What might a biological attack on the U.S. look like?

[Tip and Mitten]

Yes, a bit conspiratorial, but what do we make of this AFM polio-like onslaught? (Sorry source is the Daily Mail but I wanted to make this click-baity and a bit lurid!)

More sickened by polio-like illness: More than 120 kids in
22 states diagnosed or suspected to have mysterious virus

Any biology majors with us? Could this sort of virus be spread by a foreign power?

 

[MarziPanda]

Unlikely. When you hear galloping, think horses not zebras. This is possibly caused by people not vaccinating. Anti-vaccers might say 'why do you care, you're safe if you're vaccinated', but the unvaccinated also give the virus a space to mutate. Vaccinated people are not immune to the virus if it has mutated. This is likely to be a known virus that has mutated or a new virus entirely. Were foreign powers to issue a biological attack, it would probably be way worse. There aren't many ways of spreading this sort of thing on purpose without risking your own country and/or agents.

 

[rosemadderlake]

It effects children. And most recover. Per the article posted.

Here is an outbreak chart. Something in the warm summer months, especially?

 

[sheenasinagothgang]

The thread title itself is a good question, though. And if not now, when?

 

[Amonet]

It's worth looking up the enteroviruses named on the article on the CDC website.

It seems that enteroviruses aren't vaccinated for and can very rarely have this condition as an effect, and the enteroviruses in question mostly affect small children and the CDC said that the one I looked up is most active in summer and fall.

So it might not have anything to do with vaccination. I don't consider tabloids like the DM to be the best sources for reading about communicable diseases, they tend to do a better job of spreading fear than solid information.

ETA I'm not familiar with West Nile virus, but if that's also producing some of these cases and you can vaccinate against it, then I would say vaccination is the best way to protect children from some extremely nasty and sometimes deadly diseases.

I worry that a lot of people nowadays don't even understand very much about how immunity develops and they think that a healthy diet is enough.

 

[rosemadderlake]

^^^so true Amonet ^^^

I was one of the first to receive the polio sugar cube vax, as a baby in the late 50's.

And I had a much purer diet back then... Nothing could have prevented polio were it not for the vaccine.

Also back in my day there was a sequence of vaccines, one at a time. I do believe in one vaccine at a time. Why? Certain doctrines of medicine know that we fight one illness at a time. The trend towards multi vaccines is a mistake. IMO

I started insisting on one vaccine at a time instead of the 5/1 for my animals. Big difference in their reactions. It doesn't overwhelm the body.

I wonder if this virus is tick borne? The span of states makes me wonder... Some common denometer will surface...

While I don't think this case is bio war, I agree the title of this thread and discussion is needed and relevant.

 

[bluesneakers]

Vox Sentences: A mysterious, paralyzing disease hits the US

• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning against a mysterious new illness that’s appeared in children in 22 states this year and is quickly spreading across the US. [TicToc Bloomberg]

• So far, the CDC has received 127 reports of suspected cases of the disease, which is called acute flaccid myelitis. AFM is a polio-like condition that affects the nervous system and may cause paralysis. [Twitter / AJ+]

• AFM first grabbed attention in 2014 with 120 reported cases. Yet the condition indicates an every-other-year pattern, with the number of afflicted patients dropping every year and spiking the following one. [NBC News / Maggie Fox]

 

[Amonet]

^^^so true Amonet ^^^

I was one of the first to receive the polio sugar cube vax, as a baby in the late 50's.

And I had a much purer diet back then... Nothing could have prevented polio were it not for the vaccine.

Also back in my day there was a sequence of vaccines, one at a time. I do believe in one vaccine at a time. Why? Certain doctrines of medicine know that we fight one illness at a time. The trend towards multi vaccines is a mistake. IMO

I started insisting on one vaccine at a time instead of the 5/1 for my animals. Big difference in their reactions. It doesn't overwhelm the body.

I wonder if this virus is tick borne? The span of states makes me wonder... Some common denometer will surface...

