CA - Joey, Summer, Gianni, Joseph Jr McStay Murders - Feb 4th 2010

[HelenK]

I read "Staff Online" as Darling136, and Tricia -

 

[missy1974]

Actually, he was on top of her list.

That's what I thought...

 

[Timekeeper65]

I am quite fascinated by your post - and I should warn you I have a thing for circumstantial evidence!

I wonder what you make of the following questions

1. Do you believe that it will be proven to evidential standard that it was CM who entered the deleted cheques in Quickbooks?
2. Do you believe that it will be proven to evidential standard that CM backdated the cheques to 4 Feb?
3. Do you believe that it will be proven to evidential standard that CM was the one who created a deleted cheque from a computer at the McStay house?

Remember these are only factual inferences a jury must make. Each individual item need not be proven to BARD standard.

Assuming the answer to the questions is yes - do you agree a jury properly instructed might make the following factual inferences? Again it is not required to BARD standard on each point. A jury instead may make natural and obvious inferences on each point.

1. The deleted cheques of 2 feb were the first fraudulent activity - only 48hrs prior to the disappearance. From this a jury may infer a contemporaneous motive.
2. Backdating to 4 february demonstrates knowledge of what day the McStays were murdered. If CM is innocent of murder, why do this? The cheques of 2 and 3 Feb are not backdated. But if you know that the McStays have been murdered, you know that a cheque dated after 4 february will ring alarm bells.
3. The call to Quickbooks from CM's phone fraudulently impersonating McStay asking to delete all data implies knowledge McStay is dead. McStay is not yet seriously missing. Deleting Quickbooks would be insanely dumb if McStay were to come home two days later and discover this! It implies an attempt to cover tracks not from McStay but from investigators, before McStay is even seriously missed.
4. The creation of cashing of fraudulent cheques by CM before the deaths provides a motive for murder
5. The quickbooks & phone log activity of J McStay to his bank and CM after the cashing of the cheques supports the inference he discovered the fraud.
6. CM makes 13 "frantic" phonecalls in 9 minutes following the last call from J McStay. This implies an urgent problem for CM.
7. The creation of the deleted cheque from McStay's house at 7.56 pm invalidates CM's story about how he discovered the McStays were missing and a jury may correctly infer the only logical conclusion is that it places him at the crime scene at the time of the disappearance before anyone knew they were missing. Indeed if we put aside speculation, only the murderer can have created this cheque.

In handling circumstantial evidence, we shall first ask ourselves what facts are proven, and then from those facts, what logical inferences can be drawn.

In my opinion, the evidentially sound inference is that the person who created the deleted the cheques is the murderer.

So then we step back and say, having regard to the total web of circumstantial evidence, is there any reasonable doubt about that?

In my opinion not.

Given CM was caught redhanded with the cheques (in his own name) - that means CM is the murderer.

Oh WOW. Perfectly stated. And I totally agree.

 

[HelenK]

As this is a forum, and not a court of law.
I am going to share my opinion.
It is my opinion, that Chase Merritt, alone, horrendously murdered Joey, Summer and their two baby boys.
It is also my opinion, that he tortured both Joey and Summer whilst committing this horror on this good family.
There is no reasonable "Why".
None of us who live a kind life can ever understand it.
Chase Merritt is not the first devil to proceed with evil. Nor, unfortunately, will he be the last.
Beating those little boys to death. Torturing Joey and Summer.
There is no greator evil.
In my opinion, Detective Dugal and the San Diego law enforcement did a great dis-service to Joey's and Summer's family.

I absolutely concur with what you say. As to the SDPD, please read the following (it's not long). It does not absolve that entity, but sheds some light on what happened so many years ago -

Year Later, CA Family's Disappearance Is A Mystery

 

[mrjitty]

I absolutely concur with what you say. As to the SDPD, please read the following (it's not long). It does not absolve that entity, but sheds some light on what happened so many years ago -

Year Later, CA Family's Disappearance Is A Mystery

No Detective or PD wants to catch a quadruple homicide with no bodies

"missing persons" is convenient.

See for example the McCann case where "missing persons" enabled the Portuguese State to kick the case into the long grass and avoid making a definitive finding that any specific crime had been committed.

 

[mrjitty]

X of DuGal

I get the defences point about the lack of preservation of the crime scene and of course they should run with this.

DuGal made good points that he had no legal right to take control of the house or tell a lawful occupier what to do whilst there was no clear evidence a crime had been committed.

I do wonder if this all builds towards trying to attack some cogent evidence that has been discovered.

Be interesting to know what that is.

I still feel this is all a red herring.

Whomever did the murders killed the family in the house (or elsewhere). the how is not so important, because we know it happened.

