So it seems that once again the bogeymen in all of this are in fact our wonderful media.
I'm thinking in view of that, if charges are brought against this bloke with reference to Libby, his defence lawyers will be looking at all of this online discussion and trawling it for examples of him not being likely to get a fair trial. Not so much this forum, which is by and large very measured and controlled, but there is a definite lunatic fringe out there on Facebook.
I noticed it when that young lass went missing in New Addington (to the shame of me, I now can't remember her name, but I'm old and feeble-witted these days) It turns out one of her relatives had killed her and hidden her body in the loft. I made the big mistake of simply pointing out on one of the groups on FB that posting things which implied he was definitely guilty was actually likely to enable him getting off, and you wouldn't believe the abuse I got ... "why are you defending him... you must be a paedophile as well... etc etc. " Apart come from convincing me that there should be an exam whereby people have to prove they know the difference between "their", "there" and "they're" before they are allowed a Facebook account, it also taught me to save my breath to cool my porridge, as my Granny used to say.
In the meantime, I've been having another one of my well-known talks with myself in an effort to get my ducks in a row about this case and I have come up with:
Theory 1
She was inveigled into his car under a pretext, sexually assaulted, which then turned bad and she ended up being killed. He then disposed of her body into the River Hull at ORPF. Likely outcome if proven, manslaughter.
Factors in favour of this explanation: - it is the simplest, and therefore usually the most likely. (Occam’s razor) It may tie in with the screams which were heard.
Factors against: could the body really have travelled all the way down the River Hull and into the Humber without being seen?
Theory 2
She was inveigled into his car under a pretext, sexually assaulted, which then turned bad and she ended up being killed. He then disposed of her body directly into the River Humber. Likely outcome if proven, manslaughter.
Factors in favour of this explanation: it would remove the possibility of the body being found too soon
Factors against: paucity of suitable locations along the waterfront with deep water close enough inshore. Paull has been suggested as an option for this – a “body” was seen in the Humber off Paull, but proved inconclusive. Also would have involved transporting the body across town (risky) and would have needed prior knowledge of the location.
Theory 3
She was inveigled into his car under a pretext, sexually assaulted, which then turned bad and she escaped, only to meet with someone else who also did her harm and killed her at an unknown location and disposed of her body either into the Hull or the Humber at an unknown location. Factors against: - what are the chances of two sexual predators in more or less the same location at the same time?
Theory 4.
She was inveigled into his car under a pretext, sexually assaulted, which then turned bad but she escaped, but somehow fell into the River Hull at ORPF. Under this theory, as with theory 1, there is the issue of the body having to travel all the way downstream though Hull and into the Humber. This could also tie in with the screams, though, if she was trying to summon help. Not a good thought.
Theories 1, 2, and 3 each have a variant option to them where the perpetrator stores the body for a short while, then retrieves it and disposes of it. If it was the person the police currently have in custody under unrelated charges then it would have to have been within a 5 day time window. Given the frenzy of police activity which blanketed the area following Libby’s disappearance it would have been problematic or someone to conceal and retrieve a body in that immediate area. Not so with theory 3.
I don't know why I have become so involved with this stuff. I think it's something to do with being from Hull and not wanting to think of this sort of thing happening in Hull. My Hull, of fond memory. A city where you could wander home along Hessle Road eating pattie and chips after a night in The Old Black Boy and live to fight another day. Anyhoo, real life is going to get in the way for the next few days so I'll just have to try and keep up whenever I can.
Edit* I looked it up... she was called Tia Sharp