While I don't think this case is bio war, I agree the title of this thread and discussion is needed and relevant.

I looked up the first numbered enterovirus that was listed in the article in the first post and it didn't appear to be tick-borne. The CDC page for that enterovirus did say that it has rare meningitis-like symptoms, so I think that's how it's getting into the brain stem of some patients, and then once in the brain stem it must be going further down and settling there and causing the paralysis.

And just because the symptoms are described as polio-like, that doesn't mean that it's caused by polio.

 

[ilovepierre]

If I'm not mistaken, polio is no longer vaccinated for (at least I don't think it is in my country anymore), so it's quite possible this could be polio or a polio-like virus.

I was talking to my mom a while ago and she said she wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the diseases that were eradicated because of vaccinations came back because of anti-vaxxers.

IMO

 

[Amonet]

If I'm not mistaken, polio is no longer vaccinated for (at least I don't think it is in my country anymore), so it's quite possible this could be polio or a polio-like virus.

I was talking to my mom a while ago and she said she wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the diseases that were eradicated because of vaccinations came back because of anti-vaxxers.

IMO

Something that's been eradicated through vaccination, like Smallpox, is 'eradicated' ... so they can stop vaccinating once eradication has been achieved. If there's no longer a vaccination protocol for that disease then you can't really blame anti-vaxxers if it did come back, perhaps through an unknown reservoir in wild animals.

I think I read that there are one or two countries now that are starting to get polio again. But if these cases had something to do with that, then why wouldn't it show up as polio? Why would it have these apparent associations with enteroviruses or West Nile?

For diseases like measles, yes there are sometimes outbreaks, and it's often said that not vaccinating helps those outbreaks to spread and be larger than they otherwise would be, but they have not been eradicated in the sense of the word like Smallpox was eradicated.

 

[ilovepierre]

Even if something has been eradicated, shouldn't they still be vaccinating against it though, just in case the virus mutautes somehow and returns?

Is it possible this is just a mutated polio virus and it somehow mutated and disguised itself as West Nile or an enterovirus? Or maybe the CDC is just covering up that polio has returned and doesn't want to say anything because they don't want to send everyone in a panic. But that would be a stretch, I admit.

I have very limited knowledge of how this sort of stuff works, so your input is valued

 

[Amonet]

Even if something has been eradicated, shouldn't they still be vaccinating against it though, just in case the virus mutautes somehow and returns?

Is it possible this is just a mutated polio virus and it somehow mutated and disguised itself as West Nile or an enterovirus? Or maybe the CDC is just covering up that polio has returned and doesn't want to say anything because they don't want to send everyone in a panic. But that would be a stretch, I admit.

I have very limited knowledge of how this sort of stuff works, so your input is valued

If it's globally eradicated and has no wild reservoirs there's no virus to mutate, so it can't come back and there's no need to vaccinate.

It's like if you eradicated cows on Earth, there would be no cows left to mutate into Cow mark 2.

Polio has not been globally eradicated. There are still some countries, about four, where there are still cases of polio.

I don't think it's possible for polio to mutate and disguise itself as West Nile or enterovirus...the physical shape of the virus would be different and the DNA would be different.

When the news sites say this is a polio-like disease, they're referring to the symptoms being similar to those that are caused by polio. They're not saying that the underlying virus is particularly similar to polio.

 

[ilovepierre]

Thanks, Amonet!

I just looked, and there are 3 countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria) that have not eradicated polio yet.

So this disease is polio but not polio...

 

[Amonet]

Thanks, Amonet!

I just looked, and there are 3 countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria) that have not eradicated polio yet.

So this disease is polio but not polio...

I would say the symptoms in some patients are polio-like.

The common cold can be caused by a number of different viruses, but the symptoms are alike so we just say we've got a cold.

Or a sore throat, even without knowing exactly what the cause is, we know we have a sore throat.

In this case they're talking about the symptoms being alike.

Polio's full name is poliomyelitis. That's a combination of two words, polio and myelitis.

