AMBER ALERT WI - Jayme Closs, 13, Barron, missing after parents found shot, 15 Oct 2018 *endangered* #21

[BIC]

For people asking about LE obtaining DNA from spent bullet casings, here’s a link.

It’s very difficult, but possible.

Who Loaded the Gun? Recovering DNA from Bullet Casings

Danielson believes he and McKiernan will be able to provide crime lab experts with more successful approaches to analyzing cartridges within two or three years. “I would expect that private labs will be the first to offer this to their clients,” he said, “and once people see that you can get results with a reasonable amount of success, say 75 to 80 percent on cartridges, then the higher throughput state labs will not be far behind.”

It’s been two years since this was written. Hopefully the “more successful approaches” have come to fruition.

 

[pepper 34]

After the Sheriffs comments: I am leaning toward someone they know or at least would recognize coming to the door @ 12.30....maybe they yelled, threatened & fired off a couple shots.

They went back to their car, maybe sat there for a bit or maybe even drove away & came back

When they came back up to the house & started kicking in the door - James/Denise knew it was serious & Denise was poised to call 911
Accounts for shot neighbors heard plus the commotion of a crime in progress on 911 call

Also possible Jayme was visited by her 'boyfriend' secretly & were discovered....
Or she was caught coming home after sneaking out....

Another poster said Jayme seems 'nice' etc
She can be sweet & nice & still have a 19 year old boyfriend - & even if she does have a boyfriend she can still be victimized by this man....

The question I would have here is; if they were outside my house maybe shooting and threatening me or my family I would call 911 right then and there. There would be no coming back to my house with me still inside having taken no move to protect myself and my family. The police would be there by then or (as we now know) just minutes away. So, I don't think it happened that way although your guess is as fair as any other since none of us know what happened.
ETA: I'm pretty certain I agree with the idea that the family would know who they were. I'm assuming they had those black pull down knit hats or some such disguise on but, remove the hats and they'd know them. Just a feeling with no facts to back it up. (other than criminals often try to hide their identity for obvious reasons)

 

[MassGuy]

Danielson believes he and McKiernan will be able to provide crime lab experts with more successful approaches to analyzing cartridges within two or three years. “I would expect that private labs will be the first to offer this to their clients,” he said, “and once people see that you can get results with a reasonable amount of success, say 75 to 80 percent on cartridges, then the higher throughput state labs will not be far behind.”

It’s been two years since this was written. Hopefully the “more successful approaches” have come to fruition.

Definitely. Scientific advancements tend to come quickly, especially in forensic science.

It amazes me that DNA and fingerprint evidence can survive the intense heat that is generated during gunfire, but it obviously can.

I doubt that most criminals tend to take this into account when they load a firearm.

 

[BB71]

The tests from the BCA should be available soon. Typically takes 30 days on urgent matters and six months on everyday crimes.

I'm curious if a hair strand, boot print, finger print, blood, saliva, bullet casing, cloth material, semen turn up anything. I know I listed a ton, which may or may not have taken place.

Also curious if they located the car and placed a tracker under the bumper by now. Unfortunately, tracker batteries are only good for few days, so constantly updating it is required. Shame it wasn't a GM with onstar.

Next... wonder if they needed a GPS to get to Barron? As google or Waze has analytics data to show who was in area. So must be an individual with insight to area.

No cell ping info either. Sad. So either no cell or a regular pinger in the area

Why was van backed onto yard? This part drives my brain to hurt. A possible twist to the case.

They say JC was there at time of crime. So guessing small foot prints in blood found. Which footprint size matched shoes in home or semen found on her bed and/or her cell phone lying on her bed as they have no JC phone to follow cell pings.

Back to the BCA. Fingers crossed

The red orange 2004 Chevy Monte Carlo found in OshKosh is made by GM.

Nothing backed into driveway, the mobile FBI camper parked nose first.

Chair analysts here mention an axe, but LE reported multiple rounds. Was that based on casings or amount of injury?