Wonder how tight the prosecution will stick to the murder was at the house theory

 

[Unique]

It hasn’t yet been clarified but I believe that there were two QB accounts an older one on the home computer with no internet access and a new cloud version probably set up by DK. I arrived at this conclusion from what was said durning CM’s conversation with the QB support guy and CM’s request to obtain the cloud data so it could be used on the PC desk top version of QB. I once had a dual QB setup and that’s exactly how I did it.

My understanding from the prelim in June 2015

JM had two online QB accounts with separate email address, these accounts were stored online with QB

The EIP account was created in September 2004
This was JM main account
“Charles Merritt” vendor account was on this account
JM always paid CM from this account

The Custom EIP account was created in January 2008
From January 2008 until February 1st 2010, no checks were written on this account
All checks during that time period were listed on the EIP account
On February 1st 2010 “charles merritt” vendor was created and checks started to be raised
This did not happen from either of the McStay desktop or the laptop

 

[oceanblueeyes]

X of DuGal

I get the defences point about the lack of preservation of the crime scene and of course they should run with this.

DuGal made good points that he had no legal right to take control of the house or tell a lawful occupier what to do whilst there was no clear evidence a crime had been committed.

I do wonder if this all builds towards trying to attack some cogent evidence that has been discovered.

Be interesting to know what that is.

I still feel this is all a red herring.

Whomever did the murders killed the family in the house (or elsewhere). the how is not so important, because we know it happened.

Wonder how tight the prosecution will stick to the murder was at the house theory

Mrjitty I'm considered an outsider in this case because even though I read the McStay discussion forums from time to time I did not partake in the years of discussions like so many of our dedicated fellow posters did.

Sometime I do that purposefully on years long unsolved cases as it allows me to take only the trial evidence into consideration should the case be solved resulting in a trial of the arrested suspect at a later date.

I always felt this case was solvable. It pains me that for many wasted years this family had been declared willingly missing.

Every piece of circumstances surrounding the disappearance screamed otherwise!

I've seen you post clearly about the weight of circumstantial evidence and what it clearly shows in this case. CE is powerful evidence and carries much legal weight in our court system.

As a juror every case I sat on had undeniable CE throughout each one. I much prefer CE cases rather than relying on direct evidence since quite often direct eye witness testimony can be faulty.

Imo thus far the prosecution has already entered CE that cannot be ignored nor will they imo.

As they continue to present more and more CE against CM the jury will give each one the weight they think it deserves when they begin to deliberate.

Sooner or later they are either going to see all of this CE points to the defendant as the one guilty as charged or they all have to believe ALL of these overwhelming CE facts are nothing more than mere coincidences!

As a prior juror I have found my fellow jurors along with myself did not believe in mere coincidences in murder cases.

At some point in time during the trials there were simply too many damaging pieces of CE to be considered as only coincidences.

I believe this is what will happen in CMs trial as well. The defense may be able to possibly explain some of them away. However as you have posted..the jury doesnt have to believe every piece of CE entered to come to a Guilty verdict.

CE is like putting a puzzle together...piece by piece. It's not required that every puzzle piece must be there but enough were the image of CM can be seen.

Imo the entire circumstances known thus far surrounding the McStay murders and CM shows that only he could have done this and no one else.

Imo as it progresses in the next few months it will only worsen for CM and his defense as the CE begins to pile up higher and higher.

I'm glad to read Patrick always had suspicions about CM as the one who had harmed his family. So did I and felt if it was ever solved CM would be the one arrested and charged.

I have thoroughly enjoyed reading all of your logical and very informative posts. Thank you.

Jmo

 

[mrjitty]

My understanding from the prelim in June 2015

JM had two online QB accounts with separate email address, these accounts were stored online with QB

The EIP account was created in September 2004
This was JM main account
“Charles Merritt” vendor account was on this account
JM always paid CM from this account

The Custom EIP account was created in January 2008
From January 2008 until February 1st 2010, no checks were written on this account
All checks during that time period were listed on the EIP account
On February 1st 2010 “charles merritt” vendor was created and checks started to be raised
This did not happen from either of the McStay desktop or the laptop

Thanks for this info.

It seems certain it was CM who created the cheque at 7.59pm on the 4th

 

[mrjitty]

Mrjitty I'm considered an outsider in this case because even though I read the McStay discussion forums from time to time I did not partake in the years of discussions like so many of our dedicated fellow posters did.

Sometime I do that purposefully on years long unsolved cases as it allows me to take only the trial evidence into consideration should the case be solved resulting in a trial of the arrested suspect at a later date.

I always felt this case was solvable. It pains me that for many wasted years this family had been declared willingly missing.

Every piece of circumstances surrounding the disappearance screamed otherwise!