You can get the myelitis symptoms from diseases other than polio. These people are suffering from myelitis, which does not necessarily have to be caused by polio.

This is part of the problem I see in the reporting. If they just said there were unexplained cases of myelitis, fewer people would be thinking that it must be cause by polio. So it bothers me that sometimes the tabloids spread fear more easily than they spread useful information.

 

[ilovepierre]

I would say the symptoms in some patients are polio-like.

The common cold can be caused by a number of different viruses, but the symptoms are alike so we just say we've got a cold.

Or a sore throat, even without knowing exactly what the cause is, we know we have a sore throat.

In this case they're talking about the symptoms being alike.

Polio's full name is poliomyelitis. That's a combination of two words, polio and myelitis.

You can get the myelitis symptoms from diseases other than polio. These people are suffering from myelitis, which does not necessarily have to be caused by polio.

This is part of the problem I see in the reporting. If they just said there were unexplained cases of myelitis, fewer people would be thinking that it must be cause by polio. So it bothers me that sometimes the tabloids spread fear more easily than they spread useful information.

I think that's part of the issue (the reporting). Most people have heard of polio, but not many (I assume) have heard or even know what what myelitis is. If the tabloids had just went with "unexplained cases of myelitis," people may have thought it was a new thing and freaked out. So they went with their "polio-like illness" because people know what polio is. Either way, fear would have been spread.

IMO

 

[bluesneakers]

If I'm not mistaken, polio is no longer vaccinated for (at least I don't think it is in my country anymore), so it's quite possible this could be polio or a polio-like virus.

I was talking to my mom a while ago and she said she wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the diseases that were eradicated because of vaccinations came back because of anti-vaxxers.

IMO

It's just a matter of time.

 

[Amonet]

It's just a matter of time.

I think that even aside from diseases that are vaccinated against today, there are so many diseases out there. SARS came out of nowhere. There are risks of bad mutations in flu. Who thought Ebola would spread the way it did the other year?

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

CDC investigates 4 possible cases of polio-like illness AFM in Michigan

 

[ilovepierre]

Canadian children’s hospitals report cases of rare, polio-like illness that can cause paralysis

Canada is reporting cases too.

 

[K_Z]

What would a biological attack on the U.S. look like? We have a lot of ideas about how that would unfold.

Many people envision bio agents misting out of air vents in public places, or attempts at contamination of water or food sources. Those might produce very small localized outbreaks or infections, but would have little effect other than mass hysteria.

A "real" biological attack would use human vectors in the latent, but highly infectious stage of a moderately deadly airborne infection. (Things like ebola infect and kill too rapidly to be an effective bio weapon, and require contact with the infective agent. And things like adenoviruses wouldn't reliably kill their intended victims.)

Someone or some group with malicious intent could, IMO, quite easily seed a deadly bio agent in all states, regions, and areas fairly easily by using human vectors in the latent phase. No equipment needed. No weapons needed. Just disperse the infected latent human vectors into the general population, ensuring that the human vectors are all in the same stage of latency.

Deadly agents (airborne) with an incubation phase of a few days to a week or so are ideal, as the human vectors will be long gone (dispersed or recalled by the nefarious organizers) before the newly infected victims begin showing symptoms. Thus, making it more difficult to locate infectious vectors.

Once a critical "mass" of the population are infected, it will be impossible to quarantine enough people to stop the spread. We don't have enough medical resources (or willing health care providers) to care for large swaths of the population-- and most health care workers will be rapidly infected in the first wave of victims.

Anyway, enough doom and gloom. Yes, bio warfare is definitely possible.

This is an old book, but it is a good primer on deadly infectious disease for anyone interested. (Warning-- the content may keep you up at night worrying.)

https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plagu...=1540844598&sr=8-2&keywords=the+coming+plague

Here's another very scary book:

https://www.amazon.com/Biohazard-Ch...F8&qid=1540845806&sr=8-1&keywords=bio+warfare