Sheriff reported perp(s) were believed to be there for 4 minutes and did not leave much DNA.

Could pink fuzzball on chair indicate female was sitting in chair near the time it was struck?

 

[Jabarn]

The red orange 2004 Chevy Monte Carlo found in OshKosh is made by GM.

Nothing backed into driveway, the mobile FBI camper parked nose first.

Chair analysts here mention an axe, but LE reported multiple rounds. Was that based on casings or amount of injury?

Sheriff reported perp(s) where believed to be there for 4 minutes and did not leave much DNA.

Could pink fuzzball on chair indicate female was sitting in chair near the time it was struck?
View attachment 154953

To me, and IMO, figuring out the spot of the home intrusion is important. This article IS NOT related to this at all, but wanted to share it: Police: Newton Co. homeowner shoots at man who kicked in door

The damage to the front door IS important, and would have been loud, fwiw and IMO.

 

[DancingMuse]

The question I would have here is; if they were outside my house maybe shooting and threatening me or my family I would call 911 right then and there. There would be no coming back to my house with me still inside having taken no move to protect myself and my family. The police would be there by then or (as we now know) just minutes away. So, I don't think it happened that way although your guess is as fair as any other since none of us know what happened.

Such a good point, Pepper34.
I've changed my mind one hundred times about the timeline of the crime.

It was warp-speed.
...Leaving me with so many questions.

What are the chances that the Unsub(s) were recognized by one or both Closs parents?

or, What are the chances that the Unsub(s) had a stocking over their face(s) ? ​

and, How come James (and/or) Denise had no time to arm themselves?

What are the chances that the Unsub(s) removed Jame's gun(s) before, earlier in the day? (like the Golden State Killer did so many times. )
What are the chances that the Unsub(s) took LESS than 30 seconds to kick down or otherwise get through the door? (thereby introducing the element of surprise)


I am eager to get a handle on the percentage answers to the questions above on this type of extremely violent, extremely warp-speed type of crime.
​

 

[pepper 34]

Danielson believes he and McKiernan will be able to provide crime lab experts with more successful approaches to analyzing cartridges within two or three years. “I would expect that private labs will be the first to offer this to their clients,” he said, “and once people see that you can get results with a reasonable amount of success, say 75 to 80 percent on cartridges, then the higher throughput state labs will not be far behind.”

It’s been two years since this was written. Hopefully the “more successful approaches” have come to fruition.

The only draw back with this is the criminals learn this stuff right along with everyone else. Can't be kept secret since it comes out at trials in the long run. It should cull and jail some of the really dumb criminals from the group though. According to movies I watch, many criminals already wear latex gloves to load their firearms, unfortunately... and I suppose they learned that watching the same movies.

 

[Nerissa]

Well...it's because they knew them they didn't immediately cal 911....
Imagine a family member, good friend or someone from the community you know: they are upset, shouting & maybe random shots- but, because you know them (or think you do) you give them for lack of better phrase 'benefit of the doubt'
You figure they'll calm down
You figure getting police involve may just Enflame whatever the issues are
You think you're okay.....

 

[1987]

about the rounds spent. what does multiple mean. it could be two, five, seven, fifteen, we have no idea of what the fact is. how many if more than two hit its mark. i do think LE knows and i think it gives a lot of insight to them. i feel strongly that a choice of cal and type of load and a style and pattern of fire says a lot about a persons personality and ability. for example i have a jar i keep stray ammo in and i will just get a few, any few, only being selective in that it does fit the firearm i plan to shoot. i know others that would pick threw it all to find what they wanted and if there wasn't enough of what they wanted would go buy some before shooting, and each extreme reflects part of a personality. i also know some and maybe in this case would just buy a box for a specific purpose.

