, but that's generally for long, multi-day through hikes that would require carrying several gallons otherwise. Like if you were doing the California Riding and Hiking trail starting at Covington Flat, you could cache water near the Juniper Flats trailhead to pick up on your way. For a short out-and-back hike like this, you'd have to do the hike to cache the water along the way, so there's just no point.
loveisthemovement
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There are many option for gambling in Ontario. Casinos, horses etc.
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