I've seen you post clearly about the weight of circumstantial evidence and what it clearly shows in this case. CE is powerful evidence and carries much legal weight in our court system.

As a juror every case I sat on had undeniable CE throughout each one. I much prefer CE cases rather than relying on direct evidence since quite often direct eye witness testimony can be faulty.

Imo thus far the prosecution has already entered CE that cannot be ignored nor will they imo.

As they continue to present more and more CE against CM the jury will give each one the weight they think it deserves when they begin to deliberate.

Sooner or later they are either going to see all of this CE points to the defendant as the one guilty as charged or they all have to believe ALL of these overwhelming CE facts are nothing more than mere coincidences!

As a prior juror I have found my fellow jurors along with myself did not believe in mere coincidences in murder cases.

At some point in time during the trials there were simply too many damaging pieces of CE to be considered as only coincidences.

I believe this is what will happen in CMs trial as well. The defense may be able to possibly explain some of them away. However as you have posted..the jury doesnt have to believe every piece of CE entered to come to a Guilty verdict.

CE is like putting a puzzle together...piece by piece. It's not required that every puzzle piece must be there but enough were the image of CM can be seen.

Imo the entire circumstances known thus far surrounding the McStay murders and CM shows that only he could have done this and no one else.

Imo as it progresses in the next few months it will only worsen for CM and his defense as the CE begins to pile up higher and higher.

I'm glad to read Patrick always had suspicions about CM as the one who had harmed his family. So did I and felt if it was ever solved CM would be the one arrested and charged.

I have thoroughly enjoyed reading all of your logical and very informative posts. Thank you.

Jmo

I am glad to hear you think jurors don't believe in coincidences!

I agree with you it's like a jigsaw. Everything points towards CM creating that cheque at 7.59pm on the 4th, and he gave the police a false alibi for that time. The only sensible conclusion is he was at the crime scene

What worries me in this case is jurors failing to confront the evidence and being afraid to draw obvious and logical conclusions.

or worse they get bamboozled by wild defence speculation!

but you can already see how this is going. the crime scene was not preserved, therefore someone else must be the murderer!

completely illogical.

 

[asyousay]

I still want to see concrete proof of why they believe the family was murdered in the home as I still think Joey could of been incapacitated by 3pm-ish.

That would explain why Joey never picked up the phone for Summer when she called. Because Chase had the phone not Joey.

 

[Tortoise]

but you can already see how this is going. the crime scene was not preserved, therefore someone else must be the murderer!

completely illogical.

It is! Because the same would apply whoever did it.

I think I may even be quoting you here from some case or other we have followed together, but I know I have read before that circumstantial evidence is the prosecutor's dream because it doesn't lie, whereas direct witnesses can, and also are known to be unreliable and fallible.

 

[mrjitty]

I guess apart from the blood spatter on the table and the bleached carpet, the most interesting thing from DuGal was the black light left on the kitchen counter.

Someone did clean up.

I've been wondering if the murderer, having immobilised JM, made the mcstays get under work blankets or throws. something like that would stop any spatter.

I have been using some of these for DIY and they are super tough - people also use them in moving vans.

I set one on fire by accident and it still doesn't have a hole in it.

 

[mrjitty]

It is! Because the same would apply whoever did it.

I think I may even be quoting you here from some case or other we have followed together, but I know I have read before that circumstantial evidence is the prosecutor's dream because it doesn't lie, whereas direct witnesses can, and also are known to be unreliable and fallible.

The book Math on Trial is quite fascinating on this subject. I got to discuss circumstantial evidence with the author on an Amanda Knox forum.

In essence, multiple circumstantial points can create a strong probability of guilt. This is why speculating away data points one by one is so dangerous. Like the Pistorius trial, you end up with a dozen or more unlikely explanations for specific evidence, and the big picture is completely missed.

The trouble is, most humans are bad at evaluating probability and logical fallacies are common, even from Judges.

 

[Tortoise]

I guess apart from the blood spatter on the table and the bleached carpet, the most interesting thing from DuGal was the black light left on the kitchen counter.

Someone did clean up.

I've been wondering if the murderer, having immobilised JM, made the mcstays get under work blankets or throws. something like that would stop any spatter.

I have been using some of these for DIY and they are super tough - people also use them in moving vans.

I set one on fire by accident and it still doesn't have a hole in it.

Or made them get in the bathroom which would make for an easier clean up. I think they pointed out the lack of a shaggy floor mat in the bathroom in the earliest photographs. I wonder if any of the cloth items found in the graves tested positive for blood stains, or had staining on them even if they weren't tested.

 

[JerseyGirl]

we've reached the limit on this thread. I have created a Thread #2, please continue here:

CA - Joey, Summer, Gianni, Joseph Jr McStay Murders - Feb 4th 2010 #2