 

[MassGuy]

about the rounds spent. what does multiple mean. it could be two, five, seven, fifteen, we have no idea of what the fact is. how many if more than two hit its mark. i do think LE knows and i think it gives a lot of insight to them. i feel strongly that a choice of cal and type of load and a style and pattern of fire says a lot about a persons personality and ability. for example i have a jar i keep stray ammo in and i will just get a few, any few, only being selective in that it does fit the firearm i plan to shoot. i know others that would pick threw it all to find what they wanted and if there wasn't enough of what they wanted would go buy some before shooting, and each extreme reflects part of a personality. i also know some and maybe in this case would just buy a box for a specific purpose.

They certainly know a lot more than they have said, in regards to that crime scene.

From ballistic evidence alone, they certainly know the type of weapon, how many rounds were fired, and most importantly, the minimum number of perpetrators involved in this.

They may not know the model of firearm though, and if it’s a common one, likely won’t lead them directly to the perpetrator(s).

 

[GordianKnot]

Well...it's because they knew them they didn't immediately cal 911....
Imagine a family member, good friend or someone from the community you know: they are upset, shouting & maybe random shots- but, because you know them (or think you do) you give them for lack of better phrase 'benefit of the doubt'
You figure they'll calm down
You figure getting police involve may just Enflame whatever the issues are
You think you're okay.....

BBM: Nerissa, yes! This right here. Yes. Yes. Yes.

 

[pepper 34]

Such a good point, Pepper34.
I've changed my mind one hundred times about the timeline of the crime.

It was warp-speed.
...Leaving me with so many questions.

What are the chances that the Unsub(s) were recognized by one or both Closs parents?

or, What are the chances that the Unsub(s) had a stocking over their face(s) ? ​

and, How come James (and/or) Denise had no time to arm themselves?

What are the chances that the Unsub(s) removed Jame's gun(s) before, earlier in the day? (like the Golden State Killer did so many times. )
What are the chances that the Unsub(s) took LESS than 30 seconds to kick down or otherwise get through the door? (thereby introducing the element of surprise)


I am eager to get a handle on the percentage answers to the questions above on this type of extremely violent, extremely warp-speed type of crime.
​

I'm a bad one to ask. Every time we learn a tiny something new I come up with an entirely new sequence of events along with motivation but never the "who." I do think one thing though, that I feel for sure happened. I'm sure that James came towards the front door to investigate a suspicious sound or to answer a knock and when the killer heard James near the door or saw the outside lights go on, he broke the door down. He shot James from outside; through the door or immediately once the door was broken and James had fallen backwards to the floor. The "I'm sure" part is; I think it happened just that fast with no chance for James to do a thing to stop it. I imagine Jayme hiding... Denise getting or having her phone and calling 911 right then and there. One guy finds and takes Jayme, unwillingly, to the car to wait while the other kills Denise. I have no solid ideas about who could have done this. I can think of many motivations but none of them come to the top of the list and stay there because our factual, verifiable knowledge is so sparse. They were able to leave so quickly before LE arrived because Jayme was already in the car while Denise was being killed. JMO.

 

[1987]

They certainly know a lot more than they have said, in regards to that crime scene.

From ballistic evidence alone, they certainly know the type of weapon, how many rounds were fired, and most importantly, the minimum number of perpetrators involved in this.

They may not know the model of firearm though, and if it’s a common one, likely won’t lead them directly to the perpetrator(s).

i agree. if there is, and we don't know, five shots and four different types of ammo from same cal gun then it might point to a less planned or less have to have in order type personality, i also know if it all matches it does not say it for sure was planned.

 

[rosesfromangels]

Well...it's because they knew them they didn't immediately cal 911....
Imagine a family member, good friend or someone from the community you know: they are upset, shouting & maybe random shots- but, because you know them (or think you do) you give them for lack of better phrase 'benefit of the doubt'
You figure they'll calm down
You figure getting police involve may just Enflame whatever the issues are
You think you're okay.....

Or you are caught off guard, in shock and disbelief and you freeze. I would think a gun pointed at you might have that effect. I think it all went down so fast they didn’t have much time to react. However, we do know one brave soul dialed 911. God Bless them.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[JRW]

The question I would have here is; if they were outside my house maybe shooting and threatening me or my family I would call 911 right then and there. There would be no coming back to my house with me still inside having taken no move to protect myself and my family. The police would be there by then or (as we now know) just minutes away. So, I don't think it happened that way although your guess is as fair as any other since none of us know what happened.
ETA: I'm pretty certain I agree with the idea that the family would know who they were. I'm assuming they had those black pull down knit hats or some such disguise on but, remove the hats and they'd know them. Just a feeling with no facts to back it up. (other than criminals often try to hide their identity for obvious reasons)

In my opinion I think it was someone the family definately recognized... not necessarily someone extremely close but someone they recognized...

 

[pepper 34]

Well...it's because they knew them they didn't immediately cal 911....
Imagine a family member, good friend or someone from the community you know: they are upset, shouting & maybe random shots- but, because you know them (or think you do) you give them for lack of better phrase 'benefit of the doubt'
You figure they'll calm down
You figure getting police involve may just Enflame whatever the issues are
You think you're okay.....

I did think it happened that way at one time. In fact, it was while I was trying to fill in the "extra 20 minutes" provided by the neighbor's account of the gun shots. I had them all involved in a "discussion." But, I rejected it for these reasons:
Say YOU are one of the killers (just try)
1) How do you know I haven't texted someone about what you've been doing outside my house?
2) How do you know I haven't called LE to report what happened?
3) How do you know I haven't called someone in my family to discuss this. Yes, it's late but say I know my sister will be awake.
How can you take the chance and come back to kill me and my family or, since I know you, I already suspect you'll take Jayme...
You don't know what I've done while you were gone. If the morning comes and two of us are dead and daughter gone.... it all leads straight to you.
ETA: Also, I think they knew them but I think they didn't like whoever it was. Whoever it was, was not welcome at any time at their house, imo.

 

[cluciano63]

But if James was shot as soon as the perp heard him coming to the door...did he wait to make sure it WAS James? And not Jayme, if she was his motive? It must have all been very quick. Did he kick in door and shoot almost simultaneously?

Or did a visitor leave the house to get gun from car, James tried to lock up in the meantime, thus the door kicking?

 

[Nerissa]

If Jayme was either sneaking out to meet her boyfriend or sneaking back in & caught ...
& said boyfriend is mentally unstable:
I could see him doing what he did with zero rational thought whatsoever

 

[GordianKnot]

LE doesn't have a working theory. What about us here on WS. Do we?
Can we try to advance a few working theories and see how they stand up to logical scrutiny?
I have a few thoughts:
IMO, this evil creep was someone known to at least one of the Closs family members.
IMO, James and Denise were the intended targets/victims.
IMO, Jayme was the motive for the crimes.
IMO, the evil creep is a lone adult male who had some type of inappropriate relationship with Jayme that came to light somehow and there was a confrontation that escalated/came to a head at the house that night.

That's just my working theory as of right now...it might change tomorrow.
Please feel free to scrutinize, hold it up to the light for inspection, fact-check, point out flaws in my logic, etc. I would really like to hear everyone else's theories based on what we know so far...there are a lot of great minds on this thread, with many individual members having a lot of specific knowledge in a wide range of areas. What's everyone thinking?

 

[pepper 34]

But if James was shot as soon as the perp heard him coming to the door...did he wait to make sure it WAS James? And not Jayme, if she was his motive? It must have all been very quick. Did he kick in door and shoot almost simultaneously?

Or did a visitor leave the house to get gun from car, James tried to lock up in the meantime, thus the door kicking?

Wasn't there a window in that front door? IIRC there was and might be someone could see him approach the door. James also could have asked who was there. I think the killer already had the gun because he planned to use it. I think the other guy was at the door, too, and held the screen door back out of the way while #1 kicked it in. I do think it happened extremely quickly. It's just my opinion but I'm open to any other scenarios. There's a countless number of ways it could have happened. I'm just trying to work with the sheriff's statement about the time element involved.